scholarly journals Controls on the formation and size of potential landslide dams and dammed lakes in the Austrian Alps

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1615-1637
Author(s):  
Anne-Laure Argentin ◽  
Jörg Robl ◽  
Günther Prasicek ◽  
Stefan Hergarten ◽  
Daniel Hölbling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Fluid Dynamic ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Austrian Alps ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Landslide Dams ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Lake Size

Abstract. Controls on landsliding have long been studied, but the potential for landslide-induced dam and lake formation has received less attention. Here, we model possible landslides and the formation of landslide dams and lakes in the Austrian Alps. We combine a slope criterion with a probabilistic approach to determine landslide release areas and volumes. We then simulate the progression and deposition of the landslides with a fluid dynamic model. We characterize the resulting landslide deposits with commonly used metrics, investigate their relation to glacial land-forming and tectonic units, and discuss the roles of the drainage system and valley shape. We discover that modeled landslide dams and lakes cover a wide volume range. In line with real-world inventories, we further found that lake volume increases linearly with landslide volume in the case of efficient damming – when an exceptionally large lake is dammed by a relatively small landslide deposit. The distribution and size of potential landslide dams and lakes depends strongly on local topographic relief. For a given landslide volume, lake size depends on drainage area and valley geometry. The largest lakes form in glacial troughs, while the most efficient damming occurs where landslides block a gorge downstream of a wide valley, a situation preferentially encountered at the transition between two different tectonic units. Our results also contain inefficient damming events, a damming type that exhibits different scaling of landslide and lake metrics than efficient damming and is hardly reported in inventories. We assume that such events also occur in the real world and emphasize that their documentation is needed to better understand the effects of landsliding on the drainage system.

scholarly journals Controls on the formation of potential landslide dams and dammed lakes in the Austrian Alps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Laure Argentin ◽  
Jörg Robl ◽  
Günther Prasicek ◽  
Stefan Hergarten ◽  
Daniel Hölbling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Fluid Dynamic ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
Austrian Alps ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Landslide Dams ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Lake Formation

Abstract. Controls on landsliding have long been studied, but the potential for landslide-induced dam and lake formation has received less attention. Here, we model possible landslides and the formation of landslide dams and lakes in the Austrian Alps. We combine a slope criterion with a probabilistic approach to determine landslide release areas and volumes. We then simulate the progression and deposition of the landslides with a fluid dynamic model. We characterize the resulting landslide deposits with commonly used metrics, investigate their relation to glacial land-forming and tectonic units, and discuss the roles of the drainage system and valley shape. Modeled landslide dams and lakes cover a wide volume range and lake volume increases linearly with landslide volume in case of efficient damming, i.e. small landslides damming large lakes, which is in line with real-world inventories. The distribution and size of potential landslide dams and lakes depends strongly on local topographic relief. For a given landslide volume, lake size depends on drainage area and valley geometry. Largest lakes form in glacial troughs, while most efficient damming occurs where landslides block a gorge downstream of a wide valley, a situation preferentially encountered at the transition between two different tectonic units. Our results also contain inefficient damming events, a damming type that exhibits different scaling of landslide and lake metrics than efficient damming, and is hardly reported in inventories. We hypothesize that such events also occur in the real world and need documentation to better understand the effects of landsliding on the drainage system.

Landslide dam susceptibility in the Austrian Alps inferred from modelled landslides, potential valley damming and lake formation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Laure Argentin ◽  
Günther Prasicek ◽  
Jörg Robl ◽  
Daniel Hölbling ◽  
Lorena Abad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Landslide Dam ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Flow Solver ◽  
Austrian Alps ◽  
Natural Hazard Mitigation ◽  
Landslide Dams ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Lake Formation

