scholarly journals Sub catchment Assessment of snowpack and snowmelt change by analyzing elevation bands and parameter sensitivity in the high Himalayas

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vishal Singh ◽  
Manish Kumar Goyal ◽  
Rao Y. Surampalli ◽  
Francisco Munoz-Arriola
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Hydrological Parameters ◽  
Streamflow Generation ◽  
Satluj River

Abstract. The present work proposes to improve estimates of how much streamflow is generated by snow in the watersheds of the steep Himalayas. Half of the earth’s glacial catchments in nonpolar areas are in the Himalayas, and they generate almost a third of the streamflows in India. In River catchments with glacier presence in the region, temporal variability in streamflow generation and the associated distribution of accumulated snow illustrate how changes in snowmelt and precipitation can affect water supplies to a growing population of 1.3 billion people. Estimations of snowpack and snowmelt in watersheds are critical for understanding streamflow generation and sources of catchments. However, estimating precipitation and snow accumulation is constrained by the difficulties complex terrain poses to data collection. The primary objective of this study is to assess the role of elevations in the computation of snowfall (snowpack) and snowmelt in sub-catchments. The study area is the Satluj River Catchment (up to Kasol gauge) with moderate (e.g., 526 m) to very high elevations (e.g., 7429 m) dominated by snow covers and glaciers. The Satluj River Catchment was divided into 14 sub-catchments. Snowpack and snowmelt variations in the sub-catchments in both historical and projected near-term (2011–2130) periods were analyzed using observed and Global Circulation Model (GCM) data sets. Both hydrological scenarios used elevation bands and parameter-sensitivity analyses built in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. For model calibration/validation and parameter sensitivity analysis, an advanced optimization method — namely, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) approach was used with multiple hydrological parameters. Among all parameters, the curve number (CN2) was found significantly sensitive for computations. The snowmelt hydrological parameters such as snowmelt factor maximum (SMFMX) and snow coverage (SNO50COV) significantly affected objective functions such as R2 and NSE during the model optimization process. The computed snowpack and snowmelt were found highly variable over the Himalayan sub-catchments as also reported by previous researchers in other regions. The magnitude of snowpack change consistently decreases across all the sub-catchments of the Satluj River Catchment (varying between 4 % and 42 %). The highest percentage of changes in snowpack was observed over high-elevation subcatchments.

scholarly journals Improvements in Sub-Catchment Fractional Snowpack and Snowmelt Parameterizations and Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Change Assessments in the Western Himalayas

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Vishal Singh ◽  
Francisco Muñoz-Arriola
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Hydrological Parameters ◽  
Satluj River

The present work proposes to improve estimates of snowpack and snowmelt and their assessment in the steep Himalayan ranges at the sub-catchment scale. Temporal variability of streamflow and the associated distribution of accumulated snow in catchments with glacier presence in the Himalayas illustrates how changes in snowpack and snowmelt can affect the water supply for local water management. The primary objective of this study is to assess the role of elevation, temperature lapse rate (TLR), and precipitation lapse rate (PLR) in the computation of snowpack (or snowfall) and snowmelt in sub-catchments of the Satluj River basin. Modeling of snowpack and snowmelt was constructed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in both historical (1991–2008) and near-time scenarios (2011–2030) by implementing real-time hydrometeorological, snow-hydrological parameters, and Global Circulation Model (GCM) datasets. The modeled snowmelt-induced streamflow showed a good agreement with the observed streamflow (~60%), calibrated and validated at three gauges. A Sequential Uncertainty Parameter Fitting (SUFI2) method (SUFI2) resulted that the curve number (CN2) was found to be significantly sensitive during calibration. The snowmelt hydrological parameters such as snowmelt factor maximum (SMFMX) and snow coverage (SNO50COV) significantly affected objective functions, such as R2 and NSE, during the model optimization. For the validation of snowpack and snowmelt, the results have been contrasted with previous studies and found comparable. The computed snowpack and snowmelt were found highly variable over the Himalayan sub-catchments, as also reported by previous researchers. The magnitude of snowpack change consistently decreases across all the sub-catchments of the Satluj river catchment (varying between 4% and 42%). The highest percentage of changes in the snowpack was observed over high-elevation sub-catchments.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT Model with a Modified Groundwater Module to the Semi-Arid Hailiutu River Catchment, Northwest China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangwen Shao ◽  
Danrong Zhang ◽  
Yiqing Guan ◽  
Yuebo Xie ◽  
Feng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Flow Behavior ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Shallow Aquifers ◽  
Deep Aquifer ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Deep Aquifers ◽  
Semi Arid

In the original soil and water assessment Tool (SWAT) model (SWAT-O), the contributions of shallow aquifers and deep aquifers to streamflow are simulated using the linear reservoir method. The movement of groundwater was limited in the hydrological response unit which is a minimum calculation unit in the SWAT. However, this computational method may not be suitable for the areas where a groundwater system is complicated, and the river is predominately recharged by groundwater. In this paper, we proposed an enhanced groundwater module which divides shallow aquifers into upper and lower aquifers, integrates all the deep aquifers of a sub-basin into a regional aquifer, and simulates interactive water amount between lower aquifer and deep aquifer using water depth difference. The modified groundwater module was introduced to the original SWAT model, hereby referred to as SWAT-MG. The SWAT-MG and SWAT-O models were applied to the Hailiutu River catchment, which is a semi-arid wind sandy grass shoal catchment. Results showed that both models underestimated streamflow in peak flow, while the simulated streamflow of SWAT-MG was closer the observed values than that of SWAT-O. Three evaluation criteria (NSE, RSR, PBIAS) were applied to evaluate the performance of the models and the results showed that SWAT-MG had a better performance than SWAT-O. The baseflow index of Hailiutu River which was calculated by the results of SWAT-MG was 96.78%, which means the streamflow is predominately recharged by groundwater, and this conforms to the actual situation of Hailiutu River catchment. This indicates that a SWAT model with a modified groundwater module could better represent the groundwater flow behavior in the study area.

