scholarly journals Correcting the radar rainfall forcing of a hydrological model with data assimilation: application to flood forecasting in the Lez Catchment in Southern France

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 3527-3579 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Harader ◽  
V. Borrell Estupina ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
M. Coustau ◽  
O. Thual ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Orographic Rainfall ◽  
Field Bias ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Flooding Events

Abstract. The present study explores the application of a data assimilation (DA) procedure to correct the radar rainfall inputs of an event-based, distributed, parsimonious hydrological model. A simplified Kalman filter algorithm was built on top of a rainfall-runoff model in order to assimilate discharge observations at the catchment outlet. The study site is the 114 km2 Lez Catchment near Montpellier, France. This catchment is subject to heavy orographic rainfall and characterized by a karstic geology, leading to flash flooding events. The hydrological model uses a derived version of the SCS method, combined with a Lag and Route transfer function. Because it depends on geographical features and cloud structures, the radar rainfall input to the model is particularily uncertain and results in significant errors in the simulated discharges. The DA analysis was applied to estimate a constant correction to each event hyetogram. The analysis was carried out for 19 events, in two different modes: re-analysis and pseudo-forecast. In both cases, it was shown that the reduction of the uncertainty in the rainfall data leads to a reduction of the error in the simulated discharge. The resulting correction of the radar rainfall data was then compared to the mean field bias (MFB), a corrective coefficient determined using ground rainfall measurements, which are more accurate than radar but have a decreased spatial resolution. It was shown that the radar rainfall corrected using DA leads to improved discharge simulations and Nash criteria compared to the MFB correction.

scholarly journals Correcting the radar rainfall forcing of a hydrological model with data assimilation: application to flood forecasting in the Lez catchment in Southern France

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 4247-4264 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Harader ◽  
V. Borrell-Estupina ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
M. Coustau ◽  
O. Thual ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Assimilation Efficiency ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Operational Environment ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Orographic Rainfall

Abstract. The present study explores the application of a data assimilation (DA) procedure to correct the radar rainfall inputs of an event-based, distributed, parsimonious hydrological model. An extended Kalman filter algorithm was built on top of a rainfall-runoff model in order to assimilate discharge observations at the catchment outlet. This work focuses primarily on the uncertainty in the rainfall data and considers this as the principal source of error in the simulated discharges, neglecting simplifications in the hydrological model structure and poor knowledge of catchment physics. The study site is the 114 km2 Lez catchment near Montpellier, France. This catchment is subject to heavy orographic rainfall and characterised by a karstic geology, leading to flash flooding events. The hydrological model uses a derived version of the SCS method, combined with a Lag and Route transfer function. Because the radar rainfall input to the model depends on geographical features and cloud structures, it is particularly uncertain and results in significant errors in the simulated discharges. This study seeks to demonstrate that a simple DA algorithm is capable of rendering radar rainfall suitable for hydrological forecasting. To test this hypothesis, the DA analysis was applied to estimate a constant hyetograph correction to each of 19 flood events. The analysis was carried in two different modes: by assimilating observations at all available time steps, referred to here as reanalysis mode, and by using only observations up to 3 h before the flood peak to mimic an operational environment, referred to as pseudo-forecast mode. In reanalysis mode, the resulting correction of the radar rainfall data was then compared to the mean field bias (MFB), a corrective coefficient determined using rain gauge measurements. It was shown that the radar rainfall corrected using DA leads to improved discharge simulations and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criteria compared to the MFB correction. In pseudo-forecast mode, the reduction of the uncertainty in the rainfall data leads to a reduction of the error in the simulated discharge, but uncertainty from the model parameterisation diminishes data assimilation efficiency. While the DA algorithm used is this study is effective in correcting uncertain radar rainfall, model uncertainty remains an important challenge for flood forecasting within the Lez catchment.

