scholarly journals Spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico at the municipality level

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12685
Author(s):  
Jean-François Mas ◽  
Azucena Pérez-Vega

In recent history, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks affecting humanity. The World Health Organization has defined the outbreak of COVID-19 as a pandemic, and the massive growth of the number of infected cases in a short time has caused enormous pressure on medical systems. Mexico surpassed 3.7 million confirmed infections and 285,000 deaths on October 23, 2021. We analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico using the georeferenced confirmed cases aggregated at the municipality level. We computed weekly Moran’s I index to assess spatial autocorrelation over time and identify clusters of the disease using the “flexibly shaped spatial scan” approach. Finally, we compared Euclidean, cost, resistance distances and gravitational model to select the best-suited approach to predict inter-municipality contagion. We found that COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico is characterised by clusters evolving in space and time as parallel epidemics. The gravitational distance was the best model to predict newly infected municipalities though the predictive power was relatively low and varied over time. This study helps us understand the spread of the epidemic over the Mexican territory and gives insights to model and predict the epidemic behaviour.

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. e0198125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan L. Norris ◽  
Veronica Ivey Sawin ◽  
Mauricio Ferri ◽  
Laura Raques Sastre ◽  
Teegwendé V. Porgo

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1776) ◽  
pp. 20180431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin N. Thompson ◽  
Oliver W. Morgan ◽  
Katri Jalava

The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results from a simple model characterizing an Ebola outbreak suggest that a surveillance sensitivity (i.e. case reporting percentage) of 79% is necessary for 95% confidence that an outbreak is over after 42 days without symptomatic cases. With weaker surveillance, unrecognized transmission may still occur: if the surveillance sensitivity is only 40%, then 62 days must be waited for 95% certainty. By quantifying the certainty in end-of-outbreak declarations, public health decision-makers can plan and communicate more effectively.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This issue is linked with the earlier theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1263
Author(s):  
Stephanie PD ◽  
Enjelina S ◽  
Angelica MF ◽  
Imelda Martinelli

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines the 2019-nCoV type of corona virus as a pandemic of a new type of disease spread throughout the world, this is not only a public health case, but will touch every sector. The COVID-19 (cov-19) pandemic has resulted in an emergency for the healthy condition of the Indonesian people, so President Joko Widodo has issued Presidential Decree No. 11/2020. In "procuring vaccines and implementing vaccinations for the prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic" President Joko Widodo stipulates Presidential Decree No. 14/2021. In choosing health facilities and infrastructure independently & responsibly, every human being has the right to choose according to his wishes, due to the pandemic conditions that concern the interests of the people and the state, so giving vaccinations is actually voluntary because emergency conditions can be forced. Although there is already a legal umbrella for Law No. 4/1984: "Infectious Disease Outbreaks" and Law No. 6/2018: "Health Quarantine", many in the field agree and vice versa on the implementation of vaccination in the community. The purpose of the study is to understand the nature of the administration of the corona vaccine according to the laws and regulations adopted and the factors that occur in society. Using a normative method with a qualitative approach. Giving vaccines to the community is forced. limited availability of vaccines; there are those who support there are those who are antipathy from the community regarding the implementation of vaccination; uneven distribution. The reason for the community's refusal to receive the Covid-19 vaccine is due to different trusts, this is supported by the lack of communication channels as well as the delivery of information that is not well targeted, the data on the type of vaccine is limited in information, the availability of the Covid-19 vaccine, as well as safe conditions. The government should fully support the Nusantara vaccine and the Merah Putih vaccine developed by Indonesian researchers. World Health Organizatioan (WHO) mendefinisikan Virus corona jenis Virus 2019-nCoV sebagai pandemi jenis penyebaran penyakit baru keseluruh dunia, hal ini bukan hanya kasus kesehatan masyarakat, tapi akan menyentuh setiap sektor. Pandemi covid-19(cov-19) mengakibatkan kedaruratan kondisi sehat khalayak Indonesia, sehingga Presiden Joko Widodo menetapkan KeppresNo.11/2020. Dalam “pengadaan vaksin dan pelaksanaan vaksinasi untuk penanggulangan pandemi covid-19” Presiden Joko widodo menetapkan Perpres No.14/2021. Dalam memilih sarana juga prasarana kesehatan secara mandiri & bertangggungjawab tiap manusia punya hak memilih sesuai dengan keinginannya, berhubung kondisi pandemi yang menyangkut kepentingan rakyat dan negara lebih diutamakan, jadi pemberian vaksinasi yang sebenaranya bersifat volunteer karena kondisi darurat bisa bersifat dipaksakan. Meskipun sudah ada payung hukum UU No.4/1984:”Wabah Penyakit Menular” serta UU No.6/2018:“Kekarantinaan Kesehatan”, tapi dilapangan banyak yang setuju dan sebaliknya pada pelaksanaan vaksinasi dimasyarakat. Tujuan penelitian untuk memahami sifat dari pemberian vaksin corona menurut peraturan perundangan yang dianut dan faktor- faktor yang terjadi di masyarakat.  Memakai metode normatif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Pemberian vaksin kepada masyarakat bersifat memaksa. keterbatasan ketersedian vaksin; ada yang mendukung ada yang antipati dari masyarakat terkait pelaksanaan vaksinasi; penyaluran yang tidak merata. Alasan penolakan masyarakat dalam menerima vaksin Covid-19 dikarenakan adanya trust yang berbeda,  hal ini didukung kurangnya alur komunikasi juga cara penyampaian informasi yang kurang tepat sasaran, data jenis vaksin terbatas informasinya, ketersediaan vaksinCov-19, juga syarat aman. Pemerintah selayaknya mendukung penuh vaksin Nusantara dan vaksin Merah Putih  yang dikembangkan para peneliti Indonesia.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. e0202782
Author(s):  
Susan L. Norris ◽  
Veronica Ivey Sawin ◽  
Mauricio Ferri ◽  
Laura Reques Sastre ◽  
Teegwendé V. Porgo

