scholarly journals Diagnosis of future changes in hydrology for a Canadian Rockies headwater basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 2731-2754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Fang ◽  
John W. Pomeroy

Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to impact the hydrology of the Saskatchewan River, which originates in the Canadian Rockies mountain range. To better understand the climate change impacts in the mountain headwaters of this basin, a physically based hydrological model was developed for this basin using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) for Marmot Creek Research Basin (∼9.4 km2), located in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rockies. Marmot Creek is composed of ecozones ranging from montane forests to alpine tundra and alpine exposed rock and includes both large and small clearcuts. The model included blowing and intercepted snow redistribution, sublimation, energy-balance snowmelt, slope and canopy effects on melt, Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration, infiltration to frozen and unfrozen soils, hillslope hydrology, streamflow routing, and groundwater components and was parameterised without calibration from streamflow. Near-surface outputs from the 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were bias-corrected using the quantile delta mapping method with respect to meteorological data from five stations located from low-elevation montane forests to alpine ridgetops and running over October 2005–September 2013. The bias-corrected WRF outputs during a current period (2005–2013) and a future pseudo global warming period (PGW, 2091–2099) were used to drive model simulations to assess changes in Marmot Creek's hydrology. Under a “business-as-usual” forcing scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) in PGW, the basin will warm up by 4.7 ∘C and receive 16 % more precipitation, which will lead to a 40 mm decline in seasonal peak snowpack, 84 mm decrease in snowmelt volume, 0.2 mm d−1 slower melt rate, and 49 d shorter snow-cover duration. The alpine snow season will be shortened by almost 1.5 months, but at some lower elevations there will be large decreases in peak snowpack (∼45 %) in addition to a shorter snow season. Declines in the peak snowpack will be much greater in clearcuts than under mature forest canopies. In alpine and treeline ecozones, blowing snow transport and sublimation will be suppressed by higher-threshold wind speeds for transport, in forest ecozones, sublimation losses from intercepted snow will decrease due to faster unloading and drip, and throughout the basin, evapotranspiration will increase due to a longer snow-free season and more rainfall. Runoff will begin earlier in all ecozones, but, as a result of variability in surface and subsurface hydrology, forested and alpine ecozones will generate the greatest runoff volumetric increases, ranging from 12 % to 25 %, whereas the treeline ecozone will have a small (2 %) decrease in runoff volume due to decreased melt volumes from smaller snowdrifts. The shift in timing in streamflow will be notable, with 236 % higher flows in spring months and 12 % lower flows in summer and 13 % higher flows in early fall. Overall, Marmot Creek's annual streamflow discharge will increase by 18 % with PGW, without a change in its streamflow generation efficiency, despite its basin shifting from primarily snowmelt runoff towards rainfall-dominated runoff generation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Fang ◽  
John W. Pomeroy

Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to have impacts on the water resources of the Saskatchewan River, which originates in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. To better understand the climate change impacts in the mountain headwaters of this basin, a physically based hydrological model was developed for this basin using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) for Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km2), located in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountain. Marmot Creek is composed of ecozones ranging from montane forests to alpine tundra and alpine exposed rock and includes both large and small clearcuts. The model included blowing and intercepted snow redistribution, sublimation, energy-balance snowmelt, slope and canopy effects on melt, Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration, infiltration to frozen and unfrozen soils, hillslope hydrology, streamflow routing and groundwater components and was parameterised without calibration from streamflow. Near-surface outputs from the 4-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were bias corrected using the quantile delta mapping method with respect to meteorological data from five stations located from montane forest to mountaintop during October 2005–September 2013. The bias corrected WRF outputs during current period (CTRL, 2005–2013) and future period (PGW, 2091–2099) were used to drive model simulations to assess changes in Marmot Creek's hydrology. Under a "business as usual" forcing scenario: representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) in PGW, the basin warms up by 4.7 °C and receives 16 % more precipitation, which leads to a 40 mm decline in seasonal peak snowpack, 84 mm decrease in snowmelt volume, 0.2 mm day-1 slower melt rate, and 49 days shorter snowcover duration. The alpine snow season will be shortened by almost one and half month, but at some lower elevations there are large decreases in peak snowpack (~45 %) as well as a shorter snow season. Losses of peak snowpack will be much greater in clearcuts than under forest canopies. In alpine and treeline ecozones blowing snow transport and sublimation will be suppressed by higher threshold wind speeds for transport, in forest canopies sublimation losses from intercepted snow will decrease due to faster unloading and drip, and for all ecozones, evapotranspiration will increase due to longer snow-free seasons and more rainfall. Runoff will begin earlier in all ecozones, but, as result of variability in surface and subsurface hydrology, forested and alpine ecozones generate larger runoff volumes, ranging from 12 % to 25 %, whereas the treeline ecozone has a small (2 %) decrease in runoff volume due to decreased melt volumes from smaller snowdrifts. The shift in timing in streamflow is notable, with 236 % higher flows in spring months and 12 % lower flows in summer and 13 % higher flows in early fall. Overall, Marmot Creek basin annual streamflow discharge will increase by 18 % with PGW without a change in its streamflow generation efficiency, despite the basin shifting from snowmelt runoff towards rainfall-dominated runoff generation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 2875-2894
Author(s):  
Dhiraj Pradhananga ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
Caroline Aubry-Wake ◽  
D. Scott Munro ◽  
Joseph Shea ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper presents hydrometeorological, glaciological and geospatial data from the Peyto Glacier Research Basin (PGRB) in the Canadian Rockies. Peyto Glacier has been of interest to glaciological and hydrological researchers since the 1960s, when it was chosen as one of five glacier basins in Canada for the study of mass and water balance during the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965–1974). Intensive studies of the glacier and observations of the glacier mass balance continued after the IHD, when the initial seasonal meteorological stations were discontinued, then restarted as continuous stations in the late 1980s. The corresponding hydrometric observations were discontinued in 1977 and restarted in 2013. Datasets presented in this paper include high-resolution, co-registered digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from original air photos and lidar surveys; hourly off-glacier meteorological data recorded from 1987 to the present; precipitation data from the nearby Bow Summit weather station; and long-term hydrological and glaciological model forcing datasets derived from bias-corrected reanalysis products. These data are crucial for studying climate change and variability in the basin and understanding the hydrological responses of the basin to both glacier and climate change. The comprehensive dataset for the PGRB is a valuable and exceptionally long-standing testament to the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere in the high-mountain environment. The dataset is publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0259 (Pradhananga et al., 2020).


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 4553-4579
Author(s):  
François Tuzet ◽  
Marie Dumont ◽  
Ghislain Picard ◽  
Maxim Lamare ◽  
Didier Voisin ◽  
...  

Abstract. The presence of light-absorbing particles (LAPs) in snow leads to a decrease in short-wave albedo affecting the surface energy budget. However, the understanding of the impacts of LAPs is hampered by the lack of dedicated datasets, as well as the scarcity of models able to represent the interactions between LAPs and snow metamorphism. The present study aims to address both these limitations by introducing a survey of LAP concentrations over two snow seasons in the French Alps and an estimation of their impacts based on the Crocus snowpack model that represents the complex interplays between LAP dynamics and snow metamorphism. First, a unique dataset collected at Col du Lautaret (2058 m a.s.l., above sea level, French Alps) for the two snow seasons 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 is presented. This dataset consists of spectral albedo measurements, vertical profiles of snow specific surface area (SSA), density and concentrations of different LAP species. Spectral albedos are processed to estimate SSA and LAP absorption-equivalent concentrations near the surface of the snowpack. These estimates are then compared to chemical measurements of LAP concentrations and SSA measurements. Our dataset highlights, among others, large discrepancies between two measurement techniques of black carbon (BC) concentrations in snow (namely thermal-optical and laser-induced incandescence). Second, we present ensemble snowpack simulations of the multi-physics version of the detailed snowpack model Crocus, forced with in situ meteorological data, as well as dust and BC deposition fluxes from an atmospheric model. The temporal variations of near-surface LAP concentrations and SSA are most of the time correctly simulated. The simulated seasonal radiative forcing of LAPs is 33 % higher for the 2017–2018 snow season than for the 2016–2017 one, highlighting a strong variability between these two seasons. However, the shortening of the snow season caused by LAPs is similar with 10 ± 5 and 11 ± 1 d for the first and the second snow seasons, respectively. This counter-intuitive result is attributed to two small snowfalls at the end of the first season and highlights the importance in accounting for meteorological conditions to correctly predict the impact of LAPs. The strong variability of season shortening caused by LAPs in the multi-physics ensemble for the first season (10 ± 5 d) also points out the sensitivity of model-based estimations of LAP impact on modelling uncertainties of other processes. Finally, the indirect impact of LAPs (i.e. the enhancement of energy absorption due to the acceleration of the metamorphism by LAPs) is negligible for the 2 years considered here, which is contrary to what was found in previous studies for other sites.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhiraj Pradhananga ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
Caroline Aubry-Wake ◽  
D. Scott Munro ◽  
Joseph Shea ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper presents hydrometeorological, glaciological and geospatial data of the Peyto Glacier Research Basin (PGRB) in the Canadian Rockies. Peyto Glacier has been of interest to glaciological and hydrological researchers since the 1960s, when it was chosen as one of five glacier basins in Canada for the study of mass and water balance during the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965–1974). Intensive studies of the glacier and observations of the glacier mass balance continued after the IHD, when the initial seasonal meteorological stations were discontinued, then restarted as continuous stations in the late 1980s. The corresponding hydrometric observations were discontinued in 1977 and restarted in 2013. Data sets presented in this paper include: high resolution, co-registered DEMs derived from original air photos and LiDAR surveys; hourly off-glacier meteorological data recorded from 1987 to present; precipitation data from nearby Bow Summit; and long-term hydrological and glaciological model forcing datasets derived from bias-corrected reanalysis products. These data are crucial for studying climate change and variability in the basin, and to understanding the hydrological responses of the basin to both glacier and climate change. The comprehensive data set for the PGRB is a valuable and exceptionally long-standing testament to the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere in the high mountain environment. The dataset is publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0259 (Pradhananga et al., 2020).


