scholarly journals The real COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Qatar in 2021: simulations, predictions and verifications of the SIR model

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-62
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
The Real ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Third ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pandemic Wave ◽  
Epidemic Wave

The third COVID-19 pandemic wave in Qatar was simulated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and the accumulated number of cases reported by Johns Hopkins University for the period: April 25 - May 8, 2021. The results were compared with the SIR simulations performed before for the second wave and the number of laboratory-confirmed cases in the first half of 2021. Despite the mass vaccination that began in December 2020, Qatar experienced a new epidemic wave in March-April 2021. As of the end of June 2021, the positive effects of vaccination were still unclear, although the number of fully vaccinated was already approaching half the population. Additional simulations have demonstrated that many COVID-19 cases are not detected. The real accumulated number of cases in Qatar can exceed the laboratory-confirmed one more than 5 times. This fact drastically increases the probability of meeting an infectious person and the epidemic duration.

scholarly journals Impact of vaccination and undetected cases on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Qatar in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pandemic Wave

The third COVID-19 pandemic wave in Qatar was simulated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and the accumulated number of cases reported by Johns Hopkins University for the period: April 25 - May 8, 2021. Comparison with the SIR-curves calculated before for the second wave showed that the effect of mass vaccination is not evident during 4 months after its onset in December 2020. Additional simulations have demonstrated that many COVID-19 cases are not detected. The real accumulated number of cases can exceed the laboratory-confirmed one more than 5 times. This fact drastically increases the probability of meeting an infectious person and the epidemic duration.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Variants on the Second Wave in India and Subsequent Discretion of Possibilities of the Third Wave

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-126
Author(s):  
Sudarshan Ramaswamy ◽  
Meera Dhuria ◽  
Sumedha M. Joshi ◽  
Deepa H Velankar
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Focal Points ◽  
Current Analysis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Insight Into

Introduction: Epidemiological comprehension of the COVID-19 situation in India can be of great help in early prediction of any such indications in other countries and possibilities of the third wave in India as well. It is essential to understand the impact of variant strains in the perspective of the rise in daily cases during the second wave – Whether the rise in cases witnessed is due to the reinfections or the surge is dominated by emergence of mutants/variants and reasons for the same. Overall objective of this study is to predict early epidemiological indicators which can potentially lead to COVID-19 third wave in India. Methodology: We analyzed both the first and second waves of COVID-19 in India and using the data of India’s SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we segregated the impact of the Older Variant (OV) and the other major variants (VOI / VOC).  Applying Kermack–McKendrick SIR model to the segregated data progression of the epidemic in India was plotted in the form of proportion of people infected. An equation to explain herd immunity thresholds was generated and further analyzed to predict the possibilities of the third wave. Results: Considerable difference in ate of progression of the first and second wave was seen. The study also ascertains that the rate of infection spread is higher in Delta variant and is expected to have a higher threshold (>2 times) for herd immunity as compared to the OV. Conclusion: Likelihood of the occurrence of the third wave seems unlikely based on the current analysis of the situation, however the possibilities cannot be ruled out. Understanding the epidemiological details of the first and second wave helped in understanding the focal points responsible for the surge in cases during the second wave and has given further insight into the future.

scholarly journals Omicron Impact in India: An Early Analysis of the Ongoing COVID-19 Third Wave

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Ranjan
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Growth ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Sequencing Data ◽  
The Third ◽  
Second Wave