scholarly journals Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2333
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Karim Bergaoui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Distributed Modeling ◽  
Combined Indices ◽  
Annual Water

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from −45.6% to −76.7% under RCP4.5, and from −66.7% to −95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.

scholarly journals Effects of hydrologic conditions on SWAT model performance and parameter sensitivity for a small, mixed land use catchment in New Zealand

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 4127-4147 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Me ◽  
J. M. Abell ◽  
D. P. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Treated Wastewater ◽  
Flow Measurements

Abstract. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was configured for the Puarenga Stream catchment (77 km2), Rotorua, New Zealand. The catchment land use is mostly plantation forest, some of which is spray-irrigated with treated wastewater. A Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) procedure was used to auto-calibrate unknown parameter values in the SWAT model. Model validation was performed using two data sets: (1) monthly instantaneous measurements of suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations; and (2) high-frequency (1–2 h) data measured during rainfall events. Monthly instantaneous TP and TN concentrations were generally not reproduced well (24 % bias for TP, 27 % bias for TN, and R2 < 0.1, NSE < 0 for both TP and TN), in contrast to SS concentrations (< 1 % bias; R2 and NSE both > 0.75) during model validation. Comparison of simulated daily mean SS, TP and TN concentrations with daily mean discharge-weighted high-frequency measurements during storm events indicated that model predictions during the high rainfall period considerably underestimated concentrations of SS (44 % bias) and TP (70 % bias), while TN concentrations were comparable (< 1 % bias; R2 and NSE both ~ 0.5). This comparison highlighted the potential for model error associated with quick flow fluxes in flashy lower-order streams to be underestimated compared with low-frequency (e.g. monthly) measurements derived predominantly from base flow measurements. To address this, we recommend that high-frequency, event-based monitoring data are used to support calibration and validation. Simulated discharge, SS, TP and TN loads were partitioned into two components (base flow and quick flow) based on hydrograph separation. A manual procedure (one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis) was used to quantify parameter sensitivity for the two hydrologically separated regimes. Several SWAT parameters were found to have different sensitivities between base flow and quick flow. Parameters relating to main channel processes were more sensitive for the base flow estimates, while those relating to overland processes were more sensitive for the quick flow estimates. This study has important implications for identifying uncertainties in parameter sensitivity and performance of hydrological models applied to catchments with large fluctuations in stream flow and in cases where models are used to examine scenarios that involve substantial changes to the existing flow regime.

scholarly journals Hydrologic evaluation and effects of climate change on the Nong Han Lake Basin, northeastern Thailand

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 992-1000
Author(s):  
Jirawat Supakosol ◽  
Kowit Boonrawd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Model Soil ◽  
Regional Climates ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Effective Water ◽  
Northeastern Thailand

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the future runoff into the Nong Han Lake under the effects of climate change. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been selected for this study. The calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated and observed runoff from gauging station KH90 for the period 2001–2003 and 2004–2005, respectively. Future climate projections were generated by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The SWAT model yielded good results in comparison to the baseline; moreover, the results of the PRECIS model showed that both precipitations and temperatures increased. Consequently, the amount of runoff calculated by SWAT under the A2 and B2 scenarios was higher than that for the baseline. In addition, the amount of runoff calculated considering the A2 scenario was higher than that considering the B2 scenario, due to higher average annual precipitations in the former case. The methodology and results of this study constitute key information for stakeholders, especially for the development of effective water management systems in the lake, such as designing a rule curve to cope with any future incidents.

scholarly journals SWAT Model Adaptability to a Small Mountainous Forested Watershed in Central Romania

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 860
Author(s):  
Nicu Constantin Tudose ◽  
Mirabela Marin ◽  
Sorin Cheval ◽  
Cezar Ungurean ◽  
Serban Octavian Davidescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Forested Watershed ◽  
Sensitive Parameters ◽  
Lower Uncertainty ◽  
Validation Stage ◽  
Water Assessment

This study aims to build and test the adaptability and reliability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model in a small mountain forested watershed. This ungauged watershed covers 184 km2 and supplies 90% of blue water for the Brașov metropolitan area, the second largest metropolitan area of Romania. After building a custom database at the forest management compartment level, the SWAT model was run. Further, using the SWAT-CUP software under the SUFI2 algorithm, we identified the most sensitive parameters required in the calibration and validation stage. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis revealed that the surface runoff is mainly influenced by soil, groundwater and vegetation condition parameters. The calibration was carried out for 2001‒2010, while the 1996‒1999 period was used for model validation. Both procedures have indicated satisfactory performance and a lower uncertainty of model results in replicating river discharge compared with observed discharge. This research demonstrates that the SWAT model can be applied in small ungauged watersheds after an appropriate parameterisation of its databases. Furthermore, this tool is appropriate to support decision-makers in conceiving sustainable watershed management. It also guides prioritising the most suitable measures to increase the river basin resilience and ensure the water demand under climate change.

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