Quantitative Analysis of Multiparty Tariff Negotiations

We develop a model of international tariff negotiations to study the design of the institutional rules of the GATT/WTO. A key principle of the GATT/WTO is its most‐favored‐nation (MFN) requirement of nondiscrimination, a principle that has long been criticized for inviting free‐riding behavior. We embed a multisector model of international trade into a model of interconnected bilateral negotiations over tariffs and assess the value of the MFN principle. Using 1990 trade flows and tariff outcomes from the Uruguay Round of GATT/WTO negotiations, we estimate the model and use it to simulate what would happen if the MFN requirement were abandoned and countries negotiated over discriminatory tariffs. We find that if tariff bargaining in the Uruguay Round had proceeded without the MFN requirement, it would have wiped out the world real income gains that MFN tariff bargaining in the Uruguay Round produced and would have instead led to a small reduction in world real income relative to the 1990 status quo.

Análisis de las emisiones asociadas al sector energético en España

The greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere are an economic and environmental problem. In this work we make a detailed study of the emissions from the branches of the Spanish energy sector. To this end, we have developed for the Spanish economy a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with Environmental Accounts, considering the six greenhouse gases that the Kyoto Protocol states. In this SAM, the energy sector appears disaggregated in eight sectors, including renewable branches, in order to distinguish the emissions of each type of energy. The analysis is performed using a linear multisector model applied to the SAM, which allows us to obtain the emissions, both direct and indirect, caused by each branch of the Spanish energy sector. Finally, we evaluate the impact in emissions caused by a shift in the household energy consumption towards renewable energy.

Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement

Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multisector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade-comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (i) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (ii) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (iii) inputs are substitutable for primary factors. (JEL E23, E32, F11, F14, F43, F44)

Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth

We study a multisector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change, characterized by sectoral labor reallocation and balanced aggregate growth. The conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions. Along the balanced growth path, labor employed in the production of consumption goods gradually moves to the sector with the lowest TFP growth rate, until in the limit it is the only sector with nontrivial employment of this kind. The employment shares of intermediate and capital goods remain constant during the reallocation process. (JEL O41)