Malaysian and Italian trend line for Covid-19: A study on trend analysis

The first objective of this study was to evaluate trend line pattern, obtain the appropriate statistical equation model, and predict individual numbers infected by Covid-19. The second objective is to obtain a predictive equation model and forecast death rate for Malaysia and Italy. Malaysia's first positive case Covid-19 recorded January 24, 2020, consisting of three cases. Collected from January 24 to March 29, 2020. Sixty-six day-observations, based on their trend line pattern, earned special attention. Although the first positive case was identified on January 31, 2020, involving two patients. From January 31 to March 29, 2020, approximately 59 observations were collected from Italy. On 18 March 2020, the pattern will contrast with the Malaysian Movement Control Order (MCO). Malaysia and Italy collect death figures. A similar methodology will be applied to find the best-fitted model that fits both countries' death-number scenario. In Italy, the number of Covid-19-infected patients rises and meets quadratic trend line patterns. This induces extreme public distress and diversion. The quadratic trend line series analysed individual Covid-19-infected results. After March 18, 2020, it will continue to use a linear pattern. However, trend deaths also follow quadratic trend line pattern. Trend-line quadratic matched Italy's results. The quadratic line-of-trend model projection demonstrated dominance in estimating infected Covid-19. The quadratic death line from daily death collection data also showed superiority in estimating death number. The fitted quadratic model is better fitted in the Malaysian case, but the pattern shifts to linear trend line after MCO is implemented.

Analisis Peramalan Volume Ekspor Melon di PT Bumi Sari Lestari Temanggung Jawa Tengah

Export is an activity of sending goods abroad carried out by a company to increase profits and obtain a better selling price. Companies can optimize profits by minimizing uncertainty in the future by calculating sales forecasting which is useful for planning product inventory to be marketed. PT. Bumi Sari Lestari is one of the exporters in Central Java which exports one of the vegetable and fruit horticultural commodities, namely melons. The purpose of this study was to determine how much the forecast value of the volume of melon exports for the first quarter and second quarter of 2020 at PT. Bumi Sari Lestari uses the trend analysis method. This research was conducted on January 13, 2020 - February 9, 2020 at PT. Bumi Sari Lestari, Temanggung, Central Java. Determination The location of the study was determined intentionally (purposive). The research method used in this research is a case study. The data used are PT Bumi Sari Lestari's melon export sales data in the period of 2017-2019 (time series), monthly data analyzed quarterly from January 2017 - December 2019 with a total of 12 observations. The data analysis method uses the quadratic trend analysis method. The data stationarity test results show that the data is stationary. Melon export volume forecasting results at PT. Bumi Sari Lestari using the quadratic trend method gets results for forecasting in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 15,767,427 kg and in the second quarter of 2020 amounted to 9,916,788 kg.

Determination of Annual Plasma Hormone Levels Associated with Reproduction in Long-Day Breeding Domestic Geese

This paper examines the dynamics of circulating hormone changes connected with reproduction in geese during the annual period related to gonad morphometry. One hundred geese were examined. The levels of prolactin (PRL), triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), testosterone (T), progesterone (P4) and estradiol (E2) were estimated. In both sexes, PRL level patterns fit a quadratic trend with elevations in the post-breeding and the second half of the breeding–laying periods. During these periods, differences in the PRL level between sexes were noted. In ganders, increased PRL levels during the laying period occurred earlier compared to in female geese. Cubic trends for T and E2 in ganders and quadratic for T, P4, and E2 in female geese were observed. PRL was negatively correlated with T in both sexes and with P4 and E2 in female geese. A higher level of T3 and variation in T4 in ganders with a quartic trend in ganders vs. a quadratic in female geese were noted. Patterns of PRL, T, and E2 suggested that the breeding–laying period in ganders may be shorter than in female geese. These findings will be used to explore experimental manipulations of the endocrine axis to increase synchronisation of both sexes.

The visual encoding of graspable unfamiliar objects

We explored by eye-tracking the visual encoding modalities of participants (N = 20) involved in a free-observation task in which three repetitions of ten unfamiliar graspable objects were administered. Then, we analysed the temporal allocation (t = 1500ms) of visual-spatial attention to objects’ manipulation (i.e., the part aimed at grasping the object) and functional (i.e., the part aimed at recognizing the function and identity of the object) areas. We found a reversed quadratic trend in the way participants visually explored the objects. Within the first 750ms, participants tended to shift their gaze on the functional areas while decreasing their attention on the manipulation areas. Then, participants reversed this trend, decreasing their visual-spatial attention to the functional areas while relatively increasing fixations to the manipulation areas. Crucially, the global amount of visual-spatial attention for objects’ functional areas significantly decreased as an effect of stimuli repetition while remaining stable for the manipulation areas, thus indicating stimulus familiarity effects. These findings support the action reappraisal theoretical approach, which considers object processing and tool use as abilities emerging from the integration among semantic, technical/mechanical, and sensorimotor knowledge.

