scholarly journals Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 629-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. K. Korotaev ◽  
T. Oguz ◽  
V. L. Dorofeyev ◽  
S. G. Demyshev ◽  
A. I. Kubryakov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
General Description ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Made In

Abstract. The paper presents the development of the Black Sea community nowcasting and forecasting system under the Black Sea GOOS initiative and the EU framework projects ARENA, ASCABOS and ECOOP. One of the objectives of the Black Sea Global Ocean Observing System project is a promotion of the nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea, in order to implement the operational oceanography in the Black Sea region. The first phase in the realization of this goal was the development of the pilot nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea circulation in the framework of project ARENA funded by the EU. The ARENA project included the implementation of advanced modeling and data assimilation tools for near real time prediction. Further progress in development of the Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system was made in the frame of ASCABOS project, which was targeted at strengthening the communication system, ensuring flexible and operative infrastructure for data and information exchange between the Black Sea partners and end-users. The improvement of the system was made in the framework of the ECOOP project. As a result it was transformed into a real-time mode operational nowcasting and forecasting system. The paper provides the general description of the main parts of the system: circulation and ecosystem models, data assimilation approaches, the system architecture as well as their qualitative and quantitative calibrations.

scholarly journals Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 917-954 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. K. Korotaev ◽  
T. Oguz ◽  
V. L. Dorofeyev ◽  
S. G. Demyshev ◽  
A. I. Kubryakov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
General Description ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Made In

Abstract. The paper presents the development of the Black Sea community nowcasting and forecasting system under the Black Sea GOOS initiative and the EU framework projects ARENA, ASCABOS and ECOOP. One of the objectives of the Black Sea Global Ocean Observing System project is a promotion of the nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea, in order to implement the operational oceanography in the Black Sea region. The first phase in the realization of this goal was the development of the pilot nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea circulation in the framework of project ARENA funded by the EU. The ARENA project included the implementation of advanced modeling and data assimilation tools for near real time prediction. Further progress in development of the Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system was made in the frame of ASCABOS project, which was targeted at strengthening the communication system, ensuring flexible and operative infrastructure for data and information exchange between the Black Sea partners and end-users. The improvement of the system was made in the framework of the ECOOP project. As a result it was transformed into a real-time mode operational nowcasting and forecasting system. The paper provides the general description of the main parts of the system: circulation and ecosystem models, data assimilation approaches, the system architecture as well as their qualitative and quantitative calibrations.

The BS-MFC service and system evolutions within Copernicus Marine Service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atanas Palazov ◽  
Stefania A. Ciliberti ◽  
Rita Lecci ◽  
Marilaure Gregoire ◽  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Core Model ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Time System ◽  
Real Time System ◽  
Black Sea Region

<p>The BS-MFC (Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Centre) since 2016 is guaranteeing production and delivery of high quality ocean analysis, forecast and reanalysis fields for essential variables, biogeochemical quantities and waves in the Black Sea region within the Copernicus Marine Service. A reliable and robust service infrastructure serves both the production systems and data delivery, through ad hoc technical interfaces, for an efficient update of the catalogue, which includes 22 datasets for physical variables, 22 for biogeochemical variables and 4 for waves. Additionally, a Local Service Desk is in charge for ensuring connections among BS-MFC, CMEMS and Users with the scope to support end-users in using BS-MFC data for downstream applications from the technical and scientific perspectives. The production centres are the core of the BS-MFC: Physics, Biogeochemistry and Waves units implemented, over the Copernicus 2 Programme, state-of-the-art and advanced numerical approaches to improve the quality of the near real time and multi year products. In the 2020, in particular, the BS-Physics team proposed a new reanalysis product, based on new version of the hydrodynamical core model, based on NEMO v3.6, with assimilation of CMEMS observations (e.g. insitu temperature and salinity profiles, including also historical dataset provided by SeaDataNet, and sea level anomaly satellite data) and forced by ECMWF ERA5. The BS-Physics team is working also on preparing the new version of the near real time system, that will provide spatial high resolution analysis and forecast products, using a new version based on NEMO v4.0, online coupled to data assimilation scheme, with optimal interface with the Mediterranean Sea. BS-Biogeochemistry team updated the overall catalogue, with new near real time system, based on NEMO v3.6 online coupled to BAHMBI model, with new carbonate model, able to assimilate new chlorophyll satellite data provided by the CMEMS OC TAC; regarding multi year product, the BS-Biogeochemistry team delivered new datasets, generated by the new NEMO-BAHMBI coupled system forced by ECMWF ERA5 – totally aligned with the near real time system, without data assimilation – for reconstructing the past biogeochemical sea state in the Black Sea. BS-Waves team updated the overall catalogue as well, with new near real time system based on state-of-the-art WAM Cycle 6.0, one-way coupled with hourly currents fields provided by the BS-Physics near real time system; a new reanalysis, from 1979 to 2019, has been also delivered, based on same core model as the near real time system, forced by ECMWF ERA5 atmospheric forcing, and able to assimilate the significant wave height provided by CMEMS SL TAC. Systems are monitored through a product quality dashboard, based on standards inherited from GODAE/Oceanpredict and MERSEA/MyOcean (which includes CLASS 1, 2 and 4 metrics).</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Lack of marine entry into Marmara and Black Sea-lakes indicate low relative sea level during MIS 3 in the northeastern Mediterranean

