scholarly journals Regional infectious risk prediction of COVID-19 based on geo-spatial data

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e10139
Author(s):  
Xuewei Cheng ◽  
Zhaozhou Han ◽  
Badamasi Abba ◽  
Hong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Distance Information ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Migration Index ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Infectious Risk ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

After the first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was found, it is of considerable significance to divide the risk levels of various provinces or provincial municipalities in Mainland China and predict the spatial distribution characteristics of infectious diseases. In this paper, we predict the epidemic risk of each province based on geographical proximity information, spatial inverse distance information, economic distance and Baidu migration index. A simulation study revealed that the information based on geographical economy matrix and migration index could well predict the spatial spread of the epidemic. The results reveal that the accuracy rate of the prediction is over 87.10% with a rank difference of 3.1. The results based on prior information will guide government agencies and medical and health institutions to implement responses to major public health emergencies when facing the epidemic situation.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Dental Settings: Novel Risk Assessment Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 6093
Author(s):  
Ali Alsaegh ◽  
Elena Belova ◽  
Yuriy Vasil’ev ◽  
Nadezhda Zabroda ◽  
Lyudmila Severova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dental Care ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Oral Diseases ◽  
Infectious Risk ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern, and this emergency led to postponing elective dental care procedures. The postponing aimed to protect the public from an unknown risk caused by COVID-19. At the beginning of the outbreak, for public health authorities, the aerosol-generating procedures and the close proximity between dental care workers and patients in dentistry represented sufficient justification for the delay of dental visits. Dental care is a priority, and for many years, studies have proven that the lack and delay of dental care can cause severe consequences for the oral health of the general population, which can cause a high global burden of oral diseases. Safety is necessary while resuming dental activities, and risk assessment is an efficient method for understanding and preventing the COVID-19 infectious threats facing the dental industry and affecting dental care workers and patients. In this study, for safe dental care delivery, we adapted risk assessment criteria and an approach and an occupational classification system. Based on those tools, we also recommend measures that can help to minimize infectious risk in dental settings.

scholarly journals The dematerialization of telecommunication: communication centres and peripheries in Europe and the world, 1850–1920

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Wenzlhuemer
Keyword(s):  
Telecommunication Network ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Global Communication ◽  
Communication Structure ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Interregional Trade ◽  
Distance Information ◽  
History Information ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Global Data

AbstractInterregional communication has been a key constituent of the process of globalization since its very origins. For most of its history, information has moved between world regions and along the routes according to the rationales established by interregional trade and migration. The dematerialization of telecommunication in the late eighteenth and nineteenth century eventually detached long-distance information transmission from transport and transformed the global communication structure. New communication centres (and new peripheries) emerged. Some regions moved closer to the global data stream than others. It is still unclear how such different degrees of global connectivity impacted on local development. This essay contributes to the identification and valuation of global communication centres and peripheries in order to provide suitable candidates for future case studies. To this end, statistical data on the development of domestic telegraph networks in selected countries has been analysed and interpreted. In a second step, Social Network Analysis methods have been employed to measure the centrality of almost three hundred cities and towns in the European telecommunication network of the early twentieth century.‘You cannot not communicate.’Paul Watzlawick

scholarly journals Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractBackgroundThe COVID-19 epidemic originated in Wuhan City of Hubei Province in December 2019 and has spread throughout China. Understanding the fast evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy.MethodsWe collected individual information on 8,579 laboratory-confirmed cases from official publically sources reported outside Hubei in mainland China, as of February 17, 2020. We estimated the temporal variation of the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (Rt) at the provincial level.ResultsThe median age of the cases was 44 years, with an increasing of cases in younger age groups and the elderly as the epidemic progressed. The delay from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4.4 days (95%CI: 0.0-14.0) until January 27 to 2.6 days (0.0-9.0) from January 28 to February 17. The mean incubation period was estimated at 5.2 days (1.8-12.4) and the mean serial interval at 5.1 days (1.3-11.6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei was highly variable, but consistently included a mix of case importations and local transmission. We estimate that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than three weeks with Rt reaching peaks between 1.40 (1.04-1.85) in Shenzhen City of Guangdong Province and 2.17 (1.69-2.76) in Shandong Province. In all the analyzed locations (n=10) Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold since the end of January.ConclusionOur findings suggest that the strict containment measures and movement restrictions in place may contribute to the interruption of local COVID-19 transmission outside Hubei Province. The shorter serial interval estimated here implies that transmissibility is not as high as initial estimates suggested.

scholarly journals Factors Influencing Employees’ Subjective Wellbeing and Job Performance During the COVID-19 Global Pandemic: The Perspective of Social Cognitive Career Theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzai-Chiao Lee ◽  
Michael Yao-Ping Peng ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Hao-Kai Hung ◽  
Din Jong
Keyword(s):  
Job Performance ◽  
Organizational Support ◽  
Social Cognitive Career Theory ◽  
Subjective Wellbeing ◽  
Social Cognitive ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Work Conditions ◽  
Career Theory ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Social Cognitive Career

The novel coronavirus disease that emerged at the end of 2019 began threatening the health and lives of millions of people after a few weeks. However, social and economic problems derived from COVID-19 have changed the development of individuals and the whole country. This study examines the work conditions of Taiwanese versus mainland China employees, and evaluates the relationship between support mechanisms and subjective wellbeing from a social cognitive career theory perspective. In this study, a total of 623 Taiwanese questionnaires and 513 mainland China questionnaires were collected to compare the two sample groups in terms of the development of employees’ subjective wellbeing. The results show that the Taiwanese sample had more significant development paths compared to mainland China employees in terms of prior knowledge, perceived organizational support, self-efficacy, employee employability, subjective wellbeing, and job performance. Finally, based on the conclusions, this study proposes some specific suggestions on theoretical mode for future studies.

