scholarly journals Groundwater and baseflow drought responses to synthetic recharge stress tests

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 1053-1068
Author(s):  
Jost Hellwig ◽  
Michael Stoelzle ◽  
Kerstin Stahl
Keyword(s):  
Fractured Rock ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
The North ◽  
Groundwater Response ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
Fractured Rock Aquifers

Abstract. Groundwater is the main source of freshwater and maintains streamflow during drought. Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on the systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. We performed groundwater model experiments using three different generic stress tests to estimate the groundwater and baseflow drought sensitivity to changes in recharge. The stress tests stem from a stakeholder co-design process that specifically followed the idea of altering known drought events from the past, i.e. asking whether altered recharge could have made a particular event worse. Across Germany, groundwater responses to the stress tests are highly heterogeneous, with groundwater heads in the north more sensitive to long-term recharge and in the Central German Uplands to short-term recharge variations. Baseflow droughts are generally more sensitive to intra-annual dynamics, and baseflow responses to the stress tests are smaller compared to the groundwater heads. The groundwater drought recovery time is mainly driven by the hydrogeological conditions, with slow (fast) recovery in the porous (fractured rock) aquifers. In general, a seasonal shift of recharge (i.e. less summer recharge and more winter recharge) will have lesser effects on groundwater and baseflow drought severity. A lengthening of dry spells might cause much stronger responses, especially in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation. Water management may need to consider the spatially different sensitivities of the groundwater system and the potential for more severe groundwater droughts in the large porous aquifers following prolonged meteorological droughts, particularly in the context of climate change projections indicating stronger seasonality and more severe drought events.

Stress-testing groundwater and baseflow drought sensitivity to recharge

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jost Hellwig ◽  
Michael Stoelzle ◽  
Kerstin Stahl
Keyword(s):  
Fractured Rock ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Drought Sensitivity ◽  
The North ◽  
Groundwater Response ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
Fractured Rock Aquifers

<p>Groundwater is the main source of freshwater and maintains streamflow during drought. Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on the systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. We performed groundwater model experiments using three different generic stress tests to estimate the groundwater- and baseflow drought sensitivity to changes in recharge. The stress tests stem from a stakeholder co-design process that specifically followed the idea of altering known drought events from the past, i.e. asking whether altered recharge could have made a particular event worse. Here we show that groundwater responses to the stress tests are highly heterogeneous across Germany with groundwater heads in the North more sensitive to long-term recharge and in the Central German Uplands to short-term recharge variations. Baseflow droughts are generally more sensitive to intra-annual dynamics and baseflow responses to the stress tests are smaller compared to the groundwater heads. The groundwater drought recovery time is mainly driven by the hydrogeological conditions with slow (fast) recovery in the porous (fractured rock) aquifers. In general, a seasonal shift of recharge (i.e., less summer recharge and more winter recharge) will therefore have low effects on groundwater and baseflow drought severity. A lengthening of dry spells might cause much stronger responses, especially in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation. Water management may need to consider the spatially different sensitivities of the groundwater system and the potential for more severe groundwater droughts in the large porous aquifers following prolonged meteorological droughts, particularly in the context of climate change projections indicating stronger seasonality and more severe drought events.</p>

scholarly journals Stress-testing groundwater and baseflow drought responses to synthetic climate change-informed recharge scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jost Hellwig ◽  
Michael Stoelzle ◽  
Kerstin Stahl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Fractured Rock ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
The North ◽  
Groundwater Response ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
Fractured Rock Aquifers

Abstract. Groundwater is the main source of freshwater and maintains streamflow during drought. Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. We performed groundwater model experiments using three different generic scenarios to estimate the groundwater- and baseflow drought sensitivity to changes in recharge. The scenarios stem from a stakeholder co-design process that specifically followed the idea of altering known drought events from the past, i.e. asking whether altered recharge could have made a particular event worse. Across Germany groundwater responses to the scenarios are highly heterogeneous with groundwater heads in the North more sensitive to long-term recharge and in the Central German Uplands to short-term recharge variations. Baseflow droughts are generally more sensitive to intra-annual dynamics and baseflow responses to the scenarios are smaller compared to the groundwater heads. The groundwater drought recovery time is mainly driven by the hydrogeological conditions with slow (fast) recovery in the porous (fractured rock) aquifers. In general, a seasonal shift of recharge (i.e. less summer recharge and more winter recharge) will therefore have low effects on groundwater and baseflow drought severity. A lengthening of dry spells might cause much stronger responses, especially in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation. As climate models suggest such directional changes for Germany in the future, the results of the stress tests suggest that groundwater resources in Germany may not decrease in general, but water management may need to consider the potential for more severe groundwater droughts in the large porous aquifers following prolonged meteorological droughts.

