scholarly journals Climate anomalies associated to the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Paranunzio ◽  
Francesco Laio ◽  
Marta Chiarle ◽  
Guido Nigrelli ◽  
Fausto Guzzetti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change is seriously affecting the cryosphere, in terms, for example of permafrost thaw, alteration of rain/snow ratio, glacier shrinkage. There is concern about the increasing number of rockfalls at high elevation in the last decades. Nevertheless, the impact of climate variables on slope instability at high elevation has not been fully explored yet. In this paper, we investigate 41 rockfalls occurred at high elevation in the Italian Alps between 1997 and 2013 in the absence of an evident trigger. We apply and improve an existing data-based, statistical approach to detect the anomalies of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) associated to rockfall occurrences. The identified climate anomalies have been related to the spatio-temporal distribution of the events. Rockfalls occurred in association with temperature anomalies in 83 % of our case studies. Temperature represents a key factor contributing to slope failure occurrence in different ways. As expected, warmer temperatures accelerate snowmelt and permafrost thaw; however, surprisingly, negative anomalies are also often associated to slope failures. Interestingly, different regional patterns emerge from the data: higher-than-average temperatures are often associated to rockfalls in the Western Alps, while in the Eastern Alps slope failures are mainly associated to colder-than-average temperatures. The results of this study represent a first step towards the identification of the possible role of climate change in the triggering of slope failures in a mountain environment.

scholarly journals Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 2085-2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Paranunzio ◽  
Francesco Laio ◽  
Marta Chiarle ◽  
Guido Nigrelli ◽  
Fausto Guzzetti
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Eastern Alps ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Climate Parameters ◽  
Permafrost Thaw

Abstract. Climate change is seriously affecting the cryosphere in terms, for example, of permafrost thaw, alteration of rain ∕ snow ratio, and glacier shrinkage. There is concern about the increasing number of rockfalls at high elevation in the last decades. Nevertheless, the exact role of climate parameters in slope instability at high elevation has not been fully explored yet. In this paper, we investigate 41 rockfalls listed in different sources (newspapers, technical reports, and CNR IRPI archive) in the elevation range 1500–4200 m a.s.l. in the Italian Alps between 1997 and 2013 in the absence of an evident trigger. We apply and improve an existing data-based statistical approach to detect the anomalies of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) associated with rockfall occurrences. The identified climate anomalies have been related to the spatiotemporal distribution of the events. Rockfalls occurred in association with significant temperature anomalies in 83 % of our case studies. Temperature represents a key factor contributing to slope failure occurrence in different ways. As expected, warm temperatures accelerate snowmelt and permafrost thaw; however, surprisingly, negative anomalies are also often associated with slope failures. Interestingly, different regional patterns emerge from the data: higher-than-average temperatures are often associated with rockfalls in the Western Alps, while in the Eastern Alps slope failures are mainly associated with colder-than-average temperatures.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saddique ◽  
Usman ◽  
Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

scholarly journals An integrated approach to investigate climate-driven rockfall occurrence in high alpine slopes: the Bessanese glacial basin, Western Italian Alps

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2591-2610
Author(s):  
Cristina Viani ◽  
Marta Chiarle ◽  
Roberta Paranunzio ◽  
Andrea Merlone ◽  
Chiara Musacchio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Rock Slopes ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract Rockfalls are one of the most common instability processes in high mountains. They represent a relevant issue, both for the risks they represent for (infra) structures and frequentation, and for their potential role as terrestrial indicators of climate change. This study aims to contribute to the growing topic of the relationship between climate change and slope instability at the basin scale. The selected study area is the Bessanese glacial basin (Western Italian Alps) which, since 2016, has been specifically equipped, monitored and investigated for this purpose. In order to provide a broader context for the interpretation of the recent rockfall events and associated climate conditions, a cross-temporal and integrated approach has been adopted. For this purpose, geomorphological investigations (last 100 years), local climate (last 30 years) and near-surface rock/air temperatures analyses, have been carried out. First research outcomes show that rockfalls occurred in two different geomorphological positions: on rock slopes in permafrost condition, facing from NW to NE and/or along the glacier margins, on rock slopes uncovered by the ice in the last decades. Seasonal thaw of the active layer and/or glacier debutressing can be deemed responsible for slope failure preparation. With regard to timing, almost all dated rock falls occurred in summer. For the July events, initiation may have been caused by a combination of rapid snow melt and enhanced seasonal thaw of the active layer due to anomalous high temperatures, and rainfall. August events are, instead, associated with a significant positive temperature anomaly on the quarterly scale, and they can be ascribed to the rapid and/or in depth thaw of the permafrost active layer. According to our findings, we can expect that in the Bessanese glacierized basin, as in similar high mountain areas, climate change will cause an increase of slope instability in the future. To fasten knowledge deepening, we highlight the need for a growth of a network of high elevation experimental sites at the basin scale, and the definition of shared methodological and measurement standards, that would allow a more rapid and effective comparison of data.

