scholarly journals Evidence for the irrelevance of irrelevant events

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Stefan Müller ◽  
Liam Kneafsey
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Political Accountability ◽  
Unexpected Event ◽  
Conditional Effects ◽  
Election Results

Abstract The expectation that voters behave rationally has been challenged through studies suggesting that “irrelevant events” like natural disasters and sports results change voting behavior. We test the effect of irrelevant events by matching candidate-level election results from Irish general (1922–2020) and local elections (1942–2019) with games in the men's Gaelic football and hurling championships, the most popular sports in Ireland. Although Irish citizens care deeply about sports, we fail to find any relationship between match results and support for incumbents or politicians of government parties. These findings hold when applying an “unexpected event during survey design” to two representative surveys. Our results contribute to the literature on political accountability and point to conditional effects of irrelevant events.

Local Elections and the Politics of Small-Scale Democracy

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eric Oliver ◽  
Shang E. Ha ◽  
Zachary Callen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Personal Connections ◽  
Community Ties

Local government is the hidden leviathan of American politics: it accounts for nearly a tenth of gross domestic product, it collects nearly as much in taxes as the federal government, and its decisions have an enormous impact on Americans' daily lives. Yet political scientists have few explanations for how people vote in local elections, particularly in the smaller cities, towns, and suburbs where most Americans live. Drawing on a wide variety of data sources and case studies, this book offers the first comprehensive analysis of electoral politics in America's municipalities. Arguing that current explanations of voting behavior are ill suited for most local contests, the book puts forward a new theory that highlights the crucial differences between local, state, and national democracies. Being small in size, limited in power, and largely unbiased in distributing their resources, local governments are “managerial democracies” with a distinct style of electoral politics. Instead of hinging on the partisanship, ideology, and group appeals that define national and state elections, local elections are based on the custodial performance of civic-oriented leaders and on their personal connections to voters with similarly deep community ties. Explaining not only the dynamics of local elections, Oliver's findings also upend many long-held assumptions about community power and local governance, including the importance of voter turnout and the possibilities for grassroots political change.

Ein zunehmend bunter Freistaat: Die Analyse der bayerischen Kommunalwahlen im März 2020 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der kreisfreien Städte

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-94
Author(s):  
Jan Pollex ◽  
Sebastian Block ◽  
Martin Gross ◽  
Dominic Nyhuis ◽  
Jan A. Velimsky
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
The Social ◽  
Election Results

Despite their crucial role for democratic decision-making, local elections receive little atten­tion from political science research . To overcome this shortcoming, the article analyses the Bavarian local elections of 2020 . Although the CSU remains the strongest party in the Free State, the Green Party was able to make considerable gains, especially in larger cities . How­ever, the Greens could not gain any grounds in mayoral elections, whereas CSU and SPD competed for the win . In most of the cases, the Social Democrats won the posts in city halls . In addition to detailing election results, this article addresses the ballot lists, the com­position of local councils, and coalition building at the local level . Overall, this contribu­tion provides a comprehensive account of the elections, which are characterized by their unique ballot system and, thus, have a special role in the political system of Germany .

scholarly journals The Accumulation Effect

2005 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raivo Palmaru
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Accumulation Effect ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Media ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Prevailing View

Abstract Although numerous studies over the past 20 years have revealed a clear connection between content analysis statistics and the results of public opinion surveys, the media’s “minimal effects” hypothesis still remains the overwhelmingly prevailing view. Among other things, it is not clear which of the two influences the other: Do people’s political preferences influence the media or do the media influence people’s preferences? In order to test this, the results of the 1999 and 2003 general elections and the 2002 local elections in Estonia, as well as the results of current public opinion surveys, were compared to the coverage given to the campaigning parties in the largest Estonian newspapers. The analysis showed that the coverage of political parties in the print media, as determined by the frequency of valuative notations, described the election results to a great extent. It is noteworthy that a change in media content was followed by a change in public opinion. At the same time, an accumulation effect became obvious: The voters’ preferences for political parties accumulated diachronically during the course of several weeks based on the information that was available to them.

scholarly journals KOMUNIKASI POLITIK PASANGAN CALON TUNGGAL TERHADAP PERILAKU MEMILIH MASYARAKAT KEFAMENANU PADA PILKADA 2015 DI KABUPATEN TTU PROVINSI NTT

