scholarly journals Modeling of Nigeria’s Economic Growth Rate: A Probability Distribution Fitting Approach

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Eke, Charles N ◽  
Osuji, George Amaeze ◽  
Nwosu, Dozie Felix
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Laplace Distribution ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Generalized Logistic Distribution

This study examined the probability distribution that best described the quarterly economic growth rate of Nigeria between 1960- 2015. The study collected secondary data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2015 on Gross Domestic Product to compute the economic growth rate of Nigeria. Six theoretical statistical distributions were fitted via Normal Distribution, Logistic Distribution, Laplace Distribution, Cauchy Distribution, Gumbel (Largest Extreme Value) Distribution and Generalized Logistic Distribution. The Laplace Distribution fitted the data as confirmed by Kolmogorov Simonov goodness of fit test, Akaike Information Criteria and Bayes Information Criteria. The probabilities of economic growth rate behaviours were obtained from the best fit distribution. The analysis showed that the chance of obtaining a negative quarterly economic growth rate is 28%. The chance of an economic recession is 8%. Also, the probability of having a positive single digit quarterly economic growth rate is 46%. In addition, having a double digit positive quarterly economic growth rate is 26%.  

scholarly journals Selecting the probability distribution of annual maximum temperature in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 01010
Author(s):  
Nurfatini Mohd Supian ◽  
Husna Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Annual Maximum Temperature

The issues on global warming have become very popular and been discussed both locally and internationally. This phenomenon due to the temperature rises will increase the variability of climate and more natural disasters were expected to occur. Increasing of global temperature will affect the agricultural sector, increase some of the infectious diseases that may lead to high mortality rates in humans, high demand for electricity, water and food which eventually affecting the economy of Malaysia. Hence, this work aims to study the best fitted probability distribution that describes the annual maximum temperature recorded at seventeen meteorological stations in Malaysia. The Normal, Lognormal, Gamma, Weibull and Generalized Skew Logistic distributions are considered using the maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate the parameters. The goodness of fit test and model selection criteria such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov and AndersonDarling tests, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion are used to measure the accuracy of the predicted data using theoretical probability distributions. The results show that most of the stations favour the Generalized Skew Logistic distribution as the best fitted probability distribution. Also, some stations favour the Normal, Lognormal as well as Weibull distribution as the best fitted distribution to describe the annual maximum temperature.

scholarly journals Influence of corruption on economic growth rate and foreign investment

2008 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Podobnik ◽  
Jia Shao ◽  
Djuro Njavro ◽  
Plamen Ch. Ivanov ◽  
H. E. Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Growth Rate

External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ly Dai Hung
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debt supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debt rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over the 1990–2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows a U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing and then increasing on the external debt supply. A possible explanation can rely on the sovereign debt rating. For low supply of external debts, more supply of debts reduces the debt rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed effect panel regression.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE STATE SOCIAL POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE

2010 ◽  
pp. 56-59
Author(s):  
A. N. Ryahovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The State ◽  
Special Significance ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
The People ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scientific Justification

As a result of the global financial and economic crisis, social problems have sharpened significantly. They affect the interest of the most population of the country. The efficiency of anti-recessionary measures and their productivity in the social field are analyzed in the article. According to the adjusted estimates of the RF Government, decrease in actual income of the people will continue and only by the end of 2012 a growth by only 3% to 2008 level is projected. The degree of elaboration and scientific justification of the state turnaround policy are getting special significance.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Economic Activity in the Rural Area of Region 2 South - East

2021 ◽  
Vol 95 ◽  
pp. 01007
Author(s):  
Daniela – Lavinia Balasan ◽  
Dragoş Horia Buhociu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Current State ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

When we talk about economic development, we can refer to improve the standard of living and the prosperity of the population. This is due by increasing per capita income. In order to analyze economic activity, severe indicators must be studied, namely productivity, economic growth rate, labour force share, gross domestic product. In order to carry out as accurate an analysis as possible, it is required to discover the bottlenecks and problems that Region 2 South East makes and to develop a set of reservations and indications leading to the reduction and, why not, the removal of negative aspects. The main purpose of this work is to achieve a strategic plan by studying the current state and the impact of the economic system in recent times in all its forms, with a view to the development of the countryside of Region 2 South – East. I set out to create a website based on the advice of small rural entrepreneurs that evolves gathering information in realistically identifying all the strengths and concentrating them in the region’s potential innovation.

scholarly journals Factors affecting stock market index volatility: Empirical study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-176
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ali Al-Rimawi ◽  
Thair Adnan Kaddumi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Impact

How is stock market price volatility affected, and what is the nature of the impact that macroeconomic variables do on the stock market price direction? The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of some selected macroeconomic variables (inflation rate (INR), interest rate (IR), economic growth rate (EGR), and foreign investment (FI)) on Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) fluctuation for the period 1999–2018. The information is based on the annual data published by industrial companies listed at ASE. The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach, also simple and multiple linear regression analysis was employed for the mentioned purpose (Nurfadilah & Samidi, 2017). The results revealed that there is no statistically significant impact of INR, IR, EGR, and FI collectively on ASE performance (Niewińska, 2020). Individually, the results indicated that there is a statistically significant impact of all variables (INR, IR, EGR, and FI) on ASE performance. Additionally, the results concluded that foreign investment, portrayed the highest impact factor on ASE performance, followed by a change in average interest rate, then inflation rate, and the least impact attributes to the economic growth rate. Finally, the research recommends that Jordanian banks should reduce the lending interest rate to enhance investment in securities and improve economic growth rate, also Jordanian authorities should encourage foreign direct and indirect investment and make more efforts to attract more foreign investment, either in the form of tax incentives or by extending finance at low-interest rates.

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