Plate motion drives variability in ocean oxygenation through the Phanerozoic

The early evolutionary and much of the extinction history of marine animals, is thought to be driven by changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations ([O2]) in the ocean1–3. In turn, [O2] is widely assumed to be dominated by the geological history of atmospheric oxygen (pO2)4,5. Here, in contrast, we show via a series of Earth system model experiments how continental rearrangement during the Phanerozoic drives profound variations in ocean oxygenation and induces a fundamental decoupling in time between upper-ocean and benthic [O2]. We further identify the presence of (paleogeographical) state-dependent modes of circulation instability (oscillations), which allows for pO2 to already be close to modern by the beginning of the Phanerozoic despite the deep ocean remaining anoxic. The occurrence of extreme volatility in ocean oxygenation also provides a causal mechanism explaining elevated rates of metazoan radiation and extinction during the early Paleozoic6. The absence in our modelling of any simple correlation between global climate and ocean ventilation together with the occurrence of profound variations in ocean oxygenation independent of atmospheric pO2, presents both a challenge to the interpretation of marine redox proxies, but also points to a hitherto unrecognized role for continental configuration in the evolution of the biosphere.

Ventilation of the Southern Ocean Pycnocline

Ocean ventilation is the transfer of tracers and young water from the surface down into the ocean interior. The tracers that can be transported to depth include anthropogenic heat and carbon, both of which are critical to understanding future climate trajectories. Ventilation occurs in both high- and midlatitude regions, but it is the southern midlatitudes that are responsible for the largest fraction of anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake; such Southern Ocean ventilation is the focus of this review. Southern Ocean ventilation occurs through a chain of interconnected mechanisms, including the zonally averaged meridional overturning circulation, localized subduction, eddy-driven mixing along isopycnals, and lateral transport by subtropical gyres. To unravel the complex pathways of ventilation and reconcile conflicting results, here we assess the relative contribution of each of these mechanisms, emphasizing the three-dimensional and temporally varying nature of the ventilation of the Southern Ocean pycnocline. We conclude that Southern Ocean ventilation depends on multiple processes and that simplified frameworks that explain ventilation changes through a single process are insufficient. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Surface atmospheric forcing as the driver of long-term pathways and timescales of ocean ventilation

The ocean takes up 93 % of the excess heat in the climate system and approximately a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon via air–sea fluxes. Ocean ventilation and subduction are key processes that regulate the transport of water (and associated properties) from the surface mixed layer, which is in contact with the atmosphere, to the ocean's interior, which is isolated from the atmosphere for a timescale set by the large-scale circulation. Utilising numerical simulations with an ocean–sea-ice model using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) framework, we assess where the ocean subducts water and, thus, takes up properties from the atmosphere; how ocean currents transport and redistribute these properties over time; and how, where, and when these properties are ventilated. Here, the strength and patterns of the net uptake of water and associated properties are analysed by including simulated seawater vintage dyes that are passive tracers released annually into the ocean surface layers between 1958 and 2017. The dyes' distribution is shown to capture years of strong and weak convection at deep and mode water formation sites in both hemispheres, especially when compared to observations in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Using this approach, relevant to any passive tracer in the ocean, we can evaluate the regional and depth distribution of the tracers, and determine their variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales. We highlight the key role of variations in the subduction rate driven by changes in surface atmospheric forcing in setting the different sizes of the long-term inventory of the dyes released in different years and the evolution of their distribution. This suggests forecasting potential for determining how the distribution of passive tracers will evolve, from having prior knowledge of mixed-layer properties, with implications for the uptake and storage of anthropogenic heat and carbon in the ocean.

