scholarly journals Credit Risk Assessment Models of Retail Microfinancing: The Case of a Malaysian National Savings Bank’s Branch

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Mazni Asrida Abdullah ◽  
Azlina Ahmad ◽  
Nor Azam Mat Nayan ◽  
Zubir Azhar ◽  
Abd-Razak Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Credit Score ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
New Information

Internal ratings have been used by banks to evaluate the creditworthiness of their borrowers with diverse practices. This research aims to analyse the practice of assessing (or predicting) the credit performance of microfinancing loans of a Malaysian bank and to suggest how the existing performance of credit assessment model can be improved. Logistic regression was used to investigate the predictive ability of information on business operators’ management and accounting skills as factors to predict default risk of borrowers. The combination of these information formed the three (3) models that were used in the analysis. The accuracy rate of each model was then measured. A sample of respondents was selected among microfinance borrowers in a national savings bank’s branch in Malaysia. A total of 106 questionnaires were used for data analysis. The findings suggest that good credit rating, business experience, business financial and forecasting capability are factors associated with whether SMEs will default or not in their payments. The combination of credit score used currently by the bank and the new information produced by this research increases the bank’s ability to predict default.

Development of a Novel Preoperative Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (9) ◽  
pp. 1098-1105
Author(s):  
Eli Mlaver ◽  
Grant C. Lynde ◽  
Claire Gallion ◽  
John F. Sweeney ◽  
Jyotirmay Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Data Entry ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
American Society

Introduction Standardization of preoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment remains challenging due to variation in risk assessment models (RAMs) and the cumbersome workflow addition that most RAMs represent. We aimed to develop a parsimonious RAM that is automatable and actionable within the preoperative workflow. Methods We performed a case-controlled review of all 18 VTE cases reported over a 12-month period and 171 matched controls included in an institutional National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) data set. We examined the predictive value of the Caprini, Padua, and NSQIP RAMs. We identified the 5 most impactful risk factors in VTE development by contribution to the known RAMs. We compared the predictive ability of cancer, age, body mass index, black race, and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) score, to the Caprini, Padua, and NSQIP RAMs for VTE outcomes. Finally, we evaluated concordance between each of the models. Results The Caprini Score was found to be 88.9% sensitive and 32.7% specific using a threshold of 5. The Padua score was found to be 61.1% sensitive and 47.4% specific using a threshold of 4. The novel 5-factor RAM was found to be 94.4% sensitive and 38.0% specific using a threshold of 4. The Caprini and Padua models were discordant in 26% of patients. Discussion Cumbersome manual data entry contributes to the ongoing challenge of standardized VTE risk assessment and prophylaxis. Universally documented information and patient demographics can be utilized to create clinical decision support tools that can improve the efficiency of perioperative workflow and improve the quality of care.

scholarly journals Big Data Analytics for Complex Credit Risk Assessment of Network Lending Based on SMOTE Algorithm

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Aiwen Niu ◽  
Bingqing Cai ◽  
Shousong Cai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Big Data Analytics ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Credit Score ◽  
Credit Risk Assessment ◽  
Index Weight ◽  
Online Lending

With the continuous development of big data technology, the data of online lending platform witness explosive development. How to give full play to the advantages of data, establish a credit risk assessment model, and realize the effective control of platform credit risk have become the focus of online lending platform. In view of the fact that the network loan data are mainly unbalanced data, the smote algorithm is helpful to optimize the model and improve the evaluation performance of the model. Relevant research shows that stochastic forest model has higher applicability in credit risk assessment, and cart, ANN, C4.5, and other algorithms are also widely used. In the influencing factors of credit evaluation, the weight of the applicant’s enterprise scale, working years, historical records, credit score, and other indicators is relatively high, while the index weight of marriage and housing/car production (loan) is relatively low.

scholarly journals Potential Invasion Risk of Pet Traded Lizards, Snakes, Crocodiles, and Tuatara in the EU on the Basis of a Risk Assessment Model (RAM) and Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK)

Diversity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oldřich Kopecký ◽  
Anna Bílková ◽  
Veronika Hamatová ◽  
Dominika Kňazovická ◽  
Lucie Konrádová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Common Species ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Thamnophis Sirtalis ◽  
Indigenous Species ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Species Invasiveness ◽  
Establishment Potential ◽  
Negative Impacts

