The Impact of Trade Deficit in Nepalese Economy

The objective of this paper is to study and analyze the growth and direction of Nepalese foreign trade along with the causes and recommendations of trade deficit. Efforts have been made to sort out the principal sources of the trade deficit in Nepal. Landlockedness, political instability, lack of export diversification, devaluation of domestic currency, lack of resources, etc. are the major causes of the trade deficit in Nepal. Nepal, being not self-reliant on factors of production, consumer goods and capital goods, needs to import goods from abroad. On another hand, Nepal’s exports are heavily concentrated; both in terms of product and destination. Nepal’s major trading partners are India, China, U.A.E, etc. During the year 2019/20, Nepal exports goods worth RS. 97.71 Billion And import goods worth RS. 1196.80 billion Leading to a trade deficit of Rs.1099.09 Billion. Trade deficit is acting as negative catalyst in the economic growth and GDP of a country. Increased deficit has caused suppressed inflation. Import to export ratio is continuously increasing as demand is increasing and these demands could not be met by the domestic producers. During the year 2019/20, the contribution of trade on GDP of Nepal is 40.65%. No doubt, trade is an engine of economic growth. So, after analyzing barriers in the foreign trade, some of the steps to be taken are recommended which includes the development of competitive ability and enhancement of Human Resources, commodity and market diversification, formulation of strong legal framework and trade policy, incentives for the promotion of export and priority in the agricultural and hydropower sectors.

International Effect on Family SME Financial Distress Prediction

Understanding the reasons of default risk is crucial to avoid the firm's bankruptcy. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of internationalization on firm's probability of distress. For it, this chapter aims to propose a model to predict default specific to family SMEs (small and medium enterprises). An unbalanced panel of 10,832 firms over the period from 2012-2018 is analyzed. Ex-ante criteria to classify firms in default or compliant is used. International SMEs have lower probability of default than domestic firms, and compliant firms export more. Results show that export ratio is an important determinant of the probability of default. Moreover, the ratios of liquidity, profitability, size, leverage, efficiency, cash flow, and age are also relevant. Moreover, these ratios explain default risk of both groups international and domestic SMEs. The proposed model has an accuracy of 92.9%, which increases to 95.6% if only export SMEs are analyzed.

The dynamics of dairy farming development in Belarus

The authors analyze the dynamics of the Belarusian dairy sector development within a period from 2016 to 2020 being one of the major internal and external market suppliers of milk and dairy products. Since 2011, per capita growth has reached 141 kg. Export opportunities are expanding as well. It is noted that provision of milk in this period has been stable, with the gross production reaching 7765 thousand tons of milk by 2020, or 828 kg per capita. With its share of 38,8 to 43,8% in 2016–2020, milk and dairy products were playing a leading role in the agricultural produce export ratio. The number of dairy cattle in the republic amounts to 1485 heads, as of 1st January 2021. National dairy facilities and milk industry capacities in general are being gradually renovated and subjected to technological improvements, which helps with increasing the output ration of the “extra” class milk. The industry’s needs in highly productive dairy cattle and pedigree livestock for export are well secured on account of 32 cattle breeding farms and 6 genetic selection centers. Dairy industry was given specific targets set out in the five-year program for a 2016–2020 period. During the National Programme implementation with regards to the dairy sector development, the goals set by the programme have been achieved by 90,4%.

An investigation of foreign exchange risk management by exporting small and medium sized enterprises

<p>Previous studies on foreign exchange (forex) risk management have tended to focus on multinational enterprises; while how SMEs manage their forex risk is still largely unexplored. As small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly involved in international markets, they have become a new research setting on forex risk management. Given that SMEs have limited access to resources, skills and capabilities, internal hedging techniques could be favoured by SMEs. There is limited research on this matter, and the extant literature on forex management generally considers derivatives as major hedging techniques for large firms. This thesis primarily investigates how exporting SMEs manage forex risk. In addition, approaches to forex management could be changed as a firm becomes more experienced internationally. Following the basic principles of internationalisation theory, the thesis also examines the impact of the internationalisation degree of the firm on forex management decisions. This thesis sheds new light on SMEs’ hedging practices by providing a better understanding of SMEs’ choices of forex risk management. Three research questions have been raised: (1) what determinants influence SMEs’ choice to hedge as a way of managing forex risk; (2) what strategies do SMEs use when they choose hedging to manage forex exposure; and (3) how does the degree of internationalisation impact the choice of forex management. The thesis draws on two theoretical perspectives to help address these overarching questions. It extends the use of the resource-based view (RBV), and combines this with internationalisation theory. The setting of SMEs is a context for using the RBV. New Zealand and Australian exporting SMEs provide the sample for testing the hypotheses. The contributions of this thesis are twofold. Firstly, the thesis identifies four determinants of forex risk strategy by exporting SMEs, i.e. degree of internationalisation (specifically, export ratio), forex exposure, perceived forex risk, and resources. Secondly, it extends the use of the RBV and the internationalisation theory in forex risk management of SMEs. In addition, the thesis uses a research approach combining an exploratory qualitative study and a main quantitative study.</p>

An investigation of foreign exchange risk management by exporting small and medium sized enterprises

