Political Forecasting As An Integral Part Of Optimizing Public Strategic Management

The main content of the article is currently concerned only with the problems of methodology and methodology of political forecasting: the ability to see political change adequately is one of the main conditions for the correct view of political management strategies and tactics, targeted influence on political processes. The article analyzes such issues as the strength and continuity of the "forecasting - planning - management" chain, as the most important factor in achieving current and long-term goals and objectives for the political subsystem, institutions, entities and society as a whole. It also analyzes the experience of developed countries in determining the status of forecasting efficiency analysis centers through their relations with various government agencies.

The Instrument Constituency in the Political Subsystem of Brazilian Vocational Education

The instrument constituency is a component of the political subsystem dedicated to the articulation and promotion of particular types of solutions. Simons and Voss (2018) say that instrument constituencies are neglected political forces in national and transnational policymaking, advocating for more research to understand how these networks of actors emerge and their role in the political process. The aim of this work is to analyze how this type of network forms and interacts in the policy subsystem, exploring the case of the program Mulheres Mil. This is a qualitative research and it was based on the transdisciplinary proposal, which discuss with the principles of the critical discourse studies of Fairclough, combined with the model of multiple streams of Kingdon and its relation with the actors of the policy subsystem. The data used in this study were collected through: selection of the corpus of analysis; critical reading; and identification of the sections most relevant for the analysis. The corpus of analysis consisted of an interview with one of the creators of the program Mulheres Mil, and of the project Mulheres Mil in the Northeast region. It was concluded that the instrument constituencies and the groups of defense collisions refer to two distinct levels of political reality, which interact in search of different interests and objectives. In this interaction, political entrepreneurs are key elements for certain solutions to have prominence in the policy process, bridging the different networks of actors and the government.

El sistema electoral gallego: reformar, o no reformar, esa es la cuestión // The Galician electoral system: to reform, or not to reform, that is the question

Resumen:Desde que Galicia alcanzase la autonomía política hasta los últimos comicios regionales de septiembre de 2016, se han celebrado un total de diez elecciones para elegir a los representantes del Parlamento de Galicia. Transcurrido este tiempo, es posible analizar los rendimientos del sistema electoral gallego (en términos de proporcionalidad, fragmentación partidista, desigualdad en el valor del voto y primas y penalizaciones a los partidos), así como indagar en los debates sobre su origen y modificaciones posteriores. Tras la aprobación del Estatuto de Autonomía en 1981, el sistema electoral gallego fue reformado en 1992 para aumentar la barrera electoral y, más recientemente, se han planteado otras dos propuestas de reforma en los años 2012 y 2014. Con todo, las reglas electorales se han mantenido estables desde aquella pequeña modificación de los años noventa, por lo que han continuado beneficiando a los partidos establecidos, al establecer barreras de entrada a otras formaciones políticas y generar desigualdades en el valor del voto. Por ello, en este artículo formulamos una propuesta de reforma electoral que, con pequeños retoques, podría corregir algunas de las deficiencias del sistema electoral gallego, sin por ello poner en riesgo la gobernabilidad y estabilidad política que han caracterizado al subsistema político gallego durante estos años de autonomía política.Summary:I. Introduction. II. The Galician electoral system. 1. The regional electoral context. 2. The origin of the Galician electoral system. 3. The Galician electoral system at present. III. Political consequences of the electoral system. IV. Reforms and reform proposals of the Gacilician electoral system: 1. The controversial reform of 1992. 2. Proposal reforms of 2012 and 2014. V. A humble electoral reform proposal. Vi. Conclusions.Abstract:Since Galicia reached its political autonomy until the last elections of September of 2016, ten regional elections of the representatives for the Galician Parliament have been held. In the course of this time, it is possible to analyze the Galician electoral system´s yields (in terms of proportionality, party fragmentation, malapportionment, and premiums, as well as penalties to the parties), and inquire in the debates about its origin and later modifications. After the approval of the Autonomous Statute in 1981, the Galician electoral system was changed in 1992 to increase the electoral threshold and, more recently, two proposals of reform have been suggested in 2012 and 2014. Yet, the electoral rules have remained stable since the slight modification in the nineties, so they have continued to benefit the established parties, by creating barriers preventing the entrance of other parties and generating inequality in the value of the vote. Thus, in this paper we propose an electoral reform that, with minor changes, could solve some problems of the Galician electoral system, without jeopardizing the governability and political stability that have characterized the Galician political subsystem during these years of political autonomy.