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasia G. Yanchilina ◽  
Celine Grall ◽  
William B. F. Ryan ◽  
Jerry F. McManus ◽  
Candace O. Major
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Independent Data ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Mis 3 ◽  
History Of ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage 3

Abstract. The Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) is considered a period of persistent and rapid climate and sea level variabilities during which eustatic sea level is observed to have varied by tens of meters. Constraints on local sea level during this time are critical for further estimates of these variabilities. We here present constraints on relative sea level in the Marmara and Black Sea regions in the northeastern Mediterranean, inferred from reconstructions of the history of the connections and disconnections (partial or total) of these seas together with the global ocean. We use a set of independent data from seismic imaging and core-analyses to infer that the Marmara and Black Seas remained connected persistent freshwater lakes that outflowed to the global ocean during the majority of MIS 3. Marine water intrusion during the early MIS-3 stage may have occurred into the Marmara Sea-Lake but not the Black Sea-Lake. This suggests that the relative sea level was near the paleo-elevation of the Bosporus sill and possibly slightly above the Dardanelles paleo-elevation, ~80 mbsl. The Eustatic sea level may have been even lower, considering the isostatic effects of the Eurasian ice sheet would have locally uplifted the topography of the northeastern Mediterrranean.

scholarly journals Experiencing Europeanization in the Black Sea and South Caucasus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Reisner
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Governance Reform ◽  
European Studies ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Norm Diffusion ◽  
The Eu

The book series European Studies in the Caucasus offers innovative perspectives on regional studies of the Caucasus. By embracing the South Caucasus as well as Turkey and Russia, it moves away from a traditional viewpoint of European Studies that considers the countries of the region as objects of Europeanization. This second volume demonstrates this by looking into forms of inter-regionalism in the Black Sea–South Caucasus area in fields of economic cooperation, Europeanization of energy and environmental policies, discussing how the region is addressed in the elaboration of a new German Eastern Policy. In the section on norm diffusion, the contributors assess the normative power strategy of the EU and its paradoxes in the region, its impact on civil society development in Armenia, and democracy promotion in Georgia. In the section on legal approximation, issues of a global climate change regime and competition law in Georgia as well as penitentiary governance reform in the South Caucasus according to EU standards and policies are analyzed. All contributions also review regional or local contestations for the topics discussed here.

Evaluation of the new high resolution unstructured grid Marmara Sea model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Ilicak ◽  
Ivan Federico ◽  
Ivano Barletta ◽  
Nadia Pinardi ◽  
Stefania Angela Ciliberti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Unstructured Grid ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Forecasting System

<p>Marmara Sea including Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits (i.e. Turkish Strait Systems, TSS) is the connection between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The exchange flow that occurs in the Straits is crucial to set the deep water properties in the Black Sea and the surface water conditions in the Northern Aegean Sea. We have developed a new high-resolution unstructured grid model (U-TSS) for the Marmara Sea including the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits using the System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules (SHYFEM). Using an unstructured grid in the horizontal better resolves geometry of the Turkish Straits. The new model has a resolution between 500 meter in the deep to 50 meter in the shallow areas, and 93 geopotential coordinate levels in the vertical. We conducted a 4 year hindcast simulation between 2016 and 2019 using lateral boundary conditions from CMEMS (https://marine.copernicus.eu/) analysis, in particular Black Sea Forecasting System (BS-FS) for the northern boundary and Mediterranean Sea Forecasting System (MS-FS) for the southern boundary. Atmospheric boundary conditions fare from the ECMWF dataset.</p><p>Mean averaged surface circulation shows that there is a cyclonic gyre in the middle of the basin due to Bosphorus jet flowing to the south and turning to west after reaching the southern Marmara coast. The U-TSS model has been validated against the seasonal in situ observations obtained from four different cruises between 2017 and 2018. The maximum bias occurs at around halocline depth between 20 to 30 meters.  We also found that root mean square error field is higher in the mixed layer interface. We conclude that capturing shallow mixed layer depth is very in the Marmara Sea due to the interplay of air-sea fluxes and mixing parametrizations uncertainties. Maximum salinity bias and rms in the new U-TSS model are around 3 psu which is a significant improvement with respect to previous studies. This new model will be used as an operational forecasting system and will provide lateral boundary conditions for the BS-FS and MS-FS models in the future.</p>

The new Black Sea Reanalysis System within CMEMS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Lima ◽  
Stefania Angela Ciliberti ◽  
Ali Aydogdu ◽  
Romain Escudier ◽  
Simona Masina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Sea Level Anomaly