<p>In mountain landscapes, landslides often block river courses. Although landslides are well-known threats, the risks imposed by landslide dams are sometimes neglected. The impeding of a river can lead to the submergence of parts of the upstream valley and a failure of the dam can flood downstream terrain in a catastrophic event.</p><p>Our aim is two-fold: we are interested in creating a landslide dam susceptibility map relying on <span>model</span><span>led</span><span> landslides and resulting damming of valleys and formation of lakes</span>, and in studying the relation between the occurrence of landslide dams and lithology.</p><p>Landslide susceptibility maps are a common tool for natural hazard mitigation, but landslide dam susceptibility maps are rarely produced. Several simple indices (Blockage Index, Backstow Index) have been developed to predict the obstruction capacity and stability of landslides on a river from landslide and catchment characteristics (landslide volume, catchment area, dam height etc.). However, those methods were applied on observed landslides, and did not consider landslide susceptibility. Here, we created a first modelling-based landslide dam susceptibility map and compared it to the results provided by the indices.</p><p>Although the relation between lithology and landsliding has been thoroughly studied, no connection with dam formation has been highlighted so far. Lithology has an impact on various characteristics of the landslide, including its volume, and also influences valley geometry. We investigated if some alpine lithological units are more prone to landslide dam formation than others.</p><p><span>In our modelling approach we used a </span><span>10 m </span><span>DEM of</span> the Austrian Alps and <span>stochastically triggered landslides based on </span><span>slope</span> <span>thresholds</span>. We then simulated the runout of the landslides using a fluid flow solver. For each landslide deposit we computed the maximum dammed volume by filling the landslide-dammed DEM, and compared those volumes to the lithology. We also tested the different theoretical geomorphological indices to predict the impounding of the river and compared them to the actual results provided by our method.</p>

scholarly journals Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Round ◽  
Silvan Leinss ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Christoph Haemmig ◽  
Irena Hajnsek
Keyword(s):  
Water Pressure ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
High Water ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Landsat Satellite ◽  
Subglacial Drainage

Abstract. The recent surge cycle of Kyagar Glacier, in the Chinese Karakoram, caused formation of an ice-dammed lake and subsequent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) exceeding 50 and 40 million m3 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. GLOFs from Kyagar Glacier reached double this size in 2002 and earlier, but the role of glacier surging in GLOF formation was previously unrecognised. We present an integrative analysis of the glacier surge dynamics from 2011 to 2016, assessing surge mechanisms and evaluating the surge cycle impact on GLOFs. Over 80 glacier surface velocity fields were created from TanDEM-X, Sentinel-1A and Landsat satellite data. Changes in ice thickness distribution were revealed by a time series of TanDEM-X DEMs. The analysis shows that during a quiescence phase lasting at least 14 years, ice mass built up in a reservoir area at the top of the glacier tongue and the terminus thinned by up to 100 m, but in the two years preceding the surge this pattern reversed. The surge clearly initiated with the onset of the 2014 melt season, and in the following 15 months velocity evolved in a manner consistent with a hydrologically-controlled surge mechanism with dramatic accelerations coinciding with melt seasons, winter deceleration accompanied by subglacial drainage, and rapid surge termination following the 2015 GLOF. Rapid basal motion during surging is seemingly controlled by high water pressure caused by input of surface water into either an inefficient subglacial drainage system or unstable subglacial till. Over 60 m of thickening at the terminus caused potential lake volume to increase more than 40-fold since surge onset, to currently more than 70 million m3, indicating that lake formation should be carefully monitored to anticipate large GLOFs in the near future.

scholarly journals Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 723-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Round ◽  
Silvan Leinss ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Christoph Haemmig ◽  
Irena Hajnsek
Keyword(s):  
Water Pressure ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
High Water ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Landsat Satellite ◽  
Subglacial Drainage

Abstract. The recent surge cycle of Kyagar Glacier, in the Chinese Karakoram, caused formation of an ice-dammed lake and subsequent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) exceeding 40 million m3 in 2015 and 2016. GLOFs from Kyagar Glacier reached double this size in 2002 and earlier, but the role of glacier surging in GLOF formation was previously unrecognised. We present an integrative analysis of the glacier surge dynamics from 2011 to 2016, assessing surge mechanisms and evaluating the surge cycle impact on GLOFs. Over 80 glacier surface velocity fields were created from TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), Sentinel-1A, and Landsat satellite data. Changes in ice thickness distribution were revealed by a time series of TanDEM-X elevation models. The analysis shows that, during a quiescence phase lasting at least 14 years, ice mass built up in a reservoir area at the top of the glacier tongue, and the terminus thinned by up to 100 m, but in the 2 years preceding the surge onset this pattern reversed. The surge initiated with the onset of the 2014 melt season, and in the following 15 months velocity evolved in a manner consistent with a hydrologically controlled surge mechanism. Dramatic accelerations coincided with melt seasons, winter deceleration was accompanied by subglacial drainage, and rapid surge termination occurred following the 2015 GLOF. Rapid basal motion during the surge is seemingly controlled by high water pressure, caused by input of surface water into either an inefficient subglacial drainage system or unstable subglacial till. The potential lake volume increased to more than 70 million m3 by late 2016, as a result of over 60 m of thickening at the terminus. Lake formation and the evolution of the ice dam height should be carefully monitored through remote sensing to anticipate large GLOFs in the near future.

