Spatiotemporal Associations between Local Safety Level Index and COVID-19 Infection Risks across Capital Regions in South Korea

This study aims provide understanding of the local-level spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 spread across capital regions of South Korea during the second and third waves of the pandemic (August 2020~June 2021). To explain transmission, we rely upon the local safety level indices along with latent influences from the spatial alignment of municipalities and their serial (temporal) correlation. Utilizing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian model as an analytic operational framework, we exploit the modified BYM (BYM2) model with the Penalized Complexity (PC) priors to account for latent effects (unobserved heterogeneity). The outcome reveals that a municipality with higher population density is likely to have an elevated infection risk, whereas one with good preparedness for infectious disease tends to have a reduction in risk. Furthermore, we identify that including spatial and temporal correlations into the modeling framework significantly improves the performance and explanatory power, justifying our adoption of latent effects. Based on these findings, we present the dynamic evolution of COVID-19 across the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), which helps us verify unique patterns of disease spread as well as regions of elevated risk for further policy intervention and for supporting informed decision making for responding to infectious diseases.

Direct and latent effects of ocean acidification on the transition of a sea urchin from planktonic larva to benthic juvenile

Ongoing ocean acidification (OA) is expected to affect marine organisms and ecosystems. While sea urchins can survive a wide range of pH, this comes at a high energetic cost, and early life stages are particularly vulnerable. Information on how OA affects transitions between life-history stages is scarce. We evaluated the direct and indirect effects of pH (pHT 8.0, 7.6 and 7.2) on the development and transition between life-history stages of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, from fertilization to early juvenile. Continuous exposure to low pH negatively affected larval mortality and growth. At pH 7.2, formation of the rudiment (the primordial juvenile) was delayed by two days. Larvae raised at pH 8.0 and transferred to 7.2 after competency had mortality rates five to six times lower than those kept at 8.0, indicating that pH also has a direct effect on older, competent larvae. Latent effects were visible on the larvae raised at pH 7.6: they were more successful in settling (45%) and metamorphosing (30%) than larvae raised at 8.0 (17 and 1% respectively). These direct and indirect effects of OA on settlement and metamorphosis have important implications for population survival.

Effects of metal toxicity on the early life stages of the sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus

<p>Metals are a common source of pollution in coastal waters, and have long been recognised as a major concern for many marine species, especially their early life stages. Although effects have been examined using standard toxicity assays, the impact of metals in more complex and realistic exposure regimes is still poorly known, in particular with regards to latent effects across multiple life stages and the interaction of multiple stressors. In this thesis, the effects of metals were investigated for multiple life stages of the endemic New Zealand sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus. Standard short-term bioassays were performed on the early life stage of E. chloroticus and also the endemic abalone Haliotis iris, for comparison. These assays evaluated the toxicity of three major pollutants (copper, lead and zinc) alone and in combination, on these species. Embryos of both species were highly vulnerable to copper (EC50s: 5.4 and 3.4 µg/L respectively for E. chloroticus and H. iris) and zinc (27.7 and 13.1 µg/L) but relatively tolerant to lead (52.2 and 775 µg/L), and there was no evidence of synergistic effects of metal mixtures. The latent effects of copper across two life stages in E. chloroticus, larval and juvenile, were investigated with laboratory experiments using realistic scenarios of low copper concentration, short pulses of exposure and examining exposure through dietary intake as well as waterborne exposure. Strong latent and carry-over effects were observed even at low concentration and short exposure time. For example, individuals exposed as larvae to 10.4 µg/L Cu for two days developed normally during the larval stage but had strongly impaired subsequent growth, with average body size decreasing by 24% in the 25 d following settlement. Moreover, juveniles previously exposed to copper as larvae were less resistant to a subsequent exposure, with up to four times higher mortality. Latent effects were especially important when copper was present in the diet rather than dissolved in water. For example, E. chloroticus larvae exposed to 2.3 µg/L Cu in water and fed with an algal diet cultured in the same concentration had a settlement success three times lower than those exposed only to waterborne copper. Furthermore, a short pulse exposure (4 days) to copper in the algal diet was generally more toxic than chronic exposure, showing that a short-lived bloom of contaminated phytoplankton may have a more severe impact on zooplankton than chronic pollution. Because metal discharge in coastal water is generally associated with freshwater (e.g. storm water or river plumes), the toxicity of copper was evaluated in both normal and low salinity seawater. Low salinity (24 ppt) increased copper toxicity in E. chloroticus larvae under chronic exposure to high levels (15 µg/L; 43% and 80% lower survival and normal development rate, respectively) but not under a single pulse exposure (4 days) to low concentration (5 µg/L). This highlights the importance of using realistic exposure in laboratory assays. Finally, the effect of copper on adult E. chloroticus and in particular on their fertilisation success was evaluated. Strong sublethal effects were observed after exposure to 50 µg/L Cu for two weeks including spawning impairment (especially in females) and elevated copper burden in gonads (25-times higher than control animals). However, the fertilisation success of successfully spawning males was not affected. The prevalence of local metal contamination was also measured at the mouth of local river plumes and in E. chloroticus gonads at sites expected to vary in likely exposure to pollution. Copper levels exceeding water quality criteria were found in two instances in coastal agricultural runoff (Makara stream). Other metals were within water quality cirteria in all samplings. Adult E. chloroticus had an elevated copper burden in gonads in an urban site compared to a control site (0.77 µg/g vs. 0.27 µg/g). In total, this research demonstrates the need for considering toxic effects across multiple life stages and using realistic exposure regimes (e.g. timing, concentration, multiple stressors) to better understand the likely impact of metal pollution on marine populations. It also provides the first measure of metal toxicity on early life stages of an endemic species of cultural and commercial importance in New Zealand.</p>

Effects of metal toxicity on the early life stages of the sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus

<p>Metals are a common source of pollution in coastal waters, and have long been recognised as a major concern for many marine species, especially their early life stages. Although effects have been examined using standard toxicity assays, the impact of metals in more complex and realistic exposure regimes is still poorly known, in particular with regards to latent effects across multiple life stages and the interaction of multiple stressors. In this thesis, the effects of metals were investigated for multiple life stages of the endemic New Zealand sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus. Standard short-term bioassays were performed on the early life stage of E. chloroticus and also the endemic abalone Haliotis iris, for comparison. These assays evaluated the toxicity of three major pollutants (copper, lead and zinc) alone and in combination, on these species. Embryos of both species were highly vulnerable to copper (EC50s: 5.4 and 3.4 µg/L respectively for E. chloroticus and H. iris) and zinc (27.7 and 13.1 µg/L) but relatively tolerant to lead (52.2 and 775 µg/L), and there was no evidence of synergistic effects of metal mixtures. The latent effects of copper across two life stages in E. chloroticus, larval and juvenile, were investigated with laboratory experiments using realistic scenarios of low copper concentration, short pulses of exposure and examining exposure through dietary intake as well as waterborne exposure. Strong latent and carry-over effects were observed even at low concentration and short exposure time. For example, individuals exposed as larvae to 10.4 µg/L Cu for two days developed normally during the larval stage but had strongly impaired subsequent growth, with average body size decreasing by 24% in the 25 d following settlement. Moreover, juveniles previously exposed to copper as larvae were less resistant to a subsequent exposure, with up to four times higher mortality. Latent effects were especially important when copper was present in the diet rather than dissolved in water. For example, E. chloroticus larvae exposed to 2.3 µg/L Cu in water and fed with an algal diet cultured in the same concentration had a settlement success three times lower than those exposed only to waterborne copper. Furthermore, a short pulse exposure (4 days) to copper in the algal diet was generally more toxic than chronic exposure, showing that a short-lived bloom of contaminated phytoplankton may have a more severe impact on zooplankton than chronic pollution. Because metal discharge in coastal water is generally associated with freshwater (e.g. storm water or river plumes), the toxicity of copper was evaluated in both normal and low salinity seawater. Low salinity (24 ppt) increased copper toxicity in E. chloroticus larvae under chronic exposure to high levels (15 µg/L; 43% and 80% lower survival and normal development rate, respectively) but not under a single pulse exposure (4 days) to low concentration (5 µg/L). This highlights the importance of using realistic exposure in laboratory assays. Finally, the effect of copper on adult E. chloroticus and in particular on their fertilisation success was evaluated. Strong sublethal effects were observed after exposure to 50 µg/L Cu for two weeks including spawning impairment (especially in females) and elevated copper burden in gonads (25-times higher than control animals). However, the fertilisation success of successfully spawning males was not affected. The prevalence of local metal contamination was also measured at the mouth of local river plumes and in E. chloroticus gonads at sites expected to vary in likely exposure to pollution. Copper levels exceeding water quality criteria were found in two instances in coastal agricultural runoff (Makara stream). Other metals were within water quality cirteria in all samplings. Adult E. chloroticus had an elevated copper burden in gonads in an urban site compared to a control site (0.77 µg/g vs. 0.27 µg/g). In total, this research demonstrates the need for considering toxic effects across multiple life stages and using realistic exposure regimes (e.g. timing, concentration, multiple stressors) to better understand the likely impact of metal pollution on marine populations. It also provides the first measure of metal toxicity on early life stages of an endemic species of cultural and commercial importance in New Zealand.</p>