scholarly journals NINE SLOUGHS: PROFILING THE CLIMATE HISTORY OF THE YUAN AND MING DYNASTIES, 1260–1644†

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Brook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Imperial Period ◽  
State And Society ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

I have written this essay to address what I regard as a pressing need among China historians for a stronger model of climate change and its impact on state and society during the imperial period. We have all become acutely conscious of climate change as an element of our own world, yet few of us have considered the impact of climate, particularly climate change, on our subjects of study. China is not without its climate historians, and yet the collective research is still in an early phase. Aware of this problem for some time, I published preliminary findings in the form of a chronological profile of climate anomalies through the Yuan and Ming dynasties in 2010. Burying my findings in a textbook has meant that the periodization offered there has captured the interest of some students but gone largely ignored by scholars in the field. Since then I have done further research and have revised some of those findings, and would now like to offer a fuller presentation of methods and findings.

Understanding the impacts of climate change on high mountain practices: the case of the Mont Blanc massif through an interdisciplinary approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Salim ◽  
Jacques Mourey ◽  
Ludovic Ravanel ◽  
Pierre-Alain Duvillard ◽  
Maëva Cathala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Western Alps ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mont Blanc Massif

<p>The intensity of the current climate change has strong consequences on high mountain tourism activities. Winter activities are currently the most studied (ski industry). However, the consequences of environmental changes are also strong in summer, as geomorphological processes are enhanced at high elevation. The Mont Blanc Massif (Western Alps) is a particularly favourable terrain for the development of research about these processes. Emblematic high summits (28 of the 82 peaks > 4000 m of the Alps), dozens of glaciers, strongly developed tourism with summer/winter equivalence, active mountaineering practice, etc. all contribute to the interest of studying this geographical area. A lot of work has been carried out on glaciological and geomorphological issues. These studies, which deal with "physical" impacts of the climate change on the high mountains, are also supplemented by studies of their consequences on human societies, as its impacts on practices such as mountaineering or glacier tourism. Risk-related issues are also taken into account with, for example, the stability of infrastructure (huts, ski lifts) or the impact of glacial shrinkage on the formation of new and potentially hazardous lakes. Accordingly, the aims of our presentation are to show the extent of the research developed on climate change in the Mont Blanc massif and how social and environmental sciences are interlinked to provide a holistic vision of the issues of this territory. As these experiments are not exactly interdisciplinary experiments, this presentation also aims to discuss the points that need to be further developed in order to promote inter- and trans-disciplinary research.</p>

Flash drought as a new normal in a warming climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yuan ◽  
Yumiao Wang ◽  
Miao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Rapid Onset ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Conventional droughts are creeping climate anomalies that take months or years to fully develop, causing devastating impact silently. In contrast, flash droughts have been considered as a type of drought with more rapid onset, develop and terminate at a shorter time scale. There has been a hot debate on the definition of flash drought, and whether it is necessary to investigate the impact of flash drought given the duration is usually shorter than conventional drought. We clarify that flash drought is not a monster, while it has complete onset and recovery processes as conventional drought. Flash drought expands the conventional drought from seasonal-to-decadal scales to sub-seasonal scale, where synoptic land-atmospheric coupling might become critical for its onset. Focusing on a once-in-a-century flash drought in late summer of 2019, we analyze the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model data and show that climate change caused by anthropogenic activities (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land use change, etc) has increased the likelihood of such drought onset speed by 42±19%. A further analysis based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble simulations over the global land areas shows that there was no significant trend in frequency during 1850-1970, but flash drought became more frequency in the recent 40 years. All these results suggest that climate change accelerates the drought development speed, and flash drought might become as a new normal in a warming climate. The eco-hydrological impact of this “new normal” will also be discussed by investigating FLUXNET in-situ observations and MODIS satellite retrievals.</p>