A global inventory of potential future glacial lakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Frey ◽  
Holger Frey ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Simon Allen ◽  
Daniel Farinotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Routing Algorithm ◽  
Total Surface Area ◽  
Glacier Retreat ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
First Order ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Global Inventory

<p>A prominent phenomenon accompanying glacier retreat is the formation of new lakes. Such glacial lakes are the subject of numerous studies and investigations due to their potential to produce far-reaching glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), but also because they might provide opportunities for water resource management and energy production. Here we present a first global inventory of potential future glacial lakes, along with expected formation times under different RCP scenarios.</p><p>From published datasets of ice thickness distributions of all glaciers of the world, we identified glacier bed overdeepenings and extracted parameters of potential future lakes, such as area, depth and volume. The consideration of the ensemble of ice thicknesses allowed for a first-order quantification of uncertainties. We identified 67,000 (ranging from 55,000 to 87,000) overdeepenings with volumes larger than 1 x 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, the total surface area and volume of corresponding potential lakes is 61,000 (56,000 to 64,000) km<sup>2</sup> and 4,600 (3,100 to 7,200) km<sup>3</sup>, respectively. However, these numbers are based on the assumption of fully water-filled overdeepenings and therefore represent upper bound estimates. Global results are strongly influenced by very large depressions identified beneath (flat) polar glaciers and ice caps.  We then combined potential future lake sites with estimated future glacier extents from a global glacier evolution model (GloGEM), in order to estimate formation periods of these future lakes, considering different RCPs. Strong regional differences are also found in the anticipated formation periods: While in the low latitudes most future lakes are expected to form in the current decade, irrespective of the RCP, Arctic regions have highest lake formation rates towards the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, with the majority of bed overdeepening not being exposed by glacier retreat until 2100. In mid latitude mountain regions, large differences between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 exist in regard of the timing of lake formation and the amount of total uncovered overdeepenings.</p><p>In addition to geometric properties and expected formation periods, the topographic potential for impacting mass movements, such as rock or ice avalanches, is determined for each overdeepening. In combination with potential lake volume and watershed area of the lake, these characteristics can be used for a first order estimation of lake outburst susceptibility. With a basic flow routing algorithm, potential outburst trajectories are modeled for each overdeepening. In combination with information on population density, settlements and further socio-economic and environmental datasets, this information can be used for future analyses of hazards, risks and opportunities associated with these potential future glacial lakes.</p>

Multipath Bayesian Map Construction Model from Sonar Data

Robotica ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 527-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Hwan Lim ◽  
Dong Woo Chof†
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Robot ◽  
Real World ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Bayesian Reasoning ◽  
Occupancy Probability ◽  
Map Construction ◽  
Sonar Sensor ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Construction Model ◽  
Wrong Interpretation

SUMMARYA new model for the construction of a sonar map in a specular environment has been developed and implemented. In a real world, where most of the object surfaces are specular ones, a sonar sensor surfers from a multipath effect which results in a wrong interpretation of an object's location. To reduce this effect and hence to construct a reliable map of a robot's surroundings, a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian reasoning is adopted to both evaluation of object orientations and estimation of an occupancy probability of a cell by an object. The usefulness of this approach is illustrated with the results produced by our mobile robot equipped with ultrasonic sensors.

scholarly journals A brief communication of shispar glacier surge in 2018, hunza river basin, Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alamgeer Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Negative Temperature ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Driving Mechanisms ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Karakoram Highway ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood ◽  
Lake Size ◽  
Hunza River ◽  
Day By Day

Glacier surging is a common phenomenon in the Karakoram region, but the driving mechanisms, their occurrence and its relation to a changing climate remain are unclear. In this study, we use Sentinel imagery to quantify advancement of the Shispar glacier during a surge in 2018. Results reveal that Shispar glacier starts rapid surging from Jun 2018. The peak surge is in August 2018. Our data reveal that glacier dammed the Hassanabad stream as result lake formation in upstream area and drainage of the lake also blocked. The surging is continuing and size of newly formed glacier lake is also increasing day by day. Currently, the inflow to lake is very low due to low melting (negative temperature) from the upstream glacier. This inflow of glacier meltwater will be an increase in the summer season, which may grow in lake size and could pose threats to downstream settlements and infrastructure (irrigation channels, powerhouses and bridge at Karakoram Highway (KKH) in the case of a sudden breach in the form of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Currently the damages the powerhouse channel and damage the irrigation channel of Aliabad Hunza. This study recommended that there is a need for monitoring of glacier lake size and blockage area using remote sensing data i.e. satellite images and UAV.  