<p>Ocean reanalyses are becoming increasingly important to reconstruct and provide an overview of the ocean state from the past to the present-day. These products require advanced scientific methods and techniques to produce a more accurate ocean representation. In the scope of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), a new Black Sea (BS) reanalysis, BS-REA (BSE3R1 system), has been produced by using an advanced variational data assimilation method to combine the best available observations with a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. The hydrodynamical model is based on Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO, v3.6), implemented for the BS domain with horizontal resolution of 1/27° x 1/36°, and 31 unevenly distributed vertical levels. NEMO is forced by atmospheric surface fluxes computed via bulk formulation and forced by ECMWF ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis product. At the surface, the model temperature is relaxed to daily objective analysis fields of sea surface temperature from CMEMS SST TAC. The exchange with Mediterranean Sea is simulated through relaxation of the temperature and salinity near Bosporus toward a monthly climatology computed from a high-resolution multi-year simulation, and the barotropic Bosporus Strait transport is corrected to balance the variations of the freshwater flux and the sea surface height measured by multi-satellite altimetry observations. A 3D-Var ocean data assimilation scheme (OceanVar) is used to assimilate sea level anomaly along-track observations from CMEMS SL TAC and available in situ vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from both SeaDataNet and CMEMS INS TAC products. Comparisons against the previous Black Sea reanalysis (BSE2R2 system) show important improvements for temperature and salinity, such that errors have significantly decreased (about 50%). Temperature fields present a continuous warming in the layer between 25-150 m, within which there is the presence of the Black Sea Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL). SST exhibits a positive bias and relatively higher root mean square error (RMSE) values are present in the summer season. Spatial maps of sea level anomaly reveal the largest RMSE close to the shelf areas, which are related to the mesoscale activity along the Rim current. The BS-REA catalogue includes daily and monthly means for 3D temperature, salinity, and currents and 2D sea surface height, bottom temperature, mixed layer fields, from Jan 1993 to Dec 2019.  The BSE3R1 system has produced very accurate estimates which makes it very suitable for assessing more realistic climate trends and indicators for important ocean properties.</p>

scholarly journals Black Sea coastal forecasting system

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Kubryakov ◽  
G. K. Korotaev ◽  
V. L. Dorofeev ◽  
Y. B. Ratner ◽  
A. Palazov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Crimea ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
System Project

Abstract. The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system) project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum in the Black Sea as depicted by BGC-Argo floats

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Capet ◽  
florian ricour ◽  
Fabrizio D'Ortenzio ◽  
Bruno Delille ◽  
Marilaure Grégoire
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Deep Chlorophyll Maximum ◽  
Phytoplankton Productivity ◽  
Spatial Homogeneity ◽  
Argo Floats ◽  
Chlorophyll Maximum ◽  
Basin Scale

<p>The deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is a well known feature of the global ocean. However, its description and the study of its formation are a  challenge, especially in the peculiar environment that is the Black Sea. The retrieval of chlorophyll a (Chla) from fluorescence (Fluo) profiles recorded by biogeochemical-Argo (BGC-Argo) floats is not trivial in the Black Sea, due to the very high content of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) which contributes to the fluorescence signal and produces an apparent increase of the Chla concentration with depth.</p><p>Here, we revised Fluo correction protocols for the Black Sea context using co-located in-situ high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and BGC-Argo measurements. The processed set of Chla data (2014–2019) is then used to provide a systematic description of the seasonal DCM dynamics in the Black Sea and to explore different hypotheses concerning the mechanisms underlying its development.</p><p>Our results show that the corrections applied to the Chla profiles are consistent with HPLC data. In the Black Sea, the DCM begins to form in March, throughout the basin, at a density level set by the previous winter mixed layer. During a first phase (April-May), the DCM remains attached to this particular layer. The spatial homogeneity of this feature suggests a hysteresis mechanism, i.e., that the DCM structure locally influences environmental conditions rather than adapting instantaneously to external factors.</p><p>In a second phase (July-September), the DCM migrates upward, where there is higher irradiance, which suggests the interplay of biotic factors. Overall, the DCM concentrates around 45 to 65% of the total chlorophyll content within a 10 m layer centered around a depth of 30 to 40 m, which stresses the importance of considering DCM dynamics when evaluating phytoplankton productivity at basin scale.</p>

scholarly journals CAN TURKISH AND US CO-OPERATION IN THE BLACK SEA REGION INCREASE EFFICIENCY GAINS?

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-49
Author(s):  
Sedat AYBAR
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Efficiency Gains ◽  
Black Sea Region ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This paper examines the impact of co-operation between Turkey and  the US upon Turkish trade and investments towards the Black Sea  region. The study is particularly important in the conjuncture of the  US withdrawal from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and in the wake of signing a free  trade agreement with the EU. An additional matter of importance  relates to the improved Turkey – Russia economic collaboration especially after the “jet” incident and American  involvement with the Middle East. Significant part of the latter is  economic as the US has also explicit economic interests in the  Eastern Meditteranean. A gravity model has been employed using  ordinary least squares on a panel data with fixed effects to analyse aggregate trade. We have also categorized export groups of  Turkey and the US separately. Our findings for both Turkish and the US exports indicate that per-capita GDP of Black Sea countries are  highly persistent and positively correlated with increased efficiency  gains and trade volumes. Regression results show that the US  exports to the EU member countries are on average less than to  those non-EU member Black Sea countries. Hence, we question  whether a possible co-operation between the US and Turkish  companies can help gaining better access to the Black Sea market for their exports.

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