A Review of the Fractal Market Hypothesis for Trading and Market Price Prediction

This paper provides a review of the Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH) focusing on financial times series analysis. In order to put the FMH into a broader perspective, the Random Walk and Efficient Market Hypotheses are considered together with the basic principles of fractal geometry. After exploring the historical developments associated with different financial hypotheses, an overview of the basic mathematical modelling is provided. The principal goal of this paper is to consider the intrinsic scaling properties that are characteristic for each hypothesis. In regard to the FMH, it is explained why a financial time series can be taken to be characterised by a 1/t1−1/γ scaling law, where γ>0 is the Lévy index, which is able to quantify the likelihood of extreme changes in price differences occurring (or otherwise). In this context, the paper explores how the Lévy index, coupled with other metrics, such as the Lyapunov Exponent and the Volatility, can be combined to provide long-term forecasts. Using these forecasts as a quantification for risk assessment, short-term price predictions are considered using a machine learning approach to evolve a nonlinear formula that simulates price values. A short case study is presented which reports on the use of this approach to forecast Bitcoin exchange rate values.

158. Impact of Fluoroquinolone Cascade Reporting of Urine Samples on Antibiotic Prescribing Rates in a Network of Urgent Care Clinics

Background Cascade reporting is a type of selective reporting in which susceptibility results of certain antibiotics (either with broader spectrum or cost) are only reported if an organism is resistant to other prespecified agents. This strategy has been successfully deployed in inpatient settings but its impact in outpatient settings is less well characterized. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the impact of cascade reporting of the antimicrobial susceptibility of fluoroquinolones on prescribing rates of select antibiotics in a network of urban Urgent Care clinics. Methods On July 2019, the susceptibility reporting policies for urine cultures growing Enterobacterales were changed to routinely reporting a limited antibiotic panel including first and second generation cephalosporins, nitrofurantoin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), and fluroquinolone (FQ) reporting was changed to a release only in case of resistance to all agents in the limited panel. Third and fourth generation cephalosporins and carbapenems were reported only in case of resistance to all narrower spectrum agents and FQs. We then compared monthly antibiotic use in prescriptions per 1000 patient-encounters for the pre-intervention (June 2018-June 2019) and post-intervention (August 2019-December 2020) periods using an interrupted times series analysis. Results Immediately following the change to cascade reporting, FQ prescribing decreased by 38% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.77 p< 0.0001) and no change in trend was subsequently seen (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 0.98-1.04; p=0.59) (Figure 1).Cephalexin prescribing did not immediately change following the intervention (IRR 1.20, 95% CI 1.00-1.33; p=0.05) but subsequently showed a trend towards increase use (IRR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06; p< 0.0001) (Figure 1). No immediate or trend changes in the prescribing rates of TMP-SMX or nitrofurantoin were identified (Figure 1). Conclusion In a network of Urgent Care clinics, cascade reporting of FQ susceptibility in urine cultures growing Enterobacterales resulted in a sustained decrease in FQ prescribing without major shifts towards prescribing of other agents. Cascade reporting should be considered as a feasible antimicrobial stewardship strategy in this outpatient setting. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Reducing missed appointments in general practice: evaluation of a quality improvement programme in East London

BackgroundMissed appointments are common in primary care, contributing to reduced clinical capacity. NHS England has estimated that there are 7.2 million missed general practice appointments annually, at a cost of £216 million. Reducing these numbers is important for an efficient primary care sector.AimTo evaluate the impact of a system-wide quality improvement (QI) programme on the rates of missed GP appointments, and to identify effective practice interventions.Design and settingPractices within a clinical commissioning group (CCG) in East London, with an ethnically diverse and socially deprived population.MethodStudy practices engaged in a generic QI programme, which included sharing data on appointment systems and Did Not Attend (DNA) rates. Fourteen out of 25 practices implemented DNA reduction projects, supported by practice-based coaching. Appointment data were collected from practice electronic health records. Evaluation included comparisons of DNA rates pre- and post-intervention using interrupted times series analysis.ResultsIn total, 25 out of 32 practices engaged with the programme. The mean DNA rate at baseline was 7% (range 2–12%); 2 years later the generic intervention DNA rates were 5.2%. This equates to a reduction of 4030 missed appointments. The most effective practice intervention was to reduce the forward booking time to 1 day. The practice that made this change reduced its mean DNA rate from 7.8% to 3.9%.ConclusionForward booking time in days is the best predictor of practice DNA rates. Sharing appointment data produced a significant reduction in missed appointments, and behaviour change interventions with patients had a modest additional impact; in contrast, introducing structural change to the appointment system effectively reduced DNA rates. To reduce non-attendance, it appears that the appointment system needs to change, not the patient.

Heads and Tails of Earnings Management: Quantitative Analysis in Emerging Countries

Earnings management is a globally used tool for long-term profitable enterprises and for the apparatus of reduction of bankruptcy risk in developed countries. This phenomenon belongs to the integral and fundamental part of their business finance. However, this has still been lax in emerging countries. The models of detections of the existence of earnings management are based on discretionary accrual. The goal of this article is to detect the existence of earnings management in emerging countries by times series analysis. This econometric investigation uses the observations of earnings before interest and taxes of 1089 Slovak enterprises and 1421 Bulgarian enterprises in financial modelling. Our findings confirm the significant existence of earnings management in both analyzed countries, based on a quantitative analysis of unit root and stationarity. The managerial activities are purposeful, which is proven by the existence of no stationarity in the time series and a clear occurrence of the unit root. In addition, the results highlight the year 2014 as a significant milestone of change in the development of earnings management in both countries, based on homogeneity analyses. These facts identify significant parallels between Slovak and Bulgarian economics and business finance.

