scholarly journals Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1669-1680 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Archer ◽  
N. Forsythe ◽  
H. J. Fowler ◽  
S. M. Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Environmental Remediation ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

scholarly journals Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1883-1912 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Archer ◽  
N. Forsythe ◽  
H. J. Fowler ◽  
S. M. Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Environmental Remediation ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

scholarly journals Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream availability in the transboundary Indus basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter J. Smolenaars ◽  
Sanita Dhaubanjar ◽  
Muhammad K. Jamil ◽  
Arthur Lutz ◽  
Walter Immerzeel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Relative Pressure ◽  
Steep Decline ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The densely populated plains of the lower Indus basin largely depend on water resources originating in the mountains of the upper Indus basin. Although recent studies have improved our understanding of this upstream-downstream linkage and the impact of climate change, water use in the mountainous part of the Indus has been largely ignored. This study quantifies the comparative impact of upper Indus water usage on downstream water availability under future climate change and socio-economic development. Future water consumption and relative pressure on water resources vary greatly between upper Indus sub-basins and seasons. During the dry season, the share of surface water required within the upper Indus is high and increasing, and in some sub-basins future water requirements exceed availability during the critical winter months. In the lower Indus this causes spatiotemporal hotspots to emerge where seasonal water availability is reduced by over 25 % compared to natural conditions. This plays an important, but previously not accounted for, compounding role in the steep decline of per capita seasonal water availability in the lower Indus in the future due to downstream population growth. Increasing consumption in the upper Indus may thus locally lead to water scarcity issues, and increasingly be a driver of downstream water stress during the dry season. The quantified perspective on the evolving upstream-downstream linkages of the transboundary Indus basin, provided in this study, highlights that long-term water management here must account for rapid socio-economic change in the upper Indus and anticipate increasing upstream-downstream water competition between riparian states.

scholarly journals The climate changes in the sub-basin of the Oum Er rbia central and the impact on the surface waters.

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 03003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhour Echakraoui ◽  
Ahmed. Boukdir ◽  
Olaide. Aderoju ◽  
El Hassan Ben – Saïd ◽  
Abdelhamid. Zitouni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
The Body ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
List Type ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Observations and model results indicate that climate trends in North Africa show both drying and warming over the past few decades, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. During the last decades, due to changes in climatic and environmental conditions, water resources available in Morocco are decreasing. They are, moreover, subject to extreme cyclical variations and to soaring water demands because of rapid population growth, improvement of living standards, industrial development and expansion of irrigated agriculture. The pressure on these water resources is accompanied by a growing and increasingly serious degradation of their quality. This is found at the level of average of air temperatures that are continuously growing and at the level of precipitation with an average potential of water in the area with a significant decrease in the last forty years. The purpose of this work is to make a study on the impact of climate change on water resources that exist in the basin of the Oum Er Rbia Central, and to give justifiable results regarding the evolution of climate change over time. From the created database, we brought out diagrams, curves and maps of the evolution of climate change that show the results below: The study of the evolution of rainfall recorded since 1934 and the breaks in time series highlighted two methodologically distinct periods: a wet period with high rainfall (1986 - 1971), a dry season and low rainfall (1970/71 to 2007). Observed climatic trends, calculated over the period of 1935-2007 and reported in the study, indicate the following: On an annual basis, changes in precipitation were not significant and varied from one region to another. On the other hand, spring rainfall declined significantly in the northern part of Morocco at a rate of 0.5 mm / day per decade; That the area experienced an average annual rainfall reduction of 70 mm (20%) over this period compared to 1940-1980. The area is a hydraulic region that is already experiencing a water deficit. The sharp decline in water supplies since 1980-2007 (by 40% compared with 1940- 1980) and the increase in demand and water degradation by different causes; The annual average flows measured at the the central Oum Er Rbia stations were reduced by considerable hydrological deficits ranging between 40.8 and 49.5%. Global warming and rainfall regression are added to the intrinsic conditions of sub basins of the Oum Er Rbia Central (especially waterproofing of land and the lack of groundwater reservoir) to increase its vulnerability to water scarcity. This critical situation requires adapting good management methods of meteorological water as the only source of water in this basin.You should leave 8 mm of space above the abstract and 10 mm after the abstract. The heading Abstract should be typed in bold 9- point Arial. The body of the abstract should be typed in normal 9-point Times in a single paragraph, immediately following the heading. The text should be set to 1 line spacing. The abstract should be centred across the page, indented 17 mm from the left and right page margins and justified. It should not normally exceed 200 words.

