HANDLING TEMPORAL COMPLEXITY IN THE DESIGN OF NON-TRANSPORT SHIPS USING EPOCH-ERA ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 154 (A3) ◽  
Author(s):  
H M Gaspar ◽  
S O Erikstad ◽  
A M Ross
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Ship Design ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Temporal Complexity ◽  
Disruptive Technologies ◽  
Major Market ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Uncertain Future

A core aspect of temporal complexity in the design of non-transport vessels is the uncertainty related to the future market and contract opportunities, and the corresponding changeability that should be incorporated into the ship design to meet this uncertainty. The development of an appropriate design specification for a new ship represents a core strategic decision for ship owners as part of a fleet renewal or expansion programme, with a high financial risk and a long time horizon of typically 20-30 years. This type of temporal complexity is one out of several complexity aspects to be handled as part of a ship design process. In this paper we model possible realizations of an uncertain future for a vessel using the Epoch-Era Analysis (EEA) method. Here, we use the epochs as the primary instrument for capturing major market developments, such as the opening of new offshore areas, new emission regulatory regimes, or the availability of new, disruptive technologies. From these, more specific epoch variables are derived, for which specific contract opportunities can be generated. The epoch-specific performance of the vessels is found by solving a Ship Design and Deployment Problem (SDDP) of concurrently identifying both a preferable ship design and the corresponding path of consecutive contracts that maximizes total revenue. We present a case study related to the design of an Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessel. The study illustrates the complexity in striking the correct balance between optimizing the vessel for an initial scenario, while at the same time providing addition performance capabilities to be competitive in the context of future market requirements.

Handling Temporal Complexity In The Design Of Non-Transport Ships Using Epoch-Era Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 154 (A3) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Ship Design ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Temporal Complexity ◽  
Disruptive Technologies ◽  
Major Market ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Uncertain Future

A core aspect of temporal complexity in the design of non-transport vessels is the uncertainty related to the future market and contract opportunities, and the corresponding changeability that should be incorporated into the ship design to meet this uncertainty. The development of an appropriate design specification for a new ship represents a core strategic decision for ship owners as part of a fleet renewal or expansion programme, with a high financial risk and a long time horizon of typically 20-30 years. This type of temporal complexity is one out of several complexity aspects to be handled as part of a ship design process. In this paper we model possible realizations of an uncertain future for a vessel using the Epoch-Era Analysis (EEA) method. Here, we use the epochs as the primary instrument for capturing major market developments, such as the opening of new offshore areas, new emission regulatory regimes, or the availability of new, disruptive technologies. From these, more specific epoch variables are derived, for which specific contract opportunities can be generated. The epoch-specific performance of the vessels is found by solving a Ship Design and Deployment Problem (SDDP) of concurrently identifying both a preferable ship design and the corresponding path of consecutive contracts that maximizes total revenue. We present a case study related to the design of an Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessel. The study illustrates the complexity in striking the correct balance between optimizing the vessel for an initial scenario, while at the same time providing addition performance capabilities to be competitive in the context of future market requirements.

Executives’ Decision Processes at the Front End of Major Projects: The Role of Context and Experience in Value Creation

2020 ◽  
pp. 875697282097722
Author(s):  
Denise Chenger ◽  
Jaana Woiceshyn
Keyword(s):  
Value Creation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Decision Context ◽  
Front End ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
Multiple Case

The front end of projects is strategically important; yet, how project concepts are identified, evaluated, and selected at the pre-project stage is poorly understood. This article reports on an inductive multiple-case study of how executives made such decisions in major upstream oil and gas projects. The findings show that in such a high-risk context, often an experienced executive makes these decisions alone and he creates value by facilitating growth. We identified three value-creating decision processes that varied by the executives’ risk approach and decision context. These processes depart from the formal project management prescriptions and the strategic decision-making literature.

scholarly journals Analysis of Dangerous Sea States in the Northwestern Mediterranean Area

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 422
Author(s):  
Alessio Innocenti ◽  
Miguel Onorato ◽  
Carlo Brandini
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Rayleigh Distribution ◽  
Surface Elevation ◽  
Wave Steepness ◽  
Sea Waves ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Simulated Field

