scholarly journals Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Techel ◽  
Elisabetta Ceaglio ◽  
Cécile Coléou ◽  
Christoph Mitterer ◽  
Samuel Morin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Alps ◽  
The Public ◽  
Spatial Consistency ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Operational Constraints ◽  
Very High ◽  
Danger Level ◽  
Avalanche Danger

Abstract. In the European Alps, the public is provided with regional avalanche forecasts, issued by about 30 forecast centers throughout the winter, covering a spatially contiguous area. A key element in these forecasts is the communication of avalanche danger according to the five-level, ordinal European avalanche danger scale (EADS). Consistency in the application of the avalanche danger levels by the individual forecast centers is essential to ensure the greatest value for users, particularly those utilizing bulletins issued by different forecast centers. As the quality of avalanche forecasts is difficult to verify, due to the categorical nature of the EADS, we investigated forecast goodness by focusing on consistency and bias exploring real forecast danger levels from four winter seasons (477 forecast days). We qualitatively describe the operational constraints associated with the production and communication of the avalanche bulletins, and we propose a methodology to quantitatively explore spatial consistency and bias. We note that the forecast danger level agreed significantly less often when compared across national and forecast center boundaries (about 60 %), as compared to within forecast center boundaries (about 90 %). Furthermore, several forecast centers showed significant systematic differences towards using more frequently lower (or higher) danger levels than their neighbours. Discrepancies seemed to be greatest when analyzing the proportion of forecasts with danger level 4-High and 5-Very High. Operational constraints in the production and communication of avalanche forecasts, such as the size of warning regions, as well as differences in avalanche winter regimes, and variation in the ways the EADS is interpreted locally may contribute to inconsistencies. All these issues highlight the need to further harmonize the forecast production process and the way avalanche hazard is communicated to increase consistency, and hence value for the user.

scholarly journals Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 2697-2716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Techel ◽  
Christoph Mitterer ◽  
Elisabetta Ceaglio ◽  
Cécile Coléou ◽  
Samuel Morin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Alps ◽  
The Public ◽  
Spatial Consistency ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Operational Constraints ◽  
Region Size ◽  
Danger Level ◽  
Avalanche Danger

Abstract. In the European Alps, the public is provided with regional avalanche forecasts, issued by about 30 forecast centers throughout the winter, covering a spatially contiguous area. A key element in these forecasts is the communication of avalanche danger according to the five-level, ordinal European Avalanche Danger Scale (EADS). Consistency in the application of the avalanche danger levels by the individual forecast centers is essential to avoid misunderstandings or misinterpretations by users, particularly those utilizing bulletins issued by different forecast centers. As the quality of avalanche forecasts is difficult to verify, due to the categorical nature of the EADS, we investigated forecast goodness by focusing on spatial consistency and bias, exploring real forecast danger levels from four winter seasons (477 forecast days). We describe the operational constraints associated with the production and communication of the avalanche bulletins, and we propose a methodology to quantitatively explore spatial consistency and bias. We note that the forecast danger level agreed significantly less often when compared across national and forecast center boundaries (about 60 %) than within forecast center boundaries (about 90 %). Furthermore, several forecast centers showed significant systematic differences in terms of more frequently using lower (or higher) danger levels than their neighbors. Discrepancies seemed to be greatest when analyzing the proportion of forecasts with danger level 4 – high and 5 – very high. The size of the warning regions, the smallest geographically clearly specified areas underlying the forecast products, differed considerably between forecast centers. Region size also had a significant impact on all summary statistics and is a key parameter influencing the issued danger level, but it also limits the communication of spatial variations in the danger level. Operational constraints in the production and communication of avalanche forecasts and variation in the ways the EADS is interpreted locally may contribute to inconsistencies and may be potential sources for misinterpretation by forecast users. All these issues highlight the need to further harmonize the forecast production process and the way avalanche hazard is communicated to increase consistency and hence facilitate cross-border forecast interpretation by traveling users.

STRATEGI MENINGKATKAN LOYALITAS KONSUMEN MAKANAN KHAS KOTA CURUP KABUPATEN REJANG LEBONG

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Onsardi Onsardi
Keyword(s):  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Consumer Loyalty ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Typical Food ◽  
Internal And External Factors

