scholarly journals Strong Increase of Thawing of Subsea Permafrost in the 22nd Century Caused by Anthropogenic Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stiig Wilkenskjeld ◽  
Frederieke Miesner ◽  
Paul P. Overduin ◽  
Matteo Puglini ◽  
Victor Brovkin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Earth Model ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Thawing Permafrost

Abstract. Most Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect climate feedbacks arising from carbon release from thawing permafrost, especially from thawing of sub-sea permafrost (SSPF). To assess the fate of SSPF in the next 1000 years, we implemented SSPF into JSBACH, the land component of the Max Planck Institute Earth Model (MPI-ESM). This is the first implementation of SSPF processes in an ESM-component. We investigate three extended scenarios from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the 21st century only small differences are found among the scenarios, but in the upper-end emission scenario SSP5-8.5, especially in the 22nd century SSPF ice melting is more than 15 times faster than in the preindustrial period. In this scenario about 35 % of total SSPF volume and 34 % of SSPF area is lost by year 3000 due to climatic changes. In the more moderate scenarios, the melting maximally exceeds the preindustrial rate by a factor of 4 and the climate change induced SSPF loss (volume and area) by year 3000 does not exceed 14 %. Our results suggest that the rate of melting of SSPF ice is related to the length of the local open water season, and thus that the easily observable sea ice concentration may be used as a proxy for the change of SSPF.

scholarly journals Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 5473-5482
Author(s):  
Jinlei Chen ◽  
Shichang Kang ◽  
Wentao Du ◽  
Junming Guo ◽  
Min Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Transportation Accessibility ◽  
Decadal Rate

Abstract. The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030.

scholarly journals Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinlei Chen ◽  
Shichang Kang ◽  
Wentao Du ◽  
Junming Guo ◽  
Min Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Northwest Passage ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Transportation Accessibility

Abstract. The retreat of sea ice is very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and have great impacts on navigation. In this investigation, decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by multimodel from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes within the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent is expected to decrease along the SSP5-8.5 scenario with a high possibility under current emissions and climate change. The decadal decreasing rate will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060 when the oldest ice completely disappears and sea ice changes reach an irreversible tipping point. The sea ice thickness will decrease and transit in parts of the Arctic and will decline overall by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline with decreasing decadal rates, while the decrease in volume will be higher in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage in August–October 2045–2055, with a maximum navigable area in September. The opportunistic crossing time for polar class 6 (PC6) ships will advance to October–December in 2021–2030, while the maximum navigable area will be seen in October. In addition, the Central Passage will also open for PC6 ships during September–October in 2021–2030.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals DASSO: a data assimilation system for the Southern Ocean that utilizes both sea-ice concentration and thickness observations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hao Luo ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Nerger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract To improve Antarctic sea-ice simulations and estimations, an ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Southern Ocean (DASSO) was developed based on a regional sea ice–ocean coupled model, which assimilates sea-ice thickness (SIT) together with sea-ice concentration (SIC) derived from satellites. To validate the performance of DASSO, experiments were conducted from 15 April to 14 October 2016. Generally, assimilating SIC and SIT can suppress the overestimation of sea ice in the model-free run. Besides considering uncertainties in the operational atmospheric forcing data, a covariance inflation procedure in data assimilation further improves the simulation of Antarctic sea ice, especially SIT. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating sea-ice observations in reconstructing the state of Antarctic sea ice, but also highlight the necessity of more reasonable error estimation for the background as well as the observation.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

scholarly journals Retrieval of Summer Sea Ice Concentration in the Pacific Arctic Ocean from AMSR2 Observations and Numerical Weather Data Using Random Forest Regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2283
Author(s):  
Hyangsun Han ◽  
Sungjae Lee ◽  
Hyun-Cheol Kim ◽  
Miae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Open Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Effects ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ice Concentration

The Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in summer is a key indicator of global climate change and important information for the development of a more economically valuable Northern Sea Route. Passive microwave (PM) sensors have provided information on the SIC since the 1970s by observing the brightness temperature (TB) of sea ice and open water. However, the SIC in the Arctic estimated by operational algorithms for PM observations is very inaccurate in summer because the TB values of sea ice and open water become similar due to atmospheric effects. In this study, we developed a summer SIC retrieval model for the Pacific Arctic Ocean using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) observations and European Reanalysis Agency-5 (ERA-5) reanalysis fields based on Random Forest (RF) regression. SIC values computed from the ice/water maps generated from the Korean Multi-purpose Satellite-5 synthetic aperture radar images from July to September in 2015–2017 were used as a reference dataset. A total of 24 features including the TB values of AMSR2 channels, the ratios of TB values (the polarization ratio and the spectral gradient ratio (GR)), total columnar water vapor (TCWV), wind speed, air temperature at 2 m and 925 hPa, and the 30-day average of the air temperatures from the ERA-5 were used as the input variables for the RF model. The RF model showed greatly superior performance in retrieving summer SIC values in the Pacific Arctic Ocean to the Bootstrap (BT) and Arctic Radiation and Turbulence Interaction STudy (ARTIST) Sea Ice (ASI) algorithms under various atmospheric conditions. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the RF SIC values was 7.89% compared to the reference SIC values. The BT and ASI SIC values had three times greater values of RMSE (20.19% and 21.39%, respectively) than the RF SIC values. The air temperatures at 2 m and 925 hPa and their 30-day averages, which indicate the ice surface melting conditions, as well as the GR using the vertically polarized channels at 23 GHz and 18 GHz (GR(23V18V)), TCWV, and GR(36V18V), which accounts for atmospheric water content, were identified as the variables that contributed greatly to the RF model. These important variables allowed the RF model to retrieve unbiased and accurate SIC values by taking into account the changes in TB values of sea ice and open water caused by atmospheric effects.

scholarly journals Hydrology influences breeding time in the white-throated dipper

BMC Ecology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna L. K. Nilsson ◽  
Thomas Skaugen ◽  
Trond Reitan ◽  
Jan Henning L’Abée-Lund ◽  
Marlène Gamelon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Window ◽  
River System ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Breeding Time

Abstract Background Earlier breeding is one of the strongest responses to global change in birds and is a key factor determining reproductive success. In most studies of climate effects, the focus has been on large-scale environmental indices or temperature averaged over large geographical areas, neglecting that animals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. In riverine ecosystems, climate change is altering the flow regime, in addition to changes resulting from the increasing demand for renewable and clean hydropower. Together with increasing temperatures, this can lead to shifts in the time window available for successful breeding of birds associated with the riverine habitat. Here, we investigated specifically how the environmental conditions at the territory level influence timing of breeding in a passerine bird with an aquatic lifestyle, the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological parameters, to a long-term dataset of breeding phenology (1978–2015) in a natural river system. Results Dippers bred earlier when winter river discharge and groundwater levels in the weeks prior to breeding were high, and when there was little snow in the catchment area. Breeding was also earlier at lower altitudes, although the effect dramatically declined over the period. This suggests that territories at higher altitudes had more open water in winter later in the study period, which permitted early breeding also here. Unexpectedly, the largest effect inducing earlier breeding time was territory river discharge during the winter months and not immediately prior to breeding. The territory river discharge also increased during the study period. Conclusions The observed earlier breeding can thus be interpreted as a response to climate change. Measuring environmental variation at the scale of the territory thus provides detailed information about the interactions between organisms and the abiotic environment.

