DEVELOPMENT OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF REGISTRATION OF INDIRECT SIGNS OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF TECHNOGENIC CHARACTER AT CRITICAL INFRINGED OBJECTS

2021 ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
Gennadiy Kamyshentsev
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Queuing System ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Repair Work ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Working Hypothesis ◽  
The Mathematical Model

In the work on the basis of the analysis of vulnerability of objects of critical infrastructure, the mathematical model of registration of indirect signs of emergence of an emergency situation of technogenic character on objects of critical infrastructure is developed. The main parameters of the functional environment of mathematical model formation are analyzed and the basic equations of interrelation between variable and invariant parameters are determined. A description of the mathematical model is given. Mathematical model of registration of indirect signs of man-made emergency at critical infrastructure facilities, represents a system of five dependencies, represents a system of five dependencies. The first dependence allows you to calculate the current value of the probabilities of emergencies on the overpass depending on the number of possible typical emergencies, system load and the current number of requests received for maintenance. The second dependence evaluates the situational background of motor vehicles as a working hypothesis that the emergency situation will not lead to long-term deviations from the normal operation of the overpass. The third dependence evaluates the situational background of motor vehicles as a working hypothesis that the consequences of the emergency situation will lead to the decommissioning of the overpass and the implementation of restoration and repair work. Fourth, and allow you to estimate the load of the queuing system on the total time of employment of the system and the number of vehicles that are at this key junction of the highway. The fifth dependency allows you to estimate the load of the queuing system on the basis of actual, statistical data, including current ones. Key words: emergency situation, acoustic control, critical infrastructure objects

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of emergency situations at objects of production and gas transportation

2018 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 04012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Orlov ◽  
Elena Detina ◽  
Oleg Kovalchuk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Functional Safety ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Management Of Resources ◽  
Rational Management ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Mathematical modeling attracts the attention of researchers from different fields, as one of the rigorous methods of justifying the conducted researchs. Mathematical modeling makes it possible forecast to real life situations. Based on the mathematical model, the work provides the innovative recommendations for making managerial decisions on increasing the reliability and functional safety of the pipeline at all stages of its life cycle. The results obtained allow: 1) to consider issues related to the rational management of resources for the maintenance of the infrastructure of gas chemical complexes in conditions of limited means; 2) is have adapt RAMS methodology to the complex of Russian standards and the base of normative and methodological documentation on managing the life cycle processes of systems of to product and transportat of gas.

Method of evaluating transport tasks in the army with the use of mathematical modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Eliza Łagowska
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Logistics System ◽  
Material Resources ◽  
Technical Material ◽  
Development Tendency ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The article analyzes military transport operating within the Armed Forces logistics system. The proprietary method of its evaluation was presented. The technical subsystem has been characterized with the specification of the requirements it is faced with. General criteria for the assessment of the technical subsystem were identified, distinguishing the equipment, personnel, technical material resources, training and experience of soldiers, as well as their combat readiness and flexibility. The essential part of the discussion is devoted to empirical evaluation. It was made through the analysis of completed transport tasks. The research conducted with respect to the mileages of motor vehicles allows to ascertain whether the system is sufficient to meet the current needs. The mathematical model proposed allows to estimate the development tendency, based on which it is possible to formulate improvement proposals.

scholarly journals Mathematical model for the evaluation of risk of emergency situations at a dangerous technical object based on artificial neural networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00069
Author(s):  
Nikolay Peganov ◽  
Aleksandr Tumanov ◽  
Vladimir Tumanov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Technical Object ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Mathematical Model

In the work performed adaptation of artificial neural networks in modern security systems potentially dangerous technical objects — high-rise buildings as tools for assessing and forecasting in management decision. The study obtained the main scientific results: the mathematical model of risk assessment of man-made emergencies based on artificial neural networks; the mathematical model, adapted to the cumulative model of development technogene emergency-fire; provided risk assessment technique manmade emergencies based on artificial neural networks; represented private man-made fire risk assessment methodology using artificial neural networks.

scholarly journals MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF UNDERWATER DEMINING BY DIPPER DIVERS OF THE SESU

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (166) ◽  
pp. 175-183
Author(s):  
I. Soloviev
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Response Process ◽  
Special Means ◽  
Operational Activities ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Technical Recommendations

It is shown that the problem of improving the effectiveness of prevention of emergencies related to the underwater location of explosive objects is relevant. An important and unresolved part of the problem is the lack of a mathematical model of the emergency response process associated with the underwater location of an explosive device in general. Based on this, the object of the study was the elimination of an emergency situation related to the underwater location of explosive objects, and the subject of the study – the process of operational activities of personnel of the underwater demining department of a group of special diving rescue team. The aim of the work is to develop a mathematical model of the emergency response process related to the underwater location of an explosive object as a process of functioning of the system "emergency – special means of underwater demining – diver-sapper", which should be the basis for substantiation of operational and technical recommendations. increasing the efficiency of underwater demining by diver sappers without reducing their level of safety. It is shown that the mathematical model of underwater demining by a diver-sapper is a system of three analytical dependences. The first is a functional that describes the process of underwater demining in the form of a three-factor polynomial model. The second allows us to present this functionality as a set of one-factor models. The third provides the definition of weights in solving a multifactor problem. It is noted that such a model allows to proceed to the substantiation of operational and technical recommendations to the management of the group of special diving works. The advantage of the new scientific result is the ability to obtain both quantitative estimates of the impact of the direct components of the system "diver-sapper – special means of underwater demining – underwater location of an explosive object" and their relationship. The disadvantage is the large number of experimental results that must be obtained to implement the selected plan.

scholarly journals Refinement of the Matching Coefficients of the Mathematical Model of Spacecraft Motion Using the Concept of “Generalized Observability”

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 3-13
Author(s):  
А. E. Tyulin ◽  
◽  
A. V. Kruglov ◽  
V. V. Betanov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Structural Property ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Spacecraft Motion ◽  
Object System ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Ballistic Coefficient ◽  
Navigation Tool ◽  
System Task ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The aim of this paper is to improve the scientific and methodological support of identification tasks when specifying the parameters of spacecraft motion. The article examines a systematic approach to ensuring the specification of the ballistic coefficient in the mathematical model of the spacecraft motion. For emergency situations, an approach was used that takes into account the object–system “task–solution tool”, which allows taking into account the errors of all elements of the navigation tool. The introduced structural property “generalized observability” makes it possible to solve the problem of Sb refinement in traditional and non-traditional conditions in the practice of operational navigation and ballistic support of spacecraft flight.