scholarly journals Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu-Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 3717-3748 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Wiltshire
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Accumulated Degree Days

Abstract. The Hindu-Kush, Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate may influence the mass balance across the HKKH. We use high resolution climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated degree days for the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions, and East Nepal and Bhutan. In our analysis we focus on the climate drivers of change rather than the glaciological response. We find a complex regional response to climate change, with possible increases in snowfall over the western HKKH and decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions. Overall, the eastern Himalayan glaciers are expected to be most sensitive to climate change due to the decreases in snowfall and increased ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore projected to decline over the 21st century despite increasing precipitation. The western glaciers are expected to decline at a slower rate over the 21st century as a response to unmitigated climate compared to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, the glacier response depends on important glaciological factors, such as the extent of debris cover, which may be of critical importance in moderating the response to climatic change. Decadal variability has a large effect highlighting the need for long-term observation records to fully understand the impact of climate on the glaciers of the HKKH cryosphere. Spatial variability in projected snowfall patterns are likely to be a key driver of glacier mass balance over the 21st century. Importantly, the regional trends in snowfall do not necessarily follow the trends in precipitation. A key change in the HKKH cryosphere is a switch from snowfall to rainfall in the eastern Himalaya. Although glacial mass balance is likely to be sensitive to climate change, as overall precipitation is projected to increase this may lead to an overall increase in water resources. In the west, projections suggest that glacial mass balance could respond less to climate change than those in the east. However, projection uncertainty covers a small increase to a decrease in precipitation for the western HKKH and Indus basin and as a result the water resources of the highly populated Indus region may be more vulnerable to unmitigated climate change.

Integrating Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios in a Hydrological Model for the Santa River Basin, Peru

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Teutsch ◽  
Faizan Anwar ◽  
Jochen Seidel ◽  
András Bárdossy ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Study Region ◽  
River Catchment

<p>High mountain regions, like the Andes, face various risks due to climate change. In the Santa River catchment in Peru which includes the glaciated Cordillera Blanca, water availability is threatened by many climatic and non-climatic impacts. The water resources in the catchment heavily rely on seasonal precipitation and during the dry season glacier melt water plays an important role. However, both, precipitation patterns and glacier extent are affected by climate change impacts. Additionally, socio-economic changes put further pressure on water resources and hence on water availability.</p> <p>Within the AguaFuturo Project we established a conceptual integrated water balance model based on a semi-distributed HBV model for the data scarce Santa River catchment. The hydrological model processes are extended by feedback loops for agricultural and domestic water use. The model runs on daily time scale and includes two hydrological response units. One includes the irrigated agricultural areas which are predominately located in the valley of the catchment; the other includes non-irrigated areas and domestic water use.</p> <p>To assess future water balance challenges we downscaled and disaggregated monthly CORDEX scenarios for 2020-2050 using information from the new Peruvian precipitation dataset PISCO (Peruvian Interpolated data of the SENAMHI’s Climatological and hydrological Observations) for simulations of future changes in hydro-climatology. In the model, these climate scenarios are combined with possible socio-economic scenarios which are translated into time series for domestic and agricultural water demand. The socio-economic scenarios are developed by using the Cross-Impact-Balance-Analysis (CIB), a method used for analyzing impact networks. Using CIB, the interrelations between 15 social, economic and policy descriptors were analyzed and as a result a total of 29 possible consistent scenarios were determined. For further analysis and validation of these scenarios a participatory process was included, involving local experts and stakeholders of the study region.</p> <p>The climate and socio-economic scenarios are independent and can be combined randomly. The uncertainties of the climatic and socio-economic scenarios are quantified by Monte Carlo simulations.</p> <p>The output of the model runs is an ensemble of possible future discharges of the Santa River, which can be further analyzed statistically to assess the range of the possible discharges. This evaluation provides an estimate of the probability of water shortages, especially with regard to conflict potential with hydropower production and the large scale irrigated agriculture areas in the adjacent coastal desert which also rely on water from the Santa River.</p>

scholarly journals Participatory Modelling of Surface and Groundwater to Support Strategic Planning in the Ganga Basin in India