scholarly journals On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 5307-5343 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. A. Räsänen ◽  
V. Lindgren ◽  
J. H. A. Guillaume ◽  
B. M. Buckley ◽  
M. Kummu
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Seasonal Evolution ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Mainland Southeast Asia

Abstract. The variability in the hydroclimate over mainland Southeast Asia is strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which has been linked to severe drought and floods that profoundly influence human societies and ecosystems alike. However, the spatial characteristics and long-term stationarity of ENSO's influence in the region are not well understood. We thus aim to analyse seasonal evolution and spatial variations in the effect of ENSO on precipitation over the period of 1980–2013, and long-term variation in the ENSO-teleconnection using tree-ring derived Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) that span from 1650–2004. We found that the majority of the study area is under the influence of ENSO, which has affected the region's hydroclimate over the majority (96 %) of the 355 year study period. Our results further indicate that there is a pattern of seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies during ENSO. However, considerable variability in the ENSO's influence is revealed: the strength of ENSO's influence was found to vary in time and space, and the different ENSO events resulted in varying precipitation anomalies. Additional research is needed to investigate how this variation in ENSO teleconnection is influenced by other factors, such as the properties of the ENSO events and other ocean and atmospheric phenomena. In general, the high variability we found in ENSO teleconnection combined with limitations of current knowledge, suggests that the adaptation to extremes in hydroclimate in mainland Southeast Asia needs to go beyond "predict-and-control" and recognise both uncertainty and complexity as fundamental principles.

Trends and periodicities in the Canadian Drought Code and their relationships with atmospheric circulation for the southern Canadian boreal forest

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin-Philippe Girardin ◽  
Jacques Tardif ◽  
Mike D Flannigan ◽  
B Mike Wotton ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Gulf Of Alaska ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Canadian Boreal Forest

Trends and periodicities in summer drought severity are investigated on a network of Canadian Drought Code (CDC) monthly average indices extending from central Quebec to western Manitoba and covering the instrumental period 1913–1998. The relationship and coherency between CDC indices and ocean–atmosphere circulation patterns are also examined. Trend analyses indicate that drought severity is unchanged in eastern and central Canada. Composite analyses indicate that for most of the corridor, severe drought seasons occur with a combination of positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies centered over the Gulf of Alaska and over the Baffin Bay. Additional severe drought seasons develop across the corridor in the presence of positive height anomalies located over or upstream of the affected regions. According to spectral analyses, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific circulation patterns modulate the drought variability at the decadal scale. Our results lead us to conclude that climate warming and the increases in the amount and frequency of precipitation in eastern Canada during the last century had no significant impact on summer drought severity. It is unlikely that linear climate change contributed to the change in the boreal forest dynamics observed over the past 150 years.

Impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation and dry spells in New Zealand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludovico Nicotina ◽  
Francesco Comola ◽  
Saket Satyam ◽  
Carlotta Scudeler ◽  
Mani Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Enso Phases

<p>Global warming is expected to enhance El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with potential impacts on frequency and severity of floods and droughts in numerous countries of the Asia-Pacific region. However, the limited time coverage of historical records and the large uncertainties underlying climate model projections impair our ability to identify trends in extreme rainfall and dry spells. Here, we generate and analyze a long-term stochastic precipitation dataset for New Zealand that accounts for the potential effects of climate change. For this purpose, we draw on a 60 year-dataset of daily precipitation maps to identify the rainfall principal components and quantify their temporal correlations with the ENSO signal. We then generate a long-term stochastic set of daily rainfall maps correlated with ENSO projections, corresponding to different climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change may lead to more intense precipitation in the Southern Alps during positive ENSO phases. Conversely, extreme precipitation is likely to increase in the North Island during negative ENSO phases. Our analyses also suggest that the duration of extreme dry spells may significantly increase along the east side of the North and South Islands during positive ENSO phases. These results may guide the implementation of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies against the increasing risk of natural catastrophes.</p>