Extreme sea waves, although rare, can be notably dangerous when associated with energetic sea states and can generate risks for the navigation. In the last few years, they have been the object of extensive research from the scientific community that helped with understanding the main physical aspects; however, the estimate of extreme waves probability in operational forecasts is still debated. In this study, we analyzed a number of sea-states that occurred in a precise area of the Mediterranean sea, near the location of a reported accident, with the objective of relating the probability of extreme events with different sea state conditions. For this purpose, we performed phase-resolving simulations of wave spectra obtained from a WaveWatch III hindcast, using a Higher Order Spectral Method. We produced statistics of the sea-surface elevation field, calculating crest distributions and the probability of extreme events from the analysis of a long time-series of the surface elevation. We found a good matching between the distributions of the numerically simulated field and theory, namely Tayfun second- and third- order ones, in contrast with a significant underestimate given by the Rayleigh distribution. We then related spectral quantities like angular spreading and wave steepness to the probability of occurrence of extreme events finding an enhanced probability for high mean steepness seas and narrow spectra, in accordance with literature results, finding also that the case study of the reported accident was not amongst the most dangerous. Finally, we related the skewness and kurtosis of the surface elevation to the wave steepness to explain the discrepancy between theoretical and numerical distributions.

scholarly journals Changing pattern of forest consumption: a case study from an eastern hill village in Nepal

1970 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 41-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binod Pokharel
Keyword(s):  
Long Time

The PDF of this file is 2,541 kbytes in size and therefore will take a long time to download if you click on the PDF link below. If you would like the file to be sent to you by email, please send a request to [email protected]. Please include the citation below in your request. DOI: 10.3126/opsa.v8i0.1120Occasional Papers in Sociology and Anthropology Vol.8 2003 p.41-58

scholarly journals Agriculture and ritual landscape: A case study from the Magars of Argal, Baglung District, Nepal

1970 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 88-104
Author(s):  
Man Bahadur Khattri
Keyword(s):  
Long Time ◽  
Ritual Landscape

The PDF of this file is 2,357 kbytes in size and therefore will take a long time to download if you click on the PDF link below. If you would like the file to be sent to you by email, please send a request to [email protected]. Please include the citation below in your request. DOI: 10.3126/opsa.v8i0.1123Occasional Papers in Sociology and Anthropology Vol.8 2003 p.88-104

scholarly journals Leadership Style, Ethics, and Strategy in Indonesian Navy - Case Study: Leadership of Rear Admiral Agung Prasetiawan, M.AP, (2017-Present) Commander of Kolinlamil

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Faurna Lusiani Pakpahan ◽  
Hady Efendy
Keyword(s):  
Leadership Style ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Organizational Goals ◽  
Important Thing ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Organization Leadership ◽  
Military Institution ◽  
The Right

In an organization, leadership in an organization exists from a long time ago to the present, and leadership is a very important thing. A leader must use the right style to lead the organization he leads. The leader must also have good ethics in leading the organization and use appropriate strategies, so that organizational goals can be achieved. The purpose of this paper is to find out how much influence of leadership style, ethics and strategy what is used by an organization leader in a military institution that is Navy at Tanjung Priok Command Military Traffic (Kolinlamil) Jakarta, to be able to achieve organizational goals under leadership of Rear Admiral Agung Prasetiawan, M.AP. Kolinlamil is the main command in coaching and operations, which in the field of guidance of Kolinlamil is directly under the head a navy staff (Kasal), while the field of operations is directly under the Commander of the Indonesian Military (TNI). Kolinlamil is a military institution whose main task is to shift military or civilian forces from one area to another based on existing rules and orders.

scholarly journals Case Study - Alpha

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 5040
Author(s):  
Stephen Leybourne
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Change ◽  
High Volume ◽  
The United States ◽  
Limited Range ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Boston University ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Discount ◽  
Discount Stores

This case study was developed from an actual scenario by Dr. Steve Leybourne of Boston University.  The case documents the historical evolution of an organization, and has been used successfully in courses dealing with organizational and cultural change, and the utilization of ‘soft skills’ in project-based management.This is a short case, ideal for classroom use and discussion.  The issues are easily accessible to students, and there is a single wide ranging question that allows for the inclusion of many issues surrounding strategic decision-making, and behavioural and cultural change.Alpha was one of the earlier companies in the USA to invest in large, edge-of-town superstores, with plentiful free vehicle parking, selling food and related household products.Alpha was created in the 1950s as a subsidiary of a major publicly quoted retail group.  It started business by opening a string of very large discount stores in converted industrial and warehouse premises in the south of the United States. In the early days shoppers were offered a limited range of very competitively priced products.When Alpha went public in 1981 it was the fourth largest food retailer in the US, selling an ever-widening range of food and non-food products.  Its success continued to be based on high volume, low margins and good value for money, under the slogan of ‘Alpha Price.’ 

scholarly journals Online Social Gambling and Its Implications for the Study of Marketing Communications