Direct and Latent Effects of Pathogen Exposure Across Native and Invasive Amphibian Life Stages

Emerging infectious diseases are one of the multiple factors contributing to the current “biodiversity crisis”. As part of the worldwide biodiversity crisis, amphibian populations are declining globally. Chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a major cause of amphibian population declines. This fungus primarily affects keratinized structures in larval, juvenile, and adult amphibians as well as heart function. However, we know little about how Bd can impact embryos as well as potential latent effects of Bd exposure over ontogeny. Using two different Bd strains and multiple exposure times, we examined the effects of Bd exposure in Pacific chorus frog (Pseudacris regilla), Western toad (Anaxyrus boreas) and American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) life stages. Using a factorial experimental design, embryos of these three species were exposed to Bd at early and late embryonic stages, with some individuals re-exposed after hatching. Embryonic Bd exposure resulted in differential survival as a function of host species, Bd strain and timing of exposure. P. regilla experienced embryonic mortality when exposed during later developmental stages to one Bd strain. There were no differences across the treatments in embryonic mortality of A. boreas and embryonic mortality of L. catesbeianus occurred in all Bd exposure treatments. We detected latent effects in A. boreas and L. catesbeianus larvae, as mortality increased when individuals had been exposed to any of the Bd strains during the embryonic stage. We also detected direct effects on larval mortality in all three anuran species as a function of Bd strain, and when individuals were double exposed (late in the embryonic stage and again as larvae). Our results suggest that exposure to Bd can directly affect embryo survival and has direct and latent effects on larvae survival of both native and invasive species. However, these impacts were highly context dependent, with timing of exposure and Bd strain influencing the severity of the effects.

A joint hierarchical model for the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 across the boroughs of Montreal

Montreal is the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada with highest number of deaths. The cumulative numbers of cases and deaths in the 33 areas of Montreal are modelled through bivariate hierarchical Bayesian models using Poisson distributions. The Poisson means are decomposed in the log scale as the sums of fixed effects and latent effects. The areal median age, the educational level, and the number of beds in long-term care homes are included in the fixed effects. To explore the correlation between cases and deaths inside and across areas, three bivariate models are considered for the latent effects, namely an independent one, a conditional autoregressive model, and one that allows for both spatially structured and unstructured sources of variability. As the inclusion of spatial effects change some of the fixed effects, we extend the Spatial+ approach to a Bayesian areal set up to investigate the presence of spatial confounding.

