scholarly journals A Quaternary fault database for central Asia

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 529-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solmaz Mohadjer ◽  
Todd Alan Ehlers ◽  
Rebecca Bendick ◽  
Konstanze Stübner ◽  
Timo Strube
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Fault Location ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Online Database ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
Interactive Map ◽  
Fault Information

Abstract. Earthquakes represent the highest risk in terms of potential loss of lives and economic damage for central Asian countries. Knowledge of fault location and behavior is essential in calculating and mapping seismic hazard. Previous efforts in compiling fault information for central Asia have generated a large amount of data that are published in limited-access journals with no digital maps publicly available, or are limited in their description of important fault parameters such as slip rates. This study builds on previous work by improving access to fault information through a web-based interactive map and an online database with search capabilities that allow users to organize data by different fields. The data presented in this compilation include fault location, its geographic, seismic, and structural characteristics, short descriptions, narrative comments, and references to peer-reviewed publications. The interactive map displays 1196 fault traces and 34 000 earthquake locations on a shaded-relief map. The online database contains attributes for 123 faults mentioned in the literature, with Quaternary and geodetic slip rates reported for 38 and 26 faults respectively, and earthquake history reported for 39 faults. All data are accessible for viewing and download via http://www.geo.uni-tuebingen.de/faults/. This work has implications for seismic hazard studies in central Asia as it summarizes important fault parameters, and can reduce earthquake risk by enhancing public access to information. It also allows scientists and hazard assessment teams to identify structures and regions where data gaps exist and future investigations are needed.

scholarly journals A Quaternary Fault Database for Central Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 5599-5632
Author(s):  
S. Mohadjer ◽  
T. A. Ehlers ◽  
R. Bendick ◽  
K. Stübner ◽  
T. Strube
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Fault Location ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Online Database ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
Interactive Map ◽  
Fault Information

Abstract. Earthquakes represent the highest risk in terms of potential loss of lives and economic damage for Central Asian countries. Knowledge of fault location and behavior is essential in calculating and mapping seismic hazard. Previous efforts in compiling fault information for Central Asia have generated a large amount of data that are published in limited-access journals with no digital maps publicly available, or are limited in their description of important fault parameters such as slip rates. This study builds on previous work by improving access to fault information through a web-based interactive map and an online database with search capabilities that allow users to organize data by different fields. The data presented in this compilation include fault location, its geographic, seismic and structural characteristics, short descriptions, narrative comments and references to peer-reviewed publications. The interactive map displays 1196 fault segments and 34 000 earthquake locations on a shaded-relief map. The online database contains attributes for 122 faults mentioned in the literature, with Quaternary and geodetic slip rates reported for 38 and 26 faults respectively, and earthquake history reported for 39 faults. This work has implications for seismic hazard studies in Central Asia as it summarizes important fault parameters, and can reduce earthquake risk by enhancing public access to information. It also allows scientists and hazard assessment teams to identify structures and regions where data gaps exist and future investigations are needed.

scholarly journals Which Fault Threatens Me Most? Bridging the Gap Between Geologic Data-Providers and Seismic Risk Practitioners

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oona Scotti ◽  
Francesco Visini ◽  
Joanna Faure Walker ◽  
Laura Peruzza ◽  
Bruno Pace ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
End Users ◽  
Central Apennines ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
Main Fault ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Geologic Data

The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and main faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each main fault. Main faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g., main fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g., 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users 1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, 2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and 3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.

scholarly journals Tectonic Geomorphology and Paleoseismology of the Sharkhai fault: a new source of seismic hazard for Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abeer Al-Ashkar ◽  
Antoine Schlupp ◽  
Matthieu Ferry ◽  
Ulziibat Munkhuu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Tectonic Geomorphology ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract. We present new constraints from tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology along the newly discovered Sharkhai fault near the capital city of Mongolia. Detailed observations from high resolution Pleiades satellite images and field investigations allowed us to map the fault in detail, describe its geometry and segmentation, characterize its kinematics, and document its recent activity and seismic behavior (cumulative displacements and paleoseismicity). The Sharkhai fault displays a surface length of ~40 km with a slightly arcuate geometry, and a strike ranging from N42° E to N72° E. It affects numerous drainages that show left-lateral cumulative displacements reaching 57 m. Paleoseismic investigations document the faulting and deposition record for the last ~3000 yr and reveal that the penultimate earthquake (PE) occurred between 1515 ± 90 BC and 945 ± 110 BC and the most recent event (MRE) occurred after 860 ± 85 AD. The resulting time interval of 2080 ± 470 years is the first constraint on the Sharkhai fault for large earthquakes. On the basis of our mapping of the surface rupture and the resulting segmentation analysis, we propose two possible scenarios for large earthquakes with likely magnitudes between 6.4 ± 0.2 and 7.1 ± 0.2. Furthermore, we apply scaling laws to infer coseismic slip values and derive preliminary estimates of long-term slip rates between 0.2 ± 0.2 and 1.0 ± 0.5 mm/y. Finally, we propose that these original observations and results from a newly discovered fault should be taken into account for the seismic hazard assessment for the city of Ulaanbaatar and help build a comprehensive model of active faults in that region.

scholarly journals Integrating faults and past earthquakes into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for peninsular Italy

