Model for forecasting the dynamics and growth of the throughput of the Central Asian transport corridor lines

This article has taken into account the importance of international corridors in Central Asia, and has provided data on the importance of rail transport in the state economy and the efficiency of projects when developing railways. The weakness and lack of import and export logistics functions in the hinterland regions creates a bottleneck that limits the development of the external economy and trade. Identification of development paths using the example of the Akhangaran-Tukimachi-Syrdarya line based on modelling of carrying capacity and comparison with the actual freight flow for rational regulation and rationing of train throughput. The method of approximation has been applied to forecast the dynamics of capacity and throughput growth on the line in question. A forecasting model was developed that corresponds to the nature of changes in the trend of the freight traffic under study. It will allow to foresee difficulties in the transportation process, to work out the line development stages to improve the carrying capacity of hauls, to plan the work of reloading stations correctly and to organise the rational use of railway transport means. As an example, the Akhangaran - Tukimachi - Syrdarya line is the main transit direction which affects all the work of the railway of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Improvement of the line for passing transit and local freight flows will improve the competitiveness of the railway in freight transportation.

Evaluation of green building incremental cost and benefit based on SD model

In order to eliminate the characteristics of long payback period and external economy of green building investment, and realize the accurate evaluation of green building cost and benefit. Based on the new estimation method, this paper constructs the system dynamics(SD) model of incremental cost-effectiveness of green building, and the rationality of the model is further tested and judged. This paper studies the change law of incremental cost and benefit of green building energy saving from the perspective of SD model. The incremental benefit of green building is greater than the incremental cost, and the time balance between them is about 8.0 years. The conclusion can provide enlightenment for the further development of green building.

Entrepreneurialism through Self-Management in Afghan Guest Towns in Iran

This article studies the self-management of guest towns (GTs) in Iran and the development of Afghan refugees’ employment and entrepreneurship in these settlements. No earlier research exists on refugee entrepreneurialism in GTs in Iran. The research is based on surveys (546 refugee respondents), interviews (35 refugees) and observations in four GTs in Iran, and interviews (12) with key public authorities related to Afghan refugees in Iran. Of the nearly one million Afghan refugees in Iran, approximately 30,000 reside in 20 GTs, each having up to a few thousand inhabitants. Following a decrease in international support for Afghan refugees and national privatisation policies, the Iranian government decided in 2003 that GTs needed to be self-managed to be financially self-sustainable by their Afghan refugee inhabitants. The motivation and necessity generated by GT self-management led to the increase, diversification, and profit orientation in Afghan refugees’ economic activities in the GTs. The GT refugee councils facilitated internal entrepreneurship fostered externally by state policies, such as the GTs’ obligation to become economically self-sustainable and the provision of tax exemptions and other incentives to GTs. A larger number of Afghan refugees (including women) obtained employment, various entrepreneurial trajectories emerged, and several businesses connected the GTs to the external economy.

BANK PANICS AND FIRE SALES, INSOLVENCY AND ILLIQUIDITY

Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that can propagate distress contagiously both directly within the banking network itself and indirectly, between the network and the external economy. These contagious effects, and the potential events that trigger these effects, can explain most aspects of past crises, and are thought to be likely to dominate future financial crises. Since the current international financial regulatory regime based on the Basel III Accord does a good job of ensuring that banks are resilient to such contagion effects taken one at a time, systemic risk theorists increasingly understand that future crises are likely to be dominated by the spillovers between distinct contagion channels. The present paper aims to provide a model for systemic risk that is comprehensive enough to include the important contagion channels identified in the literature. In such a model one can hope to understand the dangerous spillover effects that are expected to dominate future crises. To rein in the number and complexity of the modelling assumptions, two requirements are imposed, neither of which is yet well-known or established in the main stream of systemic risk research. The first, called stock-flow consistency, demands that the financial system follows a rigorous set of rules based on accounting principles. The second requirement, called asset-liability symmetry, implies that every proposed contagion channel has a dual channel obtained by interchanging assets and liabilities, and that these dual channel pairs have a symmetric mathematical representation.

DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTHEDGING ACTIVITY ON COMPANY’S INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

<p>Between 2008-2009, Indonesia had financial crisis which made companies tried hard to stabilize its economy and found solutions or preventive action to resolve the problems of the crisis. Several ways can be applied to resolved these risks, and hedging activity was one solution. Data sampling in this article were taken from automotive industry listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) between 2010-2014. The purpose of this study is to determine activity of derivative instruments to hedge the volatility in economic conditions of internal and external company. Internal economy condition is described by financial distress and external economy condition is described by economic exposure. Logistic regression analysis is a tool used in this research. The results indicate that financial distress provides significant negative effect on implementation of hedging activities, while economic exposure does not affect the implementation of hedging activities. Further research can use other sector or using all sector companies listed at the Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) and with a longer period of time. However, added some independent variables can affect hedging activities such as interest rates and inflation.</p>

LEADING INDIAN BUSINESS-GROUPS

The goal of this paper is to investigate the evolution of the leading Indian business-groups under the conditions of economical liberalization. It is shown that the role of modern business-groups in the Indian economy is determined by their high rate in the gross domestic product (GDP), huge overall actives, substantial pert in the e[port of goods and services, as well as by their activities in modern branch structure formatting, and developing labor-intensive and high-tech branches. They strongly influence upon economical national strategies, they became a locomotive of internationalization and of transnationalization of India, the basis of the external economy factor system, the promoters of Indian "economical miracle" on the world scene, and the dynamical segment of economical and social development of modern India. The tendencies of the development of the leading Indian business groups are: gradual concentration of production in few clue sectors, "horizontal" structure, incorporation of the enterprises into joint-stock structure, attraction of hired top-managers and transnationaliziation. But against this background the leading Indian business-groups keep main traditional peculiarities: they mostly still belong to the families of their founders, even today they observe caste or communal relations which are the basis of their non-formal backbone tides, they still remain highly diversificated structures with weak interrelations. Specific national ambivalence and combination of traditions and innovations of the leading Indian business-groups provide their high vitality and stability in the controversial, multiform, overloaded with caste and confessional remains Indian reality. We conclude that in contrast to the dominant opinion transformation of these groups into multisectoral corporations of the western type is far from completion, and in the nearest perspective they will still possess all their peculiarities and incident social and economical "colouring".

Causes of Architect’s “Absence” in Green Building Practices

Beginning from an analysis of the green building evaluation and labeling projects reviewed, this paper has a comprehensive analysis on the low content of green design and obvious “absence” of architects in the majority of evaluation and labeling projects by use of the theories of green architecture and economics. The author holds that such “absence” is originated from the external economy and technical complexity of green buildings and attributes the causes to two aspects: First, there is no sound and effective incentive mechanism in the environment in which the architects are, especially the lack of professional identity and motivation of green design in architectural design appraisal, award and review criteria; Second, architects are less self-motivated, mentally backward and poor in comprehensive quality. Targeted measures are expected to advance the concept changes in the architectural education community, promote architects to transform thinking and enhance capacity and boost the “green” development of green buildings.