India is currently experiencing the third wave of COVID-19, which began on around 28 Dec. 2021. Although genome sequencing data of a sufficiently large sample is not yet available, the rapid growth in the daily number of cases, comparable to South Africa, United Kingdom, suggests that the current wave is primarily driven by the Omicron variant. The logarithmic regression suggests the growth rate of the infections during the early days in this wave is nearly four times than that in the second wave. Another notable difference in this wave is the relatively concurrent arrival of outbreaks in all the states; the effective reproduction number (Rt) although has significant variations among them. The test positivity rate (TPR) also displays a rapid growth in the last 10 days in several states. Preliminary estimates with the SIR model suggest that the peak to occur in late January 2022 with peak caseload exceeding that in the second wave. Although the Omicron trends in several countries suggest a decline in case fatality rate and hospitalizations compared to Delta, a sudden surge in active caseload can temporarily choke the already stressed healthcare India is currently experiencing the third wave of COVID-19, which began on around 28 Dec. 2021. Although genome sequencing data of a sufficiently large sample is not yet available, the rapid growth in the daily number of cases, comparable to South Africa, United Kingdom, suggests that the current wave is primarily driven by the Omicron variant. The logarithmic regression suggests the growth rate of the infections during the early days in this wave is nearly four times than that in the second wave. Another notable difference in this wave is the relatively concurrent arrival of outbreaks in all the states; the effective reproduction number (Rt) although has significant variations among them. The test positivity rate (TPR) also displays a rapid growth in the last 10 days in several states. Preliminary estimates with the SIR model suggest that the peak to occur in late January 2022 with peak caseload exceeding that in the second wave. Although the Omicron trends in several countries suggest a decline in case fatality rate and hospitalizations compared to Delta, a sudden surge in active caseload can temporarily choke the already stressed healthcare infrastructure. Therefore, it is advisable to strictly adhere to COVID-19 appropriate behavior for the next few weeks to mitigate an explosion in the number of infections.

scholarly journals Visible and real dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine in the spring of 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Real Number ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Real Numbers ◽  
The Real ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
Optimal Value ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Good Agreement

The visible and real sizes the last COVID-19 epidemic wave in Ukraine, estimated in March 2021 with the use of generalized SIR-model, are compared with number of cases registered in the spring of 2021. We have used the optimal value of the visibility coefficient in order to estimate the real numbers of accumulated cases, real daily numbers of new cases and real number of infectious persons. The results show that the latest prediction for Ukraine is in rather good agreement with observations, but the daily number of new cases decreases more slowly than theoretical predictions. The large real number of infectious people threatens the emergence of new strains of coronavirus and the beginning of new epidemic waves.

scholarly journals On the numbers of infected and deceased in the second Corona wave

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juergen Mimkes ◽  
Rainer Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Fixed Time Interval ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Deceased People

In Germany and other countries, a second wave of corona infections has been observed since July 2020, after the first wave has subsided. We have investigated both waves by a modified SIR-SI infection model, adapted to the data to the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) or the Johns- Hopkins-University (JHU). The first wave is characterized by the SIR model: in a perfect lockdown only a small part of the society is infected and the infections end after a certain time. The SI part considers the incompleteness of any lockdown: at the end of the first wave infections do not completely go down to zero, but continue to rise again, but only slowly due to mouth protection, hygiene and distance keeping. During this first wave the number of deceased people follows the number of infected persons with a fixed time interval and percentage: mostly symptomatic ill people have been tested. This applied to nearly all countries observed, with different intervals and percentages. In the present second wave, the number of daily infections has risen again significantly in some countries, and it may be questioned whether this is due to the increased number of tests. The answer may be given by looking at the daily number of deaths. In Germany, Austria, Italy, Great Britain and others this number has still remained at a constant level for six weeks. In these countries a second wave of died people has not yet arrived. The increased number of tests include obviously mostly asymptomatically infected persons, who do not fall ill or die from coronavirus. However, in some countries, like USA or Israel, the second wave did arrive. The numbers of infected and deceased people both have grown. A real second wave is a permanent threat to all countries.

scholarly journals Simulation and predictions of a new COVID-19 pandemic wave in Ukraine with the use of generalized SIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Identification Procedure ◽  
Pandemic Wave ◽  
Epidemic Wave

A new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, was characterized by almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the dynamics of the epidemic in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of this epidemic wave. The new COVID-19 epidemic wave in Ukraine will begin to subside in mid-October 2021, but its duration will be quite long. Unfortunately, new cases may appear by the summer of 2022.