Analyzing Heart Disease Mortality of Filipino: From Statistical Modeling to Health and Lifestyle Education Implications

This paper contributes an interdisciplinary cross-over in studying heart disease mortality of Filipino. First, it validates previous studies on heart diseases via ascertaining statistical models of analyses that estimate heart disease mortality predictability in the Philippines. It then proceeds to understand the implications of the issue through promoting health and lifestyle education. To do this, first, the report from the Epidemiology Bureau of the Department of Health (EBDOH) on mortality cases of diseases of the heart in the Philippines. Based on the statistical analyses, time series analysis suggested that the growth of heart disease mortality in the Philippines followed a quadratic trend. Moreover, symbolic regression (SR) analysis revealed that heredity has more significant influence over lifestyle between the identified factors. Based on the proposed models, this paper implies furthering community-oriented health and wellness programs as practical means to avoid untimely deaths brought by the said diseases. Received: 4 March 2021 / Accepted: 6 May 2021 / Published: 8 July 2021

Age and time trends of dairy intake among children and adolescents of the DONALD study

Purpose To describe age and time trends in dietary intake of Total Dairy (TD) (g/1000 kcal Total Energy Intake) and types of dairy (weight percent of total dairy intake, w%TD) represented as Low Fat Dairy (LFD), High Sugar Dairy (HSD), Fermented Dairy (FD) and Liquid Dairy (LD) among children and adolescents in Germany. Methods Overall, 10,333 3-day dietary records kept between 1985 and 2019 by 1275 DONALD participants (3.5–18.5 years; boys: 50.8%) were analyzed using polynomial mixed-effects regression models. Results TD intake decreased with age (♂: linear trend p < 0.0001; ♀: linear and quadratic trend p < 0.0001), whereas FD (♀: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.02) increased slightly in girls. HSD (♂: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.004; ♀: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.005) and LD (linear, quadratic trend p ≤ 0.0002) decreased with age. In terms of time trends, TD intake decreased in the last three decades, especially since 1995 (quadratic trend for ♂ 0.0007 and ♀ p = 0.004). LFD intake increased until 2010 and decreased thereafter (linear, quadratic, cubic trend p < 0.0001). HSD decreased until 1995, then increased until 2010 and decreased again afterwards (♂: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.001; ♀: linear, quadratic, cubic trend p ≤ 0.003). While FD intake increased linear (in both ♂ and ♀: p < 0.0001), LD intake decreased (linear, quadratic trend p ≤ 0.03). Conclusion Our results showed changes in dairy consumption patterns among children and adolescents over the past three decades, demonstrating a decrease in TD intake with age and time, and a shift from liquid to solid dairy products with a simultaneous increase in fermented dairy products, while LFD and HSD fluctuated over time. Further evaluations will examine the health significance of these consumption patterns.

Smokers’ perceptions of incentivised smoking cessation programmes: Examining how payment thresholds change with income

Introduction Studies demonstrate that financial incentive programmes increase smoking cessation. However, there is little guidance on which incentive magnitudes will ensure optimal enrolment and motivation levels. This study investigates current smokers’ perceptions of varying incentive magnitudes to identify whether there is evidence for optimal amount(s), and whether perceptions differ by income group. Methods Studies 1 (N = 56) and 2 (N = 147) were conducted online via Prolific.co. Current smokers were randomly shown multiple hypothetical incentive programmes which differed only in the incentive amount offered. For each programme, smokers rated its appeal, their likelihood of enrolling, and predicted their motivation to quit if enrolled. Growth models were used to investigate the relationship between perspectives and the incentive amount. Results An increasing quadratic trend in smokers’ perceptions of programmes as the incentive amount increased was identified. Incentive amounts beyond approximately £50-75/week (£500 to £750 total) did not significantly alter perceptions of programmes. In Study 2, high-income smokers found programmes significantly less appealing and motivating than low-income smokers, although no significant between-group differences were observed in the likelihood of enrolment. No significant differences were observed between low- and middle-income smokers. Conclusions Increasing the incentive amount increased smoker’s perceptions of programmes. This relationship was curvilinear, meaning there may be a point beyond which further increasing the amount will not improve enrolment or motivation levels. Incentives appear equally appealing to low- and middle-income smokers; the population among whom smoking is most prevalent. Future research could explore other elements of programme design, and whether findings hold under real-world conditions. Implications While acknowledging that they work, policymakers frequently request information about the monetary amount needed for incentive programmes to be effective, and if this differs by income level. We investigated these questions using smokers’ perceptions of hypothetical cessation programmes which differed in the amount offered. An increasing quadratic trend in perceptions of programmes by the amount and potential cut-points were observed, suggesting a point may exist beyond which increasing the incentive will not improve perceptions of programmes or enrolment levels. High-income smokers may not perceive incentives to be as appealing as other income groups, but appear equally willing to enrol.

