Estimation of Boreal Forest Growing Stock Volume in Russia from Sentinel-2 MSI and Land Cover Classification

Growing stock volume (GSV) is a fundamental parameter of forests, closely related to the above-ground biomass and hence to carbon storage. Estimation of GSV at regional to global scales depends on the use of satellite remote sensing data, although accuracies are generally lower over the sparse boreal forest. This is especially true of boreal forest in Russia, for which knowledge of GSV is currently poor despite its global importance. Here we develop a new empirical method in which the primary remote sensing data source is a single summer Sentinel-2 MSI image, augmented by land-cover classification based on the same MSI image trained using MODIS-derived data. In our work the method is calibrated and validated using an extensive set of field measurements from two contrasting regions of the Russian arctic. Results show that GSV can be estimated with an RMS uncertainty of approximately 35–55%, comparable to other spaceborne estimates of low-GSV forest areas, with 70% spatial correspondence between our GSV maps and existing products derived from MODIS data. Our empirical approach requires somewhat laborious data collection when used for upscaling from field data, but could also be used to downscale global data.

Using hypertemporal Sentinel-1 data to predict forest growing stock volume

In this study, we assess the potential of long time series of Sentinel-1 SAR data to predict forest growing stock volume and evaluate the temporal dynamics of the predictions. The boreal coniferous forests study site is located near the Hyytiälä forest station in central Finland and covers an area of 2,500 km2 with nearly 17,000 stands. We considered several prediction approaches (linear, support vector and random forests regression) and fine-tuned them to predict growing stock volume in several evaluation scenarios. The analyses used 96 Sentinel-1 images acquired over three years. Different approaches for aggregating SAR images and choosing feature (predictor) variables were evaluated. Our results demonstrate considerable decrease in RMSEs of growing stock volume as the number of images increases. While prediction accuracy using individual Sentinel-1 images varied from 85 to 91 m3/ha RMSE (relative RMSE 50-53%), RMSE with combined images decreased to 75.6 m3/ha (relative RMSE 44%). Feature extraction and dimension reduction techniques facilitated achieving the near-optimal prediction accuracy using only 8-10 images. When using assemblages of eight consecutive images, the GSV was predicted with the greatest accuracy when initial acquisitions started between September and January.HighlightsTime series of 96 Sentinel-1 images is analysed over study area with 17,762 forest stands.Rigorous evaluation of tools for SAR feature selection and GSV prediction.Improved periodic seasonality using assemblages of consecutive Sentinel-1 images.Analysis of combining images acquired in “frozen” and “dry summer” conditions.Competitive estimates using calculation of prediction errors with stand-area weighting.

Coniferous Plantations Growing Stock Volume Estimation Using Advanced Remote Sensing Algorithms and Various Fused Data

Spatial distribution prediction of growing stock volume (GSV) for supporting the sustainable management of forest ecosystems, is one of the most widespread applications of remote sensing. For this purpose, remote sensing data were used as predictor variables in combination with ground data obtained from field sample plots. However, with the increase in forest GSV values, the spectral reflectance of remote sensing imagery is often saturated or less sensitive to the GSV changes, making accurate estimation difficult. To improve this, we examined the GSV estimation performance and data saturation of four optical remote sensing image datasets (Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, ZiYuan-3, and GaoFen-2) in the subtropical region of Central South China. First, various feature variables were extracted and three optimization methods were used to select optimal feature variable combinations. Subsequently, k-nearest-neighbor (kNN), random forest regression, and categorical boosting algorithms were employed to build the GSV estimation models, and evaluate the GSV estimation accuracy and saturation. Second, Gram Schmidt (GS) and NNDiffuse pan sharpening (NND) methods were employed to fuse the optimal multispectral images and explore various image fusion schemes suitable for GSV estimation. We proposed an adaptive stacking (AdaStacking) model ensemble algorithm to further improve GSV estimation performance. The results indicated that Sentinel-2 had the highest GSV estimation accuracy exhibiting a minimum relative root mean square error of 20.06% and saturation of 434 m3/ha, followed by GaoFen-2 with a minimum relative root mean square error of 22.16% and a saturation of 409 m3/ha. Among the four fusion images, the NND-B2 image—obtained by fusing the GaoFen-2 green band and Sentinel-2 multispectral image with the NND method—had the best estimation accuracy. The estimated optimal RMSEs of NND-B2 were 24.4% and 16.5% lower than those of GaoFen-2 and Sentinel-2, respectively. Therefore, the fused image data based on GF-2 and Sentinel-2 can effectively couple the advantages of the two images and significantly improve the GSV estimation performance. Moreover, the proposed adaptive stacking model is more effective in GSV estimation than a single model. The GSV estimation saturation value of the AdaStacking model based on NND-B2 was 5.4% higher than that of the KNN-Maha model. The GSV distribution map estimated by AdaStacking model used the NND-B2 dataset corresponded accurately with the field observations. This study provides some insights into the optical image fusion scheme, feature selection, and adaptive modeling algorithm in GSV estimation for coniferous forest.

