APPLICATION OF DECOMPOSITION METHODS IN SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF OVERALL ELECTRIC LOAD OF ENERGY SYSTEM

Based on the performed researches the method of decomposition of graphs of total electric loading of power system with application of a method of Hilbert-Huang is improved. This approach allows obtaining a homogeneous basic component of electrical load and temperature component, which has a close correlation with air temperature, which improves the accuracy of short-term forecasting. The results of testing the developed mathematical model are given. Ref. 9, fig. 1, table.

Fabrication of Weak C-Axis Preferred AlN Thin Film for Temperature Measurement

A weak C-axis preferred AlN thin film with a lot of defects was fabricated for temperature measurement. It was found that the (002) diffraction peak of the thin film increased monotonously with the increase in annealing temperature and annealing time. This phenomenon is ascribed to the evolution of defects in the lattice of the AlN film. Therefore, the relationship between defects and annealing can be expressed by the offset of (002) diffraction peak, which can be used for temperature measurement. Furthermore, a temperature interpretation algorithm Equation based on the lattice parameter (2θ), annealing temperature and annealing time was established, and a temperature interpretation software was built with MATLAB. Visual temperature interpretation is realized by the software, and the relative error is less than 7%. This study is of great significance for promoting the accurate temperature measurement on the surface of high temperature component.

North China craton: The conjugate margin for northwestern Laurentia in Rodinia

In the Rodinia supercontinent, Laurentia is placed at the center because it was flanked by late Neoproterozoic rifted margins; however, the conjugate margin for western Laurentia is still enigmatic. In this study, new paleomagnetic results have been obtained from 15 ca. 775 Ma mafic dikes in eastern Hebei Province, North China craton (NCC). Stepwise thermal demagnetization revealed a high-temperature component, directed northeast or southwest with shallow inclinations, with unblocking temperatures of as high as 580 °C. Rock magnetism suggests the component is carried by single-domain and pseudo-single-domain magnetite grains. Its primary origin is supported by a positive reversal test and regional remanence direction correlation test, and the paleomagnetic pole (29.0°S, 64.7°E, A95 = 5.4°) is not similar to any published younger poles of the NCC. Matching the late Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic (ca. 1110–775 Ma) apparent polar wander paths of the NCC and Laurentia suggests that the NCC could have been the conjugate margin for northwestern Laurentia in Rodinia, rather than sitting off the northeast coast of the main Rodinian landmass. Geological data indicate that breakup of the NCC and Laurentia occurred between ca. 775 and 720 Ma.

Geochronological and paleomagnetic studies of small carbonatite intrusions of the Udzha uplift (Tomtor massif, northeast of the Siberian platform)

<p>Paleomagnetic data obtained from Neoproterozoic glacial and glacier-associated sedimentary rocks indicate that they were formed at near equatorial latitudes. Based on these data, the Snowball Earth hypothesis was proposed [Kirschvink, 1992]. According to this hypothesis, during the Neoproterozoic glaciations, the entire planet (including the oceans) was completely covered with ice. Although evidence is emerging that does not support this hypothesis, there is still no conclusive evidence that it is not true [Sansjofre et al., 2011].</p><p>It is worth noting that the Snowball earth hypothesis is based on paleomagnetic data. At the same time, the available paleomagnetic data for the Neoproterozoic-Early Cambrian [Meert, Van der Voo, 2001; Shatsillo et al, 2005; Abrajevitch, Van der Voo, 2010; Pavlov et al., 2018] difficult to interpret in terms of the Geocentric Axial Dipole hypothesis. This imposes serious restrictions on the possibility of correctly constructing paleomagnetic reconstructions.</p><p>For the development and testing of a model of the geomagnetic field of the Neoproterozoic, it is necessary to obtain a lot of high-quality paleomagnetic data. Data from well-dated magmatic bodies are especially valuable.</p><p>Within the framework of this work, we obtained paleomagnetic data from three carbonatite dikes (7 to 30 cm thickness) exposed in the Udzha river bank on the Udzha uplift in the northeastern part of the Siberian platform. These dikes are associated with the large alkaline Tomtor massif located 15 km to the west. Ar/Ar dating of phlogopite megacrysts gives an intrusion age of the dikes of 706.1±8.8 Ma. Coordinates of the virtual geomagnetic pole, calculated from the direction of the high-temperature component of magnetization: Φ=-20.7°; Λ=88.6°; Α95=3.4°.</p><p>Our report will present preliminary interpretation of these data, as well as their comparison with paleomagnetic data on close-aged objects in Siberia.</p><p><em>The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant (19-77-10048).</em></p><p>References:</p>

New paleomagnetic results of the earliest Permian dykes in South Mongolia and their implications for the paleogeography of the Eastern CAOB