Análisis sobre la evolución del COVID-19 en Colombia: ¿se alcanzará el pico de contagio?

An analysis of the evolution of daily COVID-19 cases and number of deaths in Colombia and some Colombian cities is carried using official information reported by the Ministry of Health. This seeks to answer the following question: Considering the current trajectory of the new coronavirus, is it possible to estimate the future peak of infections? From the construction of a panel data structure, some models with a time quadratic trend are estimated for the number of infections and deaths logarithm. The estimation of such dynamics by the rolling window regression method shows a good fit, allowing to estimate the approximate date for the peak of the epidemic based on the new officially reported cases. Some factors associated with the progression of the pandemic are estimated, especially the effect of the speed of contagion (effective reproduction rate, Ro) on the future trajectory of daily infections. In addition, an attempt to estimate the impact of preventive social distancing measures adopted by national and regional authorities is performed. Results show that the peak of the pandemic in Colombia will be reached approximately at the end of August; finding that agrees with more elaborate epidemiological studies. The average number of new daily cases at the peak of the pandemic in Colombia would reach more than 10,000, while the maximum number of deaths would be 44,471. Estimates about the impact of confinement measures show that it is possible to delay the peak and reduce the number of infections and deaths.

Positive Lifestyle Behavior Changes Among Canadian Men: Findings From the HAT TRICK Program

Purpose: To estimate program effectiveness regarding physical activity (PA), diet, and social connectedness as part of a feasibility study. Design: Pre-post quasi-experimental. Setting: HAT TRICK was delivered in collaboration with a Canadian semi-professional ice hockey team and offered at the arena where they trained and played games. Participants: Participants (N = 62) at baseline were overweight (BMI >25kg/m2) and inactive (<150 minutes of MVPA/week) men age 35+ years. Intervention: Gender-sensitized 12-week intervention for men targeting PA, healthy eating and social connectedness. Method: Baseline, post-intervention (12 weeks) and 9-month follow-up self-report and accelerometer data were collected. Multi-level modeling assessed growth trajectories of outcome measures across time. Results: Accelerometer measured weekly/min. of moderate PA showed significant linear trends (95%CI: 42.9 – 175.3) from baseline (147.0 ± 104.6), 12-week (237.7 ± 135.5) and 9-month follow-up (204.89 ± 137.7) qualified with a quadratic trend. Self-reported weekly/min of moderate and vigorous PA showed significant linear trends (95%CI: 94.1, 264.1; 95%CI: 35.1, 109.6) from baseline (52.6 ± 83.8, 22.42 ± 44.9), 12 week (160.1 ± 157.4, 66.6 ± 74.4) and 9-month follow-up (118.6 ± 104.6, 52.2 ± 59.2) qualified with quadratic trends. DINE measured fat score rating showed linear trends over time (95%CI -14.24, -6.8), qualified with a quadratic trend. DINE fibre score and social connectedness showed no trends. Conclusion: Findings yield valuable information about the implementation of gender-sensitized lifestyle interventions for men and demonstrate the importance of male-specific strategies for reaching and engaging overweight, physically inactive men.

Age-Specific Acute Changes in Carotid–Femoral Pulse Wave Velocity With Head-up Tilt

BACKGROUND Aortic stiffness as measured by carotid–femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) is known to depend on blood pressure (BP), and this dependency may change with age. Therefore, the hydrostatic BP gradient resulting from a change in body posture may elicit a cfPWV change that is age-dependent. We aimed to analyze the relationship between BP gradient—induced by head-up body tilting—and related changes in cfPWV in individuals of varying age. METHODS cfPWV and other hemodynamic parameters were measured in 30 healthy individuals at a head-up tilt of 0° (supine), 30°, and 60°. At each angle, the PWV gradient and resulting cfPWV were also estimated (predicted) by assuming a global nonlinear, exponential, pressure–diameter relationship characterized by a constant β0, and taking into account that (diastolic) foot-to-foot cfPWV acutely depends on diastolic BP. RESULTS cfPWV significantly increased upon body tilting (8.0 ± 2.0 m/s supine, 9.1 ± 2.6 m/s at 30°, 9.5 ± 3.2 m/s at 60°, P for trend &lt;0.01); a positive trend was also observed for heart rate (HR; P &lt; 0.01). When the observed, tilt-induced cfPWV change measured by applanation tonometry was compared with that predicted from the estimated BP hydrostatic gradient, the difference in observed-vs.-predicted PWV change increased nonlinearly as a function of age (R2 for quadratic trend = 0.38, P &lt; 0.01, P vs. linear = 0.04). This result was unaffected by HR tilt-related variations (R2 for quadratic trend = 0.37, P &lt; 0.01, P vs. linear = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS Under a hydrostatic pressure gradient, the pulse wave traveling along the aorta undergoes an age-related, nonlinear PWV increase exceeding the increase predicted from BP dependency.