OIL PRICES, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: Evidence from Middle-Eastern and African Oil-Importing Countries during the Period (2000-2013).

2015 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 16-23
Author(s):  
Malik Qasim Khasawneh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the oil price volatility on the economic growth in addition to testing the relationship between oil prices and international reserves in a number of oil importing countries during the period (2000-2013). The study finds that an increase in oil prices has a negative impact on economic growth on these economies during the study period. The study also finds that an increase in oil prices increases the consumer price index and the international reserves. The study uses the descriptive and analytical methods, and so relying on Panel VAR Model and Panel Data model.

scholarly journals EFECTOS DE LA INCERTIDUMBRE DE LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO EN EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (309) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domingo Rodríguez Benavides ◽  
Francisco López Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>En este trabajo investigamos si la incertidumbre del precio internacional del petróleo incidió en la actividad económica de México durante 1983:2-2017:4. Empleamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) estructural bivariado con un proceso generalizado autorregresivo de heterocedasticidad condicional (GARCH) en media que captura el impacto de la volatilidad del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la formación bruta de capital fijo. Nuestros resultados muestran que la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero tiene una influencia negativa en la actividad económica. Además, revelan la presencia de efectos asimétricos: la tasa de crecimiento de la producción aumenta (disminuye) después de un choque negativo (positivo) en el precio del petróleo. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de políticas públicas que mitiguen el efecto de la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero y contribuyan a la estabilidad económica.</p><p align="center"> </p><p align="center">EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES UNCERTAINTY ON MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico’s economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico’s economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.</p>

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>Fluctuations in oil price and its impact on economic development is an important issue facing a growing number of world economies. A simple changes in oil prices lead to negative or positive effects on all the economic sectors. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of oil price volatility on economic sectors in the Libyan economy context on the basis of annual data spanning from 1968-2012. The Johansen based Co-integration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of economic sectors to volatility in oil prices in the long-run. And the short-run relationship is tested by Vector Error Correction Model. Through examining the results, that there is a long-term relationship of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and transport sectors. Finally, this study concludes that increases in oil price did not significantly affect the manufacturing sector in aggregate terms. Moreover, the negative impact on the sector of manufacturing and agriculture. Thus, this study has a significant impact in the Libyan economy in policy development on oil prices. The Libyan government needs to control the price to make sure that price volatility will not harm the manufacturing, agriculture, construction and transport sectors.</p>

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOR IN A RESOURCE-DOMINANT ECONOMY: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
MOLDIR MUKAN ◽  
YESSENGALI OSKENBAYEV ◽  
NIKI NADERI ◽  
YERGALI DOSMAGAMBET
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

During the past 10 years, the oil market has been very unpredictable and volatile, which created uneasy conditions for market participants. The remedy of increasing oil prices is considered as a positive factor for the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan as an oil-exporting country. Using structural decomposition of vector autoregression (VAR), this study aims to examine how the whole financial system in Kazakhstan is depending on oil prices. The results suggest that the strongest factor affecting the stock index is aggregate demand, and the impact of oil production shocks on the equity market is, on average, insignificant. Such shocks can be discounted while a fall in oil prices affects financial conditions as a whole, damaging the solvency of Kazakhstan, an oil-exporting country. With the positive shock of aggregate demand, the stock market index tends to rise. There is also an effect of oil price volatility on changes in currency value, which also influences the financial situation of the country. Moreover, oil-exporting countries such as Kazakhstan can secure and support their economies with the help of “stable aggregate demand”. The focus on Kazakhstan as one of the oil-producing countries is interesting for at least two reasons. Importantly, oil-exporting countries supply oil to really strong countries concentrating on manufacturing and other industries. Besides, this study provides useful insights for countries with similar economic conditions, including similar stock market development.

scholarly journals Governance of public spending avenues by oil prices, oil revenues, and GDP in Saudi Arabia: proportionate sensitivity and trend analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 152-164
Author(s):  
Anis Ali
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Impact

Saudi Arabia is a petroleum resource-rich country, and half of the GDP of Saudi Arabia is based on the Oil Sector Revenue (OSR). The OSR is governed by the Oil Prices (OP), while GDP is also affected by the OSR in petroleum exporting companies. The volatility of OP governs the OSR and GDP positively and perfectly as the oil sector contributes approximately half of the GDP of Saudi Arabia. The study analyzes the governance of the Public Spending Avenues (PSA) by the OP, OSR, and GDP in the long and short run and based on the secondary data taken from the website of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA). Coefficient of Variations (CV), Chain-based Index (CBI) numbers, Fixed-based Index (FBI) numbers, and Analysis of Variances (ANOVA) of OP and other dependent variables calculated to get the normality, sensitivity, trend, and significance difference among the sensitivity and trend of variables, while Pearson’s correlations establish the cause-effect relationship among the variables. The study reveals that oil price volatility does not affect the OSR, GDP, and ultimately public spending in the long run. However, there is governance of volatility of OP that can be seen on OSR, GDP, and ultimately on PSA in the short run. Saudi Arabian government enhances its spending on PSA and especially on education while lowering the OP. There is a need to diversify the income resources to minimize the reliability of oil prices and budget deficit and consider the sensitivity of oil prices on the economy by the policymakers to formulate the policies to minimize the impact of volatility of OP on the economy. AcknowledgmentThe author would like to thank the Deanship of Scientific Research, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia. &amp;nbsp;

