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Prediction of winter minimum temperature of Kolkata using statistical model

Lkkj & dksydkrk ¼vfyiqj½ ds U;wure rkieku dk okLrfod iwokZuqeku 12 ?kaVs iwoZ tkjh djus ds mn~ns’; ls ik¡p izkpyksa ij vk/kkfjr cgq jSf[kd lekJ;.k ekWMy fodflr fd;k x;k gS A blds iwoZ lwpdksa dk p;u vfyiqj os/k’kkyk ls izkIr lrg vk¡dM+ksa rFkk ekSle dk;kZy; dksydkrk ds fuEu Lrj ds iou vk¡dM+ksa ds vk/kkj ij fd;k x;k gS A ;g ekWMy 237 fnuksa ds ¼o"kZ 1997&2000 dh vof/k ds tuojh ,oa Qjojh ekg ds½ vk¡dM+ksa ds uewuksa rFkk dkQh yach vof/k ¼o"kZ 1988&2004½ ds U;wure rkieku ds vk¡dM+ksa es fLFkjrk dh tk¡p ds vk/kkj ij fodflr fd;k x;k gS A bl ekWMy dh tk¡p 178 fnuksa ds vk¡dM+ksa ds Lora= uewus ds vk/kkj ij dh xbZ gS A bl ekWMy dh {kerk dh tk¡p lkaf[;dh; vk¡dM+ksa ds vk/kkj ij dh xbZ gS vkSj bls ldkjkRed ik;k x;k gSA bl ekWMy dk mi;ksx ekSle iwokZuqekudRrkZ }kjk U;wure rkieku ds iwokZuqeku dk vkdyu djus ds fy, fd;k tk ldrk gS vkSj ;fn ckny rFkk iou dh xfr ds :[k esa ckn esa ifjorZu laHkkfor gks rks mlesa lq/kkj fd;k tk ldrk gS A Five parameter multiple linear regression model for objective forecasting of minimum temperature of Kolkata (Alipore) with 12 hours lead period has been developed. The predictors are chosen from the available surface data of Alipore observatory and low level wind data of M. O. Kolkata. Model has been developed from data sample comprising of 237 days (in January and February, period: 1997 – 2000) after stationarity test of minimum temperature data of much longer period (1988–2004). The model is tested with independent sample of 178 days. Efficiencies of the model have been tested with statistical skill score and found to be positive. The model can be used by the forecaster for assessing prediction minimum temperature and modify if cloud cover and wind flow pattern are expected to change subsequently.