2016 ◽  
Vol 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veki Edizon Tuhana ◽  
Pawito , ◽  
Mahendra Wijaya ,
Keyword(s):  
Political Communication ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Candidate Pair ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Political Message ◽  
Independent Path ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The process of local elections is the right of every citizen to choose their leaders directly correspond running from an independent path to meet certain requirements. Concurrent local elections 2015 in Indonesia, which is in North Central Timor with a single candidate pair. Couples candidate election time carried out. This article is the result of research exploring: 1) analyzing the relationship between political communicator (single candidate pair) to the effects (voting behavior of society); 2) analyzing the relationship between the political message to the effect (voting behavior of society); 3) analyzing the relationship between media and interpersonal channels of the effect (voting behavior of society); 4) effects (voting behavior of society); As for the type of research is quantitative research with survey method.The study population was the whole community voters in District Kefamenanu City. The conclusions ofthe research and discussion is no relationship between political communicator with effect (voting behavior of society), there is a relationship between a political message to the effect, there is a relationship between are not have a relationship with the effects. Keywords: Political communication, single candidate pair, the public voting behavior Abstrak Proses Pemilihan Kepala Daerah merupakan hak bagi setiap warga negara untuk memilih langsung pemimpinnya sesuai keyakinan dan penilaiannya terhadap calon yang diusulkan oleh masing-masing partai atau gabungan partai, atau yang mencalonkan diri dari jalur independen dengan memenuhi syarat tertentu. Pilkada serentak Tahun 2015 di Indonesia, salah satunya di Provinsi NTT, yaitu di Kabupaten Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) dengan pasangan calon tunggal. Proses pilkada pasangan calon tunggal merupakan hal yang menarik karena sepanjang sejarah demokrasi dan sistem politik Indonesia baru pertama kali dilakukan. Artikel ini merupakan hasil penelitian yang mengeksplorasi: 1) Menganalisis hubungan komunikator politik (pasangan calon tunggal) terhadap efek (perilaku memilih masyarakat);2) Menganalisis hubungan pesan politik terhadap efek (perilaku memilih masyarakat); 3) Menganalisis hubungan media dan saluran interpersonal terhadap efek (perilaku memilih masyarakat); 4) Menganalisis hubungan model pendekatan sosiologis (agama yang dianut dan jenis pekerjaan) terhadap efek (perilaku memilih masyarakat); adapun jenis penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode survei. Populasi penelitian adalah seluruh masyarakat pemilih di Kecamatan Kota Kefamenanu. Adapun kesimpulan dari hasil penelitian dan pembahasan adalah ada hubungan antara komunikator politik dengan efek (perilaku memilih masyarakat), ada hubungan antara pesan politik dengan efek, ada hubungan antara media dan saluran dengan efek, model pendekatan sosiologis (agama yang dianut dan jenis pekerjaan) tidak mempunyai hubungan dengan efek. Kata kunci: Komunikasi politik, pasangan calon tunggal, perilaku memilih masyarakat

What Influences Local Voters’ Electoral Choices?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eric Oliver ◽  
Shang E. Ha ◽  
Zachary Callen
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Democratic Theory ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
Normative Expectations ◽  
Knowledge Levels ◽  
Unique Dataset

This chapter examines what individual voters know about local elections and what factors shape their voting choices. After reviewing how and why we might expect that local voting behavior may differ from presidential voting behavior, it examines a unique dataset of over 1400 voters in thirty different smaller communities that focuses on these questions in particular. In line with their “homevoter” identities, most local voters typically have high knowledge levels about candidates and express a great deal of interest in local affairs. But because of this, local voters tend to employ different criteria than national ones. They are far more likely to base their votes on specific issues or incumbent performance and less likely to utilize heuristics like partisanship or candidate charisma, although this varies somewhat with the size, scope, and bias of their community. Local voters are also more likely to embody the normative expectations of the informed and rational citizen of classical democratic theory.

Understanding Michigan's Electoral Competitiveness: Swing Counties 1976-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-201
Author(s):  
JOHN S. KLEMANSKI ◽  
DAVID A. DULIO ◽  
DOUGLAS A. CARR
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
County Level ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Electoral Competitiveness

ABSTRACT Considerable media attention was given to the so-called “pivot counties” in the U.S. and in Michigan that flipped from supporting Barack Obama twice to voting for Donald Trump in 2016. We first summarize theories of voting behavior and speculate about why Michigan has been consistently competitive over the years. We explore 40 years' worth of county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in Michigan to determine how frequently counties have flipped across a large number of elections. We find that a number of Michigan counties frequently flip between elections, but the number of competitive Michigan counties has substantially declined in recent decades. Turnout in larger counties can affect election outcomes, and large counties that swing have been key bellwethers in past elections, and should be a major focus of research on future elections in Michigan.

Ballot Paper Design and Vote Spoiling at Polish Local Elections of 2014: Establishing a Causal Link

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 611-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Pierzgalski ◽  
Maciej A. Górecki ◽  
Paweł Stępień
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Method ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Political Protest ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Effect Relationship ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Ballot Design ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Paper Format

Large proportions of spoilt ballots may lead to a distortion of election results. While invalid votes are sometimes meaningful political acts, reflecting political protest, spoilt ballot papers may also be a consequence of voter error, which can be attributed to the poor design of a ballot paper. In this study, we focus on the widely publicized case of the Polish local elections of 2014. These elections saw unprecedentedly large proportions of spoilt votes, and ballot paper format was often mentioned as a potential culprit. Yet it remains largely unclear whether or not there indeed does exist a cause-and-effect relationship between ballot card format and the tendency of voters to cast invalid votes. We argue that what we deliver here is the first methodologically refined test of the aforementioned hypothesis. We apply the generalized synthetic control comparative method, proposed by Yiquing Xu (in 2017), and show that the implementation of a complex or ambiguous ballot design can result in a substantial increase in the rate of spoilt votes. We thus demonstrate that ballot paper design matters. Specifically, the results of this study corroborate the existence of a cause-and-effect relationship between ballot paper format and the fraction of invalid votes in the 2014 municipal elections in Poland.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

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