<p>Debates of the Permo-Carboniferous paleogeography of the eastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) mainly focus on the existence, extent, and thereby evolutionary history of the Paleo-Asian Ocean (PAO) in this period. South Mongolia locates at a key position that denotes the southernmost margin of the Mongolia block. Here, we present a paleomagnetic study on the earliest Permian dykes near the Khanbogd of South Gobi Province in Mongolia to better constrain the paleo-position of the Mongolia block. Zircon U-Pb dating results of the studied dykes indicate an emplacement age of 299 ± 3 Ma. Magnetites are the dominant magnetic carriers as revealed by the synthesized rock magnetic experiments. A likely primary high coercivity/temperature component was isolated from 66 of 125 samples and displays consistent reverse polarity, which coincides with the Kiaman Reverse Superchron that overlapping the emplacement age of our studied dykes. Accordingly, a ~299 Ma paleomagnetic pole is calculated at <em>λ</em>/<em>φ</em> = −4.1°N/146.3°E (<em>dp</em> = 3.8, <em>dm</em> = 5.8, n = 66). Potential influence from Paleo-Secular Variation (PSV) is excluded following the Deenen et al. (2011) procedure. Our new results present a ~30.9°N paleolatitude for the Mongolia block, which differs from the lower paleolatitude of the North China and Xilinhot blocks as well as the much higher paleolititude of Siberia. Surrounded by these blocks of different paleolatitude, the PAO and Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean both remained wide open at least by the earliest Permian.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgments<br></strong>This research was funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (41902229, 41730213, 42072264, 41902229, 41972237), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project and Hong Kong RGC GRF (17307918).</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Deenen, M. H. L. , Langereis, C. G. , Van, H. D. J. J. , & Biggin, A. J. . (2011). Geomagnetic secular variation and the statistics of palaeomagnetic directions. Geophysical Journal International(2), 509-520.</p><p></p><p></p>

Paleomagnetism of terrigenous rocks of the Volynian series (Ediacaran) from Podolia (Ukraine)

<p>We present the results of palaeomagnetic study of Ediacaran terrigenous rocks from the SW part of East European Craton (EEC), Podolia (Ukraine). Samples are represented by red tufits of Grushkinska suite by Volhynian series, which is comparable to the upper part of the Ediacaran age by the international stratigraphic scale. Samples for paleomagnetic studies were taken at the reference section of the Grushkinsky suite of the Volhynia series in the village of Grushka (48.45°N 28°E). A total of 50 oriented core samples were selected. For the entire collection of samples, the standard procedure for paleomagnetic studies was applied. The samples underwent stepwise temperature demagnetization.  Demagnetization showed that all samples are completely demagnetized at a temperature close to 700°C. The results of demagnetization showed that additionally to the viscous components of the magnetization released up to 200°C, four more stable components of NRM are released: CLM-1–component, relatively low temperature, in the range of deblocking temperatures of 200–360°C. It is characterized by south-south-west declination and negative inclination (D/I = 197.9/-28.6); CLM-2–component, is allocated in the same temperature range as component CLM-1 (200-360°С), is characterized by south-south-west declination and positive inclination (D/I = 202.4/31); CMH–component, is strictly allocated in the range of unlocking temperatures of 590–630°C. It is characterized by northwestern declination and positive inclination (D/I = 311/18.9); CH –component, a bipolar high-temperature component, is released in the temperature range of 650–700°C. The middle direction of the forward and reverse polarity is characterized by north-north-west declination and positive inclination (D/I = 296.4/71.2). The directions of normal and reverse polarity of this component are closely antipodal and successfully pass the reversal test (γ/γ<sub>c</sub> = 7.85/8.82), class “B” in accordance with [McFadden & McElhinny, 1990].</p><p>The coordinates of the virtual geomagnetic poles for the two low-temperature components, respectively, are located close to the Permian (Φ/Λ = -53.7/357.9) and Silurian part (Φ/Λ = -21.8/4.9) of the apparent polar wander path for the EEC [Torsvik et al., 2012]. The VGP, calculated from the middle-high-temperature component, is located in the Caribbean region (Φ/Λ = 33.8/271.4) and the VGP for the relatively high temperature component is located in the eastern part of the North Atlantic (Φ/Λ = -52.5/149.1) that close to the another paleomagnetic determinations with ages about 550 Ma and 570 Ma respectively for different parts of EEC.</p><p>New data demonstrate the palaeomagnetic information content of the studied rocks and the possibility of their more detailed study in order to analyze anomalous palaeomagnetic data in the ediacaran and study the evolution of the Earth's geomagnetic field.</p><p>The analysis of directions and poles indicates that the paleomagnetic results do not contradict the data on the extremely high variability of the geomagnetic field in the studied time interval.</p><p>The new paleomagnetic determinations correspond to the previous results obtained by other authors for different regions of the East European platform, thereby supplementing them.</p>

Impact assessment of climate change on hydro-climatic conditions of arid and semi-arid watersheds (case study: Zoshk-Abardeh watershed, Iran)

The hydrologic cycle in the river basins of semi-arid regions is severely influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatic condition in Zoshk-Abardeh watershed in eastern Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting – Version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm to improve the simulation results of the runoff. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System Models (MIROC-ESM) was used to investigate the effects of climate change on hydro-climatic components under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and in near- (2014–2042), mid- (2042–2071), and far- (2072–2100) futures. The temperature component under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 during the near- and mid-future intervals and the far-future period (for RCP6.0) indicated a significant rising trend. The rainfall parameter in all RCPs and future intervals showed an insignificant descending trend. Runoff alterations under the RCP4.5 amid the mid- to far-future intervals and under the RCP8.5 throughout the far-future period trailed a significant descending trend. The results determined that the temperature will track an upward tendency, while precipitation and runoff will follow a descending trend in this watershed by the end of the 21st century.