scholarly journals Causes and Mechanisms of Global Warming/Climate Change

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart A. Harris

Comparison of the average mean surface air temperature around the world during 1951–1978 with that for 2010–2019 shows that the bulk of the warming is around the North Atlantic/Arctic region in contrast to the Antarctic ice sheet. Obviously, the temperature change is not global. Since there is a substantial difference between solar heat absorption between the equator and the poles, heat must be moving to the North Pole by surface ocean currents and tropical cyclones. The cold, dry Arctic air coming from Siberia picks up heat and moisture from the open oceans, making the sea water denser so that the warm water sinks slowly down to c. 2000 m. A deep-water thermohaline flow (THC) transports the excess hot (c. 18°C) water south to Antarctica. It is replaced by a cold (c. 2°C) surface water from that area. The latter quickly cool western Europe and Siberia, and glaciers start to advance in Greenland within about 10 years. The THC flow decreases in Interglacials, causing the increased build-up of heat in the Northern Hemisphere (c. 60% currently stored in the Atlantic Ocean), and the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean thaws. Several such cycles may take place during a single major cold event.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Weina Guan ◽  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Xuejuan Ren ◽  
Gang Chen ◽  
Qinghua Ding

AbstractThe leading interannual mode of winter surface air temperature over the North American (NA) sector, characterized by a “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” (WACC) pattern, exerts pronounced influences on NA weather and climate, while its underlying mechanisms remain elusive. In this study, the relative roles of surface boundary forcing versus internal atmospheric processes for the formation of the WACC pattern are quantitatively investigated using a combined analysis of observations and large-ensemble atmospheric global climate model simulations. Internal atmospheric variability is found to play an important role in shaping the year-to-year WACC variability, contributing to about half of the total variance. An anomalous SST pattern resembling the North Pacific Mode is identified as a major surface boundary forcing pattern in driving the interannual WACC variability over the NA sector, with a minor contribution from sea ice variability over the Chukchi- Bering Seas. Findings from this study not only lead to improved understanding of underlying physics regulating the interannual WACC variability, but also provide important guidance for improved modeling and prediction of regional climate variability over NA and the Arctic region.


2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Seppä ◽  
H. J. B. Birks ◽  
T. Giesecke ◽  
D. Hammarlund ◽  
T. Alenius ◽  
...  

Abstract. A synthesis of well-dated high-resolution pollen records suggests a spatial structure in the 8200 cal yr BP event in northern Europe. The temperate, thermophilous tree taxa, especially Corylus, Ulmus, and Alnus, decline abruptly between 8300 and 8000 cal yr BP at most sites located south of 61° N, whereas there is no clear change in pollen values at the sites located in the North-European tree-line region. Pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and several other, independent palaeoclimate proxies, such as lacustrine oxygen-isotope records, reflect the same pattern, with no detectable cooling in the sub-arctic region. The observed pattern would challenge the general view of the wide-spread occurrence of the 8200 cal yr BP event in the North Atlantic region. An alternative explanation is that the cooling during the 8200 cal yr BP event took place mostly during the winter and spring, and the ecosystems in the south responded sensitively to the cooling during the onset of the growing season. In contrast, in the sub-arctic area, where the vegetation was still dormant and lakes ice-covered, the cold event is not reflected in pollen-based or lake-sediment-based records. The arctic regions may therefore not always be optimal for detecting past climate changes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 233-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farahnaz Fazel-Rastgar

