High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electric generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We present high-resolution projections of Tasmanian surface water availability between 1961–1990 and 2070–2099. Six fine-scale (10 km) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows. The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3%) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22%). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections. In contrast, the poorly performing IHACRES model amplifies changes more than the other hydrological models. There is much more variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. This shows that it is more important to consider the range of RCM simulations than the range of hydrological models used here to adequately describe uncertainty in the projections. We use the SIMHYD model to describe future changes to streamflow in eight rivers. Changes to streamflows are projected to vary by region. Marked decreases of up to 30% are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use high-resolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.

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High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-16-1287-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 1287-1303 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

J. C. Bennett ◽

F. L. N. Ling ◽

D. A. Post ◽

M. R. Grose ◽

S. P. Corney ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Surface Water ◽

High Resolution ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Model ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Daily Streamflow

Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km2) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows. The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3%) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22%). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections. There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30% are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use high-resolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.

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Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6533 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Klaus Haslinger ◽

Gregor Laaha ◽

Wolfgang Schöner ◽

Andre Konrad ◽

Marc Olefs ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Model ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Return Periods ◽

Climate Model Simulations

In this contribution future changes of surface water availability over the Austrian domain is investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and potential evapotranspiration) are used as indicators for surface water availability and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these quantities we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating changes in return periods of drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show in general wetter conditions over the course of the 21st century over Austria. Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring will be getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation along with a higher rainfall/snowfall fraction as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the ensemble median of the climatic water balance are visible, hence uncertainties are large due to a considerable ensemble spread. However, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, a robust signal of increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent. It emerges from an increase in interannual variability of the climatic water balance, which likely stems from intensified land-atmosphere coupling under climate change sustaining and intensifying spring preconditions towards even wetter or dryer summers.

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Impact of climate change on water availability in the Oueme catchment at the outlet of the Save's bridge (Benin, West Africa)

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-384-255-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 384 ◽

pp. 255-260

Author(s):

Amedée Chabi ◽

Esdras Babadjidé Josué Zandagba ◽

Ezekiel Obada ◽

Eliezer Iboukoun Biao ◽

Eric Adéchina Alamou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Model Performance ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract. One of the major threats to water resources today remains climate change. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on water availability in Oueme catchment at Savè. Precipitation provided by three regional climate models (RCMs) was analyzed. Bias in these data was first corrected using the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method be for etheir use as input to hydrological models. To achieve the objective, six hydrological models were used (AWBM, ModHyPMA, HBV, GR4J, SimHyd and Hymod). In projection, the results showed that the AWBM model appears to be the best. The multi-model approach further improves model performance, with the best obtained with combinations of the models AWBM-ModHyPMA-HBV. The AWBM model showed a fairly good capability for simulating flows in the basin with only HIRHAM5 climate model data as input. Therefore, the simulation with the HIRHAM5 data as inputs to the five (05) hydrological models, showed flows that vary at the horizons (2025, 2055 and 2085) under the scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indeed, this variation is largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

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Effects of coastal topography on climate: high-resolution simulation with a regional climate model

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr01077 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 52 ◽

pp. 159-174 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

B Önol

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Resolution Simulation ◽

Coastal Topography

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High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-13-0153.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 1517-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Gerhard Smiatek ◽

Harald Kunstmann ◽

Andreas Heckl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Water Availability ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Model ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Full Range ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.955-959.3887 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 955-959 ◽

pp. 3887-3892 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Huang He Gu ◽

Zhong Bo Yu ◽

Ji Gan Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Changes ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Near Surface ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Huai River ◽

The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

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Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation estimates from the WRF model in the Third Pole river basins

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-20-0272.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

He Sun ◽

Fengge Su ◽

Zhihua He ◽

Tinghai Ou ◽

Deliang Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Infiltration Capacity ◽

