Remittances and Economic Growth in Niger: An Error Correction Mechanism Approach

Migration has for a long time been a significant source of revenue for a huge number of persons in the Republic of Niger. In order to improve their families living condition, a great number of young people in Niger follow the migration path. In 2019, a total of 293 million U.S. dollars has been sent by migrants to their family members in Niger (World Bank, 2019), that is 3% of Niger GDP. The study used various time series econometric techniques including unit root test, Engle-Granger cointegration test, vector equilibrium correction method and some diagnostic tests on the residuals to inspect the connection between remittances and economic growth in Niger. The empirical results showed that there is the existence of a long run relationship between remittances and economic growth in Niger. The error correction term’s coefficient shows that about 51.62% of the discrepancy between long run and short run is corrected with a yearly data suggesting an acceptable rate of adjustment to equilibrium. Also, in the short run ceteris paribus a 10% increase in the remittances would lead to 2.03% increase in Niger Gross Domestic Product.

The Role of Wage Formation in Empirical Macroeconometric Models

The specification of model equations for nominal wage setting has important implications for the properties of macroeconometric models and requires system thinking and multiple equation modeling. The main models classes are the Phillips curve model (PCM), the wage–price equilibrium correction model (WP-ECM), and the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPCM). The PCM was included in the macroeconometric models of the 1960s. The WP‑ECM arrived in the late 1980s. The NKPCM is central in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGEs). The three model classes can be interpreted as different specifications of the system of stochastic difference equations that define the supply side of a medium-term macroeconometric model. This calls for an appraisal of the different wage models, in particular in relation to the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU, or natural rate of unemployment), and of the methods and research strategies used. The construction of macroeconomic model used to be based on the combination of theoretical and practical skills in economic modeling. Wage formation was viewed as being forged between the forces of markets and national institutions. In the age of DSGE models, macroeconomics has become more of a theoretical discipline. Nevertheless, producers of DSGE models make use of hybrid forms if an initial theoretical specification fails to meet a benchmark for acceptable data fit. A common ground therefore exists between the NKPC, WP‑ECM, and PCM, and it is feasible to compare the model types empirically.

Did OPEC change its behaviour after the November 2014 meeting?

We analyse the behaviour of OPEC as a group by formulating a theoretical model that encompasses the perfect competition model and various forms of the imperfect competition model. By confronting the theoretical model with quarterly data for the period from 1992 to 2013 within the context of a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model, we find support for the imperfect competition hypothesis regarding the output decisions of OPEC. We also find that a dynamic equilibrium correction model with imperfect competition is stable in-sample. However, a forecasting exercise for the period from 2014 to 2018 reveals that the model breaks down following the November 2014 meeting at which OPEC decided to keep its supply unchanged despite the huge oil price drop in advance. The model systematically underpredicts OPEC production over the forecast period and by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day at the end of 2016. During 2018, however, the model forecasts OPEC production quite well. Our findings suggest that the behaviour of OPEC did indeed change significantly after the November 2014 meeting.

Analysis of the reactor antineutrino spectrum anomaly with fuel burnup

Recently, three successful antineutrino experiments (Daya Bay, Double Chooz, and RENO) measured the neutrino mixing angle θ13; however, significant discrepancies were found, both in the absolute flux and spectral shape. Much effort has been expended investigating the possible reasons for the discrepancies. In this paper, the change of neutrino energy spectrum with burnup is analyzed from the point of view of the change of neutrino energy spectrum with burnup. An accurate method for calculating neutrino energy spectrum is proposed. The non-equilibrium correction is studied by using this method. It is found that the non-equilibrium correction contributes not only to the energy region less than 4.0 MeV, but also to the energy region greater than 4.0 MeV, with a maximum correction of about 3%.

The term structure of Eurozone peripheral bond yields: an asymmetric regime-switching equilibrium correction approach

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve i.e. the difference between long and short-term bond rates and the role of asymmetries in the term structure of bond yields with respect to real economic activity. Using an extensive dataset, comprising 3-month, 1-year, 5-year and 10-year constant maturity Treasury bonds for the Eurozone southern periphery countries – the so-called “PIIGS” – from January 1999 to April 2019, we investigate the links between bond yields of different maturities for the Eurozone southern peripheral countries and we find they co-evolve in line with the predictions of the Expectations Hypothesis theory. We demonstrate the presence of nonlinearities in the term structure, and utilize a multivariate asymmetric two-regime Markov-switching VAR methodology to model them properly. Moreover, we address the economic reasoning behind the introduction of an equilibrium-correction regime-switching approach, hence providing potentially important insights on the behaviour of the entire yield curve. We reveal that the regime shifts are related to the state of the business cycle, particularly in economies in which monetary policy decisions are implemented via changes in short-term rates as a response to deviations of output from equilibrium levels. Our results may have important statistical and economic implications on the behaviour of the term structure of bond yields.

Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride From Climate Change? Evidence From Argentine Time Series

Soybean yields are often indicated as an interesting case of climate change mitigation due to the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization. In this paper we econometrically study this effect using a time series model of yields in a multivariate framework for a main producer and exporter of this commodity, Argentina. We have to deal with the upward behavior of soybean yields trying to identify which variables are the long-run determinants responsible of its observed trend. With this aim we adopt a partial system approach to estimate subsets of long-run relationships due to climate, technological and economic factors. Using an automatic selection algorithm we evaluate encompassing of the different obtained equilibrium correction models. We found that only technological innovations due to new crop practices and the use of modified seeds explain soybean yield in the long run. Regarding short run determinants we found positive effects associated with the use of standard fertilizers and also from changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration which would suggest a mitigation effect from global warming. However, we also found negative climate effects from periods of droughts associated with La Niña episodes, high temperatures and extreme rainfall events during the growing season of the plant.