2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sookyung Shin ◽  
Jung-Hyun Kim ◽  
Ji-Hee Dang ◽  
In-Soon Seo ◽  
Byoung Yoon Lee

AbstractThe climate is changing rapidly, and this may pose a major threat to global biodiversity. One of the most distinctive consequences of climate change is the poleward and/or upward shift of species distribution ranges associated with increasing temperatures, resulting in a change of species composition and community structure in the forest ecosystems. The Baekdudaegan mountain range connects most forests from the lowland to the subalpine zone in South Korea and is therefore recognized as one of the most important biodiversity hotspots. This study was conducted to understand the distribution range of vascular plants along elevational gradients through field surveys in the six national parks of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. We identified the upper and lower distribution limits of a total of 873 taxa of vascular plants with 117 families, 418 genera, 793 species, 14 subspecies, 62 varieties, two forms, and two hybrids. A total of 12 conifers were recorded along the elevational gradient. The distribution ranges of Abies koreana, Picea jezoensis, Pinus pumila, and Thuja koraiensis were limited to over 1000 m above sea level. We also identified 21 broad-leaved trees in the subalpine zone. A total of 45 Korean endemic plant species were observed, and of these, 15 taxa (including Aconitum chiisanense and Hanabusaya asiatica) showed a narrow distribution range in the subalpine zone. Our study provides valuable information on the current elevational distribution ranges of vascular plants in the six national parks of South Korea, which could serve as a baseline for vertical shifts under future climate change.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Nyadzi

<p>The study examines how farmers’ observations of climate variability and change correspond with 42 years (1970-2011) meteorological data of temperature and rainfall. It shows how farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana adjust to the changing climate and explore the various obstacles that hinder the implementation of their adaptation strategies. With the help of an extension officer, 200 farmers from 20 communities were randomly selected based on their farming records. Temperatures over the last four decades (1970-2009) increased at a rate of 0.04 (± 0.41) ˚C and 0.3(± 0.13)˚C from 2010-2011 which is consistent to the farmers (82.5%) observations. Rainfall within the districts are characterised by inter-annual and monthly variability. It experienced an increased rate of 0.66 (± 8.30) mm from 1970-2009, which was inconsistent with the farmers (81.5%) observation. It however decreased from 2010-2011 at a huge rate of -22.49 (±15.90) mm which probably was the reason majority of the respondents claim rainfall was decreasing. Only 64.5% of the respondents had adjusted their farming activities because of climate variability and change. They apply fertilizers and pesticides, practice soil and water conservation, and irrigation for communities close to dams. Respondents desire to continue their current adaptation methods but may in the future consider changing crop variety, water-harvesting techniques, change crop production to livestock keeping, and possibly migrate to urban centers. Lack of climate change education, low access to credit and agricultural inputs are some militating factors crippling the farmers’ effort to adapt to climate change.</p>


