Large sensitivity of a Greenland ice sheet model to atmospheric forcing fields

Abstract. The prediction of future climate and ice sheet evolution requires coupling of ice sheet and climate models. Before proceeding to a coupled setup, we propose to analyze the impact of model simulated climate on an ice sheet. Here, we undertake this exercise for a set of regional and global climate models. Modelled near surface air temperature and precipitation are provided as upper boundary condition to the GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice model) hybrid ice sheet model (ISM) in its Greenland configuration. After 20 kyr of simulation, the resulting ice sheets highlight the differences between the climate models. While modelled ice sheet sizes are generally comparable to the observed ones, there are considerable deviations among the ice sheets on regional scales. These can be explained by difficulties in modelling local temperature and precipitation near the coast. This is especially true in the case of global models. But the deviations of each climate model are also due to the differences in the atmospheric general circulation. In the context of coupling ice sheet and climate models, we conclude that appropriate downscaling methods will be needed and systematic corrections of the climatic variables at the interface may be required in some cases to obtain realistic results for the Greenland ice sheet (GIS).

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Sensitivity of a Greenland ice sheet model to atmospheric forcing fields

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-6-999-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (5) ◽

pp. 999-1018 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

A. Quiquet ◽

H. J. Punge ◽

C. Ritz ◽

X. Fettweis ◽

H. Gallée ◽

...

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Near Surface ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Predicting the climate for the future and how it will impact ice sheet evolution requires coupling ice sheet models with climate models. However, before we attempt to develop a realistic coupled setup, we propose, in this study, to first analyse the impact of a model simulated climate on an ice sheet. We undertake this exercise for a set of regional and global climate models. Modelled near surface air temperature and precipitation are provided as upper boundary conditions to the GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice model) hybrid ice sheet model (ISM) in its Greenland configuration. After 20 kyrs of simulation, the resulting ice sheets highlight the differences between the climate models. While modelled ice sheet sizes are generally comparable to the observed one, there are considerable deviations among the ice sheets on regional scales. These deviations can be explained by biases in temperature and precipitation near the coast. This is especially true in the case of global models. But the deviations between the climate models are also due to the differences in the atmospheric general circulation. To account for these differences in the context of coupling ice sheet models with climate models, we conclude that appropriate downscaling methods will be needed. In some cases, systematic corrections of the climatic variables at the interface may be required to obtain realistic results for the Greenland ice sheet (GIS).

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FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (9) ◽

pp. 5769-5787

Author(s):

Robin S. Smith ◽

Steve George ◽

Jonathan M. Gregory

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Snow Model ◽

Major Factors

Abstract. The physical interactions between ice sheets and their surroundings are major factors in determining the state of the climate system, yet many current Earth system models omit them entirely or approximate them in a heavily parameterised manner. In this work we have improved the snow and ice sheet surface physics in the FAMOUS climate model, with the aim of improving the representation of polar climate and implementing a bidirectional coupling to the Glimmer dynamic ice sheet model using the water and energy fluxes calculated by FAMOUS. FAMOUS and Glimmer are both low-resolution, computationally affordable models used for multi-millennial simulations. Glaciated surfaces in the new FAMOUS-ice are modelled using a multi-layer snow scheme capable of simulating compaction of firn and the percolation and refreezing of surface melt. The low horizontal resolution of FAMOUS compared to Glimmer is mitigated by implementing this snow model on sub-grid-scale tiles that represent different elevations on the ice sheet within each FAMOUS grid box. We show that with this approach FAMOUS-ice can simulate relevant physical processes on the surface of the modern Greenland ice sheet well compared to higher-resolution climate models and that the ice sheet state in the coupled FAMOUS-ice–Glimmer system does not drift unacceptably. FAMOUS-ice coupled to Glimmer is thus a useful tool for modelling the physics and co-evolution of climate and grounded ice sheets on centennial and millennial timescales, with applications to scientific questions relevant to both paleoclimate and future sea level rise.