Real-time estimation of mean field bias in radar rainfall data

1999 ◽  
Vol 223 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 131-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.-J Seo ◽  
J.P Breidenbach ◽  
E.R Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Field Bias

scholarly journals Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall–runoff model

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Coustau ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
V. Borrell-Estupina ◽  
C. Bouvier ◽  
O. Thual
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Southern France ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Event Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables) in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR). For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i) to select the parameter(s) which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii) to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii) to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

scholarly journals Optimal Rainfall Estimation by Considering Elevation in the Han River Basin, South Korea

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 802-818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seong-Sim Yoon ◽  
Deg-Hyo Bae
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Han River ◽  
Orographic Rainfall ◽  
Han River Basin

AbstractMore than 70% of South Korea has mountainous terrain, which leads to significant spatiotemporal variability of rainfall. The country is exposed to the risk of flash floods owing to orographic rainfall. Rainfall observations are important in mountainous regions because flood control measures depend strongly on rainfall data. In particular, radar rainfall data are useful in these regions because of the limitations of rain gauges. However, radar rainfall data include errors despite the development of improved estimation techniques for their calculation. Further, the radar does not provide accurate data during heavy rainfall in mountainous areas. This study presents a radar rainfall adjustment method that considers the elevation in mountainous regions. Gauge rainfall and radar rainfall field data are modified by using standardized ordinary cokriging considering the elevation, and the conditional merging technique is used for combining the two types of data. For evaluating the proposed technique, the Han River basin was selected; a high correlation between rainfall and elevation can be seen in this basin. Further, the proposed technique was compared with the mean field bias and original conditional merging techniques. Comparison with kriged rainfall showed that the proposed method has a lesser tendency to oversmooth the rainfall distribution when compared with the other methods, and the optimal mean areal rainfall is very similar to the value obtained using gauges. It reveals that the proposed method can be applied to an area with significantly varying elevation, such as the Han River basin, to obtain radar rainfall data of high accuracy.

scholarly journals Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7995-8043 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Atencia ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
L. Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Probability Matching ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Models

Abstract. The performance of distributed hydrological models depends on the resolution, both spatial and temporal, of the rainfall surface data introduced. The estimation of quantitative precipitation from meteorological radar or satellite can improve hydrological model results, thanks to an indirect estimation at higher spatial and temporal resolution. In this work, composed radar data from a network of three C-band radars, with 6-minutal temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution, provided by the Catalan Meteorological Service, is used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A Window Probability Matching Method (gage-adjustment method) is applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation in both convective and stratiform Z/R relations used over Catalonia. Once the rainfall field has been adequately obtained, an advection correction, based on cross-correlation between two consecutive images, was introduced to get several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. Each different resolution is treated as an independent event, resulting in a probable range of input rainfall data. This ensemble of rainfall data is used, together with other sources of uncertainty, such as the initial basin state or the accuracy of discharge measurements, to calibrate the RIBS model using probabilistic methodology. A sensitivity analysis of time resolutions was implemented by comparing the various results with real values from stream-flow measurement stations.

Derivation of a 10-Year Radar-Based Climatology of Rainfall

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 1448-1463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aart Overeem ◽  
Iwan Holleman ◽  
Adri Buishand
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Weather Radars ◽  
Field Bias

Abstract Weather radars give quantitative precipitation estimates over large areas with high spatial and temporal resolutions not achieved by conventional rain gauge networks. Therefore, the derivation and analysis of a radar-based precipitation “climatology” are highly relevant. For that purpose, radar reflectivity data were obtained from two C-band Doppler weather radars covering the land surface of the Netherlands (≈3.55 × 104 km2). From these reflectivities, 10 yr of radar rainfall depths were constructed for durations D of 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 h with a spatial resolution of 2.4 km and a data availability of approximately 80%. Different methods are compared for adjusting the bias in the radar precipitation depths. Using a dense manual gauge network, a vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) and a spatial adjustment are applied separately to 24-h (0800–0800 UTC) unadjusted radar-based precipitation depths. Further, an automatic rain gauge network is employed to perform a mean-field bias adjustment to unadjusted 1-h rainfall depths. A new adjustment method is developed (referred to as MFBS) that combines the hourly mean-field bias adjustment and the daily spatial adjustment methods. The record of VPR gradients, obtained from the VPR adjustment, reveals a seasonal cycle that can be related to the type of precipitation. A verification with automatic (D ≤ 24 h) and manual (D = 24 h) rain gauge networks demonstrates that the adjustments remove the systematic underestimation of precipitation by radar. The MFBS adjustment gives the best verification results and reduces the residual (radar minus rain gauge depth) standard deviation considerably. The adjusted radar dataset is used to obtain exceedance probabilities, maximum rainfall depths, mean annual rainfall frequencies, and spatial correlations. Such a radar rainfall climatology is potentially valuable for the improvement of rainfall parameterization in weather and climate models and the design of hydraulic structures.

