scholarly journals Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-550
Author(s):  
ZIEDBEN BOUALLEGUE
2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1513-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Olefs ◽  
Dietmar J. Baumgartner ◽  
Friedrich Obleitner ◽  
Christoph Bichler ◽  
Ulrich Foelsche ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Austrian RADiation monitoring network (ARAD) has been established to advance the national climate monitoring and to support satellite retrieval, atmospheric modeling and the development of solar energy techniques. Measurements cover the downward solar and thermal infrared radiation using instruments according to Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) standards. A unique feature of ARAD is its vertical dimension of five stations, covering an altitude range between about 200 m a.s.l (Vienna) and 3100 m a.s.l. (BSRN site Sonnblick). The paper outlines the aims and scopes of ARAD, its measurement and calibration standards, methods, strategies and station locations. ARAD network operation uses innovative data processing for quality assurance and quality control, utilizing manual and automated control algorithms. A combined uncertainty estimate for the broadband shortwave radiation fluxes at all five ARAD stations, using the methodology specified by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement indicates that relative accuracies range from 1.5 to 2.9 % for large signals (global, direct: 1000 W m−2, diffuse: 500 W m−2) and from 1.7 to 23 % (or 0.9 to 11.5 W m−2) for small signals (50 W m−2) (expanded uncertainties corresponding to the 95 % confidence level). If the directional response error of the pyranometers and the temperature response of the instruments and the data acquisition system (DAQ) are corrected, this expanded uncertainty reduces to 1.4 to 2.8 % for large signals and to 1.7 to 5.2 % (or 0.9–2.6 W m−2) for small signals. Thus, for large signals of global and diffuse radiation, BSRN target accuracies are met or nearly met (missed by less than 0.2 percentage points, pps) for 70 % of the ARAD measurements after this correction. For small signals of direct radiation, BSRN targets are achieved at two sites and nearly met (also missed by less than 0.2 pps) at the other sites. For small signals of global and diffuse radiation, targets are achieved at all stations. Additional accuracy gains can be achieved in the future through additional measurements, corrections and a further upgrade of the DAQ. However, to improve the accuracy of measurements of direct solar radiation, improved instrument accuracy is needed. ARAD could serve as a useful example for establishing state-of-the-art radiation monitoring at the national level with a multiple-purpose approach. Instrumentation, guidelines and tools (such as the data quality control) developed within ARAD are intended to increase monitoring capabilities of global radiation and thus designed to allow straightforward adoption in other regions, without high development costs.


2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Haiden ◽  
A. Kann ◽  
C. Wittmann ◽  
G. Pistotnik ◽  
B. Bica ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper presents the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain. Analysis and nowcasting fields include temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation amount, precipitation type, cloudiness, and global radiation. The analysis part of the system combines surface station data with remote sensing data in such a way that the observations at the station locations are reproduced, whereas the remote sensing data provide the spatial structure for the interpolation. The nowcasting part employs classical correlation-based motion vectors derived from previous consecutive analyses. In the case of precipitation the nowcast includes an intensity-dependent elevation effect. After 2–6 h of forecast time the nowcast is merged into an NWP forecast provided by a limited-area model, using a predefined temporal weighting function. Cross validation of the analysis and verification of the nowcast are performed. Analysis quality is high for temperature, but comparatively low for wind and precipitation, because of the limited representativeness of station data in mountainous terrain, which can be only partially compensated by the analysis algorithm. Significant added value of the system compared to the NWP forecast is found in the first few hours of the nowcast. At longer lead times the effects of the latest observations becomes small, but in the case of temperature the downscaling of the NWP forecast within the INCA system continues to provide some improvement compared to the direct NWP output.