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Using results from the PlioMIP ensemble to investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-11-403-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 403-424 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

A. M. Dolan ◽

S. J. Hunter ◽

D. J. Hill ◽

A. M. Haywood ◽

S. J. Koenig ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Warm Period ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Model Dependency

Abstract. During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than pre-industrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modelling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near-modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

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A regional atmospheric warming threshold for irreversible Greenland ice sheet mass loss

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19032 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Michiel van den Broeke ◽

Brice Noël ◽

Leo van Kampenhout ◽

Willem-Jan van de Berg

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Future

The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS, units Gt per year) equals the surface mass balance (SMB) minus solid ice discharge across the grounding line. As the latter is definite positive, an important threshold for irreversible GrIS mass loss occurs when long-term average SMB becomes negative. For this to happen, runoff (mainly meltwater, some rain) must exceed mass accumulation (mainly snowfall minus sublimation). Even for a single year, this threshold has not been passed since at least 1958, the first year with reliable estimates of SMB components, although recent years with warm summers (e.g. 2012 and 2019) came close. Simply extrapolating the recent (1991-present) negative SMB trend into the future suggests that the SMB = 0 threshold could be reached before ~2040, but such predictions are extremely uncertain given the very large interannual SMB variability, the relative brevity of the time series and the uncertainty in future warming. In this study we use a cascade of models, extensively evaluated with in-situ and remotely sensed (GRACE) SMB observations, to better constrain the future regional warming threshold for the 5-year average GrIS SMB to become negative. To this end, a 1950-2100 climate change run with the global model CESM2 (app. 100 km resolution) was dynamically downscaled using the regional climate model RACMO2 (app. 11 km), which in turn was statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution. The result is a threshold regional Greenland warming of close to 4 degrees. We then use a range of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models to translate the regional value into a global warming threshold for various warming scenarios, including its timing this century. We find substantial differences, ranging from stabilization before the threshold is reached in the RCP/SSP2.6 scenarios with a limited but still significant sea-level rise contribution (< 5 cm by 2100) to an imminent crossing of the warming threshold for the RCP/SSP8.5 scenarios with substantial and ever-growing contributions to sea level rise (> 10 cm by 2100). These results stress the need for strong mitigation to avoid irreversible GrIS mass loss. We finish by discussing the caveats and uncertainties of our approach.

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FAMOUS version xotzb (FAMOUS-ice): a GCM capable of energy- and water- conserving coupling to an ice sheet model

10.5194/gmd-2020-207 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Robin S. Smith ◽

Steve George ◽

Jonathan M. Gregory

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Polar Climate ◽

Snow Model ◽

Major Factors ◽

Scientific Questions

Abstract. The physical interactions between ice sheets and their surroundings are major factors in determining the state of the climate system, yet many current Earth System models omit them entirely or approximate them in a heavily parameterised manner. In this work we have improved the snow and ice sheet surface physics in the FAMOUS climate model, with the aim of improving the representation of polar climate and implementing a bidirectional coupling to the Glimmer dynamic ice sheet model using the water and energy fluxes calculated by FAMOUS. FAMOUS and Glimmer are both low resolution, computationally affordable models used for multi-millennial simulations. Glaciated surfaces in the new FAMOUS-ice are modelled using a multi-layer snow scheme capable of simulating compaction of firn and the percolation and refreezing of surface melt. The low horizontal resolution of FAMOUS compared to Glimmer is mitigated by implementing this snow model on sub-gridscale tiles that represent different elevations on the ice sheet within each FAMOUS grid-box. We show that with this approach FAMOUS-ice can simulate relevant physical processes on the surface of the modern Greenland ice sheet well compared to higher resolution climate models, and that the ice sheet state in the coupled FAMOUS-ice-Glimmer system does not drift unacceptably. FAMOUS-ice coupled to Glimmer is thus a useful tool for modelling the physics and co-evolution of climate and grounded ice sheets on centennial and millennial timescales, with applications to scientific questions relevant to both paleoclimate and future sea level rise.

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Is the impact of climate oscillations changing over the Greenland Ice Sheet?