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Hu ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
Qiang Wu ◽  
Shan-e-hyder Soomro ◽  
Shengqi Jian

Runoff reduction in most river basins in China has become a hotpot in recent years. The Gushanchuan river, a primary tributary of the middle Yellow river, Northern China, showed a significant downward trend in the last century. Little is known regarding the relative contributions of changing environment to the observed hydrological trends and response on the runoff generation process in its watershed. On the basis of observed hydrological and meteorological data from 1965–2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test and climate elasticity method were used to distinguish the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Gushanchuan basin. The results indicate that the runoff in the Gushanchuan Basin has experienced significant declines as large as 77% from 1965 to 2010, and a mutation point occurred around 1997; the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 12.9–15.1%, and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is 84.9–87.1%. Then we divided long-term data sequence into two stages around the mutation point, and analyzed runoff generation mechanisms based on land use and cover changes (LUCC). We found that the floods in the Gushanchuan Basin were still dominated by Excess-infiltration runoff, but the proportion in 1965–1997 and 1998–2010 decreased gradually (68.46% and 45.83% in turn). The proportion of Excess-storage runoff and Mixed runoff has increased, which means that the runoff is made up of more runoff components. The variation law of the LUCC indicates that the forest area increased by 49.61%, the confluence time increased by 50.42%, and the water storage capacity of the watershed increased by 30.35%.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 541-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Przemyslaw Zelazowski ◽  
Chris Huntingford ◽  
Lina M. Mercado ◽  
Nathalie Schaller

Abstract. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25±5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44±4.37 and 14.98±4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maike Offer ◽  
Riccardo Scandroglio ◽  
Daniel Draebing ◽  
Michael Krautblatter

&lt;p&gt;Warming of permafrost in steep rock walls decreases their mechanical stability and could triggers rockfalls and rockslides. However, the direct link between climate change and permafrost degradation is seldom quantified with precise monitoring techniques and long-term time series. Where boreholes are not possible, laboratory-calibrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is presumably the most accurate quantitative permafrost monitoring technique providing a sensitive record for frozen vs. unfrozen bedrock. Recently, 4D inversions allow also quantification of frozen bedrock extension and of its changes with time (Scandroglio et al., in review).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this study we (i) evaluate the influence of the inversion parameters on the volumes and (ii) connect the volumetric changes with measured mechanical consequences.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The ERT time-serie was recorded between 2006 and 2019 in steep bedrock at the permafrost affected Steint&amp;#228;lli Ridge (3100 m asl). Accurately positioned 205 drilled-in steel electrodes in 5 parallel lines across the rock ridge have been repeatedly measured with similar hardware and are compared to laboratory temperature-resistivity (T&amp;#8211;&amp;#961;) calibration of water-saturated samples from the field. Inversions were conducted using the open-source software BERT for the first time with the aim of estimating permafrost volumetric changes over a decade.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;(i) Here we present a sensitivity analysis of the outcomes by testing various plausible inversion set-ups. Results are computed with different input data filters, data error model, regularization parameter (&amp;#955;), model roughness reweighting and time-lapse constraints. The model with the largest permafrost degradation was obtained without any time-lapse constraints, whereas constraining each model with the prior measurement results in the smallest degradation. Important changes are also connected to the data error estimation, while other setting seems to have less influence on the frozen volume. All inversions confirmed a drastic permafrost degradation in the last 13 years with an average reduction of 3.900&amp;#177;600&amp;#160;m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; (60&amp;#177;10% of the starting volume), well in agreement with the measured air temperatures increase.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;(ii) Average bedrock thawing rate of ~300 m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;/a is expected to significantly influence the stability of the ridge. Resistivity changes are especially evident on the south-west exposed side and in the core of the ridge and are here connected to deformations measured with tape extensometer, in order to precisely estimate the mechanical consequences of bedrock warming.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In summary, the strong degradation of permafrost in the last decade it&amp;#8217;s here confirmed since inversion settings only have minor influence on volume quantification. Internal thermal dynamics need correlation with measured external deformation for a correct interpretation of stability consequences. These results are a fundamental benchmark for evaluating mountain permafrost degradation in relation to climate change and demonstrate the key role of temperature-calibrated 4D ERT.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reference:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Scandroglio, R. et al. (in review) &amp;#8216;4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated ERT approach&amp;#8217;, &lt;em&gt;Near Surface Geophysics&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;


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