A stochastic approach for automatic generation of urban drainage systems

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1137-1143 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Möderl ◽  
D. Butler ◽  
W. Rauch
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Real World ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Automatic Generation ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Sewer System ◽  
Urban Drainage System ◽  
Drainage Systems ◽  
Urban Drainage Systems

Typically, performance evaluation of new developed methodologies is based on one or more case studies. The investigation of multiple real world case studies is tedious and time consuming. Moreover extrapolating conclusions from individual investigations to a general basis is arguable and sometimes even wrong. In this article a stochastic approach is presented to evaluate new developed methodologies on a broader basis. For the approach the Matlab-tool “Case Study Generator” is developed which generates a variety of different virtual urban drainage systems automatically using boundary conditions e.g. length of urban drainage system, slope of catchment surface, etc. as input. The layout of the sewer system is based on an adapted Galton-Watson branching process. The sub catchments are allocated considering a digital terrain model. Sewer system components are designed according to standard values. In total, 10,000 different virtual case studies of urban drainage system are generated and simulated. Consequently, simulation results are evaluated using a performance indicator for surface flooding. Comparison between results of the virtual and two real world case studies indicates the promise of the method. The novelty of the approach is that it is possible to get more general conclusions in contrast to traditional evaluations with few case studies.

scholarly journals Structured Probabilistic End-to-End Learning from Crowds

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhijun Chen ◽  
Huimin Wang ◽  
Hailong Sun ◽  
Pengpeng Chen ◽  
Tao Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Real World ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Probabilistic Interpretation ◽  
End To End ◽  
Real World Datasets ◽  
The Relationship

End-to-end learning from crowds has recently been introduced as an EM-free approach to training deep neural networks directly from noisy crowdsourced annotations. It models the relationship between true labels and annotations with a specific type of neural layer, termed as the crowd layer, which can be trained using pure backpropagation. Parameters of the crowd layer, however, can hardly be interpreted as annotator reliability, as compared with the more principled probabilistic approach. The lack of probabilistic interpretation further prevents extensions of the approach to account for important factors of annotation processes, e.g., instance difficulty. This paper presents SpeeLFC, a structured probabilistic model that incorporates the constraints of probability axioms for parameters of the crowd layer, which allows to explicitly model annotator reliability while benefiting from the end-to-end training of neural networks. Moreover, we propose SpeeLFC-D, which further takes into account instance difficulty. Extensive validation on real-world datasets shows that our methods improve the state-of-the-art.

scholarly journals A new global landslide dam database (RAGLAD) and analysis utilizing auxiliary global fluvial datasets

Landslides ◽  
2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Wu ◽  
Mark A. Trigg ◽  
William Murphy ◽  
Raul Fuentes
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Dam ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Landslide Dams ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Geomorphological Parameters ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Relationship Of

AbstractTo address the current data and understanding knowledge gap in landslide dam inventories related to geomorphological parameters, a new global-scale landslide dam dataset named River Augmented Global Landslide Dams (RAGLAD) was created. RAGLAD is a collection of landslide dam records from multiple data sources published in various languages and many of these records we have been able to precisely geolocate. In total, 779 landslide dam records were compiled from 34 countries/regions. The spatial distribution, time trend, triggers, and geomorphological characteristic of the landslides and catchments where landslide dams formed are summarized. The relationships between geomorphological characteristics for landslides that form river dams are discussed and compared with those of landslides more generally. Additionally, a potential threshold for landslide dam formation is proposed, based on the relationship of landslide volume to river width. Our findings from our analysis of the value of the use of additional fluvial datasets to augment the database parameters indicate that they can be applied as a reliable supplemental data source, when the landslide dam records were accurately and precisely geolocated, although location precision in smaller river catchment areas can result in some uncertainty at this scale. This newly collected and supplemented dataset will allow the analysis and development of new relationships between landslides located near rivers and their actual propensity to block those particular rivers based on their geomorphology.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document