Abstract The observed unusually high temperatures in the Arctic during recent decades can be related to the Arctic sea ice declines in summer 2007, 2012 and 2016. Arctic dipole formation has been associated with all three heatwaves of 2007, 2012 and 2016 in the Canadian Arctic. Here, the differences in weather patterns are investigated and compared with normal climatological mean (1981–2010) structures. This study examines the high-resolution datasets from the North American Regional Reanalysis model. During the study periods, the north of Alaska has been affected by the low-pressure tongue. The maximum difference between Greenland high-pressure centre and Alaska low-pressure tongue for the summers of 2012, 2016 and 2007 are 8 hPa, 7 hPa and 6 hPa, respectively, corresponding and matching to the maximum summer surface Canadian Arctic temperature records. During anomalous summer heatwaves, low-level wind, temperatures, total clouds (%) and downward radiation flux at the surface are dramatically changed. This study shows the surface albedo has been reduced over most parts of the Canadian Arctic Ocean during the mentioned heatwaves (∼5–40%), with a higher change (specifically in the eastern Canadian Arctic region) during summer 2012 in comparison with summer 2016 and summer 2007, agreeing with the maximum surface temperature and sea ice decline records.


Author(s):  
Ю.Л. Бордученко ◽  
И.Г. Малыгин ◽  
В.Ю. Каминский ◽  
В.А. Аксенов

Арктическая зона в XXI веке становится важнейшим гарантом устойчивого развития Российской Федерации. Вклад Севера в экономику России во многом будет определяться масштабами и темпами развития Арктической транспортной системы. Необходимо расширение коммерческого и научно-исследовательского судоходства, развитие транспортных узлов и коридоров, полярной авиации, грузопассажирских морских полярных перевозок. В этих условиях Россия в целях обеспечения своих геополитических интересов должна постоянно поддерживать активное присутствие в этом регионе. Оно выражается в проведении научных исследований, разведке и добыче полезных ископаемых, обеспечении морских грузоперевозок с использованием ледоколов и специализированных ледокольно-транспортных судов. Этого невозможно достичь без развития уникального атомного ледокольного флота. В настоящее время Россия является мировым лидером в области применения атомного ледокольного флота для решения транспортных задач в морях Арктики и неарктических замерзающих морях. Для успешной конкуренции России необходимо не упускать этого лидерства и постоянно развивать и совершенствовать атомный ледокольный флот как ключевое звено инфраструктуры функционирования Северного морского пути. В статье представлен краткий обзор текущего состояния и перспектив развития атомного ледокольного флота России. Показана определяющая роль атомного ледокольного флота в обеспечении судоходства по трассам Северного морского пути для развития экономики Арктического региона России. The Arctic zone in the XXI century is becoming the most important guarantor of the sustainable development of the Russian Federation. The contribution of the North to the Russian economy will largely be determined by the scale and pace of development of the Arctic Transport System. It is necessary to expand commercial and research shipping, develop transport hubs and corridors, polar aviation, and cargo and passenger sea polar transportation. In these circumstances, Russia must constantly maintain an active presence in this region in order to ensure its geopolitical interests. It is expressed in conducting scientific research, exploration and extraction of minerals, providing sea cargo transportation using icebreakers and specialized icebreaker-transport vessels. This cannot be achieved without the development of a unique nuclear icebreaker fleet. Currently, Russia is a world leader in the use of nuclear-powered icebreaking fleet for solving transport problems in the Arctic seas and non-Arctic freezing seas. For successful competition, Russia must not lose this leadership, constantly develop and improve the nuclear icebreaker fleet as a key link in the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route. The article provides a brief overview of the current state and prospects for the development of the Russian nuclear icebreaker fleet. The article shows the decisive role of the nuclear icebreaker fleet in ensuring navigation along the Northern Sea Route for the development of the economy of the Arctic region of Russia.


Author(s):  
V. A. Leventsov ◽  
◽  
V.V. Gluhov ◽  

In the beginning of this year, key development priorities of the Arctic region of Russia were presented, which should become the basis for the Development Strategy of the Russia Arctic until 2035 prepared by the Ministry of the Far East and Arctic Development. Its main goal is to improve the level and quality of life through development of human capital, balanced spatial development, development of the economy of renewable natural resources (local production), implementation of large investmentand infrastructure projects, environmental management, etc.Accordingly, industrial enterprises of the North and the Arctic of Russia are faced with the most important task of producing competitive, innovative products, which requires consolidation of allkinds of resources that are always lacking, especially during the economic recession, low oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic.The purpose of the article is to show the role of the use of the relational strategy by industrial enterprises of the Northand the Arctic of Russia as an important factor in their industrial policy.Relational strategies of enterprises mean strategies aimed at forming their relational space as a set of links between them that create partnership advantages in order to obtain relational profit for participants.The article presents the authors’ model for forming relational strategies, consisting of five stages with their description, an algorithm for assessing relational interaction, and also considers the use of relational strategy as an important factor in the industrial policy of enterprises of the North and the Arctic of Russia.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Libo Wang ◽  
Peter Toose ◽  
Ross Brown ◽  
Chris Derksen