Flood Prediction ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

Precipitation Estimates

AbstractIn this study, two sets of precipitation estimates based on the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) –the high Asia refined analysis (HAR) and outputs with a 9 km resolution from WRF (WRF-9km) are evaluated at both basin and point scales, and their potential hydrological utilities are investigated by driving the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) large-scale land surface hydrological model in seven Third Pole (TP) basins. The regional climate model (RCM) tends to overestimate the gauge-based estimates by 20–95% in annual means among the selected basins. Relative to the gauge observations, the RCM precipitation estimates can accurately detect daily precipitation events of varying intensities (with absolute bias < 3 mm). The WRF-9km exhibits a high potential for hydrological application in the monsoon-dominated basins in the southeastern TP (with NSE of 0.7–0.9 and bias of -11% to 3%), while the HAR performs well in the upper Indus (UI) and upper Brahmaputra (UB) basins (with NSE of 0.6 and bias of -15% to -9%). Both the RCM precipitation estimates can accurately capture the magnitudes of low and moderate daily streamflow, but show limited capabilities in flood prediction in most of the TP basins. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the strength and limitation of RCMs precipitation in hydrological modeling in the TP with complex terrains and sparse gauge observations.

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Characteristics of convective snow bands along the Swedish east coast

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-8-163-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 163-175 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Julia Jeworrek ◽

Lichuan Wu ◽

Christian Dieterich ◽

Anna Rutgersson

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

East Coast ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Open Water ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Precipitation Rate ◽

Shallow Convection

Abstract. Convective snow bands develop in response to a cold air outbreak from the continent or the frozen sea over the open water surface of lakes or seas. The comparatively warm water body triggers shallow convection due to increased heat and moisture fluxes. Strong winds can align with this convection into wind-parallel cloud bands, which appear stationary as the wind direction remains consistent for the time period of the snow band event, delivering enduring snow precipitation at the approaching coast. The statistical analysis of a dataset from an 11-year high-resolution atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4) indicated 4 to 7 days a year of moderate to highly favourable conditions for the development of convective snow bands in the Baltic Sea region. The heaviest and most frequent lake effect snow was affecting the regions of Gävle and Västervik (along the Swedish east coast) as well as Gdansk (along the Polish coast). However, the hourly precipitation rate is often higher in Gävle than in the Västervik region. Two case studies comparing five different RCA4 model setups have shown that the Rossby Centre atmospheric regional climate model RCA4 provides a superior representation of the sea surface with more accurate sea surface temperature (SST) values when coupled to the ice–ocean model NEMO as opposed to the forcing by the ERA-40 reanalysis data. The refinement of the resolution of the atmospheric model component leads, especially in the horizontal direction, to significant improvement in the representation of the mesoscale circulation process as well as the local precipitation rate and area by the model.

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Summer drought in Switzerland 1981‒2020: Events, trends and drivers

10.5194/ems2021-208 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Simon C. Scherrer ◽

Christoph Spirig ◽

Martin Hirschi ◽

Felix Maurer ◽

Sven Kotlarski

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

Soil Water ◽

Climate Model ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Summer Drought ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Temperature Scaling

The Alpine region has recently experienced several dry summers with negative impacts on the economy, society and ecology. Here, soil water, evapotranspiration and meteorological data from several observational and model-based data sources is used to assess events, trends and drivers of summer drought in Switzerland in the period 1981&#8210;2020. 2003 and 2018 are identified as the driest summers followed by somewhat weaker drought conditions in 2020, 2015 and 2011. We find clear evidence for an increasing summer drying in Switzerland. The observed climatic water balance (-39.2&#160;mm/decade) and 0-1 m soil water from reanalysis (ERA5-Land: -4.7&#160;mm/decade; ERA5: -7.2&#160;mm/decade) show a clear tendency towards summer drying with decreasing trends in most months. Increasing evapotranspiration (potential evapotranspiration: +21.0&#160;mm/decade; ERA5-Land actual evapotranspiration: +15.1&#160;mm/decade) is identified as important driver which scales excellently (+4 to +7%/K) with the observed strong warming of about 2&#176;C. An insignificant decrease in precipitation further enhanced the tendency towards drier conditions. Most simulations of the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble underestimate the changes in summer drying. They underestimate both, the observed recent summer warming and the small decrease in precipitation. The changes in temperature and precipitation are negatively correlated, i.e. simulations with stronger warming tend to show (weak) decreases in precipitation. However, most simulations and the reanalysis overestimate the correlation between temperature and precipitation and the precipitation-temperature scaling on the interannual time scale. Our results emphasize that the analysis of the regional summer drought evolution and its drivers remains challenging especially with regional climate model data but considerable uncertainties also exist in reanalysis data sets.

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