scholarly journals The Epidemic Curve of Smallpox

1934 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-29
Author(s):  
W. J. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Annual Report ◽  
First Person ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Registrar General ◽  
The Real ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Epidemic Wave

When a disease assumes epidemic proportions, it is now generally recognised that certain conditions govern the rise and fall of the epidemic wave. Farr was probably the first person to attempt to describe these conditions in quantitative terms. His theory was “ the real law (i.e. of the epidemic) implies that the ratio of increase goes on rapidly decreasing until the ratio itself is decreasing.” In the Appendix to the second Annual Report of the Registrar-General he discusses the progress of the smallpox epidemic which had spread through England and Wales in 1837–9, causing the deaths of over 30,000 persons. “Five die weekly of smallpox in the metropolis when the disease is not epidemic… Why do the five deaths become 10, 15, 20, 31, 58, 88 weekly and then progressively fall through the same measured steps?” He suggests, “amidst the apparent irregularities of the epidemic of smallpox and its eruptions all over the kingdom, it was governed in its progress by certain general laws.” He found that the deaths from smallpox in the quarters of the year during the epidemic increased up to the third quarter very nearly at the ratio of 30 per cent. “The rate of increase is retarded at the end of the third period, and only rises 6 per cent. in the next, where it remains stationary, like a projectile at the summit of the curve which it is destined to describe. The decline of the epidemic was less rapid than its rise.” He showed that the fall of mortality took place at a uniformly accelerated rate and calculated a “regular series of numbers” (such that the second differences of the logarithms are constant) for the decline of the epidemic.

In our society, the proportion of youth is higher than any other society. They are important in this regard. But the real question is whether his views, trends and likes and dislikes are different from other generations of society in political terms. What

Think India ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 680-686
Author(s):  
Azad Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
Fundamental Difference ◽  
The West ◽  
Green Party ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
English Speaking ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Political Understanding ◽  
Separate Class

In our society, the proportion of youth is higher than any other society. They are important in this regard. But the real question is whether his views, trends and likes and dislikes are different from other generations of society in political terms. What is the reason for the tendency to see youth as a separate class. That we borrow the principles of politics from the West, where the distinction of generations is more important factor in politics than the distinction of community or class. At one time, parties like the Labor Party and the Green Party have been standing mainly on the vote of the youth for some time. The second reason is that the image of the youth is based on the English-speaking youths living somewhere in the metros. We often consider him to be a symbol of youth. While in reality they are a very small part of our youth. And the third reason is that the part of change, revolution and the politics of change that had set the hopes of the youth are still there in our political understanding. The fact is that the youth class is not very different from the elderly or any other generation in terms of participation in politics, if different then it means that its participation is less than the other class because it is more concerned about education and employment. There is no fundamental difference between the vote of the youth and other generations in terms of voting or political choice. If there is a difference, then only in the sense that the parties who have come in the last 25-30 years have heard more about the youth, hence their choice is more. Older parties usually get little support from the youth. However, it is not related to its youth, because the information about that party is limited to certain people.

The Meditations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Ott
Keyword(s):  
Perceptual Experience ◽  
Developmental Reading ◽  
Basic Structure ◽  
Brain Image ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Real Work ◽  
Sensible Qualities ◽  
The Brain

Despite its difference in aspiration, the Meditations preserves the basic structure of perceptual experience outlined in Descartes’s earliest works. The chapter explores Descartes’s notion of an idea and uses a developmental reading to clear up the mystery surrounding material falsity. In the third Meditation, our protagonist does not yet know enough about extension in order to be able to tell whether her idea of cold is an idea of a real feature of bodies or merely the idea of a sensation. By the time she reaches the end of her reflections, she has learned that sensible qualities are at most sensations. As in his earliest stages, Descartes believes that the real work of perceiving the geometrical qualities of bodies is done by the brain image, which he persists in calling an ‘idea,’ at least when it is the object of mental awareness.

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