scholarly journals Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 3511-3527 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Liu ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
X. L. Pan ◽  
An. M. Bao ◽  
X. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs) and applied on the station-based, observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean, and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the hydrological model.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 6593-6637 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Liu ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
X. L. Pan ◽  
An. M. Bao ◽  
X. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs) and applied on the station based observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the hydrological model.

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRhön aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rhön in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km² and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5°x0.5° (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> on evapotranspiration and thus runoff.   </p><p>The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.</p><p>To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.</p>

scholarly journals Water resources change in response to climate change in Changjiang River basin

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3159-3188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Huang ◽  
W. F. Yang ◽  
L. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Changjiang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Doubtlessly, global climate change and its impacts have caught increasing attention from all sectors of the society world-widely. Among all those affected aspects, hydrological circle has been found rather sensitive to climate change. Climate change, either as the result or as the driving-force, has intensified the uneven distribution of water resources in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China. In turn, drought and flooding problems have been aggravated which has brought new challenges to current hydraulic works such as dike or reservoirs which were designed and constructed based on the historical hydrological characteristics, yet has been significantly changed due to climate change impact. Thus, it is necessary to consider the climate change impacts in basin planning and water resources management, currently and in the future. To serve such purpose, research has been carried out on climate change impact on water resources (and hydrological circle) in Changjiang River. The paper presents the main findings of the research, including main findings from analysis of historical hydro-meteorological data in Changjiang River, and runoff change trends in the future using temperature and precipitation predictions calculated based on different emission scenarios of the 24 Global Climate Modes (GCMs) which has been used in the 4th IPCC assessment report. In this research, two types of macro-scope statistical and hydrological models were developed to simulate runoff prediction. Concerning the change trends obtained from the historical data and the projection from GCMs results, the trend of changes in water resources impacted by climate change was analyzed for Changjiang River. Uncertainty of using the models and data were as well analyzed.

scholarly journals Estimating the Relative Uncertainties Sourced from GCMs and Hydrological Models in Modeling Climate Change Impact on Runoff

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Teng ◽  
Jai Vaze ◽  
Francis H. S. Chiew ◽  
Biao Wang ◽  
Jean-Michel Perraud
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Modeling ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Climate Series

Abstract This paper assesses the relative uncertainties from GCMs and from hydrological models in modeling climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia. Five lumped conceptual daily rainfall–runoff models are used to model runoff using historical daily climate series and using future climate series obtained by empirically scaling the historical climate series informed by simulations from 15 GCMs. The majority of the GCMs project a drier future for this region, particularly in the southern parts, and this is amplified as a bigger reduction in the runoff. The results indicate that the uncertainty sourced from the GCMs is much larger than the uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff models. The variability in the climate change impact on runoff results for one rainfall–runoff model informed by 15 GCMs (an about 28%–35% difference between the minimum and maximum results for mean annual, mean seasonal, and high runoff) is considerably larger than the variability in the results between the five rainfall–runoff models informed by 1 GCM (a less than 7% difference between the minimum and maximum results). The difference between the rainfall–runoff modeling results is larger in the drier regions for scenarios of big declines in future rainfall and in the low-flow characteristics. The rainfall–runoff modeling here considers only the runoff sensitivity to changes in the input climate data (primarily daily rainfall), and the difference between the hydrological modeling results is likely to be greater if potential changes in the climate–runoff relationship in a warmer and higher CO2 environment are modeled.

scholarly journals Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (33) ◽  
pp. 9222-9227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvan Ragettli ◽  
Walter W. Immerzeel ◽  
Francesca Pellicciotti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Change Impact

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on river flow extremes in the Upper Blue Nile River basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 759-781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadush K. Meresa ◽  
Mulusew T. Gatachew
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Blue Nile River Basin

Abstract This paper aims to study climate change impact on the hydrological extremes and projected precipitation extremes in far future (2071–2100) period in the Upper Blue Nile River basin (UBNRB). The changes in precipitation extremes were derived from the most recent AFROCORDEX climate data base projection scenarios compared to the reference period (1971–2000). The climate change impacts on the hydrological extremes were evaluated using three conceptual hydrological models: GR4 J, HBV, and HMETS; and two objective functions: NSE and LogNSE. These hydrological models are calibrated and validated in the periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010, respectively. The results indicate that the wet/dry spell will significantly decrease/increase due to climate change in some sites of the region, while in others, there is increase/decrease in wet/dry spell but not significantly, respectively. The extreme river flow will be less attenuated and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence than at present. Low flows are projected to increase most prominently for lowland sites, due to the combined effects of projected decreases in Belg and Bega precipitation, and projected increases in evapotranspiration that will reduce residual soil moisture in Bega and Belg seasons.

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