scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Strong Increase of Thawing of Subsea Permafrost in the 22nd Century Caused by Anthropogenic Climate Change"

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stiig Wilkenskjeld ◽  
Frederieke Miesner ◽  
Paul P. Overduin ◽  
Matteo Puglini ◽  
Victor Brovkin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
Subsea Permafrost

Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gaelle de Coetlogon ◽  
Eric Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

scholarly journals Strong Increase of Thawing of Subsea Permafrost in the 22nd Century Caused by Anthropogenic Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stiig Wilkenskjeld ◽  
Frederieke Miesner ◽  
Paul P. Overduin ◽  
Matteo Puglini ◽  
Victor Brovkin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Earth Model ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Thawing Permafrost

Abstract. Most Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect climate feedbacks arising from carbon release from thawing permafrost, especially from thawing of sub-sea permafrost (SSPF). To assess the fate of SSPF in the next 1000 years, we implemented SSPF into JSBACH, the land component of the Max Planck Institute Earth Model (MPI-ESM). This is the first implementation of SSPF processes in an ESM-component. We investigate three extended scenarios from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the 21st century only small differences are found among the scenarios, but in the upper-end emission scenario SSP5-8.5, especially in the 22nd century SSPF ice melting is more than 15 times faster than in the preindustrial period. In this scenario about 35 % of total SSPF volume and 34 % of SSPF area is lost by year 3000 due to climatic changes. In the more moderate scenarios, the melting maximally exceeds the preindustrial rate by a factor of 4 and the climate change induced SSPF loss (volume and area) by year 3000 does not exceed 14 %. Our results suggest that the rate of melting of SSPF ice is related to the length of the local open water season, and thus that the easily observable sea ice concentration may be used as a proxy for the change of SSPF.

The Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on (drivers of) Multi-Year Droughts in North-Western Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Batelaan ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Niko Wanders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
North Western

<p>The summer of 2018 in North-Western Europe was exceptionally warm and dry, which negatively impacted many sectors. The drought of 2018 was followed by the dry summer of 2019 and the dry spring of 2020. Such multi-year droughts bring unique challenges to the agricultural sector, water authorities and society, and require different adaptation strategies compared to ‘normal’ single-year droughts. The succession of these dry years raises a question: is it pure coincidence that North-Western Europe experienced such a multi-year drought, or are there physical processes that cause multi-year droughts? Furthermore, in the present era it is obvious to ask whether anthropogenic climate change will amplify multi-year droughts in the region.</p><p>We aim to find drivers of multi-year droughts by using <em>ERA5 reanalysis</em> data and  state-of-the-art <em>Large Ensemble simulations</em> from seven climate models. We select multi-year droughts in these datasets based on the <em>Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index</em> and compare drought characteristics in the 1991-2020 reference period with multi-year droughts towards the end of the century. The models show a strong increase in multi-year drought risk from present-day to the end of the century. The frequency of multi-year droughts near doubles and the median duration of selected drought events increases from 16 months to 50 months. Model differences are substantial, mostly due to differences in temperature trends, but all models agree on the increase in multi-year drought risk. Internal variability is large, indicating a large ensemble approach is indeed required to study this problem.</p><p>Next we discuss geophysical drivers of multi-year droughts. Slow-varying ocean processes (through sea surface temperatures) and land processes (through soil moisture) are investigated as potential sources of meteorological conditions that lead to multi-year droughts. We consider the full Earth system, including ocean-land-atmosphere feedbacks, as potential forcing for these events. Summarizing, we will show that anthropogenic warming has potentially large impacts on the frequency, duration and therewith societal risk of multi-year droughts, warranting detailed studies of this topic.</p>

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

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