Prices, Money Supply and Output Nexus in Pakistan – A Macro Econometric Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-118
Author(s):  
Asma Awan ◽  
Hafiz Khalil Ahmad ◽  
Altaf Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Yousuf Khan Marri
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Significant Positive Association ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time

This study is an endeavor to examine joint determination of prices, money supply and output in Pakistan during 1975-2019 by using macro-economic model and annual time series data. Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) method is utilized to estimate simultaneous model of prices, money supply and output nexus. Our results strongly support significant positive association between prices and money supply thus supports monetarist view that growth in money supply causes inflation and rising behavior of prices is detrimental to real output. The accelerated inflation has obstructed real output and reduced output levels has further caused jump in price levels during the investigated period. The empirical results also supports significant bi-directional relationship between prices and money supply. Prudent monetary policy is need of hour to stabilize prices in order to minimize its adverse impacts on real output.

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals Prospects of the Nigeria Brewery Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Paul A. Ugboya ◽  
Martins A. Odiamenhi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time

This study analyses the economics and determinants of a brewery industry (Guinness Nigeria Limited) with a view of establishing the future of breweries in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to estimate the factors influencing products production and determine the viability of products manufactured by the company. Multiple regression and the ordinary least square techniques were used to analyse the long-term (2006 - 2015) annual time series data observed for the study. The results showed that the major determinant of Stout, Harp and Malt production is demanded. As a significant input, it positively influences product production. The observed values of regression coefficients (R2) are 0.99349 (for Stout), 0.90981 (for Harp), and 0.99498 (for Malt), which indicates that they are reliable for determining the future of Guinness Nigeria Ltd. The results also showed that logarithm of demand for Stout production (LstoutD) of 13.5277, LharpD of 21.8439 and LmaltD of 12.2653 were projected respectively up to the year 2025, an indication that brewery production in the state is viable and that future is bright.

scholarly journals Determinants of International Migration: The Nigerian Experience

2014 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Antwi Darkwah ◽  
Nahanga Verter
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Development ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Foreign Earnings ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Ordinary Least Square Regression ◽  
Annual Time

This paper examines some determinants of international migration in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning the period 1991–2011. Using ordinary least square regression method, the results indicate that the level of unemployment, migrants’ remittances and population growth are the key determinants of emigration from Nigeria to other countries, statistically significant at 0.01 level.In a country where unemployment rate is very high, this movement is likely to help in reducing pressures on the labour market. Migrants’ remittances might also help in alleviating poverty within households. Migrants’ remittance to Nigeria has surpassed both Foreign Direct Investment and Net Official Development Assistance inflows, making it one amongst the major sources of foreign earnings to Nigeria. Nigerians will continue to migrate to other parts of the world so long as the reasons or causes for their movement are not fully addressed i.e. if political and socioeconomic issues in the country do not improve. The Nigerian government should as a matter of urgency, create better jobs and conducive environment in order to stop people from migrating while at the same time encouraging its skilled labour abroad to return home to help in national development.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 539-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael Alvarez ◽  
Geoffrey Garrett ◽  
Peter Lange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Organized Labor ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Labor Movements ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Industrial Democracies ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Annual Time

Governments of the Left and Right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue. Their propensity to do so, however, is constrained by their desire for reelection. We argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy, particularly the labor movement. We hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance. In countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements, leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment. Conversely, in countries with weak labor movements, rightist governments can pursue their partisan-preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes. Performance will be poorer in other cases. These hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984.

scholarly journals OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 156-165
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Sanitation And Hygiene ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

scholarly journals Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Prevalence Of Anemia ◽  
Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

scholarly journals Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Smartson P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control ◽  
Blue Print ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned.

Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

Money Supply and Private Sector Funding in Nigeria: A Multi-Variant Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
Zaagha Alexander Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Medium Scale ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Causality Tests

This study examined the effect of money supply on private sector funding in Nigeria. The purpose of the study was to examine the extent to which monetary policy affect private sector funding in Nigeria. Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1985-2018. Credit to private sector, credit to core private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector was used as dependent variables while narrow money supply, broad money supply, large money supply, private sector demand deposit was used as independent variables. Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration test, normalized co-integrating equations, parsimonious vector error correction model and pair-wise causality tests were used to conduct the investigations and analysis. The empirical findings revealed that money supply explains 82.1 percent variation on credit to core private sector, 85.2 percent and 23.4 percent of the variation in credit to private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector. The study conclude that money supply has significant relationship with credit to private sector, credit to core private sector and credit to small and medium scale enterprises sector. From the findings, the study recommends that Central Bank of Nigeria should induce the variations of the amount of money changes through the nominal interest rates. That the monetary authorities should ensure adequate quantity of money supply that positively affect private sector funding in Nigeria.

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