The title of this study is the Strategy of Increasing Consumer Food Loyalty in CurupCity, Rejang Lebong Regency (Case Study in "Henvian" Typical Food Industry). Thisresearch is based on the importance of strategies in increasing business and consumerloyalty to products sold.Strategies to increase business and consumer loyalty can bedone with a SWOT analysis. Place of this research is the "Henvian" shop that sellstypical Rejang lebong food. The method used in this study is descriptive qualitative.Informants in this study were people who were considered to know for certain about theHENVIAN Specialty Food Store in Curup City, Rejang Lebong Regency. The dataanalysis technique used in this study is a SWOT analysis to determine the strengths,weaknesses, opportunities and threats in a typical Rejang Lebong food business.By using SWOT analysis techniques that consist of strengths (weakness), weaknesses(weakness), opportunities (opportnity) and threats (threath). The results of this studycan be concluded that the internal factors that are the strength of the marketing strategyare the quality of the product that is good at a price affordable to the public andtourists, service that is friendly and responsive to consumer needs, as well astechnological advancements that facilitate the promotion of business. Internal factorsthat are a weakness are often lack of stock, there are some products that do not meet thestandard packaging, the product shelf life is short, employees do not use uniforms.External factors that become opportunities are a fairly high economic community,abundant raw materials while external factors that are a threat are the manycompetitors, an unstable economy, the price of basic needs increases. Based on theresults of the SWOT analysis of internal and external factors, the strategy used is toimprove product quality by improving the appearance of packaging and quality ofcontent and quality of service by providing uniforms to employees and providingstandards of service to consumers. .Keywords: Strategy, Consumer Loyalty, SWOT

Quality-of-Life Measurement in Advanced Cancer: Assessing the Individual

1999 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 3603-3611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dympna Waldron ◽  
Ciaran A. O'Boyle ◽  
Michael Kearney ◽  
Michael Moriarty ◽  
Desmond Carney
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Advanced Cancer ◽  
Internal Validity ◽  
Semistructured Interview ◽  
Incurable Cancer ◽  
Life Measurement ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Very High

PURPOSE: Despite the increasing importance of assessing quality of life (QoL) in patients with advanced cancer, relatively little is known about individual patient's perceptions of the issues contributing to their QoL. The Schedule for the Evaluation of Individual Quality of Life (SEIQoL) and the shorter SEIQoL–Direct Weighting (SEIQoL-DW) assess individualized QoL using a semistructured interview technique. Here we report findings from the first administration of the SEIQoL and SEIQoL-DW to patients with advanced incurable cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: QoL was assessed on a single occasion using the SEIQoL and SEIQoL-DW in 80 patients with advanced incurable cancer. RESULTS: All patients were able to complete the SEIQoL-DW, and 78% completed the SEIQoL. Of a possible score of 100, the median QoL global score was as follows: SEIQoL, 61 (range, 24 to 94); SEIQoL-DW, 60.5 (range, 6 to 95). Psychometric data for SEIQoL indicated very high levels of internal consistency (median r = .90) and internal validity (median R2 = 0.88). Patients' judgments of their QoL were unique to the individual. Family concerns were almost universally rated as more important than health, the difference being significant when measured using the SEIQoL-DW (P = .002). CONCLUSION: Patients with advanced incurable cancer were very good judges of their QoL, and many patients rated their QoL as good. Judgments were highly individual, with very high levels of consistency and validity. The primacy given to health in many QoL questionnaires may be questioned in this population. The implications of these findings are discussed with regard to clinical assessment and advance directives.

scholarly journals SATISFACTION OF RESIDENTS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF NATURAL DISASTER AREA. CASE STUDY: KUALA KRAI, KELANTAN, MALAYSIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Ling Hoon Leh ◽  
Muhammad Shamsul Azdhar Zulkapli ◽  
Kwong Qi Jie ◽  
Nurul Ashikin Mabahwi
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disaster ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
The Public ◽  
Disaster Area ◽  
Housing Area ◽  
Post Disaster

Referring to the Malaysian National Security Council, disaster is defined as a catastrophic situation that claimed many lives and caused extensive damage to property and potentially endangers the public peace and security. In Malaysia, there were few natural disaster events that can be said to be among the worst ever in terms of the number of deaths and damages. However, these occurrences were not as severe as overseas. At the end of December 2014, there was a catastrophic flood called as the 'Bah Kuning' was hitting the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. It resulted in almost 85% of the total Kuala Krai area inundated by flood water. One of the elements in post-disaster recovery is rebuilding shelter for victims. Regardless, it is important to research on residents’ satisfaction as it will affect the well-being directly or indirectly. Thus, a study was carried out to evaluate the satisfaction of residents (victims) on the “New Permanent Houses” (Rumah Kekal Baharu, RKB) that they received from the redevelopment project. A questionnaire survey was carried out to collect and understand respondents’ satisfaction on the redevelopment of their housing area, in specific, the quality of their newly reconstructed houses and the supporting facilities or infrastructure in their area. From the analysis, it was found that majority of the respondents were satisfied with their newly redeveloped houses and the infrastructure. The satisfaction level was associated with the locational and land ownership factors.

scholarly journals Study on the Difficulties of Building a Service-oriented Government——A Case Study on the Satisfaction of Public Service Quality of Guizhou Province in 2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 02031
Author(s):  
Siyue Liu
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
The Public ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Steady Improvement ◽  
Service Oriented ◽  
Speed Up