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnix van der Vat ◽  
Pascal Boderie ◽  
Kees Bons ◽  
Mark Hegnauer ◽  
Gerrit Hendriksen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Ganga Basin ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface And Groundwater

The Ganga Basin in India experiences problems related to water availability, water quality and ecological degradation because of over-abstraction of surface and groundwater, the presence of various hydraulic infrastructure, discharge of untreated sewage water, and other point and non-point source pollution. The basin is experiencing rapid socio-economic development that will increase both the demand for water and pollution load. Climate change adds to the uncertainty and future variability of water availability. To support strategic planning for the Ganga Basin by the Indian Ministry of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation and the governments of the concerned Indian states, a river basin model was developed that integrates hydrology, geohydrology, water resources management, water quality and ecology. The model was developed with the involvement of key basin stakeholders across central and state governments. No previous models of the Ganga Basin integrate all these aspects, and this is the first time that a participatory approach was applied for the development of a Ganga Basin model. The model was applied to assess the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios and management strategies. The results suggest that the impact of socio-economic development will far exceed the impacts of climate change. To balance the use of surface and groundwater to support sustained economic growth and an ecologically healthy river, it is necessary to combine investments in wastewater treatment and reservoir capacity with interventions that reduce water demand, especially for irrigation, and that increase dry season river flow. An important option for further investigation is the greater use of alluvial aquifers for temporary water storage.

scholarly journals The Indus basin in the framework of current and future water resources management

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1063-1083 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. N. Laghari ◽  
D. Vanham ◽  
W. Rauch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Supply Management ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Water Supply Management

Abstract. The Indus basin is one of the regions in the world that is faced with major challenges for its water sector, due to population growth, rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, environmental degradation, unregulated utilization of the resources, inefficient water use and poverty, all aggravated by climate change. The Indus Basin is shared by 4 countries – Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China. With a current population of 237 million people which is projected to increase to 319 million in 2025 and 383 million in 2050, already today water resources are abstracted almost entirely (more than 95% for irrigation). Climate change will result in increased water availability in the short term. However in the long term water availability will decrease. Some current aspects in the basin need to be re-evaluated. During the past decades water abstractions – and especially groundwater extractions – have augmented continuously to support a rice-wheat system where rice is grown during the kharif (wet, summer) season (as well as sugar cane, cotton, maize and other crops) and wheat during the rabi (dry, winter) season. However, the sustainability of this system in its current form is questionable. Additional water for domestic and industrial purposes is required for the future and should be made available by a reduction in irrigation requirements. This paper gives a comprehensive listing and description of available options for current and future sustainable water resources management (WRM) within the basin. Sustainable WRM practices include both water supply management and water demand management options. Water supply management options include: (1) reservoir management as the basin is characterised by a strong seasonal behaviour in water availability (monsoon and meltwater) and water demands; (2) water quality conservation and investment in wastewater infrastructure; (3) the use of alternative water resources like the recycling of wastewater and desalination; (4) land use planning and soil conservation as well as flood management, with a focus on the reduction of erosion and resulting sedimentation as well as the restoration of ecosystem services like wetlands and natural floodplains. Water demand management options include: (1) the management of conjunctive use of surface and groundwater; as well as (2) the rehabilitation and modernization of existing infrastructure. Other demand management options are: (3) the increase of water productivity for agriculture; (4) crop planning and diversification including the critical assessment of agricultural export, especially (basmati) rice; (5) economic instruments and (6) changing food demand patterns and limiting post-harvest losses.

scholarly journals Scenarios of climate change effects in water availability within the patos Lagoon’s Basin