scholarly journals Influence of Rainfall Intensity on the Stability of Unsaturated Soil Slope: Case Study of R523 Road in Thulamela Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 8824
Author(s):  
Fhatuwani Sengani ◽  
François Mulenga
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Soil Slope ◽  
Numerical Software ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the impact of extreme rainfall on the recurrence of slope instability using the Thulamela Municipality roads (R523) as a case study. To this end, the historical rainfall data of the area of study were analyzed between 1988 and 2018. The results show that a significant increase in rainfall is usually experienced in the summer months of December and January. Following this, the factor of safety (FoS) of slopes of silt clay, clay, and clay loam soils were estimated using the SLIDE simulator (Numerical software “Finite Element Method (FEM)”) under sunny to rainy conditions of the area. A complementary model, FLACSlope (Numerical software “Finite Difference Method (FDM)”), was utilized to simulate FoS and pore water pressure in sunny and rainy conditions of the area. Simulation results show that extreme rainfall has the ability to reduce the shear strength and resistance of the soil slope material. This may explain the recurrent landslides noted in the area. Finally, the water pore pressure has been simulated to increase with the increased water table, which generally pushes the soil particles apart and reduces the stress between the particles resulting in soil slope failure. Extreme rainfall alters the phase of the material solid in a manner that may require further research for a better understanding.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variations of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Determining Climatic Factors in the Taihang Mountains, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3145
Author(s):  
Tingting Kang ◽  
Zeng Li ◽  
Yanchun Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Lower Sensitivity ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an effective measure of atmospheric water demand of the land surface. In-depth investigations of the relationship between ETo and primary climatic factors can facilitate the adaptable agriculture and optimize water management, especially in the ecologically fragile Taihang Mountains (THM). This work assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of ETo and its driving climatic factors from 1973 to 2016 in THM. Results showed: (1) Annual ETo slightly increased during 1973–2016; relative humidity (RH) decreased more slowly, the temperature increased more rapidly, and wind speed (WS) decreased more rapidly at higher elevation than those at lower elevations; (2) two breakpoints occurred in ETo series at 1990 and 1997, and an “evaporation paradox” existed in 1973–1990; (3) ETo at higher elevations had greater sensitivity to changes in RH and lower sensitivity to changes in Tmax and WS. Sensitivity of ETo to minimum air temperature (Tmin) at middle elevations was lowest among three elevation bands; (4) RH and sunshine duration (SD) were the dominant climatic factors of ETo for most periods and stations. This study helps us understand the impact of climate change on ETo in mountainous areas and confirms reference evapotranspiration in high-elevation areas is particularly sensitive to climate change.

A 15,000 year record of vegetation and climate change from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 739-748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Mensing ◽  
John Korfmacher ◽  
Thomas Minckley ◽  
Robert Musselman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Sagebrush Steppe ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Upward Movement ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Vegetation And Climate

Future climate projections predict warming at high elevations that will impact treeline species, but complex topographic relief in mountains complicates ecologic response, and we have a limited number of long-term studies examining vegetation change related to climate. In this study, pollen and conifer stomata were analyzed from a 2.3 m sediment core extending to 15,330 cal. yr BP recovered from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming. Both pollen and stomata record a sequence of vegetation and climate change similar in most respects to other regional studies, with sagebrush steppe and lowered treeline during the Late Pleistocene, rapid upward movement of treeline beginning about 11,500 cal. yr BP, treeline above modern between ~9000 and 6000 cal. yr BP, and then moving downslope ~5000 cal. yr BP, reaching modern limits by ~3000 cal. yr BP. Between 6000 and 5000 cal. yr BP sediments become increasingly organic and sedimentation rates increase. We interpret this as evidence for lower lake levels during an extended dry period with warmer summer temperatures and treeline advance. The complex topography of the Rocky Mountains makes it challenging to identify regional patterns associated with short term climatic variability, but our results contribute to gaining a better understanding of past ecologic responses at high elevation sites.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on the Surface Albedo over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2336
Author(s):  
Chaonan Chen ◽  
Li Tian ◽  
Lianqi Zhu ◽  
Yuanke Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Decrease Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Albedo is a characterization of the Earth’s surface ability to reflect solar radiation, and control the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the land surface. Within the context of global warming, the temporal and spatial changes of the albedo and its response to climate factors remain unclear. Based on MCD43A3 (V005) albedo and meteorological data (i.e., temperature and precipitation), we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of albedo (2000–2016) and its responses to climate change during the growing season on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The results indicated an overall downward trend in the annual albedo during the growing season, the decrease rate was 0.25%/decade, and the monthly albedo showed a similar trend, especially in May, when the decrease rate was 0.53%/decade. The changes also showed regional variations, such as for the annual albedo, the areas with significant decrease and increase in albedo were 181.52 × 103 km2 (13.10%) and 48.82 × 103 km2 (3.52%), respectively, and the intensity of albedo changes in low-elevation areas was more pronounced than in high-elevation areas. In addition, the annual albedo-temperature/precipitation relationships clearly differed at different elevations. The albedo below 2000 m and at 5000–6000 m was mainly negatively correlated with temperature, while at 2000–4000 m it was mainly negatively correlated with precipitation. The contemporaneous temperature could negatively impact the monthly albedo in significant ways at the beginning of the growing season (May and June), whereas in the middle of the growing season (July and August), the albedo was mainly negatively correlated with precipitation, and at the end of the growing season (September), the albedo showed a weak correlation with temperature/precipitation.

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