Rationalization of the Pattern of Rural Out Migration: An Application of a Composite and In ated Probability Models

Migration is a term that encompasses a permanent or temporary change in residence between some specific defined geographical or political areas. In recent years, it has not only contributed a lot to the change in size and composition of the population, but also it leaves a significant impact on the socio-economic characteristics of the origin and destination population. In the present paper an attempt has been made to examine the distribution of the number of rural out migrants from household through composite probability models based on certain assumptions. Poisson distribution compounded with exponential distribution and its composite and in ated form has been examined for some real data set of rural out migration. The parameters of the proposed models have been estimated by method of moments. The distributions are quite satisfactory to explain the phenomenon of rural out migration. Also the distribution of average number of adult migrants has been examined for all the data sets.

Simulation of a thin long rod that does not have critical forces and does not lose stability to Euler

The paper proposes a method of preventing the loss of Euler stability by thin rods. Such rods do not have critical forces and therefore do not lose stability from longitudinal compressive force. The method is based on a temporary change in the stiffness of the rod-support system, in particular, a change in the length of the rod between the supports when approaching the value of critical forces, and after passing the return to the previous value. The results of simulation modeling of the rod behavior are presented, which confirm the possibility to eliminate the loss of its stability with increasing compressive force to the maximum allowable value, which is determined from the condition of strength.

The transforming of an online, distance-learning masters of nature science

For a number of reasons, in particular the introduction of urgent quarantine measures, a temporary change is taking place in the format of full-time studies on distance learning. This requires a quick reorientation of the teacher and students to use educational solutions to provide remote access to teaching material. The article studies the requirements for building a distance course in order to quickly adapt full-time education to distance learning. The features of the organization of distance STEM education are determined. The pedagogical and technological aspects of supporting distance learning STEM are established. The problems that may arise during the organization of distance learning are analyzed and models for overcoming them are considered. An example of constructing a course in accordance with established requirements is given.

The Impact of Outliers on Parameter Estimation Method for Bilinear Model

Nonlinear least squares (NLS) method along with Newton-Raphson (NR) iterative procedure is the best method to estimate parameters for bilinear model. However, the existence of outliers will affect the estimated value of the parameter and its validity can be doubtful. This statement was proven by conducting simulation analysis for the bilinear model, especially on bilinear (1,0,1,1) model without and with the existence of additive outlier (AO), innovational outlier (IO), temporary change (TC) and level change (LC) in the data. The performance of the NLS method is measured in terms of bias. Numerical results show that, in general, the NLS method performs better in estimating the parameters without the existence of AO, IO, TC or LC in the data. Keywords: bilinear model; nonlinear least squares; Newton-Raphson; additive outlier; innovational outlier; temporary change; level change

I Don’t Know how to Talk about These Wor(l)ds, but I Do Walk, I Shoot, and I Write: Autoethnographic Written and Visual Cures for a Fragmented Identity

In this article, I examine how my unprogrammatized and spontaneous informal fieldwork in Athens, undertaken in a rather unconsciously autoethnographic vein, has helped me while on the process of investigating my personal identity. My temporary change of academic direction and my delving into the ocean of fieldwork have shaped and answered my endless quest for important answers about a researcher’s own self. Through the use of written text, photography and other visual indexes, “thin” and “thick” description, I argue that autoethnography as a method could be a healing process, providing therapy for a researcher’s “fragmented” heart and identity.

What Has Changed

This chapter shows the impact that the narrower bank culture debate has had on life in the banks of Anglo-America. Using interview material and a range of official reports the chapter shows changes to risk-taking, performance-monitoring, compliance, and pay. It shows that culture and values certainly became central features in the rhetoric of the banks. But tangible, conduct-related improvements were also evident. Risk-taking was moderated, even though this may have just been a temporary change. New compliance monitoring measures certainly made the work environment more challenging for employees, and promoted a more cautious culture.

Biofluorescent Worlds – II. Biological fluorescence induced by stellar UV flares, a new temporal biosignature

ABSTRACT Our first targets in the search for signs of life are orbiting nearby M stars, such as the planets in the Proxima Centauri, Ross-128, LHS-1140, and TRAPPIST-1 systems. Future ground-based discoveries, and those from the TESS mission, will provide additional close-by targets. However, young M stars tend to be very active, flaring frequently and causing UV fluxes on the surfaces of HZ planets to become biologically harmful. Common UV-protection methods used by life (e.g. living underground, or underwater) would make a biosphere harder to detect. However, photoprotective biofluorescence, ‘up-shifting’ UV to longer, safer wavelengths, could increase a biosphere's detectability. Here we model intermittent emission at specific wavelengths in the visible spectrum caused by biofluorescence as a new temporal biosignature for planets around active M stars. We use the absorption and emission characteristics of common coral fluorescent pigments and proteins to create model spectra and colours for an Earth-like planet in such a system, accounting for different surface features, atmospheric absorption, and cloud cover. We find that for a cloud-free planet biofluorescence could induce a temporary change in brightness that is significantly higher than the reflected flux alone, causing up to two orders-of-magnitude change in planet–star contrast, compared to a non-fluorescent state, if the surface is fully covered by a highly efficient fluorescent biosphere. Hence, UV-flare induced biofluorescence presents previously unexplored possibilities for a new temporal biosignature that could be detectable by instruments like those planned for the extremely large telescope and could reveal hidden biospheres.

The Effect of Temporary Changes and Expectations on Individuals' Decisions: Evidence from a Tax Compliance Setting

ABSTRACT Based on prospect theory's value function, we predict how reference points adapt to influence individuals' tax evasion choices during and after experiencing temporary tax changes. Results from a multi-round experiment indicate reactions to temporary changes depend jointly on the direction of the change and expectations. Specifically, individuals experiencing a tax increase evade more while the increase is in effect. More interestingly, knowing, versus not knowing, a tax decrease is temporary prevents an increase in evasion after the temporary change expires, and may lead individuals to reduce evasion during the change. In a supplemental condition, we induce uncertainty by repeatedly extending a tax decrease. We find when uncertainty is introduced, both benefits of knowing the temporal nature of the decrease are lost. Overall results are consistent with individuals failing to adapt to a loss state and adapting quickly to a gain state unless they are certain the gain state is temporary.

Uncharacteristic foreign policy behavior: Sharon’s decision to withdraw from Gaza

When leaders depart from their long-held, publicly known policy positions, one possible explanation is changes in their personality. This paper inquires about one example: Ariel Sharon’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Middle East observers long believed that Sharon was one of the last Israelis to cede any territory to Palestinians; alas, that became the decision to mark Sharon’s reign as prime minister. The “bulldozer” decided to evacuate the homes he had built. Assuming that Gaza disengagement implied a significant reassessment of Sharon’s previously held policy preferences, this paper asks if Sharon changed. Using leadership trait analysis, the paper develops two profiles of Sharon, before and during his premiership. Sharon is then profiled in three phases during his tenure: first term, second term until the announcement of disengagement, and until the end of his tenure. In making his decision, Sharon temporarily became a complex thinker, yet did not change in his distrust or develop empathy to the Palestinians. The findings suggest that leaders can experience a fundamental but temporary change to implement radically different decisions, and confirm that leaders’ traits are stable over time.