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanisha M. Fazal

Abstract One likely effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be an increased focus on health diplomacy, a topic that has rarely been taken up by international relations scholars. After reviewing existing literature on health diplomacy, I argue for the utility of distinguishing states’ aims from their practices of health diplomacy in advancing our understanding of when states engage in health diplomacy with a bilateral, regional, or global scope. The recent history of twenty-first century infectious disease outbreaks suggests a possible move away from health diplomacy with global participation. COVID-19 provides numerous examples, from widespread criticism of the World Health Organization to increased bilateral health aid and the creation of a regional vaccine initiative. As pandemics become more frequent, however, more localized health diplomacy is likely to be less effective, given the necessity of global mitigation and containment.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meghna Ann Arunachalam ◽  
Aarti Halwai

AbstractOver the past 6 months, coronavirus-induced disease (COVID-19) has spread across 212 countries, affecting millions of people. As it has no known cure, social distancing is highly recommended for prevention of spread of the disease. Here, we have described the impact of the social distancing measures implemented by the Government of India on various sections of the society, especially the vulnerable sections. Furthermore, we have presented an analysis of these measures, according to the World Health Organization´s Guidance for Managing Ethical Issues in Infectious Disease Outbreaks (2016); we have also applied principles, as applicable, from the Indian Council of Medical Research’s National Ethical Guidelines for Biomedical and Health Research Involving Human Participants (2017). Finally, we have presented several measures that should have been adopted before and in addition to implementing the lockdown to improve its effectiveness.


Author(s):  
Bimandra A Djaafara ◽  
Natsuko Imai ◽  
Esther Hamblion ◽  
Benido Impouma ◽  
Christl A Donnelly ◽  
...  

Abstract The end-of-outbreak declaration is an important step in controlling infectious disease outbreaks. An objective estimation of the confidence level that an outbreak is over is important to reduce the risk of post-declaration flare-ups. We developed a simulation-based model to quantify that confidence. We tested it on simulated Ebola Virus Disease data. We found these confidence estimates were most sensitive to the instantaneous reproduction number, the reporting rate, and the time between the symptom onset to death or recovery of the last detected case. For Ebola Virus Disease, our results suggest that the current World Health Organization criterion of 42 days since the recovery or death of the last detected case is too short and sensitive to underreporting. Therefore, we suggest a shift to a preliminary end-of-outbreak declaration after 63 days from the symptom onset day of the last detected case. This preliminary declaration should still be followed by 90 days of enhanced surveillance to capture potential flare-ups of cases, after which the official end-of-outbreak can be declared. This sequence corresponds to more than 95% confidence that an outbreak is over in most of the scenarios examined. Our framework is generic, and therefore could be adapted to estimate end-of-outbreak confidence for other infectious diseases.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ancha Rani ◽  
Vandana Singh Malik ◽  
Rakesh Kumar Behamani

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health problem affecting around 213 countries and territories worldwide, with more than 6,474,200 cases reported and 382,914 deaths documented so far. The World Health Organization announced COVID-19 is a pandemic outbreak on 11 March, 2020. We are facing a medical emergency because of COVID-19 pandemic. These large incidents have negative and detrimental effects on mental health and well-being of individuals worldwide. Widespread infectious disease outbreaks such as COVID-19 are linked to mental illness symptoms and psychological distress. Preliminary studies indicate that depression (28%) and anxiety (16%) symptoms and self-reported stress (8 %) are typical psychological responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which could be correlated with sleep disturbance. The physical and psychological wellbeing of general people, particularly health care practitioners, has been profoundly affected by illness. The main objective of this review-based study is to focus mental health and psychological interventions which can be provided during this pandemic. Stress, fear, anxiety, panic, frustration is very common during COVID-19 pandemic and these can be reduced by some psychological intervention measures.


2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
MELISSA G. CURLEY ◽  
JONATHAN HERINGTON

AbstractInfectious disease outbreaks primarily affect communities of individuals with little reference to the political borders which contain them; yet, the state is still the primary provider of public health capacity. This duality has profound effects for the way disease is framed as a security issue, and how international organisations, such as the World Health Organization, assist affected countries. The article seeks to explore the role that domestic political relationships play in mediating the treatment of diseases as security issues. Drawing upon an analysis of the securitisation of avian influenza in Vietnam and Indonesia, the article discusses the effect that legitimacy, competing referents and audiences have on the external and internal policy reactions of states to infectious diseases, specifically in their interpretation of disease as a security threat. In doing so, we extend upon existing debates on the Copenhagen School's securitisation framework, particularly on the impact of domestic political structures on securitisation processes in non-Western, non-democratic and transitional states.


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