Author(s):  
B. Lencova ◽  
G. Wisselink

Recent progress in computer technology enables the calculation of lens fields and focal properties on commonly available computers such as IBM ATs. If we add to this the use of graphics, we greatly increase the applicability of design programs for electron lenses. Most programs for field computation are based on the finite element method (FEM). They are written in Fortran 77, so that they are easily transferred from PCs to larger machines.The design process has recently been made significantly more user friendly by adding input programs written in Turbo Pascal, which allows a flexible implementation of computer graphics. The input programs have not only menu driven input and modification of numerical data, but also graphics editing of the data. The input programs create files which are subsequently read by the Fortran programs. From the main menu of our magnetic lens design program, further options are chosen by using function keys or numbers. Some options (lens initialization and setting, fine mesh, current densities, etc.) open other menus where computation parameters can be set or numerical data can be entered with the help of a simple line editor. The "draw lens" option enables graphical editing of the mesh - see fig. I. The geometry of the electron lens is specified in terms of coordinates and indices of a coarse quadrilateral mesh. In this mesh, the fine mesh with smoothly changing step size is calculated by an automeshing procedure. The options shown in fig. 1 allow modification of the number of coarse mesh lines, change of coordinates of mesh points or lines, and specification of lens parts. Interactive and graphical modification of the fine mesh can be called from the fine mesh menu. Finally, the lens computation can be called. Our FEM program allows up to 8000 mesh points on an AT computer. Another menu allows the display of computed results stored in output files and graphical display of axial flux density, flux density in magnetic parts, and the flux lines in magnetic lenses - see fig. 2. A series of several lens excitations with user specified or default magnetization curves can be calculated and displayed in one session.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-60
Author(s):  
Anu Subramanian

ASHA's focus on evidence-based practice (EBP) includes the family/stakeholder perspective as an important tenet in clinical decision making. The common factors model for treatment effectiveness postulates that clinician-client alliance positively impacts therapeutic outcomes and may be the most important factor for success. One strategy to improve alliance between a client and clinician is the use of outcome questionnaires. In the current study, eight parents of toddlers who attended therapy sessions at a university clinic responded to a session outcome questionnaire that included both rating scale and descriptive questions. Six graduate students completed a survey that included a question about the utility of the questionnaire. Results indicated that the descriptive questions added value and information compared to using only the rating scale. The students were varied in their responses regarding the effectiveness of the questionnaire to increase their comfort with parents. Information gathered from the questionnaire allowed for specific feedback to graduate students to change behaviors and created opportunities for general discussions regarding effective therapy techniques. In addition, the responses generated conversations between the client and clinician focused on clients' concerns. Involving the stakeholder in identifying both effective and ineffective aspects of therapy has advantages for clinical practice and education.


2011 ◽  
pp. 39-50
Author(s):  
V. Lushin

The author analyzes factors that led to a deeper fall in output and profitability in the real sector of the Russian economy in comparison with other segments during the acute phase of the financial crisis. It is argued that some contradictions in the government anti-recession policy, activities of the financial sector and natural monopolies lead to pumping out added value created in manufacturing and agriculture, increase symptoms of the «Dutch disease», etc. It is shown that it may threaten the balanced development of the Russian economy, and a set of measures is suggested to minimize these tendencies and create a basis for the state modernization policy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Aniek Wijayanti

Business Process Analysis can be used to eliminate or reduce a waste cost caused by non value added activities that exist in a process. This research aims at evaluating activities carried out in the natural material procurement process in the PT XYZ, calculating the effectiveness of the process cycle, finding a way to improve the process management, and calculating the cost reduction that can achieved by activity management. A case study was the approach of this research. The researcher obtained research data throughout deep interviews with the staff who directly involved in the process, observation, and documentation of natural material procurement. The result of this study show that the effectiveness of the process cycle of natural material procurement in the factory reached as much as 87,1% for the sand material and 72% for the crushed stone. This indicates that the process still carry activities with no added value and still contain ineffective costs. Through the Business Process Mechanism, these non value added activities can be managed so that the process cycle becomes more efficient and cost effectiveness is achieved. The result of the effective cycle calculation after the management activities implementation is 100%. This means that the cost of natural material procurement process has become effective. The result of calculation of the estimated cost reduction as a result of management activity is as much as Rp249.026.635,90 per year.


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