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

Impacts of European spruce bark beetle infestations on Norway spruce BVOC emissions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Jaakkola ◽  
Anna Maria Jönsson ◽  
Per-Ola Olsson ◽  
Maj-Lena Linderson ◽  
Thomas Holst
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Atmospheric Environment ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Healthy Tree ◽  
Spruce Bark Beetle ◽  
Spruce Bark

&lt;p&gt;Tree killing by spruce bark beetles (&lt;em&gt;Ips typographus&lt;/em&gt;) is one of the main disturbances to Norway spruce (&lt;em&gt;Picea abies&lt;/em&gt;) forests in Europe and the risk of outbreaks is amplified by climate change with effects such as increased risk of storm felling, tree drought stress and an additional generation of spruce bark beetles per year&lt;sup&gt;[1]&lt;/sup&gt;. The warm and dry&amp;#160;summer of&amp;#160;2018 triggered large outbreaks in Sweden, the increased outbreaks are still ongoing and affected&amp;#160;about 8 million m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;&amp;#160;forest&amp;#160;in 2020&lt;sup&gt;[2]&lt;/sup&gt;. This is the so&amp;#160;far highest record of trees killed by the spruce bark beetle in a single year in Sweden&lt;sup&gt;[2]&lt;/sup&gt;. In&amp;#160;1990-2010,&amp;#160;the spruce bark beetle killed on&amp;#160;average&amp;#160;150 000 m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;&amp;#160;forest per year in southern Sweden&lt;sup&gt;[3]&lt;/sup&gt;. Bark beetles normally seek and attack Norway spruces with lowered defense, i.e. trees that are wind-felled or experience prolonged drought stress&lt;sup&gt;[4]&lt;/sup&gt;. However, as the number of bark beetle outbreaks increase, the risk of attacks on healthy trees also increase&lt;sup&gt;[5]&lt;/sup&gt;. This causes a higher threat to forest industry, and lowers the possibilities to mitigate climate change in terms of potential decreases in carbon uptake if the forests die&lt;sup&gt;[4,5]&lt;/sup&gt;. Norway spruce trees normally defend themselves by drenching the beetles in resin&lt;sup&gt;[6]&lt;/sup&gt;. The resin in turn contains different biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which can vary if the spruce is attacked by bark beetles or not&lt;sup&gt; [4,6]&lt;/sup&gt;. The most abundant group of terpenoids (isoprene, monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes), is most commonly emitted from conifers, such as Norway spruce&lt;sup&gt;[7,8]&lt;/sup&gt;. The aim of this study was to enable a better understanding of the direct defense mechanisms of spruce trees by&amp;#160;quantifying BVOC emissions and its composition&amp;#160;from individual&amp;#160;trees under attack&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To analyze the bark beetles&amp;#8217; impact on Norway spruce trees a method was developed using tree trunk chambers and adsorbent tubes. This enables direct measurements of the production of BVOCs from individual trees. Three different sites in Sweden, with different environmental conditions were used for the study and samples were collected throughout the growing season of 2019. After sampling, the tubes were analyzed in a lab using automated thermal desorption coupled to a gas chromatograph and a mass spectrometer to identify BVOC species and their quantity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The preliminary results show a strong increase in BVOC emissions from a healthy tree that became infested during the data collection. The finalized results expect to enable better understanding of how spruce trees are affected by insect stress from bark beetles, and if bark beetle infestation will potentially result in increased carbon emission in the form of BVOCs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[1] J&amp;#246;nsson et al. (2012). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 166: 188&amp;#8211;200&lt;br&gt;[2] Skogsstyrelsen, (2020). https://via.tt.se/pressmeddelande/miljontals-granar-dodades-av-granbarkborren-2020?publisherId=415163&amp;releaseId=3288473&lt;br&gt;[3] Marini et al. (2017). Ecography, 40(12), 1426&amp;#8211;1435.&lt;br&gt;[4] Raffa (1991). Photochemical induction by herbivores. pp. 245-276&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;[5] Seidl, et al. (2014). Nature Climate Change,&amp;#160;4(9), 806-810. &lt;br&gt;[6] Ghimire, et al. (2016).&amp;#160;Atmospheric Environment,&amp;#160;126, 145-152.&lt;br&gt;[7] Niinemets, U. and Monson, R. (2013). ISBN 978-94-007-6606-8&lt;br&gt;[8] Kesselmeier, J. and Staudt, M. (1999). Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 33(1), pp.23-88&lt;/p&gt;

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