Russian Stock Index volatility: Oil and sanctions

2020 ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Artem D. Aganin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Russian Stock Market ◽  
The Garch Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Parametric Estimate

Since 2014, the Russian stock market has been under pressure due to both sanctions and a sharp drop in oil prices, which led to its increased volatility. This paper analyzes the impact of the price volatility of Brent oil and sanctions on the volatility of the Russian stock index RTS. Under volatility the paper understands both its parametric estimate obtained from the GARCH model estimation as well as non-parametric estimate — realized volatility. To estimate the effect of oil price volatility and sanctions, several cointegrated regressions were analyzed. The robustness of the results in relation to the choice of volatility assessment is demonstrated. The results show that RTS index volatility still depends on oil prices volatility in 2007—2018. This dependence is most pronounced in the periods of crisis. The paper also demonstrates the adjustment of the Russian stock market to the previous sanctions, which calls into question their long-term efficiency.

scholarly journals Oil price volatility and its impact on economic growth and food security in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 482-491
Author(s):  
Mousumi Saha ◽  
Seikh Mohammad Sayem ◽  
A. K. M. Abdullah Al-Amin ◽  
Shankar Majumder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically examines oil price volatility and the impact of oil price changes on the growth of the economy and food security in Bangladesh. The study uses yearly data of macroeconomic variables from 1991 to 2015 and global food security index (GFSI) for the period 2012 to 2015. Furthermore, data of GFSI for previous four years have been simulated using exponential model. The GARCH (2, 1) model with minimum AIC postulates that volatility was high in the previous period and it has been continued to be lower in the current period (i.e. 2015). The co-integration test and error correction model exhibit that both in short-run and long-run case the increasing oil price negatively affected the growth of the economy. The simultaneous equations regression model using three-stage least squares estimator discloses that an increase in oil price declines the economic growth and food security simultaneously and significantly. Moreover, this study suggests that oil price volatility is not a good sign for the economy of Bangladesh, since, the country is an importer of crude oil, government policy should be quick responsive in relation to international oil market to create consistent oil market and sustainable economic development in Bangladesh. J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 16(3): 482–491, December 2018

scholarly journals Social and economic drivers of national economic development: the case of OPEC countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 155-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mlaabdal Saady Mahmood Abaas ◽  
Olena Chygryn ◽  
Oleksandr Kubatko ◽  
Tetyana Pimonenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Per Capita

This paper examines the economic relationships between oil price volatility and socially-economic development of 14 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) using the annual panel data for the period 1990–2014 obtained from the World Bank (WB) statistical data sets. Hausman specification test has been performed to choose the method of panel data analysis, and the results were in favor of fixed effects estimation. The main findings indicate the direct relationship between economic growth and oil price volatility. The research supports the hypothesis that an increase in crude oil prices is positively related to GDP, and a 10% increase in oil prices correlates with 0.6-4% GDP improvements. Structural changes in employment in favor of service sector are negatively correlated with GDP per capita. Changes in GDP structure in favor of oil rents on 10% lead to the shrinking of GDP on 1%. Life expectancy at birth, as an indirect indicator of health, positively influences the economic growth indicators and an improvement in life expectancy on one percentage leads on average to 1% growth in GDP and 0.5-1.33% growth in GDP per capita. Energy efficiency improvements are positive drivers of GDP values at OPEC, and our findings suggest that a 10% increase at GDP per unit of energy use leads to 3% increase of GDP itself. The study recommends investing in energy efficiency, human capital, and capital formation to guarantee long-run economic development and prosperity of OPEC counties.

scholarly journals Causality between Oil Prices and Tourist Arrivals

Stats ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Huang ◽  
Emmanuel Silva ◽  
Hossein Hassani
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Time Domain ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the causal relationship between oil price and tourist arrivals to further explain the impact of oil price volatility on tourism-related economic activities. The analysis itself considers the time domain, frequency domain, and information theory domain perspectives. Data relating to the US and nine European countries are exploited in this paper with causality tests which include the time domain, frequency domain, and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). The CCM approach is nonparametric and therefore not restricted by assumptions. We contribute to existing research through the successful and introductory application of an advanced method and via the uncovering of significant causal links from oil prices to tourist arrivals.

The impact of oil price volatility on economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 847-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. O. Al-sasi ◽  
O. Taylan ◽  
A. Demirbas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact
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