A potential feedback loop underlying glacial-interglacial cycles

The sawtooth-patterned glacial-interglacial cycles in the Earth’s atmospheric temperature are a well-known, though poorly understood phenomenon. Pinpointing the relevant mechanisms behind these cycles will not only provide insights into past climate dynamics, but also help predict possible future responses of the Earth system to changing CO$$_2$$ 2 levels. Previous work on this phenomenon suggests that the most important underlying mechanisms are interactions between marine biological production, ocean circulation, temperature and dust. So far, interaction directions (i.e., what causes what) have remained elusive. In this paper, we apply Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) to analyze paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic records to elucidate which mechanisms proposed in the literature play an important role in glacial-interglacial cycles, and to test the directionality of interactions. We find causal links between ocean ventilation, biological productivity, benthic $$\delta ^{18}$$ δ 18 O and dust, consistent with some but not all of the mechanisms proposed in the literature. Most importantly, we find evidence for a potential feedback loop from ocean ventilation to biological productivity to climate back to ocean ventilation. Here, we propose the hypothesis that this feedback loop of connected mechanisms could be the main driver for the glacial-interglacial cycles.

Surface atmospheric forcing as the driver of long-term pathways and timescales of ocean ventilation

The ocean takes up 93 % of the excess heat in the climate system and approximately a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon via air-sea fluxes. Ocean ventilation and subduction are key processes that regulate the transport of water (and associated properties) from the surface mixed layer, which is in contact with the atmosphere, to the ocean's interior which is isolated from the atmosphere for a timescale set by the large-scale circulation. Using numerical simulations with an ocean-sea-ice model using the NEMO framework, we assess where the ocean subducts water and thus takes up properties from the atmosphere and how ocean currents transport and redistribute them over time and how, where and when they are ventilated. Here, the strength and patterns of the net uptake of water and associated properties are analysed by including simulated sea water vintage dyes that are passive tracers released annually into the ocean surface layers between 1958 and 2017. The dyes' distribution is shown to capture years of strong and weak convection at deep and mode water formation sites in both hemispheres, especially when compared to observations in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Using this approach, relevant to any passive tracer in the ocean, we can evaluate the regional and depth distribution of the tracers, and determine their variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales. We highlight the key role of variations in subduction rate driven by changes in surface atmospheric forcing in setting the different sizes of the long-term inventory of the dyes released in different years and the evolution of their distribution. This suggests forecasting potential for determining how the distribution of passive tracers will evolve, from having prior knowledge of the surface air-sea fluxes, with implications for the uptake and storage of anthropogenic heat and carbon in the ocean.

Multi-decadal changes in Southern Ocean ventilation since the 1960s driven by wind and buoyancy forcing

Enhanced Southern Ocean ventilation in recent decades has been suggested to be a relevant modulator of the observed changes in ocean heat and carbon uptake. This study focuses on the Southern Ocean mid-latitude ventilation changes from the 1960s to the 2010s. A global 1/4° configuration of the NEMO-LIM2 ocean sea-ice model including the inert tracer CFC-12 (a proxy of ocean ventilation) is forced with the CORE-II and JRA55-do atmospheric reanalyses. Sensitivity experiments, where the variability of wind stress and/or the buoyancy forcing is suppressed on interannual time scales, are used to unravel the mechanisms driving ventilation changes. Ventilation changes are estimated by comparing CFC-12 interior inventories among the different experiments. All simulations suggest a multi-decadal fluctuation of Southern Ocean ventilation, with a decrease until the 1980s-1990s and a subsequent increase. This evolution is related to the atmospheric forcing and is caused by the (often counteracting) effects of wind stress and buoyancy forcing. Until the 1980s increased buoyancy gains caused the ventilation decrease, whereas the subsequent ventilation increase was driven by strengthened wind stress causing deeper mixed layers and a stronger meridional overturning circulation. Wind stress emerges as the main driver of ventilation changes, even though buoyancy forcing modulates its trend and decadal variability. The three Southern Ocean basins take up CFC-12 in distinct density intervals but overall respond similarly to the atmospheric forcing. This study suggests that Southern Ocean ventilation is expected to increase as long as the effect of increasing Southern Hemisphere wind stress overwhelms that of increased stratification.