scholarly journals Accuracy of Local Knowledge in Prediction Seasonal Weather: Empirical Evidence from North eastern Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abubakar Jajere ◽  
Joshua, Jonah Kunda ◽  
Umar Muhammed Bibi ◽  
Yusuf Maina-Bukar
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Hot Dry Season ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Over the years, West African Sahel’s people developed some strategies for predicting the seasonal weather using meteorological indicators to plan for extreme weather events. This study used information on local indicators of seasonal weather prediction and mean monthly rainfall and temperature record (1981-2017) from Nguru weather station located at Latitude 14°N in achieving the aim of the study. Both qualitative and quantitate (descriptive and inferential) statistical tools were employed in analysing the collected data. The study found that the local population of the study area used meteorological indicators in predicting the seasonal weather. The results of the analysis revealed that the variability of the annual rainfall during the study period was large. An increasing trend of 3.1mm annually was observed. While decreasing trend in the cold, dry and hot dry season temperature and an increasing trend in warm moist temperature by 0.025°C, 0.05°C and 0.0004°C respectively, was observed. Annual rainfall amount accounts for 31% and 2% variability in cold dry and warm moist season temperature, respectively. Cold, dry season and warm moist season temperature respond to any 1mm increase in annual rainfall by decreasing by 0.012°C and 0.002°C, respectively. The Hot, dry season temperature also accounts for 4% of the variability in annual rainfall. The model’s result revealed anyone 1°C increase in hot dry season temperature lowers the annual rainfall by 10mm. This study confirmed that the observed relationship between seasons weather conditions by local population exist. Therefore annual rainfall is the major determinant of cold dry seasonal temperature in the study area.

scholarly journals A reconstruction of the recent fire regimes of Majete Wildlife Reserve, Malawi, using remote sensing

Fire Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Willem A. Nieman ◽  
Brian W. van Wilgen ◽  
Alison J. Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Local Evidence ◽  
Hot Dry Season ◽  
Wildlife Reserve

Abstract Background Fire is an important process that shapes the structure and functioning of African savanna ecosystems, and managers of savanna protected areas use fire to achieve ecosystem goals. Developing appropriate fire management policies should be based on an understanding of the determinants, features, and effects of prevailing fire regimes, but this information is rarely available. In this study, we report on the use of remote sensing to develop a spatially explicit dataset on past fire regimes in Majete Wildlife Reserve, Malawi, between 2001 and 2019. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images were used to evaluate the recent fire regime for two distinct vegetation types in Majete Wildlife Reserve, namely savanna and miombo. Additionally, a comparison was made between MODIS and Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) images by separately evaluating selected aspects of the fire regime between 2012 and 2019. Results Mean fire return intervals were four and six years for miombo and savanna vegetation, respectively, but the distribution of fire return intervals was skewed, with a large proportion of the area burning annually or biennially, and a smaller proportion experiencing much longer fire return intervals. Variation in inter-annual rainfall also resulted in longer fire return intervals during cycles of below-average rainfall. Fires were concentrated in the hot-dry season despite a management intent to restrict burning to the cool-dry season. Mean fire intensities were generally low, but many individual fires had intensities of 14 to 18 times higher than the mean, especially in the hot-dry season. The VIIRS sensors detected many fires that were overlooked by the MODIS sensors, as images were collected at a finer scale. Conclusions Remote sensing has provided a useful basis for reconstructing the recent fire regime of Majete Wildlife Reserve, and has highlighted a current mismatch between intended fire management goals and actual trends. Managers should re-evaluate fire policies based on our findings, setting clearly defined targets for the different vegetation types and introducing flexibility to accommodate natural variation in rainfall cycles. Local evidence of the links between fires and ecological outcomes will require further research to improve fire planning.