scholarly journals An Integrated Approach to Error Correction for Real-Time Radar-Rainfall Estimation

2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siriluk Chumchean ◽  
Ashish Sharma ◽  
Alan Seed
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Estimation ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Field Bias ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Correction Strategies

Abstract A procedure for estimating radar rainfall in real time consists of three main steps: 1) the measurement of reflectivity and removal of known sources of errors, 2) the conversion of the reflectivity to a rainfall rate (Z–R conversion), and 3) the adjustment of the mean field bias as assessed using a rain gauge network. Error correction is associated with the first two steps and incorporates removing erroneous measurements and correcting biases in the Z–R conversion. This paper investigates the relative importance of error correction and the mean field bias–adjustment processes. In addition to the correction for ground clutter, the bright band, and hail, the two error correction strategies considered here are 1) a scale transformation function to remove range-dependent bias in measured reflectivity resulting from an increase in observation volume with range, and 2) the classification of storm types to account for the variation in Z–R relationships for convective and stratiform rainfall. The mean field bias is removed using two alternatives: 1) estimation of the bias at each time step based on the sample of observations available, and 2) use of a Kalman filter to estimate the bias under assumptions of a Markovian dependence structure. A 7-month record of radar and rain gauge rainfall for Sydney, Australia, were used in this study. The results show a stepwise decrease in the root-mean-square error (rmse) of radar rainfall with added levels of error correction using either of the two mean field bias–adjustment methods considered in our study. It was found that although the effects of the two error correction strategies were small compared to bias adjustment, they do form an important step of radar-rainfall estimation.

scholarly journals Commercial microwave links as rainfall input data in urban hydrological modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greta Cazzaniga ◽  
Carlo De Michele ◽  
Cristina Deidda ◽  
Michele D'Amico ◽  
Antonio Ghezzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Discharge ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Signal Propagation ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Commercial Microwave Links

<p>Many studies in literature have showed that hydrological models are highly sensitive to spatial variability of the rainfall field. Limited and inaccurate rainfall observations can negatively affect flood forecasting and the decision-making processes based on warning system. This problem becomes much more evident in urban catchments which usually covers huge areas and where the runoff process is faster, due to the highly impervious surfaces. Given this, it is a priority to develop always new operational instruments which can improve rainfall data availability and accurately quantify rainfall variability in space. To face this challenge, in the recent years, it has been investigated the use of commercial microwave links (CML) as opportunistic rainfall sensors which could be integrated with traditional rainfall observations in areas lacking sensors. The technique relies on the well-established relationship between CML's signal attenuation and rainfall intensity across the signal propagation path. Here, we assess the operational potential of a CML network, located in the northern area of Lambro river (Lombardia region, Italy). This urbanized region is of great hydrological interest, since it is often subjected to flash floods, hence it requires a robust and accurate warning system. We considered a set of about 80 CMLs distributed quite uniformly over the entire study area and we assessed if and how rainfall data collected by them can improve river discharge predictions. To this aim, we implemented a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, which reproduces the river flow at the outlet section in Lesmo (Monza e Brianza), and we fed the hydrological model with CML rainfall data. We tested the use of CML rainfall data as input to the hydrological model. In particular, we used path-averaged rainfall intensities, calculated from CML path attenuation, as point measurements with a weight inversely proportional to CML length. To check the suitability of CML data as input to our urban rainfall-runoff model, we compared the observed river discharge with the predicted one, obtained using different rainfall data layouts. Indeed, we tested CML data but also rain gauges measurements and a combination of CML and rain gauge observations.</p>

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