Value Orientations and Systemic Changes in Montenegro, 1989-2015

The author analyses changes in value orientations in Montenegro between 1989 and 2015, examining on the basis of survey data the changes in the values that regulated the economic and political subsystems. He looks first at the period immediately preceding the breakdown of state socialism, in order to identify the spread of values relevant to the regulation of an economic subsystem which may be labelled ‘redistributive statism’, and ‘authoritarian collectivism’ within the political subsystem. He then shows how far Montenegrin society was penetrated by values pertinent to the competitive capitalist order, as well as to economic and political liberalism. He examines the changes in the modes of social reproduction and demonstrates how liberal values in fact replaced the previously dominant redistributive and authoritarian-collectivist ones. Not least, the author establishes that value changes occurred on many levels rather than simply following a linear trajectory from one system to the other.

Shared parenting, law and policy: considering power within the framework of autopoietic theory

This paper uses the last few decades’ developments in the area of shared parenting to explore power within the framework of autopoietic theory. It traces how, prompted by turbulence from the political subsystem, family law has made several unsuccessful attempts to solve the perceived problem of post-separation dual-household parenting. It agrees with Luhmann and Teubner that closed autopoietic systems’ developments are limited by their normative and cognitive frameworks, and also argues that changes which have occurred in family law show that closed social systems do not function in total isolation. It considers power as ego's ability to limit alter's choices. In our functionally differentiated society, with its recent proliferation of communication, power appears more diffuse and impossible to plot into causal one-way relationships.

Science Underlying Radioactive Waste Management: Status and Needs-Twenty Years Later

ABSTRACTThe setting of the technical subsystem within the overall socio-political-economic-technical radwaste system will be described and the highly interactive nature of the larger setting emphasized. It will be shown that because of the dominance of the socio-political subsystem, the importance of the technical subsystem is overshadowed. Moreover the key issue in the technical subsystem, whether to put more reliance on the immobilization (via the waste package or engineeered barriers) or the isolation (via the geology) has stayed tilted toward the latter since 1978, when we organized the first symposium on radwaste science (at the Materials Research Society meeting). Now that the isolation strategy is stymied, the opportunity arises again for the materials community to make a compelling case for the waste package's true significance.This review is made mainly from the perspective of one laboratory in one country, the U.S. What is remarkable about the state of research in the technical subsystem is how little the big picture of the science or the technology has changed after some billions spent on R/D. The borosilicate glass (almost unchanged) is still the establishment's choice of reference waste form for HLW Cost, however, is finally forcing cement encapsulated forms to be given a second look. Mineral-modeled ceramics have received a great deal of scientific attention but remain esoteric to managers. It will be shown that in the author's opinion an enormous amount of detailed science has been done but most of it is unlikely to prove to be of any relevance or use. The policy implications for future R/D are discussed.

The House Appropriations Committee as a Political System: The Problem of Integration

Studies of Congress by political scientists have produced a time-tested consensus on the very considerable power and autonomy of Congressional committees. Because of these two related characteristics, it makes empirical and analytical sense to treat the Congressional committee as a discrete unit for analysis. This paper conceives of the committee as a political system (or, more accurately as a political subsystem) faced with a number of basic problems which it must solve in order to achieve its goals and maintain itself. Generally speaking these functional problems pertain to the environmental and the internal relations of the committee. This study is concerned almost exclusively with the internal problems of the committee and particularly with the problem of self-integration. It describes how one congressional committee—The Committee on Appropriations of the House of Representatives—has dealt with this problem in the period 1947–1961. Its purpose is to add to our understanding of appropriations politics in Congress and to suggest the usefulness of this type of analysis for studying the activities of any congressional committee.