RBRH ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raíza Cristóvão Schuster ◽  
Fernando Mainardi Fan ◽  
Walter Collischonn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Patos Lagoon ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT The decision-making processes involving water resources in Brazil and in neighboring countries have been based solely on analyses of the historical behavior of hydroclimatological variables. However, this may lead to inappropriate strategies in regards to the use of natural resources, since the impact of future climate change may significantly affect the availability of water resources. This study proposes an analysis of the variation in water availability of basins within the Patos Lagoon contribution area, which may be a consequence of climatic changes predicted by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, published in the most recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Two 30-year periods were simulated, from 2006 to 2035 and from 2051 to 2080, through the MGB-IPH hydrological model, considering two extreme greenhouse gas scenarios and twenty climate change models. A tendency of increase of the flows was verified in the simulated basin, since over 60% of the simulations indicated some percentage of average flow increase across all discretized modeling units. The analysis of the simulation results indicated that the data from climatic models HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 used as input in the hydrological model are the ones that respectively provide upper and lower flow thresholds for the ensembled simulations. A joint evaluation of the results generated by these two models, associated with the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, is capable of covering extreme flow scenarios making predictions considering climate change in the Patos Lagoon’s basin. Whereas the results provided by bcc-csm1, BNU-ESM and CNRM-CM5 are similar to the median of the ensemble of simulations generated by all models evaluated in this research. In addition, the northernmost region of the study area was identified as having the highest sensitivity to climate change, as projected by global models of CMIP5 published in AR5.

scholarly journals SIMULAÇÃO HIDROLÓGICA FERRAMENTA PARA GESTÃO DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS EM FUNÇÃO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA BACIA DO RIO RIACHÃO, MG, BRASIL

Nativa ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 718
Author(s):  
Rafael Alexandre Sá ◽  
Marcos Koiti Kondo ◽  
Edson De Oliveira Vieira ◽  
Silvânio Rodrigues Dos Santos ◽  
Nayara Paula Andrade Vieira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
The Impact

A simulação hidrológica de bacias hidrográficas tem se tornado uma ferramenta importante de planejamento e gestão de recursos hídricos, projetando-se inclusive a disponibilidade hídrica a partir das mudanças climáticas. Dessa forma, objetivou-se avaliar a eficiência do modelo hidrológico SWAT na simulação da vazão da bacia hidrográfica do rio Riachão, no Norte de Minas Gerais, sob impacto de cenários alternativos de elevação da temperatura média do ar. O modelo SWAT foi ajustado para o período de 01/01/2008 a 31/12/2014 e calibrado com os dados das vazões hidrometradas obtendo valores do coeficiente de eficiência Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) de 0,74 e 0,79 e tendência percentual (PBIAS) 15,45% e 16,72%, nas fases de calibração e validação, respectivamente. A disponibilidade de água superficial da bacia hidrográfica para comparação dos cenários foi calculada por meio da curva de permanência da vazão de referência Q90, obtendo-se o valor de 0,081 m3 s-1 para o modelo calibrado. Os cenários de aumento da temperatura média da bacia em 1,5; 2,0; 3,0; 4,0 e 5,0 °C levaram ao decréscimo da Q90 em 7,66; 8,98; 10,49; 14,06 e 17,76%, respectivamente.Palavras-chave: escoamento superficial; modelo SWAT; cenários climáticos; gerenciamento de recursos hídricos. HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION TOOL FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE FUNCTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE RIACHÃO RIVER BASIN, MG, BRAZIL ABSTRACT: The hydrological simulation of watersheds becomes a major tool for planning and management of water resources, including water availability prediction from global climate change. Thus, the objective was to evaluate the efficiency of the SWAT hydrologic model to simulate the stream flow of Riachão river basin, North of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, under the impact of alternative scenarios with the increase in mean surface air temperature. The SWAT model was adjusted for 1/1/2008 to 12/31/2014 period and calibrated with data measurement obtaining values the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.74 and 0.79 and percent bias (PBIAS) of 15.45 and 16.72% was found to calibration and validation period, respectively. The surface water availability in the hydrographic basin was calculated by Q90 streamflow, with calibrated value of 0.081 m³s-1. The scenarios of increase in mean air temperature (1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 ºC) reduced Q90 by 7.66, 8.98, 10.49, 14.06 and 17.76%, respectively.Keywords: runoff; SWAT model; climate scenarios; water resource management.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document