Because biological invasions can cause many negative impacts, accurate predictions are necessary for implementing effective restrictions aimed at specific high-risk taxa. The pet trade in recent years became the most important pathway for the introduction of non-indigenous species of reptiles worldwide. Therefore, we decided to determine the most common species of lizards, snakes, and crocodiles traded as pets on the basis of market surveys in the Czech Republic, which is an export hub for ornamental animals in the European Union (EU). Subsequently, the establishment and invasion potential for the entire EU was determined for 308 species using proven risk assessment models (RAM, AS-ISK). Species with high establishment potential (determined by RAM) and at the same time with high potential to significantly harm native ecosystems (determined by AS-ISK) included the snakes Thamnophis sirtalis (Colubridae), Morelia spilota (Pythonidae) and also the lizards Tiliqua scincoides (Scincidae) and Intellagama lesueurii (Agamidae).

scholarly journals Risk factors, risk assessment, and prognosis in patients with gynecological cancer and thromboembolism

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 030006051989317
Author(s):  
Xindan Wang ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Zhao Bingbing ◽  
Shape Li ◽  
Li Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gynecological Cancer ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

Objective This study aimed to investigate a suitable risk assessment model to predict deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with gynecological cancer. Methods Data from 212 patients with gynecological cancer in the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were risk-stratified with three different risk assessment models individually, including the Caprini model, Wells DVT model, and Khorana model. Results The difference in risk level evaluated by the Caprini model was not different between the DVT and control groups. However, the DVT group had a significantly higher risk level than the control group with the Wells DVT or Khorana model. The Wells DVT model was more effective for stratifying patients in the DVT group into the higher risk level and for stratifying those in the control group into the lower risk level. Receiver operating curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the Wells DVT, Khorana, and Caprini models was 0.995 ± 0.002, 0.642 ± 0.038, and 0.567 ± 0.039, respectively. Conclusion The Wells DVT model is the most suitable risk assessment model for predicting DVT. Clinicians could also combine the Caprini and Wells DVT models to effectively identify high-risk patients and eliminate patients without DVT.

Feature Selection Optimization Model for Business Risk Assessment Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Noura Metawa ◽  
◽  
◽  
Mohamed Elhoseny
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Functional Link ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Assessment Performance

Financial risk assessment becomes a hot research topic among financial firms or companies to assess the financial status and thereby avoid future crises. Earlier studies have focused on statistical models for the assessment of financial risks and the recently developed machine learning (ML) models find useful to improve the assessment performance. In this aspect, this study introduces a novel Butterfly Optimization based Feature Selection with Classification Model for Financial Risk Assessment (BOFS-CFRA) technique. The proposed BOFS-CFRA technique involves pre-processing at the primary stage to get rid of unwanted data. In addition, K-means clustering approach is developed to group the financial data into clusters. Then, the BOFS technique is applied to choose the subset of features from the clustered data. Finally, the classification of financial risks takes place by the use of functional link neural network (FLNN). In order to ensure the enhanced performance of the BOFS-CFRA technique, a series of simulations were carried out and the results are inspected under various measures. The simulation outcome portrayed the supremacy of the BOFS-CFRA technique over the other financial risk assessment models in terms of several performance measures.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment Models of the Companies Implementing R&D Projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-146
Author(s):  
V. В. Minasyan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Triangular Distribution ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Risk Appetite

Companies implementing R&D projects face their unique features. There is the need for large capital investments, long-term implementation, high growth potential, low probability of success, and diffculties in fnancing among them. Implementation of such projects is associated with high risks. This leads to underfunding as uncertain results deter investors. The problem of assessing the risks arising from the implementation of such projects has not yet been suffciently studied at the level of mathematical analysis models. The objective of the article is to develop a model allowing to explore the risks arising from implementing R&D projects. The author has developed a risk assessment model using the VaR measure modifed for this application. The formulas have been obtained to calculate this measure. They have been adjusted to simple analytical expressions assuming the balanced distribution of cash flow from the project, or triangular distribution. The model considers the most important causes of risks in R&D projects. It can be used in a real-case scenario if a preliminary risk assessment of a project is done before its implementation and a decision is made on risk-based implementation. Moreover, this methodology can be used to standardize the decision-making process for the R&D projects implementation considering the “risk appetite” using the VaR risk measure.

