A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lock-down, Testing, and Tracing

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Alvarez ◽  
David Argente ◽  
Francesco Lippi
Keyword(s):  
Total Duration ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Welfare Gain ◽  
Antibody Testing ◽  
Study Test ◽  
Output Costs

We study the optimal lock-down for a planner who controls the fatalities of COVID-19 while minimizing the output costs of the lock-down. The policy prescribes a severe lock-down beginning a few weeks after the outbreak, covering almost 50 percent of the population after a month, with a total duration shy of 4 months. The intensity of the optimal lock-down depends on the gradient of the fatality rate with respect to the infected and the availability of antibody testing, which yields a welfare gain of 2 percent of GDP. We also study test-tracing-quarantine, which we show to be complementary to lock-down. (JEL E23, I12, I15, I18)

scholarly journals High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and adults in the Austrian ski resort of Ischgl

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludwig Knabl ◽  
Tanmay Mitra ◽  
Janine Kimpel ◽  
Annika Rössler ◽  
André Volland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Course ◽  
Epidemiologic Study ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Antibody Testing ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Ski Resort

Abstract Background In early March 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the ski resort Ischgl in Austria initiated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout Austria and Northern Europe. Methods Between April 21st and 27th 2020, a cross-sectional epidemiologic study targeting the full population of Ischgl (n = 1867), of which 79% could be included (n = 1473, incl. 214 children), was performed. For each individual, the study involved a SARS-CoV-2 PCR, antibody testing and structured questionnaires. A mathematical model was used to help understand the influence of the determined seroprevalence on virus transmission. Results The seroprevalence was 42.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39.8–44.7). Individuals under 18 showed a significantly lower seroprevalence of 27.1% (95% CI 21.3-33.6) than adults (45%; 95% CI 42.2–47.7; OR of 0.455, 95% CI 0.356–0.682, p < 0.001). Of the seropositive individuals, 83.7% had not been diagnosed to have had SARS-CoV-2 infection previously. The clinical course was generally mild. Over the previous two months, two COVID-19-related deaths had been recorded, corresponding to an infection fatality rate of 0.25% (95% CI 0.03–0.91). Only 8 (0.5 %) individuals were newly diagnosed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 during this study. Conclusions Ischgl was hit early and hard by SARS-CoV-2 leading to a high local seroprevalence of 42.4%, which was lower in individuals below the age of 18 than in adults. Mathematical modeling suggests that a drastic decline of newly infected individuals in Ischgl by the end of April occurred due to the dual impact from the non-pharmacological interventions and a high immunization of the Ischgl population.

scholarly journals Point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and infection fatality rate in Orleans and Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, May 9-15, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy K Feehan ◽  
Daniel Fort ◽  
Julia Garcia-Diaz ◽  
Eboni Price-Haywood ◽  
Cruz Velasco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Point Prevalence ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Antibody Testing ◽  
Racially Diverse ◽  
Recruitment Method ◽  
Weighted Prevalence

AbstractUsing a novel recruitment method to reduce selection bias with paired molecular and antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection, we determined point prevalence in a racially diverse municipality. Infections were highly variable by ZIP and differed by race. Overall census-weighted prevalence was 7.8% and the calculated infection fatality rate was 1.63%.

Phrase-Learning in Deaf and Hearing Subjects

1967 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 600-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Penelope B. Odom ◽  
Richard L. Blanton
Keyword(s):  
Word Order ◽  
Fifth Graders ◽  
English Word ◽  
Normal Hearing ◽  
Twelfth Graders ◽  
Memory Processes ◽  
Study Test ◽  
The Mean

Two groups each containing 24 deaf subjects were compared with 24 fifth graders and 24 twelfth graders with normal hearing on the learning of segments of written English. Eight subjects from each group learned phrasally defined segments such as “paid the tall lady,” eight more learned the same words in nonphrases having acceptable English word order such as “lady paid the tall,” and the remaining eight in each group learned the same words scrambled, “lady tall the paid.” The task consisted of 12 study-test trials. Analyses of the mean number of words recalled correctly and the probability of recalling the whole phrase correctly, given that one word of it was recalled, indicated that both ages of hearing subjects showed facilitation on the phrasally defined segments, interference on the scrambled segments. The deaf groups showed no differential recall as a function of phrasal structure. It was concluded that the deaf do not possess the same perceptual or memory processes with regard to English as do the hearing subjects.