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2017-2039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Valentini ◽  
Francesco Visini ◽  
Bruno Pace
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Gaussian Model ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe. Moderate to strong earthquakes, with magnitudes of up to ∼ 7, have been historically recorded for many active faults. Currently, probabilistic seismic hazard assessments in Italy are mainly based on area source models, in which seismicity is modelled using a number of seismotectonic zones and the occurrence of earthquakes is assumed uniform. However, in the past decade, efforts have increasingly been directed towards using fault sources in seismic hazard models to obtain more detailed and potentially more realistic patterns of ground motion. In our model, we used two categories of earthquake sources. The first involves active faults, and using geological slip rates to quantify the seismic activity rate. We produced an inventory of all fault sources with details of their geometric, kinematic, and energetic properties. The associated parameters were used to compute the total seismic moment rate of each fault. We evaluated the magnitude–frequency distribution (MFD) of each fault source using two models: a characteristic Gaussian model centred at the maximum magnitude and a truncated Gutenberg–Richter model. The second earthquake source category involves grid-point seismicity, with a fixed-radius smoothed approach and a historical catalogue were used to evaluate seismic activity. Under the assumption that deformation is concentrated along faults, we combined the MFD derived from the geometry and slip rates of active faults with the MFD from the spatially smoothed earthquake sources and assumed that the smoothed seismic activity in the vicinity of an active fault gradually decreases by a fault-size-driven factor. Additionally, we computed horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Although the ranges and gross spatial distributions of the expected accelerations obtained here are comparable to those obtained through methods involving seismic catalogues and classical zonation models, the spatial pattern of the hazard maps obtained with our model is far more detailed. Our model is characterized by areas that are more hazardous and that correspond to mapped active faults, while previous models yield expected accelerations that are almost uniformly distributed across large regions. In addition, we conducted sensitivity tests to determine the impact on the hazard results of the earthquake rates derived from two MFD models for faults and to determine the relative contributions of faults versus distributed seismic activity. We believe that our model represents advancements in terms of the input data (quantity and quality) and methodology used in the field of fault-based regional seismic hazard modelling in Italy.

scholarly journals Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4383-4397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joakim Beck ◽  
Sören Wolfers ◽  
Gerald P. Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Problem ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Fault Scarp ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Monte Carlo Algorithm ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Chlorine 36

Abstract. Over the past 20 years, analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (36Cl) has emerged as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed that 36Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the timings of past ground displacements during earthquakes, which in turn can be used to improve existing seismic hazard assessment. This approach requires accurate simulations of 36Cl accumulation for a set of fault-scarp rock samples, which are progressively exhumed during earthquakes, in order to infer displacement histories from 36Cl measurements. While the physical models underlying such simulations have continuously been improved, the inverse problem of recovering displacement histories from 36Cl measurements is still mostly solved on an ad hoc basis. The current work resolves this situation by providing a MATLAB implementation of a fast, automatic, and flexible Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the inverse problem, and provides a validation of the 36Cl approach to inference of earthquakes from the demise of the Last Glacial Maximum until present. To demonstrate its performance, we apply our algorithm to a synthetic case to verify identifiability, and to the Fiamignano and Frattura faults in the Italian Apennines in order to infer their earthquake displacement histories and to provide seismic hazard assessments. The results suggest high variability in slip rates for both faults, and large displacements on the Fiamignano fault at times when the Colosseum and other ancient buildings in Rome were damaged.

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 345-371
Author(s):  
Anirudh Rao ◽  
Debashish Dutta ◽  
Pratim Kalita ◽  
Nick Ackerley ◽  
Vitor Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Design Guidelines ◽  
Exposure Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Earthquake Insurance

This study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazard model for India. The vulnerability of the building exposure is combined with the seismic hazard using the stochastic (Monte Carlo) event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine to estimate probabilistic seismic risk metrics such as average annual economic losses and the exceedance probability curves at the national, state, district, and subdistrict levels. The risk model and the underlying datasets, along with the risk metrics calculated at different scales, are intended to be used as tools to quantitatively assess the earthquake risk across India and also compare with other countries to develop risk-informed building design guidelines, for more careful land-use planning, to optimize earthquake insurance pricing, and to enhance general earthquake risk awareness and preparedness.

scholarly journals Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Octavi Gómez-Novell ◽  
Julián García-Mayordomo ◽  
María Ortuño ◽  
Eulàlia Masana ◽  
Thomas Chartier
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Se Spain ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Area Source ◽  
Moderate Seismicity ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Hazard Levels

Including faults as seismogenic sources in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) has turned into a common practice as knowledge of active faults is improving. Moreover, the occurrence of earthquakes in multi-fault ruptures has evidenced the need to understand faults as interacting systems rather than independent sources. We present a PSHA for the Southeastern Spain obtained by including the faults of a moderate seismicity region, the Eastern Betics Shear Zone (EBSZ) in SE Spain, as the main seismogenic sources in two separate source models, one considering background seismicity. In contrast with previous studies in Spain, earthquake occurrence of the EBSZ system is modeled considering different hypotheses of multi-fault ruptures at the whole fault system scale and weighted in a logic tree. We compare the hazard levels with those from an area source PSHA and a previous fault-based approach. The results show a clear control of the EBSZ faults in the seismic hazard for all return periods, increasing drastically the hazard levels in the regions close to the fault traces and influencing up to 20 km farther with respect to the area source PSHA. The seismic hazard is dependent on the fault slip rates as peak ground accelerations and territorial extension of the fault influence appear higher around the Alhama de Murcia and Carboneras faults, while lower slip rate faults (Palomares Fault) show minor contribution to the hazard. For the return period of 475 years and near-fault locations, our models are more consistent with the ground motion values reached in the 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca event than the building code or national seismic hazard map, which suggest that our fault system-based model performs more accurate estimations for this return period. Fault data, mainly slip rates, and its uncertainties have a clear impact on the seismic hazard and, for some faults, the lack of detailed paleoseismic studies can compromise the reliability of the hazard estimations. This, together with epistemic uncertainties concerning the background seismicity, are key discussion points in the present study, having an impact on further research and aiming to serve as a case example for other low-to-moderate seismicity regions worldwide.

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