<p>Previous studies on foreign exchange (forex) risk management have tended to focus on multinational enterprises; while how SMEs manage their forex risk is still largely unexplored. As small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly involved in international markets, they have become a new research setting on forex risk management. Given that SMEs have limited access to resources, skills and capabilities, internal hedging techniques could be favoured by SMEs. There is limited research on this matter, and the extant literature on forex management generally considers derivatives as major hedging techniques for large firms. This thesis primarily investigates how exporting SMEs manage forex risk. In addition, approaches to forex management could be changed as a firm becomes more experienced internationally. Following the basic principles of internationalisation theory, the thesis also examines the impact of the internationalisation degree of the firm on forex management decisions. This thesis sheds new light on SMEs’ hedging practices by providing a better understanding of SMEs’ choices of forex risk management. Three research questions have been raised: (1) what determinants influence SMEs’ choice to hedge as a way of managing forex risk; (2) what strategies do SMEs use when they choose hedging to manage forex exposure; and (3) how does the degree of internationalisation impact the choice of forex management. The thesis draws on two theoretical perspectives to help address these overarching questions. It extends the use of the resource-based view (RBV), and combines this with internationalisation theory. The setting of SMEs is a context for using the RBV. New Zealand and Australian exporting SMEs provide the sample for testing the hypotheses. The contributions of this thesis are twofold. Firstly, the thesis identifies four determinants of forex risk strategy by exporting SMEs, i.e. degree of internationalisation (specifically, export ratio), forex exposure, perceived forex risk, and resources. Secondly, it extends the use of the RBV and the internationalisation theory in forex risk management of SMEs. In addition, the thesis uses a research approach combining an exploratory qualitative study and a main quantitative study.</p>

ANALISIS PENGARUH UTANG LUAR NEGERI DAN RISIKO NEGARA TERHADAP CAPITAL FLIGHT DI NEGARA BERKEMBANG ASEAN

This study aims to analyze the effect of foreign debt and country risk on capital flight in ASEAN developing countries. The country's risks include the current account/export ratio, economic growth, inflation, and political instability. Determination of the sample is based on annual time-series data for the period 2005 to 2019. The data used in this study is secondary data from the World Bank 2021 and the World Governance Indicator (WGI) 2021. This study uses panel data regression analysis with Fixed Effect Model using cross-section SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression). Based on the results of the F statistical test (simultaneous test) shows that foreign debt, current account/export ratio, economic growth, inflation, and political instability simultaneously have a significant effect on capital flight in ASEAN developing countries from 2005 to 2019. Then, based on the results t statistical test (partial test) shows that foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, and political instability have a significant positive effect on capital flight, while the current account/export ratio has a significant negative effect on capital flight in ASEAN developing countries from 2005 to 2019

Regional Investigation for Economies of Development Status on Changes in Export Structure of Deterioration Terms of Trade

The theory of Deterioration Terms of Trade states that the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures have a negative deterministic trend. However, the terms of trade for primary commodities have improved significantly because of higher prices of raw materials and natural resources due to the rapid development of some emerging developing countries. Literatures argued that the deterioration in terms of trade is the type of country in which the goods are exported rather than the types of goods exported by such countries are primary or manufactured goods. This paper employs regression models of alternative economies to analyze the correlation between terms of trade and manufactured goods export ratio. Results demonstrated that the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis holds for all the economies except the developed ones, and the ITTs are worsened by increases in the proportion of manufactured goods for all the economies.

International Effect on Family SME Financial Distress Prediction

Understanding the reasons of default risk is crucial to avoid the firm's bankruptcy. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of internationalization on firm's probability of distress. For it, this chapter aims to propose a model to predict default specific to family SMEs (small and medium enterprises). An unbalanced panel of 10,832 firms over the period from 2012-2018 is analyzed. Ex-ante criteria to classify firms in default or compliant is used. International SMEs have lower probability of default than domestic firms, and compliant firms export more. Results show that export ratio is an important determinant of the probability of default. Moreover, the ratios of liquidity, profitability, size, leverage, efficiency, cash flow, and age are also relevant. Moreover, these ratios explain default risk of both groups international and domestic SMEs. The proposed model has an accuracy of 92.9%, which increases to 95.6% if only export SMEs are analyzed.

The Internationalization-Performance Relationship of Small-and-Medium-sized Enterprises: The Case of Taiwan’s ESCO Industry

We analyze the international output patterns with Taiwan’s energy service companies (ESCOs) investigated in 2016~2019. Due to the finite demand in Taiwan energy-saving market, half of Taiwanese ESCOs develop Asia Pacific markets with international trade, alliance and enterprises group. We derive and confirm some hypotheses about international developing patterns of Taiwanese ESCOs. The First is that those firms with more specific resources will be easier to promote the internationalization of energy-saving businesses. The specific resources are confirmed as firm capital, annual ESCO sales, net income ratio, annual growth rate, energy saving rate. Secondly, if the degree of internationalization of ESCOs is greater, the overall profitability is also relatively higher. The third, the relationship between internationalization and profitability of ESCOs displays a non-linear trend which means when the export ratio is low, the profit from energy service projects increases; however, when the ratio exceeds the optimal point, about 49.584%~54.323%, it will reveals a reversed phenomenon due to high overseas operation costs.

External Debt and Capital Accumulation Nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

The rising public debt burden is a common feature of developing countries like Pakistan. This study is an attempt to empirically analyse the external debt and capital accumulation nexus for Pakistan from 1972 to 2016. The ARDL bound testing technique was employed to estimate two models which incorporate different indicators of external debt. Results indicate the existence of a negative relationship between external debt to revenue ratio and stock of capital that supports the debt overhang hypothesis for Pakistan. The debt overhang hypothesis states that large accumulated debt leads to a decrease in overall capital accumulation in an economy. Similarly, other indicators of external debt, namely, external debt service to revenue ratio, external debt to export ratio, and external debt service to export ratio tend to bring a fall in stock of capital in Pakistan. Based on its findings, the study suggests the need for better and productive use of external debt in public sector development projects to foster the capital accumulation process in Pakistan. JEL Classification: H63; H71; E24; H63 Keywords: External Debt; Capital Accumulation; Human Capital; ARDL.