Learning From (Test) Experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 228 (4) ◽  
pp. 264-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan E. Mitton ◽  
Chris M. Fiacconi
Keyword(s):  
Recognition Memory ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Memory Performance ◽  
Judgments Of Learning ◽  
Visual Images ◽  
Memory Tests ◽  
Recognition Memory Performance ◽  
Study Test ◽  
Explicit Feedback

Abstract. To date there has been relatively little research within the domain of metamemory that examines how individuals monitor their performance during memory tests, and whether the outcome of such monitoring informs subsequent memory predictions for novel items. In the current study, we sought to determine whether spontaneous monitoring of test performance can in fact help individuals better appreciate their memory abilities, and in turn shape future judgments of learning (JOLs). Specifically, in two experiments we examined recognition memory for visual images across three study-test cycles, each of which contained novel images. We found that across cycles, participants’ JOLs did in fact increase, reflecting metacognitive sensitivity to near-perfect levels of recognition memory performance. This finding suggests that individuals can and do monitor their test performance in the absence of explicit feedback, and further underscores the important role that test experience can play in shaping metacognitive evaluations of learning and remembering.

Fuzzy multi-objective decision making approach for nuclear power plant installation

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6339-6350
Author(s):  
Esra Çakır ◽  
Ziya Ulukan
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Multi Objective

Due to the increase in energy demand, many countries suffer from energy poverty because of insufficient and expensive energy supply. Plans to use alternative power like nuclear power for electricity generation are being revived among developing countries. Decisions for installation of power plants need to be based on careful assessment of future energy supply and demand, economic and financial implications and requirements for technology transfer. Since the problem involves many vague parameters, a fuzzy model should be an appropriate approach for dealing with this problem. This study develops a Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming (FMOLP) model for solving the nuclear power plant installation problem in fuzzy environment. FMOLP approach is recommended for cases where the objective functions are imprecise and can only be stated within a certain threshold level. The proposed model attempts to minimize total duration time, total cost and maximize the total crash time of the installation project. By using FMOLP, the weighted additive technique can also be applied in order to transform the model into Fuzzy Multiple Weighted-Objective Linear Programming (FMWOLP) to control the objective values such that all decision makers target on each criterion can be met. The optimum solution with the achievement level for both of the models (FMOLP and FMWOLP) are compared with each other. FMWOLP results in better performance as the overall degree of satisfaction depends on the weight given to the objective functions. A numerical example demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed models to nuclear power plant installation problem.

Experimentally increased costs of parental care are shunted to offspring in species with extended care

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gretchen F. Wagner ◽  
Emeline Mourocq ◽  
Michael Griesser
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Parental Care ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Life History Strategy ◽  
Experimental Treatment ◽  
Cost Of Care ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
Trade Offs

Biparental care systems are a valuable model to examine conflict, cooperation, and coordination between unrelated individuals, as the product of the interactions between the parents influences the fitness of both individuals. A common experimental technique for testing coordinated responses to changes in the costs of parental care is to temporarily handicap one parent, inducing a higher cost of providing care. However, dissimilarity in experimental designs of these studies has hindered interspecific comparisons of the patterns of cost distribution between parents and offspring. Here we apply a comparative experimental approach by handicapping a parent at nests of five bird species using the same experimental treatment. In some species, a decrease in care by a handicapped parent was compensated by its partner, while in others the increased costs of care were shunted to the offspring. Parental responses to an increased cost of care primarily depended on the total duration of care that offspring require. However, life history pace (i.e., adult survival and fecundity) did not influence parental decisions when faced with a higher cost of caring. Our study highlights that a greater attention to intergenerational trade-offs is warranted, particularly in species with a large burden of parental care. Moreover, we demonstrate that parental care decisions may be weighed more against physiological workload constraints than against future prospects of reproduction, supporting evidence that avian species may devote comparable amounts of energy into survival, regardless of life history strategy.

Pre-emptive Analgesia for Postoperative Pain Relief in Children – Role of Paracetamol

2009 ◽  
pp. 9-16
Author(s):  
Rubina Yasmin ◽  
AKM Akhtaruzzaman ◽  
Paresh Chandra Sarker ◽  
Neaz Ahmed ◽  
Ranadhir Kumar Kundu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Postoperative Pain ◽  
Diclofenac Sodium ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Pain Scale ◽  
Prospective Clinical Study ◽  
High Dose ◽  
Induction Of Anaesthesia