This paper explores the difficulties of building a service-oriented government by taking the evaluation results of public service satisfaction of Guizhou province in 2019 as an example. This paper finds that building a service-oriented government is the process of improving the quality of public service in an all-round way. With the steady improvement of the public service quality in China, the public’s expectation of the public service quality has been improved by changing from the original “yes or no” to the current “good or not”. In order to speed up the construction of service-oriented government, government departments should pay attention to the change of public demand and take the comfort, richness and transparency of public service as the key points of quality improvement.

scholarly journals Design for Disassembly and the rehabilitation of public housing stock. A case study

2021 ◽  
pp. 181-191
Author(s):  
Lidia Errante ◽  
Alberto De Capua
Keyword(s):  
Public Housing ◽  
Design Research ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Design For Disassembly ◽  
Sustainable Building ◽  
The Public ◽  
Principles Of Design ◽  
The One

This contribution presents the meta-design research scenario of the sustainable building redevelopment of the INA Casa “Sbarre Inferiori” district in Reggio Calabria based on a twofold reflection. On the one hand, the transformative potential, both technological and formal, of the public housing stock created under the INA Casa Plan. On the other, the extension of the life cycle of the buildings and the improvement of the spatial quality of the housing according to a circular, low-tech and ecological approach. The result is an abacus of technological additions in bio-xlam conceived according to the principles of Design for Disassembly, which allows the reuse of the modules in new spatial and functional configurations, and the remanufacturing and recycling of the elements at the end of their life.

SAFE MOORING OF LARGE CONTAINER SHIPS AT QUAY WALLS SUBJECT TO PASSING SHIP EFFECTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 159 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Van Zwijnsvoorde ◽  
M Vantorre
Keyword(s):  
Design Parameter ◽  
Operational Parameter ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Large Container

Container traffic and individual ships’ sizes increased dramatically over the last decades, testing the existing harbour infrastructure to its limits. An important aspect regarding the safety of the berthed vessel is the quality of the mooring configuration. A case study is presented, where an 18000 TEU container vessel is moored at a quay. The motions of the moored vessel and the forces in its lines due to ship passages are simulated, using the potential software ROPES and the UGent in-house package Vlugmoor. Focus is on the mooring plan (operational parameter) and the characteristics of the individual lines (design parameter).

The Impact of Cutbacks From a Major State Financial Crisis on Organizational Trust

2021 ◽  
pp. 027507402110530
Author(s):  
Marco Tulio Zanini ◽  
Carmen Migueles ◽  
Juliana Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Organizational Trust ◽  
Longitudinal Case Study ◽  
Public Servants ◽  
Negative Behaviors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

Previous research has shown that cutbacks in public spending often impact the range and quality of the public services delivered, leading to negative behaviors on the part of public servants. This article examines how sudden cutbacks caused by a major state financial crisis have an impact on interpersonal trust within a special police unit. We present the results of a longitudinal case study using a combination of qualitative methods. The lack of foreseeability and reliability caused by drastic changes resulting from cutbacks has a negative effect on members’ trust in their capacity to perform.

Post-unification (East) German Documentary and the Contradictions of Identity

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barton Byg
Keyword(s):  
West Germany ◽  
Berlin Wall ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
East And West Germany ◽  
East German ◽  
Innovative Enterprise ◽  
East And West ◽  
The Individual

This chapter focuses on the three major themes that have helped make the integration between East and West German documentary filmmakers successful and have contributed new strengths to German independent documentary as a productive and innovative enterprise. It first illustrates the phenomenon of collaboration between filmmakers from both East and West Germany, which preceded the fall of the Berlin Wall and provides the basis for unique accomplishments in documentary. Then, partly based on these East–West collaborations, it discuss examples of German documentary's frequent explorations of non-European topics, which challenge the clear separation of European and non-European in both politics and film art. Here, the film collaborations between Helga Reidemeister and Lars Barthel will serve as a case study. Finally, also as a result of decades of experimentation with the nature of the film medium's presentation of ‘reality’, ‘history’, and the individual human subject, Thomas Heise's German ‘portrait film’ Barluschke (1997) is explored as an example of this defining quality of independent German documentary filmmaking in the context of the post-Cold War.

Additional Opinions and Judicial Diversity at the International Court of Justice

2020 ◽  
pp. 246-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemi Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
International Court Of Justice ◽  
The Public ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
International Court ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Additional opinions—that is, dissenting opinions, separate opinions, and declarations—are, by definition, the primary institutional mechanism through which judges can express their individual views on a particular decision, as distinct from the judgment or decision proclaimed on behalf of the institution. Therefore, within the public sphere they are the principal institutional manifestation of the individual—and thus the individuality—of the judge. Consequently, for those who seek to understand the impact of certain personal characteristics upon how a judge discharges their professional functions and, in turn, the wider institutional and systemic implications of the participation of individuals bearing those characteristics, the study of additional opinions would seem a useful analytical enterprise. Using gender diversity at the International Court of Justice as a case study, the purpose of this chapter is twofold: first, to explain the relationship between diversity and additional opinions, and second, to explore the methodological potential, and challenges, that the study of additional opinions entails.

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