DROUGHT AND RANGELAND GRASSHOPPER SPECIES DIVERSITY

1994 ◽  
Vol 126 (4) ◽  
pp. 1075-1092 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.P. Kemp ◽  
M.M. Cigliano
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
Central Region ◽  
Resource Limitation ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Grasshopper Species ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
South Central

AbstractRangeland grasshopper species richness was monitored at 10 sites in Montana, U.S.A., during 1986 through 1992, which included an extreme drought year (1988). We observed significant post-1988 drought reductions in rangeland grasshopper species richness in the eastern and south-central region of Montana where drought intensity has been increasing during the past 20 years. In the north-central region, which also experienced the 1988 drought but showed no long-term drought trend, we did not observe a post-drought reduction in overall rangeland grasshopper species richness. Thus, in terms of rangeland grasshopper species richness, the potential impact of a severe drought in a given year may depend on the timing of such an event within longer-term climatic cycles. Our findings suggest that as regional drought intensity increases temporally, there may be an increased likelihood that a single extreme drought year will not only have a profound impact on abundance but may also result in significant long-term reduction of grasshopper species richness. Our results support the hypothesis that resource limitation is a very important factor in structuring rangeland grasshopper communities in space and time.

scholarly journals Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Rust ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
John Bloomfield ◽  
Mark Cuthbert ◽  
Ron Corstanje
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Wavelet Transforms ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
The North ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers, globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean-atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, ET and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which inter-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32 year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minima phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, allowing the estimation of future drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region.

scholarly journals Tree-Ring-Recorded Drought Variability in the Northern Daxing’anling Mountains of Northeastern China

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yu ◽  
Sher Shah ◽  
Guang Zhou ◽  
Zhenzhao Xu ◽  
Qijing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The North

We developed two tree-ring width chronologies of Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) from the low elevation forest of the northern Daxing’anling Mountains of Inner Mongolia. Although the two chronologies come from different sampling sites, significant correlations existed among the chronologies (r = 0.318), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 65.9% of total variance over their common period 1792–2016. Climate-growth correlation analysis revealed that the previous June and July Palmer drought severity index (PDSIp6-7) was the main climatic factor controlling tree-ring growth. Using a linear regression model, we reconstructed the PDSIp6-7 for the past 225 years (1792–2016). The reconstruction satisfied required statistical calibration and validation tests, and represented 38.6% of the PDSI variance recorded by instruments over the period 1955–2016. Six wet and five dry periods were revealed during these 225 years. The drought of 1903–1927 was the most severe drought in the study area in the last 225 years. Comparison with other tree-ring-based moisture-sensitive sequences from nearby regions confirmed a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. The results of a spatial climate correlation analysis with a gridded PDSI dataset revealed that our reconstructions contained strong regional drought signals for the southern Stanovoy Range and the northern Daxing’anling Mountains. The power spectrum revealed the existence of significant frequency cycles, which may be linked to large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, solar activity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

scholarly journals On the drought in the Balearic Islands during the hydrological year 2015–2016

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Climent Ramis ◽  
Romualdo Romero ◽  
Victor Homar ◽  
Sergio Alonso ◽  
Agustí Jansà ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Pressures ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Olive Trees ◽  
Desalination Plants

Abstract. During the hydrological year 2015–16 (September to August) a severe drought affected the Balearic Islands, with substantial consequences (alleviated partially by desalination plants) on water availability for consumption from reservoirs and aquifers and also on the vegetation cover. In particular, a plague of Xilella fastidiosa reached a relatively alarming level for the case of the almond and olive trees. The expansion of this infestation could be attributed to, or at least favored by, the extreme drought. In this paper we analyze this anomalous episode in terms of the corresponding water balance in comparison with the balance obtained from long-term climatological data. It is shown that the drought was the result of a lack of winter precipitation, the lowest in 43 years, which led to a shortage of water storage in the soil. In several meteorological stations analyzed, evaporation was greater than precipitation during all the months of the year. In terms of attribution, it is found that during the 2015–16 winter the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic was largely westerly and intense, with high values of the NAO index that were reflected in high pressures over the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean.

scholarly journals Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 3233-3245 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Rust ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
John Bloomfield ◽  
Mark Cuthbert ◽  
Ron Corstanje
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Wavelet Transforms ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
The North ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region.

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