Space-Time Covid-19 Bayesian SIR modeling in South Carolina

The Covid-19 pandemic has spread across the world since the beginning of 2020. Many regions have experienced its effects. The state of South Carolina in the USA has seen cases since early March 2020 and a primary peak in early April 2020. A lockdown was imposed on April 6th but lifting of restrictions started on April 24th. The daily case and death data as reported by NCHS (deaths) via the New York Times GitHUB repository have been analyzed and approaches to modeling of the data are presented. Prediction is also considered and the role of asymptomatic transmission is assessed as a latent unobserved effect. Two different time periods are examined and one step prediction is provided.

Vestibular modulation of muscle sympathetic nerve activity assessed over a 100-fold frequency range of sinusoidal galvanic vestibular stimulation

We have previously shown that sinusoidal galvanic vestibular stimulation (sGVS), delivered at 0.2–2.0 Hz, evokes a partial entrainment of muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA). Moreover, at lower frequencies of stimulation (0.08–0.18 Hz) sGVS produces two peaks of modulation: one (primary) peak associated with the positive peak of the sinusoidal stimulus and a smaller (secondary) peak associated with the trough. Here we assessed whether sGVS delivered at 0.05 Hz causes a more marked modulation of MSNA than at higher frequencies and tested the hypothesis that the primary and secondary peaks are of identical amplitude because of the longer cycle length. MSNA was recorded via tungsten microelectrodes inserted into the left peroneal nerve in 11 seated subjects. Bipolar binaural sGVS (±2 mA, 100 cycles) was applied to the mastoid processes at 0.05, 0.5, and 5.0 Hz (500 cycles). Cross-correlation analysis revealed two bursts of modulation of MSNA for each cycle at 0.05 and 0.5 Hz but only one at 5 Hz. There was a significant inverse linear relationship between vestibular modulation (primary peak) and frequency ( P < 0.0001), with the amplitudes of the peaks being highest at 0.05 Hz. Moreover, the secondary peak at this frequency was not significantly different from the primary peak. These results indicate that vestibular modulation of MSNA operates over a large range of frequencies but is greater at lower frequencies of sGVS. We conclude that the vestibular apparatus, through its influence on muscle sympathetic outflow, preferentially contributes to the control of blood pressure at low frequencies. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Vestibulosympathetic reflexes have been documented in experimental animals and humans. Here we show that sinusoidal galvanic vestibular stimulation, a means of selectively exciting vestibular afferents in humans, induces greater modulation of muscle sympathetic nerve activity when delivered at a very low frequency (0.05 Hz) than at 0.5 or 5.0 Hz.

Momentum Flux of Convective Gravity Waves Derived from an Offline Gravity Wave Parameterization. Part I: Spatiotemporal Variations at Source Level

Spatiotemporal variations in momentum flux spectra of convective gravity waves (CGWs) at the source level (cloud top), including nonlinear forcing effects, are examined based on calculations using an offline version of CGW parameterization and global reanalysis data for a period of 32 years (1979–2010). The cloud-top momentum flux (CTMF) is not solely proportional to the convective heating rate but is affected by the wave-filtering and resonance factor and background stability and temperature underlying the convection. Consequently, the primary peak of CTMF is in the winter hemisphere midlatitudes, associated with storm tracks, where a secondary peak of convective heating exists, whereas the secondary peak of CTMF appears in the summer hemisphere tropics and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where the primary peak of convective heating exists. The magnitude of CTMF fluctuates largely with 1-yr and 1-day periods in major CTMF regions. At low latitudes and Pacific storm-track regions, a 6-month period is also significant, and the decadal cycle appears in the southern Andes. The equatorial eastern Pacific region exhibits a substantial interannual to decadal scale of variabilities. The correlation between convective heating and the CTMF is relatively lower in the equatorial region than in other regions. The CTMF in 10°N–10°S during the period of the pre-Concordiasi campaign approximately follows a lognormal distribution but with a slight underestimation in the tail of the probability density function. In Part II, the momentum flux and drag of CGW in the stratosphere will be examined.

Correlation between the characteristics of resonance and aging of the external ear

PURPOSE: Aging causes changes in the external ear as a collapse of the external auditory canal and tympanic membrane senile. Knowing them is appropriate for the diagnosis of hearing loss and selection of hearing aids. For this reason, the study aimed to verify the influence of the anatomical changes of the external ear resonance in the auditory canal in the elderly. METHODS: The sample consisted of objective measures of the external ear of elderly with collapse (group A), senile tympanic membrane (group B) and without changing the external auditory canal or tympanic membrane (group C) and adults without changing the external ear (group D). In the retrospective/clinical study were performed comparisons of measures of individuals with and without alteration of the external ear through the gain and response external ear resonant frequency and the primary peak to the right ear. RESULTS: In groups A, B and C was no statistically significant difference between Real Ear Unaided Response (REUR) and Real Ear Unaided Gain (REUG), but not for the peak frequency. For groups A and B were shown significant differences in REUR and REUG. Between the C and D groups were significant statistics to the REUR and REUG, but not for the frequency of the primary peak. CONCLUSION: Changes influence the external ear resonance, decreasing its amplitude. However, the frequency of the primary peak is not affected