Volatility of LQ45 Index Situation Before and After Eid al-Fitr

Many factors influence the movement of stocks on the capital market, one of which is a major event that occurs at a certain time, such as religious holiday event. This study aims to examine whether or not there is a change in the level of stock volume movement and abnormal return of stocks affected by the religious holiday event, namely Eid al-Fitr, thus affecting transactions in the capital market. The variable studied is the volume of shares that gives an idea of the number of outstanding shares traded every day and the abnormal variable return of shares is the difference between the actual return that occurs with the return of expectations. Both variables can provide information that is expected to help investors manage investment strategies at major events such as Eid al-Fitr. The data used is secondary data from the www.investing.com sites from 2013 to 2019, namely 15 days before and 15 days after Eid al-Fitr. The method used is Wilcoxon Signed Ranks test because it turns out that the processed data is not distributed normally after being tested for normality. The results of this study prove that there is no difference in the abnormal level of return of shares before and after Eid al-Fitr, and proves the hypothesis that there is a change in stock volume before and after the Eid al-Fitr event.

Growing Stock Volume Retrieval from Single and Multi-Frequency Radar Backscatter

While products generated at global levels provide easy access to information on forest growing stock volume (GSV), their use at regional to national levels is limited by temporal frequency, spatial resolution, or unknown local errors that may be overcome through locally calibrated products. This study assessed the need, and utility, of developing locally calibrated GSV products for the Romanian forests. To this end, we used national forest inventory (NFI) permanent sampling plots with largely concurrent SAR datasets acquired at C- and L-bands to train and validate a machine learning algorithm. Different configurations of independent variables were evaluated to assess potential synergies between C- and L-band. The results show that GSV estimation errors at C- and L-band were rather similar, relative root mean squared errors (RelRMSE) around 55% for forests averaging over 450 m3 ha−1, while synergies between the two wavelengths were limited. Locally calibrated models improved GSV estimation by 14% when compared to values obtained from global datasets. However, even the locally calibrated models showed particularly large errors over low GSV intervals. Aggregating the results over larger areas considerably reduced (down to 25%) the relative estimation errors.

Scenarios of environmental change in a post-conflict Colombia

Colombia is a notorious biodiversity hotspot that came to the spotlight of conservation upon the signing of the peace agreement in 2016. Here we used a counterfactual approach to forecast by 2036 the impact of deforestation on Colombia’s biodiversity and carbon stocks under three scenarios: (1) pre-signing of the peace agreement, (2) post-signing and (3) business-as-usual. We found that if deforestation rates continued at the same pace of post-signing, up to 41,000 km2 of forest area may be lost by 2036, whereas pre-signing rates would save nearly 25,000 km2 (equivalent to the total forest loss observed between 2000 and 2018). Under the pre-signing scenario, between 2018-2036 Colombia would reduce the average impact on the range of forest-specific species by nearly 50% of habitat area relative to 2000-2018, whereas under the post-signing scenario, it would increase by 33%. Moreover, losses of 312-807 Mm3 of growing stock volume and 267-688 Mt of aboveground biomass were projected by 2036, jeopardizing the country’s commitments towards international conservation as well as climate targets. Importantly, we found a mismatch at the department level on biodiversity and biomass losses, which highlight an urgent need to generate coherent policies at a national level aiming to tackle both issues.

