Post-Normal Techno-Anthropology

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-265
Author(s):  
Tom Børsen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
International Panel ◽  
Scientific Dissent ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Methodological Strategy

This paper identifies, explains, and illustrates the meaning of Post-Normal Techno-Anthropology as a two-step methodological strategy for analyzing policy-relevant scientific dissent in different segments of science, techno-science, and technological innovation. The first step focuses on epistemological and ethical analyses of the dissenting parties’ positions, and identifies conflicting arguments and assumptions on different levels. The second step involves scholarly discussions on how the analyses of policy-relevant scientific dissent can inform decision-makers and science advisors’ phronetic judgments. Dissenting views on climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change is used as an illustrative example.

scholarly journals Telling the boiling frog what he needs to know: why climate change risks should be plotted as probability over time

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Sharpe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
First Principles ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change is sometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly boiling pot of water, meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate the likelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that the scientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs to know. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climate science communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projections of what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: in 5 min time, the water you are sitting in will be 2 ∘C warmer). I argue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing and communicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments of the likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: the probability of you being boiled to death will be 1 % in 5 min time, rising to 100 % in 20 min time if you do not jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches to risk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health and safety. Importantly, it would ensure that decision makers are informed of the biggest risks and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways in which the science community could contribute to promoting this approach, taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research and for engagement with decision makers before the research is conducted instead of afterwards.

scholarly journals Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (9) ◽  
pp. 1637-1642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan T. Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Group I ◽  
Widespread View

AbstractFor decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is a job for others. This view, it is argued, is incorrect. There is an urgent need for physical climate science to take the needs of risk assessment much more seriously. The challenge of meeting this need has important implications for priorities in climate research, climate modeling, and climate assessments.

scholarly journals Maximum Temperatures and Heat Waves in Mexicali, Mexico: Trends and Threshold Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. ASWR.S32778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polioptro F. Martínez Austria ◽  
Erick R. Bandala
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The City

Maximum temperature trends and the corresponding heat wave thresholds in the northwestern city of Mexicali, Mexico, were analyzed using historical data from the site. We found that there seems to be an upward trend in temperature in the past decades, along with an increased number of days reaching maximum temperatures considered as heat waves. Despite the difficulty of establishing heat wave parameters, the trends of the analyzed field data clearly show their presence, mainly during July and August. This trend is also supported by the analysis of the number of admissions and casualties registered in hospitals in the city of Mexicali. This work is a warning on the frequency and duration of a very important climate change-related effect capable of jeopardizing the health of the population in the region and requiring more attention by decision makers and stakeholders. It also helps to document observed climate trends, as requested by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

scholarly journals La confianza absoluta en la ciencia, o de cómo la geoingeniería sostiene la salvación del planeta/ The absolute trust in science, or how geoengineering holds the salvation of the planet

2018 ◽  
pp. 91-107
Author(s):  
Vera Sanoja Zerpa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Scientific Language ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Ecological Consequences ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Absolute

La intención de este trabajo es hacer una aproximación conceptual entre la geoingeniería como tecnología y los vacíos que la ciencia deja de responder. Es por esto que nos encargaremos de estudiar las consecuencias socio-ecológicas que devienen de los paneles científicos de decisores en esta materia. Para ello, hablamos de la ciencia y la tecnología como la racionalidad dominante que no se ha pensado a sí misma, luego haremos una crítica a la narrativa hegemónica del Antropoceno y finalmente revisamos informes del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC por sus siglas en inglés) para aproximarnos discursivamente al fenómeno y señalar los visos ideológicos ocultos en el lenguaje científico. Abstract This paper offers a conceptual approach framework between geoengineering as technology and the “emptiness” in science as a form of knowledge. This is why we will study the socio-ecological consequences of the role of scientific panelists and decision-makers towards the geoengineering agenda. We would like to talk about science and technology as the dominant rationality that “doesn’t think itself”, then we will make a critique of the hegemonic narrative of the Anthropocene and finally revise some Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports as a way to study the discursive phenomena and point out some ideological interstices in the scientific language.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and Dissent in Climate Risk Assessment: A Post-Normal Perspective

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen P. van der Sluijs
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Science And Policy ◽  
Policy Relevance ◽  
Science Policy Interface ◽  
Interface Science ◽  
Scientific Dissent ◽  
Political Configuration

Uncertainty complexity and dissent make climate change hard to tackle with normal scientific procedures. In a post-normal perspective the normal science task of "getting the facts right" is still regarded as necessary but no longer as fully feasible nor as sufficient to interface science and policy. It needs to be complemented with a task of exploring the relevance of deep uncertainty and ignorance that limit our ability to establish objective, reliable, and valid facts. This article explores the implications of this notion for the climate science policy interface. According to its political configuration the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a "speaking consensus to power" approach that sees uncertainty and dissent as a problematic lack of unequivocalness (multiple contradictory truths that need to be mediated into a consensus). This approach can be distinguished from two other interface strategies: the "speaking truth to power approach," seeing uncertainties as a temporary lack of perfection in the knowledge (truth with error bars) and the "working deliberatively within imperfections" approach, accepting uncertainty and scientific dissent as facts of life (irreducible ignorance) of which the policy relevance needs be explored explicitly. The article recommends more openness for dissent and explicit reflection on ignorance in IPCC process and reporting.

On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
N.E. Terentiev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

The Controllability Precautionary Principle: Justification of a Climate Policy Goal Under Uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugen Pissarskoi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Precautionary Principle ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Goal ◽  
The Precautionary Principle ◽  
Climate Change Policies

How can we reasonably justify a climate policy goal if we accept that only possible consequences from climate change are known? Precautionary principles seem to offer promising guidelines for reasoning in such epistemic situations. This chapter presents two versions of the precautionary principle (PP) and defends one of them as morally justifiable. However, it argues that current versions of the PP do not allow discrimination between relevant climate change policies. Therefore, the chapter develops a further version of the PP, the Controllability Precautionary Principle (CPP), and defends its moral plausibility. The CPP incorporates the following idea: in a situation when the possible outcomes of the available actions cannot be ranked with regard to their value, the choice between available options for action should rest on the comparison of how well decision makers can control the processes of the implementation of the available strategies.

scholarly journals Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelle Thomas ◽  
Emily Theokritoff ◽  
Alexandra Lesnikowski ◽  
Diana Reckien ◽  
Kripa Jagannathan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Behavioral Adaptation ◽  
Human Adaptation ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Adaptation Response ◽  
Cultural Constraints ◽  
Global Evidence

AbstractConstraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 academic studies on human adaptation responses to identify patterns in constraints and limits to adaptation for different regions, sectors, hazards, adaptation response types, and actors. Using definitions of constraints and limits provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that most literature identifies constraints to adaptation but that there is limited literature focused on limits to adaptation. Central and South America and Small Islands generally report greater constraints and both hard and soft limits to adaptation. Technological, infrastructural, and ecosystem-based adaptation suggest more evidence of constraints and hard limits than other types of responses. Individuals and households face economic and socio-cultural constraints which also inhibit behavioral adaptation responses and may lead to limits. Finance, governance, institutional, and policy constraints are most prevalent globally. These findings provide early signposts for boundaries of human adaptation and are of high relevance for guiding proactive adaptation financing and governance from local to global scales.

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