Investigation of the Summer Climate of the Contiguous United States and Mexico Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part II: Model Climate Variability

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (15) ◽  
pp. 3866-3887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher L. Castro ◽  
Roger A. Pielke ◽  
Jimmy O. Adegoke ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Phillip J. Pegion
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modeling System ◽  
Prediction Mode ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Abstract Summer simulations over the contiguous United States and Mexico with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) dynamically downscaling the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis I for the period 1950–2002 (described in Part I of the study) are evaluated with respect to the three dominant modes of global SST. Two of these modes are associated with the statistically significant, naturally occurring interannual and interdecadal variability in the Pacific. The remaining mode corresponds to the recent warming of tropical sea surface temperatures. Time-evolving teleconnections associated with Pacific SSTs delay or accelerate the evolution of the North American monsoon. At the period of maximum teleconnectivity in late June and early July, there is an opposite relationship between precipitation in the core monsoon region and the central United States. Use of a regional climate model (RCM) is essential to capture this variability because of its representation of the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall. The RCM also captures the observed long-term changes in Mexican summer rainfall and suggests that these changes are due in part to the recent increase in eastern Pacific SST off the Mexican coast. To establish the physical linkage to remote SST forcing, additional RAMS seasonal weather prediction mode simulations were performed and these results are briefly discussed. In order for RCMs to be successful in a seasonal weather prediction mode for the summer season, it is required that the GCM provide a reasonable representation of the teleconnections and have a climatology that is comparable to a global atmospheric reanalysis.

Effects of melatonin on cloacal temperature and erythrocyte osmotic fragility in layer hens during the hot-dry season

2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Olusegun Sinkalu ◽  
Joseph Olusegun Ayo ◽  
Ariyo Adelaja Abimbola ◽  
Josiah Egbamushe Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Osmotic Fragility ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Erythrocyte Osmotic Fragility ◽  
Hot Dry Season ◽  
Layer Hens

scholarly journals Twentieth-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Expansion

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3349-3370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Thomas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sahara Desert ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Climate Simulations

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational datasets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one, which can mask offsetting but agriculturally sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and northern Africa where the largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of the Niger River in West Africa, and in the Congo River basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes—one of the largest freshwater repositories—has, however, increased. It is shown that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the twentieth century, by 11%–18% depending on the season, and by 10% when defined using annual rainfall. The expansion rate is sensitively dependent on the analysis period in view of the multidecadal periods of desert expansion (including from the drying of the Sahel in the 1950s–80s) and contraction in the 1902–2013 record, and the stability of the rain gauge network. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt, and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the tropics. Specific mechanisms for the expansion are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate simulations from a comparison of the twentieth-century hydroclimate trends. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the African continent remains challenging, warranting caution in the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Supercomputing the Seasonal Weather Prediction

2019 ◽  
pp. 415-426
Author(s):  
Rostislav Fadeev ◽  
Konstantin Ushakov ◽  
Mikhail Tolstykh ◽  
Rashit Ibrayev ◽  
Vladimir Shashkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Weather

scholarly journals TRMM SATELLITE PERFORMANCE IN ESTIMATED RAINFALL OVER THE MIDWEST REGION OF BRAZIL

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Hugo De Morais Danelichen ◽  
Nadja Gomes Machado ◽  
Marcelo Sacardi Biudes ◽  
Maísa Caldas Souza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Rainfall Series ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
Midwest Region ◽  
Regional Water

Rainfall is the key element in regional water balance, and have direct influence over economic activity. In this study, we evaluate the estimates of precipitation by TRMM satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) on the Midwest region of Brazil. The rainfall measured by TRMM satellite was compared with rainfall series obtained by the Office of Instituto de Controle de Espaço Aéreo (ICEA) of Comando da Força Aérea. The TRMM satellite overestimated annual rainfall between 0.6 and 37.4%, with greater overestimation in the dry season. However, the rainfall estimate by TRMM satellite had a high correlation (0.88) with the rainfall series and had high Willmott coefficient. The Northern of Brazilian Midwest had the highest annual accumulated rainfall and the Southwest and Northeast of Midwest had the lowest annual accumulated rainfall. There was a inverse seasonal pattern of accumulated rainfall, with higher values in the Northern of Midwest during the rainy season in the Southwest and Northeast during the dry season.