Abstract. This study presents an algorithm for detecting winter melt events in seasonal snow cover based on temporal variations in the brightness temperature difference between 19 and 37 GHz from satellite passive microwave measurements. An advantage of the passive microwave approach is that it is based on the physical presence of liquid water in the snowpack, which may not be the case with melt events inferred from surface air temperature data. The algorithm is validated using in situ observations from weather stations, snowpit surveys, and a surface-based passive microwave radiometer. The results of running the algorithm over the pan-Arctic region (north of 50º N) for the 1988–2013 period show that winter melt days are relatively rare averaging less than 7 melt days per winter over most areas, with higher numbers of melt days (around two weeks per winter) occurring in more temperate regions of the Arctic (e.g. central Quebec and Labrador, southern Alaska, and Scandinavia). The observed spatial pattern was similar to winter melt events inferred with surface air temperatures from ERA-interim and MERRA reanalysis datasets. There was little evidence of trends in winter melt frequency except decreases over northern Europe attributed to a shortening of the duration of the winter period. The frequency of winter melt events is shown to be strongly correlated to the duration of winter period. This must be taken into account when analyzing trends to avoid generating false increasing trends from shifts in the timing of the snow cover season.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1885-1914
Author(s):  
D. Xiao ◽  
P. Zhao ◽  
Y. Wang ◽  
X. Zhou

Abstract. Using an intermediate-complexity UVic Earth System Climate Model (UVic Model), the geographical and seasonal implications and an indicative sense of the historical climate found in the δ18O record of the Guliya ice core (hereinafter, the Guliya δ18O) are investigated under time-dependent orbital forcing with an acceleration factor of 100 over the past 130 ka. The results reveal that the simulated late-summer (August–September) Guliya surface air temperature (SAT) reproduces the 23-ka precession and 43-ka obliquity cycles in the Guliya δ18O. Furthermore, the Guliya δ18O is significantly correlated with the SAT over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which suggests the Guliya δ18O is an indicator of the late-summer SAT in the NH. Corresponding to the warm and cold phases of the precession cycle in the Guliya temperature, there are two anomalous patterns in the SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. The first anomalous pattern shows an increase in the SAT (SST) toward the Arctic, possibly associated with the joint effect of the precession and obliquity cycles, and the second anomalous pattern shows an increase in the SAT (SST) toward the equator, possibly due to the influence of the precession cycle. Additionally, the summer (winter) Guliya and NH temperatures are higher (lower) in the warm phases of Guliya late-summer SAT than in the cold phases. Furthermore, the Guliya SAT is closely related to the North Atlantic SST, in which the Guliya precipitation may act as a "bridge" linking the Guliya SAT and the North Atlantic SST.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Semenov ◽  
Tatiana Matveeva

<p>Global warming in the recent decades has been accompanied by a rapid recline of the Arctic sea ice area most pronounced in summer (10% per decade). To understand the relative contribution of external forcing and natural variability to the modern and future sea ice area changes, it is necessary to evaluate a range of long-term variations of the Arctic sea ice area in the period before a significant increase in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Available observational data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Arctic sea ice until 1950s are characterized by significant gaps and uncertainties. In the recent years, there have appeared several reconstructions of the early 20<sup>th</sup> century Arctic sea ice area that filled the gaps by analogue methods or utilized combined empirical data and climate model’s output. All of them resulted in a stronger that earlier believed negative sea ice area anomaly in the 1940s concurrent with the early 20<sup>th</sup> century warming (ETCW) peak. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly average gridded sea ice concentration (SIC) in the first half of the 20th century using the relationship between the spatiotemporal features of SIC variability, surface air temperature over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical continents, sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and sea level pressure. In agreement with a few previous results, our reconstructed data also show a significant negative anomaly of the Arctic sea ice area in the middle of the 20th century, however with some 15% to 30% stronger amplitude, about 1.5 million km<sup>2</sup> in September and 0.7 million km<sup>2</sup> in March. The reconstruction demonstrates a good agreement with regional Arctic sea ice area data when available and suggests that ETWC in the Arctic has been accompanied by a concurrent sea ice area decline of a magnitude that have been exceeded only in the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>