Business pattern and mini purse-seine fishing (pajeko) season in South Tobelo District, North Halmahera Regency, North Maluku Province

Title (Bahasa Indonesia): Pola usaha dan musim penangkapan mini purse-seine(pajeko) di Kecamatan Tobelo Selatan, Kabupaten Halmahera Utara, Provinsi Maluku Utara The study uses a descriptive method and was carried out for 5 months. Data collection covered primary and secondary data. Primary data was carried outthrough direct observation on production planning, production process, and control on the mini purse-seine fishing unit and through direct interviews with mini purse-seine owner and fishermen. Secondary datawas obtained from Marine and fisheries Service of North Halmahera. Literature study was conducted as well. The data were analyzed to find outthe business pattern practiced by mini purse-seine fishermen by usinginteractive model of analysis and time series analysis-based average percentage methodwas usedto get the fishing season.This study concluded that business pattern of fishermen in South Tobelo district was done by imposingthe operational cost on the investment owner in both peak and lowfishing seasons. Moreover, the profit sharing is divided by50% for townersand 50% for fishermen after operational cost, and 20% for the FAD if other FAD was used. The fishing season of the mini purse-seine in South Tobelo district occurrsin March, August and September, while the lowseason occursin January, February, June, November, and December.Penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif dan dilakukan selama 5 bulan. Pengumpulan data dilakukan baik pada data primer maupunsekunder. Data primer dilakukan dengan pengamatan langsung terhadap perencanaan produksi, proses produksi dan pengawasan produksi unit penangkapan pajekodan wawancara terhadap nelayan dan pemilik kapal pajeko. Data sekunder dikumpulkan dari Dinas Kelautan dan Perikanan Kabupaten Halmahera Utara disamping itu dilakukan juga study pustaka. Untuk mengetahui pola usaha yang dijalankan oleh nelayan pajekodigunakan interactive model of analysis. Untuk analisis pola musim penangkapan ikan menggunakan metode persentase pata-rata (The Average Percentage Methods) yang didasarkan pada Analisis runtun raktu (Times Series Analysis). Dari hasil Penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa pola usaha yang digunakan oleh nelayan di Kecamatan Tobelo Selatan dilakukan dengan membebankan biaya operasional pada pemilik baik musim puncak maupun musim paceklik tiba. Disampaing itu system bagi hasil dibagi 50% untuk pemilik dan 50% untuk nelayan setelah dikeluarkan biaya operasional dan 20% untuk rumpon apabila menggunakan rumpon milik orang lain. Musim penangkapan dengan pajekodi Kecamatan Tobelo Selatan terjadi pada bulan Maret, Agustus, dan September, sedangkan pada bulan Januari, Februari, Juni, November, sedangkan musim paceklik terjadi pada bulan Januari, Februari, November, dan Desember.

A Time Series Analysis of China’s Foreign Direct Investment on Senegal’s Agriculture

Since 2000 China has started to strengthen its agricultural co-operation with Africa in trade and other commercial activities. China has increased its agriculture investment in Africa, because of the rapid economic rise of China in many African developing countries. China's investment has developed and opened many opportunities against a backdrop of closer economic ties with many African countries and particularly in Senegal. The purpose of this study was to analyse the times series analysis impact of China's FDI in Senegal's agriculture. The study mainly used secondary data that are collected from the World Bank and IMF for 22 years between 1990 and 2012. The descriptive and econometric model was used to analyse the collected data. Although agricultural growth has increased in Senegal in recent years, food security remains a severe challenge. Despite international and local concerns, China's investment in Senegal in infrastructure and agricultural technology and training could facilitate agricultural growth in Senegal. A time series data is used to get the empirical results for our paper, and the estimation's results show that China's FDI is an important element in Senegal's agriculture will increase employment creation, high productivity, access to the finance and markets for smallholders, technology transfer enforcement of production standards, and farmers can access more to bank credit.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on the high altitude snow- and glacier-fed hydrological regimes of Astore and Hunza, the sub-catchments of Upper Indus Basin

Evaluation of the impacts of prevailing climate change on rivers and water resources is significantly important in order to successfully manage water resources, particularly in snow-fed and glacier-fed catchments. The basic aim of this research was to assess the impacts of climatic variability on Astore and Hunza river-flows by employing long-term in-situ hydro-meteorological data. Times-series analysis of high- and low-altitude station data revealed consistent summer cooling, and warming in winter and spring seasons in both Karakoram and western Himalayan basins of Hunza and Astore, respectively. The intensity of these changes was not found to be identical in both basins, i.e. Hunza depicts slightly higher summer cooling rates and slightly lower annual, winter and spring warming rates as compared to Astore. Subsequently, the significant increase in annual precipitation of Hunza was also not found to be identical with Astore precipitation, which shows only a slight increase of precipitation. Notwithstanding, comparable temperature trends were observed at both high- and low-altitude stations; however, on the contrary, precipitation shows a different pattern of behavior, i.e. significantly increased winter precipitation at high-altitude Astore stations was in contrast to the precipitation recorded by low-altitude stations. The study suggested that climate change is significantly influencing the characteristics and hydrological resources of this region.