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14893 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tiago Silva ◽

Jakob Abermann ◽

Sonika Shahi ◽

Wolfgang Schöner ◽

Brice Nöel

Keyword(s):

North Atlantic ◽

General Circulation ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Energy Budget ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Near Surface ◽

Climate Oscillations ◽

Regional Climate Model Output ◽

The Impact

Greenland Block Index (GBI) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are climate indices widely used for climatological studies especially over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Particularly in summer, they are highly and negatively correlated; both have a strong relationship to near surface processes around the GrIS; their magnitude creates non-linear feedbacks and influences the low troposphere, shaping spatial accumulation and ablation patterns.NAO is a measure of the surface pressure difference over the North Atlantic, providing insight of intensity and location of the jet stream. GBI denotes the general circulation over Greenland at the 500-hPa level and depending on its signal promotes heat and moist advection towards inland.Based on the 1959-2019 period, the extreme summer melt of 2019 recorded the highest mean summer GBI while the extreme summer melt of 2012 recorded the lowest mean summer NAO. Their impact, however, goes beyond the melting season since the inter-seasonal phase change of these two indices may enhance/ postpone early melt/late refreezing and vice-versa.Supported by 62 years of high-resolution regional climate model output (RACMO2.3p2), this work uses a statistical approach to analyze inter-seasonal variability of climate oscillations and their impact on the surface energy budget components over the GrIS. Also, teleconnection changes in a changing climate are hypothesized.

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AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections

10.5194/gmd-2016-79 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Pepijn Bakker ◽

Andreas Schmittner

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Uncertainty Assessment ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract. State-of-the-science global climate models show that global warming is likely to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While such models are arguably the best tools to perform AMOC projections, they do not allow a comprehensive uncertainty assessment because of limited computational resources. Here we present an AMOC-emulator, a box model with a number of free parameters that can be tuned to mimic the sensitivity of the AMOC to climate change of a specific global climate model. The AMOC-emulator (M-AMOC1.0) is applied to simulations of global warming and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, performed with an intermediate complexity model. Predictive power of the AMOC-emulator is shown by comparison with a number of additional warming and Greenland Ice Sheet melt scenario that have not been used in the tuning of the AMOC-emulator, highlighting the potential of the AMOC-emulator to assess the uncertainty in AMOC projections.

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Brief communication: Interest of a regional climate model against ERA5 to simulate the near-surface climate of the Greenland ice sheet

10.5194/tc-2019-96 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Alison Delhasse ◽

Christoph Kittel ◽

Charles Amory ◽

Stefan Hofer ◽

Xavier Fettweis

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Near Surface ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Surface Climate ◽

Medium Range

Abstract. The ERA5 reanalysis, recently made available by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is a new reanalysis product at a higher resolution which will replace ERA-Interim, considered to be the best reanalysis over Greenland until now. However, so far very little is known about the performance of ERA5 when compared to ERA-Interim over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). This study shows (1) that ERA5 improves not significantly the ERA-Interim comparison with near-surface climate observations over GrIS, (2) polar regional climate models (e.g. MAR) are still a useful tool to study the GrIS climate compared to ERA5, in particular in summer, and (3) that MAR results are not sensitive to the forcing used at its lateral boundaries (ERA5 or ERA-Interim).

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Using results from the PlioMIP ensemble to investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet during the warm Pliocene

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-10-3483-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 3483-3535 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

A. M. Dolan ◽

S. J. Hunter ◽

D. J. Hill ◽

A. M. Haywood ◽

S. J. Koenig ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Warm Period ◽

Modern World ◽

Model Dependency

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than pre-industrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the warmest intervals of the mid-Pliocene is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modelling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show Pliocene ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of surface albedo differences between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints in developing our understanding of the Pliocene Greenland ice sheet.

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Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 2195-2213 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Heiko Goelzer ◽

Philippe Huybrechts ◽

Marie-France Loutre ◽

Thierry Fichefet

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Last Interglacial ◽

A Minor ◽

The Antarctic ◽

The Impact ◽

And Sea Level

Abstract. As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼  130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate–ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet–climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

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