2021 ◽  
pp. 113-149
Author(s):  
E. D. Lapshina ◽  
I. V. Filippov ◽  
V. E. Fedosov ◽  
Yu. V. Skuchas ◽  
P. Lamkowski ◽  
...  

There are very few publications on the classification of mountain mire vegetation in Russia. Several associations in the Southern Siberia mountains (Lapshina, 1996; Lashchinsky, 2009) and the Khibiny Mountains (Koroleva, 2001) are described. Mire vegetation in the Southern Urals is relatively well studied and described in the traditions of the ecological-phytocenotic dominant classification (Ivchenko, 2013; Ivchenko, Znamenskiy, 2015) while the knowledge on that of the Northern and Sub-Polar Urals is extremely limited. There is no information about the mires in the Polar Urals. The paper presents the results of classification of the class Scheuchzerio–Caricetea fuscae of the Yanganape mountain massif (67.68°—67.75° N, 67.72°—68.00° E) and adjacent plains in the Eastern macroslope of the Polar Urals, within the southern tundra subzone. The study area is mountain massif of about 250 m a. s. l., composed of limestone outcrops, with a wavy flat (60–90 m a. s. l.) plain around (Fig. 1–2). The classification is based on 138 relevés made in July 27–August 8, 2017 (Fig. 3). Relevés of similar syntaxa, established in the north of the Western Europe and the East European tundras (Ruuhijärvi, 1960; Dierssen, 1982; Lavrinenko et al., 2016), were included in analysis. DCA and t-SNE (t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding) methods were used for ordination of syntaxa in multidimensional space (Maaten, Hinton, 2008). The calculations were made using the machine learning package for Python-Scikit-learn. In total, 13 associations, 11 subassociations, 12 variants from 6 alliances and 3 orders of the class Scheuchzerio–Caricetea fuscae were identified on the relatively small (about 70 km2) area. Within the order Caricion davallianae, syntaxa of the alliance Caricion atrofuscae-saxatilis, comprising low sedge-hypnum communities on carbonate mineral and organomineral soils in the mountains of the Western Europe, were identified and described for the first time on the territory of Russia. Three new associations (Ditricho flexicauli—Caricetum redowskianae, Tomentypno nitentis–Equisetetum palustre, Tomentypno nitentis–Eriophoretum vaginati) were described on the the Yanganape mountain massif (Table 1), which significantly expands the area of the alliance to the East. Alliance’ communities have some similarities with syntaxa of zonal dwarf shrub-grass-moss tundra vegetation (Lavrinenko, Lavrinenko, 2018), but are generally well differed by the species composition and community structure (Table 5). The order Caricetalia fuscae in the Eastern macroslope of the Polar Urals is represented by 4 alliances. In addition to Drepanocladion exannulati and Sphagno-Caricion canescentis, listed in the “Classification of Vegetation of Europe” (Mucina et al., 2016), we include into order the alliance Caricion stantis — moderately rich sedge-moss fen vegetation of the Subarctic and tundra zones, and the alliance Stygio–Caricion limosae, containing extremely waterlogged meso-oligotrophic and slightly acidic to neutral low sedge fens. There are 4 associations within the alliance Caricion stantis, including new ass. Scorpidio cossonii–Caricetum rariflorae (Table 2). Taking into account statistically significant differences in the species composition of sedge-moss communities dominated by various moss species (Fig. 15, 5-6), ass. Scorpidio scorpioidis–Caricetum chordorrhizae was taken out from ass. Drepanoclado revolventis–Caricetum chordorrhizae Osvald 1925 ex Dierssen 1982 broadly understood in the Western Europe. Its nomenclature type is the only relevé of Carex chordorrhizae-Amblistegium scorpioides-Ass. (Osvald 1925: 37), which sufficient for the original diagnosis, because it contains list of species with abundance and both name-giving taxa (ICPN, 2b, 7). The communities of both associations were identified in the Eastern macroslope of the Polar Urals, where they are represented by new subassociations, which significantly expands the distribution area of these associations to the East. Recently validly described in the Eastern European tundras (Lavrinenko et al., 1916) ass. Scorpidio revolventis–Caricetum rariflorae is also known for the North of the Western Europe (Dierssen, 1982). Its difference from western syntaxa is the absence of many boreal species, which are not able to exist in the severe climate in the North of Western Siberia, as well as the great number of plant communities with the diagnostic species of the alliance Caricion atrofuscae-saxatilis due to rich mineral nutrition, associated with the carbonate soils and calcium-rich groundwaters in the study area. New associations are established in two allian­ces: Carici aquatilis–Warnstorfietum tundrae in Drepanocladion exannulati and Sphagno squarrosi–Caricetum chordorrhizae in Sphagno–Caricion canescentis (Table 3). The floristic features of the latter alliance, whose communities on the northern limit of their distribution have a certain similarity to the arctic sedge-moss mire vegetation of the alliance Caricion stantis, are discussed. Oligotrophic communities of the alliance Scheuch­zerion palustris, occuring in acidic habitats, are placed in the order Scheuchzerietalia palustris that is in agreement with new interpretation of this alliance in the paper by Mucina et al. (2016). Two associations (Carici rotundatae–Sphagnetum baltici, Sphagno compaci–Caricetum rotundatae) are assigned to this alliance. There are few relevés for both Scheuchzerion palustris and Stygio–Caricion limosae alliances in the study area that is why their classification is preliminary, and it will be considered in the near future for the whole North of the Western Siberia on a larger data set. The classification results are confirmed by DCA-ordination of selected syntaxa (Fig.15, Б). However, the differentiation of communities is more clearly demonstrated by the t-SNE method, which allows displaying multidimensional hyperspaces on the plane (Fig.15, А).