Modelling growing stock volume of forest stands with various ALS area-based approaches

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) is one of the most innovative remote sensing tools with a recognized important utility for characterizing forest stands. Currently, the most common ALS-based method applied in the estimation of forest stand characteristics is the area-based approach (ABA). The aim of this study was to analyse how three ABA methods affect growing stock volume (GSV) estimates at the sample plot and forest stand levels. We examined (1) an ABA with point cloud metrics, (2) an ABA with canopy height model (CHM) metrics and (3) an ABA with aggregated individual tree CHM-based metrics. What is more, three different modelling techniques: multiple linear regression, boosted regression trees and random forest, were applied to all ABA methods, which yielded a total of nine combinations to report. An important element of this work is also the empirical verification of the methods for estimating the GSV error for individual forest stand. All nine combinations of the ABA methods and different modelling techniques yielded very similar predictions of GSV for both sample plots and forest stands. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of estimated GSV ranged from 75 to 85 m3 ha−1 (RMSE% = 20.5–23.4 per cent) and from 57 to 64 m3 ha−1 (RMSE% = 16.4–18.3 per cent) for plots and stands, respectively. As a result of the research, it can be concluded that GSV modelling with the use of different ALS processing approaches and statistical methods leads to very similar results. Therefore, the choice of a GSV prediction method may be more determined by the availability of data and competences than by the requirement to use a particular method.

The Effect of Forest Mask Quality in the Wall-to-Wall Estimation of Growing Stock Volume

Information about forest cover and its characteristics are essential in national and international forest inventories, monitoring programs, and reporting activities. Two of the most common forest variables needed to support sustainable forest management practices are forest cover area and growing stock volume (GSV m3 ha−1). Nowadays, national forest inventories (NFI) are complemented by wall-to-wall maps of forest variables which rely on models and auxiliary data. The spatially explicit prediction of GSV is useful for small-scale estimation by aggregating individual pixel predictions in a model-assisted framework. Spatial knowledge of the area of forest land is an essential prerequisite. This information is contained in a forest mask (FM). The number of FMs is increasing exponentially thanks to the wide availability of free auxiliary data, creating doubts about which is best-suited for specific purposes such as forest area and GSV estimation. We compared five FMs available for the entire area of Italy to examine their effects on the estimation of GSV and to clarify which product is best-suited for this purpose. The FMs considered were a mosaic of local forest maps produced by the Italian regional forest authorities; the FM produced from the Copernicus Land Monitoring System; the JAXA global FM; the hybrid global FM produced by Schepaschencko et al., and the FM estimated from the Corine Land Cover 2006. We used the five FMs to mask out non-forest pixels from a national wall-to-wall GSV map constructed using inventory and remotely sensed data. The accuracies of the FMs were first evaluated against an independent dataset of 1,202,818 NFI plots using four accuracy metrics. For each of the five masked GSV maps, the pixel-level predictions for the masked GSV map were used to calculate national and regional-level model-assisted estimates. The masked GSV maps were compared with respect to the coefficient of correlation (ρ) between the estimates of GSV they produced (both in terms of mean and total of GSV predictions within the national and regional boundaries) and the official NFI estimates. At the national and regional levels, the model-assisted GSV estimates based on the GSV map masked by the FM constructed as a mosaic of local forest maps were closest to the official NFI estimates with ρ = 0.986 and ρ = 0.972, for total and mean GSV, respectively. We found a negative correlation between the accuracies of the FMs and the differences between the model-assisted GSV estimates and the NFI estimate, demonstrating that the choice of the FM plays an important role in GSV estimation when using the model-assisted estimator.