Evidence for four- and three-wave interactions in solar type III radio emissions

The high time resolution observations obtained by the STEREO/WAVES experiment show that in the source regions of solar type III radio bursts, Langmuir waves often occur as intense localized wave packets with short durations of only few ms. One of these wave packets shows that it is a three-dimensional field structure with WLneTe ~ 10−3, where WL is the peak energy density, and ne and Te are the electron density and temperature, respectively. For this wave packet, the conditions of the oscillating two-stream instability (OTSI) and supersonic collapse are satisfied within the error range of determination of main parameters. The density cavity, observed during this wave packet indicates that its depth, width and temporal coincidence are consistent with those of a caviton, generated by the ponderomotive force of the collapsing wave packet. The spectrum of each of the parallel and perpendicular components of the wave packet contains a primary peak at fpe, two secondary peaks at fpe ± fS and a low-frequency enhancement below fS, which, as indicated by the frequency and wave number resonance conditions, and the fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based tricoherence spectral peak at (fpe, fpe, fpe + fS, fpe − fS), are coupled to each other by the OTSI type of four-wave interaction (fpe is the local electron plasma frequency and fS is the frequency of ion sound waves). In addition to the primary peak at fpe, each of these spectra also contains a peak at 2fpe, which as indicated by the frequency and wave number resonance conditions, and the wavelet-based bicoherence spectral peak at (fpe, fpe), appears to correspond to the second harmonic electromagnetic waves generated as a result of coalescence of oppositely propagating sidebands excited by the OTSI. Thus, these observations for the first time provide combined evidence that (1) the OTSI and related strong turbulence processes play a significant role in the stabilization of the electron beam, (2) the coalescence of the oppositely propagating up- and down-shifted daughter Langmuir waves excited by the OTSI probably is the emission mechanism of the second harmonic radiation, and (3) the Langmuir collapse follows the route of OTSI in some of the type III radio bursts.

Primary peak and chronic malaria infection levels are correlated in experimentally infected great reed warblers

SUMMARYMalaria parasites often manage to maintain an infection for several months or years in their vertebrate hosts. In humans, rodents and birds, most of the fitness costs associated with malaria infections are in the short initial primary (high parasitaemia) phase of the infection, whereas the chronic phase (low parasitaemia) is more benign to the host. In wild birds, malaria parasites have mainly been studied during the chronic phase of the infection. This is because the initial primary phase of infection is short in duration and infected birds with severe disease symptoms tend to hide in sheltered places and are thus rarely caught and sampled. We therefore wanted to investigate the relationship between the parasitaemia during the primary and chronic phases of the infection using an experimental infection approach. We found a significant positive correlation between parasitaemia in the primary peak and the subsequent chronic phase of infection when we experimentally infected great reed warblers (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) withPlasmodium ashfordi. The reason for this association remains to be understood, but might arise from individual variation in exoerythrocytic parasite reservoirs in hosts, parasite antigenic diversity and/or host genetics. Our results suggest that the chronic phase parasitaemia can be used to qualitatively infer the parasitaemia of the preceding and more severe primary phase, which is a very important finding for studies of avian malaria in wild populations.

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud Profiling Radars: Second-Generation Sampling Strategies, Processing, and Cloud Data Products

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates millimeter-wavelength cloud radars in several climatologically distinct regions. The digital signal processors for these radars were recently upgraded and allow for enhancements in the operational parameters running on them. Recent evaluations of millimeter-wavelength cloud radar signal processing performance relative to the range of cloud dynamical and microphysical conditions encountered at the ARM Program sites have indicated that improvements are necessary, including significant improvement in temporal resolution (i.e., less than 1 s for dwell and 2 s for dwell and processing), wider Nyquist velocities, operational dealiasing of the recorded spectra, removal of pulse compression while sampling the boundary layer, and continuous recording of Doppler spectra. A new set of millimeter-wavelength cloud radar operational modes that incorporate these enhancements is presented. A significant change in radar sampling is the introduction of an uneven mode sequence with 50% of the sampling time dedicated to the lower atmosphere, allowing for detailed characterization of boundary layer clouds. The changes in the operational modes have a substantial impact on the postprocessing algorithms that are used to extract cloud information from the radar data. New methods for postprocessing of recorded Doppler spectra are presented that result in more accurate identification of radar clutter (e.g., insects) and extraction of turbulence and microphysical information. Results of recent studies on the error characteristics of derived Doppler moments are included so that uncertainty estimates are now included with the moments. The microscale data product based on the increased temporal resolution of the millimeter-wavelength cloud radars is described. It contains the number of local maxima in each Doppler spectrum, the Doppler moments of the primary peak, uncertainty estimates for the Doppler moments of the primary peak, Doppler moment shape parameters (e.g., skewness and kurtosis), and clear-air clutter flags.