1986 ◽  
Vol 32 (112) ◽  
pp. 383-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konrad Steffen

AbstractThe surface condition of the North Water was investigated during two winters (i.e. the three polynyas: Smith Sound polynya, Lady Ann Strait polynya, and Barrow Strait polynya). Since no detailed information was available on ice conditions and the extent of open water during winter, radiometric temperature measurements of the sea surface had to be taken along a flight line of 2650 km from an altitude of 300 m. From November to March 1978-79 and 1980-81, 14 remote-sensing flights were carried out. On the basis of the radiometric measurements, the following ice types were identified: ice-free, dark nilas, light nilas, grey ice, grey-white ice, and white ice. A comparison between the thermal and the visual ice classification (the latter being based on grey tones of the aerial images) showed a deviation of 3%. The analysis showed that in November, December, and January more than 50% of the Smith Sound polynya was covered by young ice, nilas, and ice-free, whereas in February and March white ice was dominant. Moreover, it was found that the two polynyas in Smith Sound and Lady Ann Strait were much smaller than previously believed. In Barrow Strait, a semi-permanent polynya was observed in the winter of 1980-81. The occurrence of polynyas in Barrow Strait seems to be connected with the location of the fast-ice edge. On the basis of the calculated ice-type distribution and heat-flux rates for different ice types, an energy loss of 178 W m-2was found on the surface of the Smith Sound polynya due to open water and thin ice for the winter months November to March. Compared with other ice-covered sea surfaces in the Arctic, the heat release by the sea-water in the Smith Sound polynya is about 100 W m-2larger.


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