scholarly journals Coastal Migration Index for Coastal Flooding Events Increased by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change: Mexico and Cuba Case Studies

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3090
Author(s):  
Sergio B. Jiménez-Hernández ◽  
Ofelia Pérez Montero ◽  
Eustorgio Meza ◽  
Yunior R. Velázquez ◽  
Juan R. Castellanos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Human Settlements ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Migration Index ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
New Policies

This paper presents a coastal migration index (CMI) useful for decision-making in the current scenario of sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The CMI includes coastal human population density, degree of urbanization, and coastal-flooding penetration. Quantitative and qualitative statistical techniques and the geographic information system ArcGIS View 9.0 were used. Further, a panel of fifteen international experts in coastal management issues was consulted to establish and validate the CMI. Results led to three index components based on 22 indicators. CMI was applied in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico and in Santiago de Cuba province, Cuba. According to CMI estimates, the risk levels associated with SLR for human settlements analyzed in Mexico and Cuba were 5.3% and 11.0%, respectively. The most severely affected communities will require resettlement. Meanwhile, the CMI determined that 15.8% of the Mexican territory studied will be able to withstand the effects of SLR through the management of engineering works that will protect human settlements. The CMI determined that 79.0%, in the case of Tamaulipas, as well as 89.0% of the Cuban territory, will not require new policies or guidelines to promote conservation and protection of coastal natural resources. Lastly, the method used allowed for creation of a CMI stoplight map useful to coastal decision-makers to adopt sound management actions.

scholarly journals The Spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria: The Influence of Transportation and Economic Zones

2021 ◽  
pp. 27-35
Author(s):  
Nathaniel O. Ajayi ◽  
Richard O. Awonusika ◽  
Adeniyi S. Ale ◽  
Ayooluwade Ebiwonjumi
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Economic Zones

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) now known as Covid-19 was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease rapidly spread to other cities in China and to other parts of the world. The aim of this study is to investigate the contribution which the economic zones and movement of people into the country and from city to city and State to State within the country have on the spread of the disease in Nigeria. Data of the daily update of Covid-19 occurrence in Nigeria as given by the NCDC Covid-19 Situation report were assembled. The data of the first index in each State between February 27 and March 28, 2020 with the status of whether they were from foreign travel or from within the community was compiled. The results show that economic zones and human movement contribute to the early spread of the disease. The initial spatial spread in Nigeria was observed to follow closely behind the test laboratory distribution pattern. This may suggest that samples from the locations far from the laboratories were not obtained, hence the suggestion for early aggressive country-wide-large scale testing to cover almost everyone should be started very early before the spread is everywhere. The test labs should cover the whole country with the tests made free and mandatory to encourage and force people to come out for it and the restriction protocols should strictly be adhered to. The boarders of the country should be closed early to stop further import of the disease from the high risk countries. When the airports are later re-opened, they should not be to the high-risk countries of the disease. There is also a need for a national policy on responding to and managing any future public health crisis such as Covid-19 pandemic before its occurrence. This policy will help the government to know what to start doing quickly when there is any occurrence. Government should also look inward to mobilize the scientists inside the country by providing research grants purposely to combat the pandemic. Such grants will enable our scientists to make their contribution in addition to the ones made by the scientists outside the country.

Face masks are an essential tool to mitigate the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: a call to action

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-159
Author(s):  
P. Dehgani-Mobaraki ◽  
A. Kamber Zaidi ◽  
J.M. Levy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Upper Airway ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Call To Action ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Health And Disease ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Over the past several months, an increasing volume of infor- mation has expanded awareness regarding the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus associated with COVID-19. Following the pandemic declaration by the World Health Orga- nization (WHO), global authorities immediately took measures to reduce the transmission and subsequent morbidity associa- ted with this highly contagious disease. However, despite initial success in “flattening the curve” of viral transmission, many areas of the world are currently experiencing an increase in com- munity transmission, threatening to replicate the early public health emergencies experienced by Italy (1,2). In addition, the possibility of contact tracing through geosocial applications and public service platforms have been met with variable interest (3). Given current spread and the upcoming influenza season, it is essential that we use our voices as experts in upper airway health and disease to educate and encourage all communities to adopt appropriate protective measures, including the routine use of facemasks.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Péter Boldog ◽  
Tamás Tekeli ◽  
Zsolt Vizi ◽  
Attila Dénes ◽  
Ferenc A. Bartha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Destination Country ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Local Reproduction

We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.

scholarly journals Trustworthy COVID-19 Mapping: Geo-spatial Data Literacy Aspects of Choropleth Maps

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 155-161
Author(s):  
Carsten Juergens
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Thematic Maps ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Data Literacy ◽  
Web Mapping ◽  
Research Organizations ◽  
Choropleth Maps

AbstractSince the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic is a global phenomenon, many scientists and research organizations create thematic maps to visualize and understand the spatial spread of the disease and to inform mankind. Nowadays, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and web mapping technologies enable people to create digital maps on demand. This fosters the permanent update of COVID-19 map products, even by non-cartographers, and their publication in news, media and scientific publications. With the ease and speed of map-making, many map creators seem to forget about the fundamental principles of good and easy-to-read thematic choropleth maps, which requires geo-spatial data literacy. Geo-spatial data literacy is an important skill, to be able to judge the reliability of spatial data, and to create ingenuous thematic maps. This contribution intends to make people of disciplines other than those that are map-related aware of the power of thematic maps and how one can create trustworthy thematic maps instead of misleading thematic maps which could, in a worst case,  lead to misinterpretation.

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