scholarly journals PENENTUAN MUSIM TANAM, JENIS VARIETAS, DAN TEKNIK BUDIDAYA TANAMAN PADI TERKAIT MITIGASI EMISI METANA (CH4) (Determination of Early Planting Season, Type Varieties, and Cultivation Techniques of Rice as Mitigation to Methane Emission)

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Lilik Slamet Supriatin
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Wetland Mitigation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Ch4 Emission ◽  
Ch4 Emissions ◽  
Cultivation Techniques ◽  
Planting Season

ABSTRAKEmisi metana (CH4) dari pertanian padi lahan sawah dapat dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor seperti cara pemberian air, pengolahan tanah, varietas padi, dan iklim. Pada penelitian ini dikaji tahap penentuan musim tanam, pemilihan varietas padi, dan tahap terakhir adalah teknik budidaya pertanian padi lahan sawah yang terkait mitigasi emisi CH4. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa musim tanam padi pada musim kemarau menghasilkan emisi CH4 lebih kecil daripada di musim hujan dengan pengurangan emisi CH4 sebesar 18,13%. Indonesia yang memiliki tiga tipe pola curah hujan tahunan (monsunal, equatorial, lokal) mengakibatkan periode musim tanam rendah emisi CH4 berbeda antara tipe curah hujan yang satu dengan lainnya. Varietas padi Way apo buru adalah varietas yang menghasilkan emisi CH4 terendah tetapi tetap optimum dalam produksi gabah sehingga dapat dipilih menjadi prioritas pertama untuk ditanam. Teknik budidaya pertanian padi lahan sawah yang menghasilkan rendah emisi CH4 dapat dilakukan dengan membuat genangan air yang dangkal saja, dengan cara pemberian air berselang, dan kombinasi antara pemeliharaan padi, ganggang, tanaman paku air, ikan air tawar, dan bakteri metanotrof dalam satu petak lahan sawah (mina padi plus). Pemberian air dengan cara berselang menurunkan emisi CH4 pada musim kemarau sebesar 59,36% dan pada musim hujan sebesar 51,68% jika dibandingkan dengan pemberian air secara terus-menerus (kontinyu). Teknik budidaya mina padi plus mengurangi emisi CH4 sebesar 21,5 kg/ha/musim tanam dan bakteri metanotrof mengurangi emisi CH4 ke atmosfer sebesar 20-60 Tg. Sawah dapat dijadikan sebagai instalasi terbuka pengolahan udara berlimbah CH4. ABSTRACTMethane (CH4) emissions from rice cultivation can be influenced by several factors i.e. the provision of water, soil cultivation, varieties of rice, and the climate. This study will examine the determination of the growing season, the selection of rice varieties and cultivation techniques of rice agriculture-related wetland mitigation of the CH4 emission. The results showed that the rice planting season in the dry season produces CH4 emissions is smaller than in the rainy season with CH4 emission reduction of 18.13%. Indonesia, which has three types of annual rainfall patterns resulting in periods of low growing season CH4 emissions differ between types of rainfall each other. Way apo buru rice species are varieties that produce low emissions of CH4 but remains optimum in grain production. Cultivation techniques of rice farming rice fields that produce low emissions of CH4 can be done by creating a pool of shallow water only, by way of provision of water intermittent, and the combination of maintenance of rice, algae, plants salviniales, freshwater fish, and bacteria metanotrof in a wetland. The provision of water by intermittent lowering emissions of CH4 in the dry season by 59.36% and in the rainy season amounted to 51.68% when compared to the provision of water continuously (continuous). Mina padi plus cultivation techniques reduce CH4 emissions by 21.5 kg/ha/planting and metanotrof bacteria can reduce CH4 emissions to the atmosphere by 20-60 Tg. 

