ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CRISIS ON THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF BUSINESS IN UKRAINE

The article analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business activities in Ukraine and the world and its financial security. The analysis showed that the economy of Ukraine, like most countries in the world, has suffered significant losses from the introduction of anti-epidemic restrictions on business activities, which manifested itself in falling GDP, industrial production index, investment activity. Due to the temporary or complete cessation of business, the unemployment rate has increased significantly. The pandemic crisis also harmed enterprises' financial results, which declined significantly in all economic activities, especially in industry, transport, temporary accommodation, and catering, where the share of unprofitable enterprises reaches 73%. Thus, the problem of ensuring the financial security of business becomes relevant. The work aims to develop methodological approaches to assessing the impact of the pandemic crisis on businesses' financial security and to identify effective ways to ensure such security. The research used scientific abstraction, comparative and systematic analysis and synthesis, systematization, and logical generalization. It was determined that small and medium-sized businesses were most affected by the pandemic, where more than 60% of entrepreneurs had a strong negative impact. Large businesses suffered less, but they also suffered significant losses due to declining business activity and demand in domestic and foreign markets. The pandemic had the least impact on agriculture, which suffered the least losses, primarily due to the slight impact of restrictions on this business's activities. The paper systematized the risks arising from the pandemic crisis factors and identified their manifestations and financial consequences for the business. Studies have shown that such effects manifest themselves in the form of total or partial loss of profits, problems with debt repayment, reduced financial stability, liquidity, increased receivables, increased costs of anti-epidemic measures, and so on. Thus, the procedure for assessing the business's financial security is to take into account all the factors that shape the financial position of businesses during a pandemic crisis.

Predicting the SP500 Index Trend Based on GBDT and LightGBM Methods

Algorithms that are previously difficult to implement have been successfully applied in different fields because of hardware development. Quantitative investment has the characteristics of rationality and efficiency and has obvious advantages over traditional methods. Based on the SP500 index data for 4936 trading days, 10 characteristics such as PSY, MACD, STOCHK and STOCHD were generated. Based on those features, quantitative investment strategies for the GBDT and LightGBM models were constructed. Validation showed that the annualized returns of the two strategies exceeded the direct purchase and holding of the SP500 index, with the annualized returns of 43.4% and 50.7%. The performance of risk control of the two models was also better than the benchmark strategy. The GBDT model had less risk than the LightGBM model when the same benefits were obtained. The accuracy of the LightGBM model was higher than that of the GBDT, and its F1 score was 0.814, while the GBDT model was 0.805. For the different selected components, the results of the principal component analysis showed that the PSY feature weight in the GBDT model was much higher than other features, and a single feature can be applied for straightforward prediction. In the LightGBM model, the seven feature weights such as STOCHK were relatively balanced, and more features can be balanced at the same time to obtain more accurate results. The article designs investment strategies based on the LightGBM model for the first time and provides new ideas for providing a framework for index investment.

Sustained investment surges

Existing empirical studies have mainly focused on determinants of average investment levels. Instead, we investigate episodes of accelerated capital stock growth having a duration of eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low-growth regions, but more so in middle-income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 episodes between 1950 and 2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by macroeconomic stability, real exchange rate undervaluation, and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges tend to be associated with changes in the trade balance and, to a (statistically) weaker extent, with structural change.

Keputusan Investasi Perbankan Nasional Pada Sukuk International Islamic Liquidity Management (IILM)

This study aims to analyze the investment decision of banks and measures their investment preferences in IILM sukuk with IILM sukuk preference index. The investment decision is investigated from several factors, such as the structure of IILM sukuk, the currency used in the transaction IILM sukuk, tenors of IILM sukuk,covenants used in the transaction, marketability of IILM sukuk and IILM sukuk rating. This study also attempts to inform the features that can attract banks to invest in IILM sukuk. This study used quantitative method to calculate the index of banking investment decision on IILM sukuk. The result of this research explains that the index of banking investment decisions includes in the high category. The index investment decisions show a high index, but up to now banks have not invested in IILM sukuk. This needs in-depth education and socialization to banks related to IILM sukuk, and providing periodic information is really essential, so banks can get the latest information about IILM sukuk. Another factor that restrictsbank investment in sukuk IILM is internal bank policies. Until now, banks still manage their funds by using investment instruments issued by the state or domestic sukuk. The recommendations for sukuk is related to IILM first appointment of primary dealers, and the institutions are expected to appoint IILM primary dealers located in Indonesia in order to facilitate buying and selling transactions of IILM sukuk. Furthermore, the selection of IILM tenor sukuk is expected to have miraculous tenor selection to meet the needs of banks. Further provision of rating is expected to not only IILM sukuk but also the standardized IILM institution to create more reliable institutions that are able to add the investors.

Volatility Spillovers Arising from the Financialization of Commodities

This paper examines whether the proliferation of new index products, such as commodity-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs), amplified the volatility transmission channel introduced by financialization. This paper focuses on the volatility spillover effects among crude oil, metals, agriculture, and non-energy commodity markets. The results show financialization has an impact on the volatility of commodity prices, predominantly for non-energy commodities. However, the impact on volatility is not symmetric across all commodities. The analysis of index investment and investors’ positions in futures markets shows that, when a relationship exists, it is generally negatively correlated with the realized volatility of non-energy commodities. Using realized volatility in the difference-in-difference model provides estimates that are inconsistent with other findings that non-energy commodities, traded as a part of indices, have experienced higher volatility. The results are similar to the index investment and futures market analysis, where increased participation by investors through new investment products has put download pressure on realized volatility.

Analysis Of Comparison The Composite Stock Price Index Before And After Increasing The Investment Grade At Indonesia Stock Exchange

Capital markets are economic entities that have a large influence on economic growth. The capital market is one of the containers of transactions in carrying out economic functions for a country. The growing capital market has caused investors to focus on investing in the Indonesian capital market, especially in the business community. The term investment grade refers to a rating that refers to government or corporate debt, has a low ralative ratio of default or default so that it has a sustainable level of trust in the long term he increase in Indonesia's Investment Grade rating is expected to have a positive impact on the Composite Stock Price Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange which will attract investors to transact in the Indonesian capital market. Based on the results of the research and discussion that has been carried out in the previous chapter, it can be concluded that there are significant differences in the Composite Stock Price Index 30 days before and 30 days after the Investment Grade rating rises on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Keywords: Composite Stock Price Index, Investment Grade

Index Providers in the Global Financial Market

Index providers are important participants of the contemporary global financial market. This group comprises of diverse entities – e.g. stock exchanges, financial institutions (particularly banks and asset management companies), analytical and research companies as well as financial data providers. The role of index providers increases primarily along with systematically growing importance of index investment instruments. Their decisions significantly affect the allocation of capital, mainly on a microeconomic and macroeconomic scale.

Equities and Commodities Comovements: Evidence from Emerging Markets

The financialization of commodities and their inclusion in financial portfolios as part of an investment strategy may result in higher correlations and volatility spillovers between commodity and equity markets. In this paper, we estimate the correlation between equity markets and commodities using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, while emphasizing the differences between emerging and developed markets co-movements with commodities. The results reveal that certain emerging markets, especially those in Asia, show a much lower level of co-movement with commodities than developed markets do, while Latin American equities exhibit a higher level of integration with commodities. Furthermore, it is found that both agricultural and precious metals commodities offer better diversification possibilities in the less developed markets. We also find that increases in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) are related to higher agriculture commodities-equities correlations, while commodity net index investment has limited explanatory power in our study.