Abstract
Covid-19 is a viral disease which has briskly invaded the globe, Sri Lanka being no exception. If community transmission of Covid-19 occurs, it will have serious demands on Sri Lanka’s free health care system. Objective of this study was to simulate the widespread community transmission of Covid-19 in Sri Lanka. We used the Susceptibility, Infected and Removed (SIR) model through the Penn State University CHIME Model incorporated to ArcGIS Pro. We simulated introduction of one case of Covid-19 to each of the 26 health districts and ran the model for 365 days. During simulated scenario, the number patients requiring admissions, ICU care and mechanical ventilation will peak at 1942, 583 and 388 per day respectively around 213 days from the onset of widespread community transmission. The cumulative number of cases needing admission, ICU care and ventilation will be 245,916, 73,775 and 49,183 after 365 days. Colombo and Gampaha districts will report the highest number of daily total numbers of hospitalized cases, each which will be over 1680. Health authorities must be ready for the worst-case scenarios of the Covid-19 outbreak to sustain public health response to reduce morbidity and mortality.