This prospective clinical study was carried out in the Dept. of Anaesthesia, Analgesia and Intensive Care Medicine, BSMMU, Dhaka, during the period of May 2003 to July 2003. The study was done to emphasize the importance of giving analgesics preemptively instead of waiting for the child to complain of pain and to produce smooth recovery after surgery by decreasing immediate postoperative pain in children by a simple, safe acceptable drug. The children scheduled for tonsillectomy under general anaesthesia were recruited in this study. The analgesic efficiency of rectal paracetamol in two doses, 25 mg/kg bodywt.(Gr-P25) and 50 mg/kg. bodywt. (Gr-P50) were compared with Diclofenac Sodium suppository 1mg/ kg body weight (Gr-D) given half an hour before induction of anaesthesia. Pain scoring was done by TPPPS (Toddler Pre-schooler postoperative pain scale). Heart rate and blood pressure were stable in Gr-P50 and Gr-D. Time of first demand of analgesic was delayed in Gr-P50 and Gr-D. Total paracetamol consumption in 24 hours was less in Gr-P50(181±14.25) and Gr-D (212±25) than Gr-P25(318± 26.39). Total duration of analgesia in Gr- P50 (657±9.94) mins. and in Gr- D(502±10.63) mins. and in Gr-P25(288±23.17) mins. Pre-emptive high dose rectal paracetamol appears to be more effective than diclofenac sodium suppository for postoperative analgesia in children undergoing tonsillectomy. Journal of BSA, Vol. 18, No. 1 & 2, 2005 p.9-16

ADHD is a Risk Factor of Road Crashes: A Purposive Study of Finding Relation between ADHD and Road Traffic Accident in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (08) ◽  
pp. 20531-20536
Author(s):  
Nusrat Shamima Nur ◽  
M. S. l. Mullick ◽  
Ahmed Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Crashes ◽  
Road Crash ◽  
Day By Day

Background: In Bangladesh fatality rate due to road traffic accidents is rising sharply day by day. At least 2297 people were killed and 5480 were injured in road traffic accidents within 1st six months of 2017.Whereas in the previous year at 2016 at least 1941 people were killed and 4794 were injured within the 1st six months. No survey has been reported in Bangladesh yet correlating ADHD as a reason of impulsive driving which ends up in a road crash.

INVESTIGATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GRAIN RECEIVING FROM RAILWAY TO THE GRAIN TRANSSHIPMENT TERMINAL

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-13
Author(s):  
G. Stankevych ◽  
L. Dmytrenko ◽  
A. Kats ◽  
V. Shpak
Keyword(s):  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Grain Quality ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Oil Crops ◽  
The Future ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Standard Values ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Sown Area

In the future, in Ukraine it is planned to increase the sown area for cereals, legumes and oilseeds, to increase the gross grain harvest to 80 million tons, and its export abroad was increased twice. Intensive construction in the southern ports of Ukraine of grain transshipment terminals with large metal silos will solve the problem of increasing grain export in the future. At these powerful terminals, the bulk of the grain comes mainly by rail, and is shipped to water. The aim of the work was to study the characteristics of the grain receiving from railway transport to the grain transshipment terminal of LLC “Ukrelevatorprom” in order to improve its works efficiency. The object of the study was the development of technology of grain receiving at the grain transshipment terminal; the subject of research is cereals, legume sand oil crops, as well as data from daily volumes of receiving and dispensing operations at the grain transshipment terminal of LLC “Ukrelevatorprom” for 2015-2016. The studies were carried out on the basis of processing data from the consignment notes for 2015-2016, according to which there was a summed amount of grain (net) daily transported by the railway. Further processing of the obtained data was carried out by a combined graphoanalytical method, for which, on the basis of tabular values for each studied year, the corresponding histograms and graphs were built and the necessary indicators were determined. Analysis of the structure of grain crops supplied by railway to LLC “Ukrelevatorprom” in 2015 and 2016 and their ratio showed that the main share was occupied by cereal crops (78.0 % and 73.1 % respectively), which were mainly represented by corn, share which was significantly dominated by other crops (wheat of various classes and barley) and amounted to 45.8 % and 44.5 %, respectively, which can be explained by its high demand in the international grain market, in which Ukraine occupies a leading position. Oilseeds (rapeseed) were taken in accordance with 19.1 % and 14.9 %, and legumes (soybeans) — 2.9 % and 12.0 %. An analysis of the timing of the unloading of grain wagons (hopper cars) showed that the total duration of this process, depending on the crops, averages 37...59 minutes. The longest steps for unloading wagons are to determine the grain quality indicators, especially rapeseed, and to spill grain from the wagons, therefore, to reduce their duration, it is necessary to form feeds of wagons with grain batches of the same quality and use more modern express analyzers to determine grain quality indicators, which will increase the productivity of the grain receiving line from the railway. According to the research results, the enterprise has the potential to increase by about 30 % the volume of grain intake. It was established that the periods of the grain receipt at the enterprise in 2015-2016 amounted to 349 and 353 days, respectively, the actual coefficients of the daily irregularity Kdaily for the grain receipt from the railway in these years are equal to 1.47 and 1.52, and the monthly irregularity Kmonth, respectively 1.33 and 1.21, does not exceed the standard values Kdaily = 2.5 and Kmonth= 2.0. This made it possible to clarify the database from the actual characteristics of the process of grain receiving by railway and can be used in design and verification calculations of equipment in technological lines for receiving grain from railway transport, and will contribute to increasing the efficiency of grain transshipment terminals. 

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