scholarly journals Hydrochemical Evolution in Ciliwung River – Java, Indonesia: Study of Sea Water Mixture and Mineral Dissolution

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1360
Author(s):  
Evarista Ristin Pujiindiyati ◽  
Paston Sidauruk ◽  
Tantowi Eko Prayogi ◽  
Faizal Abdillah
Keyword(s):  
River Water ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Mineral Dissolution ◽  
Water Type ◽  
Water Mixture ◽  
Hydrochemical Evolution ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Saturation Indexes

The chemical characteristics of the Ciliwung River were analyzed to understand hydrochemical evolution. A fraction of sea water mixture and kinds of mineral controlling for chemicals were also determined. During three year investigations in 2015, 2016, and 2018, electrical conductivity increased with decreasing elevations. Two hydrochemical facies had been identified for the Ciliwung river water; those were Ca-Mg-HCO3 and Ca-Na-HCO3.  The river water mixing with seawater was recognized in the Mangga Dua site in which its water type had shifted to Na-Ca-HCO3-Cl. Based on Na-Cl contents, the fraction of sea water into the Ciliwung River reached 2% in the Mangga Dua site during the dry season and decreased to 0.7% during the rainy season in 2015. The much higher monthly rainfall during the dry season in 2016 and 2018 had washed out invading seawater from the Mangga Dua site; its fraction of sea water was less than 0.4%. Saturation indexes with respect to calcite, dolomite, and gypsum minerals showed an increasing trend related to the decreasing elevations. All water samples were undersaturated with respect to gypsum. Meanwhile, saturation indexes with respect to calcite and dolomite mostly indicated undersaturated, except in the Mangga Dua site that was saturated (during the rainy season in 2015 and dry season in 2018) and supersaturated during the dry season in 2015.

scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HIMAWARI-8-DERIVED OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B7 ◽  
pp. 325-327
Author(s):  
H. M. Park ◽  
M. A. Kim ◽  
J. Im
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Strong Convection

Severe weathers such as heavy rainfall, floods, strong wind, and lightning are closely related with the strong convection activities of atmosphere. Overshooting tops sometimes occur by deep convection above tropopause, penetrating into the lower stratosphere. Due to its high potential energy, the detection of OT is crucial to understand the climatic phenomena. Satellite images are useful to detect the dynamics of atmospheric conditions using cloud observation. This study used machine learning methods for extracting OTs. The reference cases were built using CloudSat, CALIPSO, and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data with Himawari-8 imagery. As reference cases, 11 OT events were detected. The aim of this study is the investigation of relationship between OTs cases and the occurrences of heavy rainfall. For investigation of OT effects, TRMM daily rain rate data (mm/hr) were collected and averaged at 25 km intervals until 250km from the center of OT cases. As the result, precipitation rate clearly coincides with the distance from the center of OT occurrence.

Global and amplified land warming trends over the past 40+ years are entirely human-driven.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Haustein
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
The Past

<p class="p1">The role of external (radiative) forcing factors and internal unforced (ocean) low-frequency variations in the instrumental global temperature record are still hotly debated. More recent findings point towards a larger contribution from changes in external forcing, but the jury is still out. While the estimation of the human-induced total global warming fraction since pre-industrial times is fairly robust and mostly independent of multidecadal internal variability, this is not necessarily the case for key regional features such as Arctic amplification or enhanced warming over continental land areas. Accounting for the slow global temperature adjustment after strong volcanic eruptions, the spatially heterogeneous nature of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and known biases in the sea surface temperature record, almost all of the multidecadal fluctuations observed over at least the last 160+ years can be explained without a relevant role for internal variability. Using a two-box response model framework, I will demonstrate that not only multidecadal variability is very likely a forced response, but warming trends over the past 40+ years are entirely attributable to human factors. Repercussions for amplifed European (or D-A-CH for that matter) warming and associated implications for extreme weather events are discussed. Further consideration is given to the communications aspect of such critical results as well as the question of wider societal impacts.</p>

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