Harmoniously Denied: COVID-19 and the Latent Effects of Censorship

While few would doubt that censorship is a form of surveillance, the practice and theory of censorship does not hold as prominent a place within surveillance studies as one might think. In this paper, we demonstrate the constitutive effects of censorship that seep into the collective mentality and, in Foucauldian terms, “conducts the conduct.” We examine the wider socio-political impact of China’s censorship of COVID-19. We argue that censorship is a force “at large.” By this we refer to the pervasive uptake of censorship practices at different levels and how censorship manifests itself as a form of power unchained, making it difficult, if not impossible, to track and contain its impact, even for the authorities. We argue that censorship surveils the expressed and, by extension, regulates the not-yet-expressed. It surveils what can be perceived and, by extension, pre-conditions the not-yet-conceived. We highlight the domestic impact of how China’s censorship regime bends its population into acquiescing to a harmonious denial of its collective prospects and how it curtails the global response.

Ranking 67 Florida Reefs for Survival of Acropora cervicornis Outplants

Over the past three decades, coral populations have declined across the tropical and subtropical oceans because of thermal stress, coral diseases, and pollution. Restoration programs are currently attempting to re-establish depauperate coral populations along the Florida reef tract. We took an integrated Bayesian approach to determine which Florida reefs ranked highest based on the survival of outplanted colonies of Acropora cervicornis from 2012 to 2018. Survival of A. cervicornis outplants was highly variable in the upper Florida Keys with some reefs showing the highest likelihood of survival (e.g., North Dry Rocks, Carysfort, Key Largo Dry Rocks, and Conch Reef), whereas some adjacent reefs showed the lowest likelihood of survival (e.g., an Unnamed Reef, Pickles Reef, and U47 Patch Reef). Similarly, survival was highly variable in the middle and lower Florida Keys and in the Broward-Miami subregions. Survival was high and less variable in Biscayne Bay and low and less variable in the Marquesas subregions. The reefs that ranked lowest for outplant survival were exposed to high wave energy. Partitioning out the spatial effects of reefs and subregions from the model, we detected spatial latent effects of low survival that were most evident in the middle and the upper Florida Keys, particularly between 2015 and 2017. The overall high spatial and temporal variability in survival among adjacent reefs highlights a need to outplant nursery-reared colonies strategically, in order to optimize coral-population recovery efforts in Florida.

A prospective study of time-dependent exposures to childhood adversity and DNA methylation in childhood and adolescence

Background: Childhood adversity influences long-term health, particularly if experienced during sensitive periods in development when physiological systems are more responsive to environmental influences. Although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, prior studies suggest that DNA methylation (DNAm) may capture these time-dependent effects of childhood adversity. However, it remains unknown whether DNAm alterations persist into adolescence and how the timing of adversity might influence DNAm trajectories across development. Methods: We examined the relationship between time-dependent adversity and genome-wide DNAm measured at three waves from birth to adolescence using prospective data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We first assessed the relationship between the timing of exposure to seven types of adversity (measured 5-8 times between ages 0-11) and DNAm at age 15 using a structured life course modeling approach. We also characterized the persistence into adolescence of associations identified from age 7 DNAm, as well as the influence of adversity on DNAm trajectories from ages 0-15. Results: Adversity was associated with differences in age 15 DNAm at 24 loci (FDR<0.05). Most loci (19 of 24) were associated with adversity (i.e., physical/sexual abuse, one-adult households, caregiver abuse) that occurred between ages 3-5. Although no DNAm differences present at age 7 persisted into adolescence, we identified seven unique types of DNAm trajectories across development, which highlighted diverse effects of childhood adversity on DNAm. Conclusions: Our results suggest that childhood adversity, particularly between ages 3-5, can influence the trajectories of DNAm across development, exerting both immediate and latent effects on the epigenome.