Low rank representation and discriminant analysis-based models for peer-to-peer default risk assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gui Yuan ◽  
Shali Huang ◽  
Jing Fu ◽  
Xinwei Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Low Rank ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Low Rank Representation ◽  
Online Lending

Purpose This study aims to assess the default risk of borrowers in peer-to-peer (P2P) online lending platforms. The authors propose a novel default risk classification model based on data cleaning and feature extraction, which increases risk assessment accuracy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use borrower data from the Lending Club and propose the risk assessment model based on low-rank representation (LRR) and discriminant analysis. Firstly, the authors use three LRR models to clean the high-dimensional borrower data by removing outliers and noise, and then the authors adopt a discriminant analysis algorithm to reduce the dimension of the cleaned data. In the dimension-reduced feature space, machine learning classifiers including the k-nearest neighbour, support vector machine and artificial neural network are used to assess and classify default risks. Findings The results reveal significant noise and redundancy in the borrower data. LRR models can effectively clean such data, particularly the two LRR models with local manifold regularisation. In addition, the supervised discriminant analysis model, termed the local Fisher discriminant analysis model, can extract low-dimensional and discriminative features, which further increases the accuracy of the final risk assessment models. Originality/value The originality of this study is that it proposes a novel default risk assessment model, based on data cleaning and feature extraction, for P2P online lending platforms. The proposed approach is innovative and efficient in the P2P online lending field.

External validation of a risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism in the hospitalised acutely-ill medical patient (VTE-VALOURR)

2014 ◽  
Vol 112 (10) ◽  
pp. 692-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Mahan ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
A. Graham Turpie ◽  
Jennifer Vu ◽  
Nancy Heddle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Medical Patient ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Medical Patients ◽  
Control Cohort ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

SummaryVenous thromboembolic (VTE) risk assessment remains an important issue in hospitalised, acutely-ill medical patients, and several VTE risk assessment models (RAM) have been proposed. The purpose of this large retrospective cohort study was to externally validate the IMPROVE RAM using a large database of three acute care hospitals. We studied 41,486 hospitalisations (28,744 unique patients) with 1,240 VTE hospitalisations (1,135 unique patients) in the VTE cohort and 40,246 VTE-free hospitalisations (27,609 unique patients) in the control cohort. After chart review, 139 unique VTE patients were identified and 278 randomly-selected matched patients in the control cohort. Seven independent VTE risk factors as part of the RAM in the derivation cohort were identified. In the validation cohort, the incidence of VTE was 0.20%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18–0.22, 1.04%; 95%CI 0.88–1.25, and 4.15%; 95%CI 2.79–8.12 in the low, moderate, and high VTE risk groups, respectively, which compared to rates of 0.45%, 1.3%, and 4.74% in the three risk categories of the derivation cohort. For the derivation and validation cohorts, the total percentage of patients in low, moderate and high VTE risk occurred in 68.6% vs 63.3%, 24.8% vs 31.1%, and 6.5% vs 5.5%, respectively. Overall, the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve for the validation cohort was 0.7731. In conclusion, the IMPROVE RAM can accurately identify medical patients at low, moderate, and high VTE risk. This will tailor future thromboprophylactic strategies in this population as well as identify particularly high VTE risk patients in whom multimodal or more intensive prophylaxis may be beneficial.

scholarly journals The Application of Current Proposed Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Model for Ambulatory Patients With Cancer

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 429-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hikmat Abdel-Razeq ◽  
Asem Mansour ◽  
Salwa S. Saadeh ◽  
Mahmoud Abu-Nasser ◽  
Mohammad Makoseh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Patients With Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Ambulatory Patients ◽  
Treatment Paradigm ◽  
Outpatient Settings

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a commonly encountered problem in patients with cancer. In recent years, cancer treatment paradigm has shifted with most therapy offered in ambulatory outpatient settings. Excess of half VTEs in patients with cancer occur in outpatient settings without prior hospitalization, where current practice guidelines do not recommend routine prophylaxis. Risk assessment models (RAMs) for VTE in such patients were recently introduced. This study aims to assess the practical application of one of these models in clinical practice. Medical records and hospital electronic database were searched for patients with cancer having VTE. Known risk factors were collected, and risk assessment was done using the Khorana RAM. Over a 10-year period, 346 patients developed VTE in ambulatory settings. Median age was 57 and 59.0% were females. Lower extremities were involved in 196 (56.6%), while 96 (27.7%) had pulmonary embolism. Most (76.6%) patients had stage IV disease, only 9.0% had stage I or II disease. Only 156 (45.1%) patients were on active chemotherapy, for whom Khorana risk assessment score was calculated. In these patients, high risk was identified in 31 (19.9%) patients, while 81 (51.9%) had intermediate risk and 44 (28.2%) had low risk. No patients were on prophylaxis prior to VTE. Most ambulatory patients with cancer who developed VTE were not on chemotherapy, and many of those who were on active treatment had low Khorana risk scores. This illustrates the need to modify the model or develop a new one that takes into consideration this group of patients.

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