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Ozuem ◽  
Jason Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Single Case ◽  
Internet Technology ◽  
Marketing Communication ◽  
Single Case Study ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Real Money ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
Communication Practices

Gambling has been a part of humanity for a long time, and references to it have been found in some of the earliest dated records. Literature on the topic has been accumulating since ancient times. The advent of Internet technology along with its typical subsets provides a new approach to how gambling is conducted in postmodern times. Drawing on qualitative research and utilising a single case study strategy, this study examines online social gambling and real money gambling marketing communication practices as well as offers some insights into the development and implementation of effective marketing communication programmes. In contrast to existing studies, the paper, in part, proposes integrative and higher levels of marketing communication programmes between online social gambling and real money gambling environments.

scholarly journals DECISION TREE C4.5 ALGORITHM FOR TUITION AID GRANT PROGRAM CLASSIFICATION (CASE STUDY: DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION SYSTEM, UNIVERSITAS TEKNOKRAT INDONESIA)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heni Sulistiani ◽  
Ahmad Ari Aldino
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Grant Program ◽  
C4.5 Algorithm ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Right ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Tuition Fee

In pandemic era, almost everyone struggles for their life. College students are such example. They have difficulty in paying tuition fee to continue their study. Based on this problematic situation, Universitas Teknokrat Indonesia grants the students who have good academic performance with tuition fee aid program. Many variables used for determining the grant made it hard to make a decision in a short time or even takes very long time. To make it easier for management to decide who is the right student to get grant, it needs classification model. The purpose of this study is the classification of grant recipients by using decision tree C4.5 algorithm. That can determine whether a potential student can be accepted as an awardee or not. Then, the results of the classification are validated with ten-fold cross validation with an accuracy, precision and recall with the score of 87 % for all part. It means the model perform quite well to be implemented into system.

scholarly journals Live Shopping dalam Industri Komunikasi Digital melalui Instagram

Prologia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Vinia Fransiska ◽  
Sinta Paramita
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Online Shopping ◽  
Digital Communication ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Marketing Communication ◽  
Communication Industry ◽  
Communications Industry ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Limited Duration

Live shopping is an online shopping activity that is done directly and within a certain duration. This research discusses the live shopping process in the digital communication industry.. The theory used is the theory of marketing communication, social media, Instagram, and digital communication. This study discusses the phenomenon of live shopping activity in the digital communications industry. The method used is a case study with a qualitative approach and using the techniques of interview, observation, and documentation. The results of this study can be seen that the live shopping activity that uses social media to utilize the features of Instagram namely Stories. The birth of live shopping is based on the phenomenon that has been formed over a long time, namely ‘jastip’. Goods sold in the live shopping activity are also more diverse than shop online as usual. It also offers more interactive shopping activities and fun so that buyers feel the thrill of shopping directly on the spot and the limited duration so that the buyers will be encouraged with time. Before live shopping, sellers will promote it by using Instagram Ads or endorsement to influencers. It can be concluded that the live shopping process starts with 3 main steps, promotion, interaction, and transaction. Live shopping merupakan suatu kegiatan berbelanja secara online yang dilakukan secara langsung dan dalam durasi tertentu saja. Penelitian ini membahas tentang proses live shopping dalam industri komunikasi digital. Teori yang digunakan adalah teori komunikasi pemasaran, media sosial, Instagram, dan komunikasi digital. Metode yang digunakan adalah studi kasus dengan pendekatan kualitatif dan menggunakan teknik wawancara, observasi, serta dokumentasi. Hasil penelitian ini dapat diketahui bahwa kegiatan live shopping yang menggunakan media sosial Instagram ini memanfaatkan fitur Instagram yaitu Instagram Stories. Lahirnya live shopping didasari oleh fenomena yang sudah terbentuk lebih lama yaitu jasa titip atau jastip. Barang yang dijual dalam kegiatan live shopping juga lebih beragam dibandingkan berbelanja online seperti biasa. Kegiatan ini juga menawarkan kegiatan belanja yang lebih interaktif dan menyenangkan sehingga pembeli merasakan sensasi berbelanja langsung di tempat dan durasi waktu yang terbatas sehingga pembeli akan berpacu dengan waktu. Sebelum melakukan kegiatan live shopping, penjual terlebih dahulu akan memasarkannya dengan memanfaatkan fitur Instagram ads atau endorsement kepada influencer. Untuk itu dapat disimpulkan bahwa proses live shopping dimulai dari 3 langkah utama yaitu promosi, interaksi, dan terakhir transaksi. 

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