Fill Sealing Material Removal in Electronic Components Using Laser Cutting

2014 ◽  
Vol 1002 ◽  
pp. 51-56
Author(s):  
Lin Sen Song ◽  
Xiao Nan Zhao ◽  
Li Na Wei
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Laser Cutting ◽  
Economic Benefit ◽  
Material Removal ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Utilization Rate ◽  
Electronic Components ◽  
Sealing Material ◽  
Cutting Equipment ◽  
The Mathematical Model

To ensure the normal operation of the electronic components, packaging technology is widely used in the production process of semiconductors, such as stand-alone device, LSI, super LSI, etc. This approach makes a lot of wasted components stay intact and reused. This paper uses laser cutting technology to remove material from PCB resin potting material, establishes the mathematical model of electronic potting materials, designs precision CNC laser cutting equipment for removing potting material under different circumstance. Using precision laser cutting technique, the resin potting material of waste PCB circuit can be removed, so as to expose entirely electronic components and all the solder joints. The technology has high economic benefit by ensuring electronic component function intact for reuse and improving the utilization rate of resource.

scholarly journals Rationing of the number of signals and interlockings in the operational stock of railway stations

2019 ◽  
Vol 294 ◽  
pp. 05007
Author(s):  
Iryna Lebid ◽  
Dmitrii Shevchenko ◽  
Irina Kravchenya ◽  
Nataliia Luzhanska ◽  
Georgii Prokudin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Single Channel ◽  
Queuing System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Component Failure ◽  
Railway Stations ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Calculated Amount

The operational stock of signals and interlockings is necessary to ensure the uninterrupted operation of the electric interlocking systems in the event of their component failure. The existing standards for the composition and number of signals and interlockings available in the operational stock of railway stations are not mathematically based. It is considered the task of justifying the number of signals and interlockings in the operational stock of railway stations, and the factors affecting its quantity are indicated. It is proposed the mathematical model for rationing the amount of equipment necessary to ensure the uninterrupted operation of station signals and interlocking systems with a specified probability. The process of using and replenishment of reserve equipment is described using the the single-channel Markov queuing system model with a limited queue. The proposed probabilistic methodology approbation for the rationing of the amount of reserve equipment was carried out at the stations of the two Belarusian Railway divisions totaling to 58 stations equipped with relay and computer-based electric interlocking. It is shown the efficiency of the calculated amount of equipment in comparison with the existing values.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF POTENTIAL DEFORMATIONS DEVELOPED BY ELEMENTS OF TRANSPORT AND PEDESTRIAN TRAFFIC RESTRICTING GATES DURING MOTOR VEHICLE–GATE INTERACTION

Transport ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olegas Prentkovskis ◽  
Rasa Prentkovskienė ◽  
Ona Lukoševičienė
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Finite Elements ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
The Other ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
First Order ◽  
Pedestrian Traffic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The mathematical model of transport and pedestrian traffic restricting gate is designed. One section of the gate restricted the traffic of motor vehicles while the other limited the traffic of pedestrians. The gate was modelled based on the first‐order one‐dimensional finite elements taking into account only the resilience of the gate elements and the impact of soil on the ground‐embedded parts of the gate support and auxiliary posts. The potential deformations of gate elements were determined based on the mathematical model designed. The specific traffic event was investigated using the mathematical model of gate designed – four situations of motor vehicle–gate interaction were simulated and investigated.

scholarly journals New Mathematical Model for the Russian Population Projections

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Nosova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Asymptotic Analysis ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Queuing System ◽  
Russian Population ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Phase Method ◽  
Modified Method ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mathematical Model

In this article, a new original mathematical model for the Russian population projections as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of customers is built. The research of this system was carried out a virtual phase method and a modified method of asymptotic analysis and was proofed that the asymptotic distribution of applications served in the system at time t is Gaussian. Such a queuing system sufficiently and adequately simulates the process of changing the age structure of the population and can be used to analyze demographic situations in a single country and around the world. The mathematical model has been applied to the analysis of the population growth in Russia. We have built optimistic scenario for population projections to answer the question of how the Russian population will grow without immigration.

scholarly journals EVALUATION PROBABILITY OF INGOING FACTOR IN THE EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF AIRCRAFT

2014 ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
Олександр Курдеча
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Estimation Risk ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Structural Relationships ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Mathematical Model

 This paper describes the evaluation probability of ingoing factor (factor which leads to emergency situations)in the specific situations (abnormal situations and contingencies which evolution dependence from human action in it)as the system of contacts between failures of aircraft and aviation personnel erroneous actions.In this paper investigation is concerned with types of factors to analyse the causation of accidents from a probability factors' point of view.The paper makes it possible to assess the impact of factors on the possibility of an accident. This is achieved by taking into account the structural relationships between risk factors.As a result, we have suggested the mathematical model of estimation risk factors with using information of aviation events in the world statistics provided in the ADREP and formulates the concept of danger, numerical value of which is determined by the probability of occurrence of a factor in the disastrous situation.

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