scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of climate change on the high altitude snow- and glacier-fed hydrological regimes of Astore and Hunza, the sub-catchments of Upper Indus Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 479-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhaib Bin Farhan ◽  
Yinsheng Zhang ◽  
Adnan Aziz ◽  
Haifeng Gao ◽  
Yingzhao Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Low Altitude ◽  
Times Series Analysis

Abstract Evaluation of the impacts of prevailing climate change on rivers and water resources is significantly important in order to successfully manage water resources, particularly in snow-fed and glacier-fed catchments. The basic aim of this research was to assess the impacts of climatic variability on Astore and Hunza river-flows by employing long-term in-situ hydro-meteorological data. Times-series analysis of high- and low-altitude station data revealed consistent summer cooling, and warming in winter and spring seasons in both Karakoram and western Himalayan basins of Hunza and Astore, respectively. The intensity of these changes was not found to be identical in both basins, i.e. Hunza depicts slightly higher summer cooling rates and slightly lower annual, winter and spring warming rates as compared to Astore. Subsequently, the significant increase in annual precipitation of Hunza was also not found to be identical with Astore precipitation, which shows only a slight increase of precipitation. Notwithstanding, comparable temperature trends were observed at both high- and low-altitude stations; however, on the contrary, precipitation shows a different pattern of behavior, i.e. significantly increased winter precipitation at high-altitude Astore stations was in contrast to the precipitation recorded by low-altitude stations. The study suggested that climate change is significantly influencing the characteristics and hydrological resources of this region.

scholarly journals Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 191957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽  
Asif Khan ◽  
Tahir Ali Akbar ◽  
Quazi K. Hassan ◽  
Asim Jahangir Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

scholarly journals Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (33) ◽  
pp. 9222-9227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvan Ragettli ◽  
Walter W. Immerzeel ◽  
Francesca Pellicciotti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Change Impact

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

scholarly journals Modelling flow changes in potential climate change conditions – an example of the Kaczawa basin

2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
Leszek Kuchar ◽  
IWAŃSKI SŁAWOMIR ◽  
Leszek Jelonek ◽  
Wiwiana Szalińska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Data Generator ◽  
Flow Changes ◽  
Potential Climate Change

Abstract Climate change, regardless of the causes shaping its rate and direction, can have far-reaching environmental, economic and social impact. A major aspect that might be transformed as a result of climate change are water resources of a catchment. The article presents a possible method of predicting water resource changes by using a meteorological data generator and classical hydrological models. The assessment of water resources in a catchment for a time horizon of 30-50 years is based on an analysis of changes in annual runoff that might occur in changing meteorological conditions. The model used for runoff analysis was the hydrological rainfall-runoff NAM model. Daily meteorological data essential for running the hydrological model were generated by means of SWGEN model. Meteorological data generated for selected climate change scenarios (GISS, CCCM and GFDL) for the years 2030 and 2050 enabled analysing different variants of climate change and their potential effects. The presented results refer to potential changes in water resources of the Kaczawa catchment. It should be emphasized that the obtained results do not say which of the climate change scenarios is more likely, but they present the consequences of climate change described by these scenarios.

scholarly journals Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria – an approach based on climate and discharge station data

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 6881-6922 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Kormann ◽  
T. Francke ◽  
M. Renner ◽  
A. Bronstert
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Freezing Point ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Low Altitude ◽  
The One ◽  
Streamflow Trends

Abstract. The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterised by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from high-altitude to low-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At mid-altitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. These trends were most probably caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at high-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at low-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To verify these theories, we attributed the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed the trends on a daily basis, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOY) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, it was confirmed that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt and earlier snow melt. However, further research is needed to explicitly determine which processes related to positive temperature trends lead to the summertime streamflow decreases.

scholarly journals Evaluation of hydrological response under future climate change by revising meteorological data in the source region of the Yangtze River, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
Haoyu Jin ◽  
Pan Wu ◽  
Wenjun Xia ◽  
Ruida Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Data Correction

Abstract The source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR) is located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The natural environment is hash, and the hydrological and meteorological stations are less distributed, making the observed data are relatively scarce. In order to overcome the impact of lack of data, the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) was used to correct the meteorological data, to make the data more closer to the real distribution on the SRYR surface. This paper used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to verify interpolation effect. Since the SRYR is an important water resource protection area, have a great significance to study the hydrological response under future climate change. The Back Propagation (BP) neural network algorithm was used to integrate data extracted from the six Global Climate Models (GCMs), and then the SWAT model was used to predict runoff changes in the future status. The results show that the CMFD data set has a high precision in the SRYR, and can be used for meteorological data correction. After the meteorological data correction, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency increased from 0.64 to 0.70. Under the future climate change, the runoff in the SRYR shows a decreasing trend, and the distribution of runoff during the year changes greatly. This reflects the amount of water resources in the SRYR will be decreased, which will brings challenges to water resources management in the SRYR.

scholarly journals Modelling climate change impact on water resources of the Upper Indus Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamal H. Ougahi ◽  
Mark E. J. Cutler ◽  
Simon J. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Abstract Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall and glacier melt, leading to shifts in the seasonality of river flows. Here, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) and their multi-model mean to estimate the potential impact of climate change on water balance components in sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming of above 6 °C relative to baseline (1974–2004) is projected for the UIB by the end of the century (2070–2100), but the spread of annual precipitation projections among GCMs is large (+16 to −28%), and even larger for seasonal precipitation (+91 to −48%). Compared to the baseline, an increase in summer precipitation (RCP8.5: +36.7%) and a decrease in winter precipitation were projected (RCP8.5: −16.9%), with an increase in average annual water yield from the nival–glacial regime and river flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during winter and spring could substantially affect the seasonal river flows, with important implications for water supplies.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change and anthropogenic interventions on natural vis-à-vis human resources in Kashmir, India – An overview

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 489-493
Author(s):  
Peerzada Ishtiyak ◽  
Mohan Reddy ◽  
Shiv Panse ◽  
Irfan Wani ◽  
Quadri Javeed Ahmad Peer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Dry Land ◽  
The World

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges the world is facing today and it has the potential to create havoc with the agrarian livelihoods across the globe. Therefore, this paper attempts to explain the probable impacts of human induced climate change on natural resources in Kashmir, India. An ample amount of literature was reviewed meticulously to ascertain the impacts of climatic variability on natural resources vis-a-vis agriculture, biodiversity and water bodies as well as other common issues related to human resources in Kashmir. Loss of certain indigenous food varieties (i.e. nick cheena), reduction in natural forest cover (less than 11%) and loss of important water resources has aggravated the already dilapidated situation in this most vulnerable state of India. Scientific evidences revealed that there will be more devastating climatic effects on natural resources in Kashmir- India, which will fall disproportionately on poor communities, particularly dry land farmers, forest dwellers and fishermen of the state.

scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate and land-use change on flow regime variations in upper Indus basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Haleem ◽  
Afed Ullah Khan ◽  
Sohail Ahmad ◽  
Mansoor Khan ◽  
Fayaz Ahmad Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Runoff Depth

Abstract Investigating the effects of climate and land-use changes on surface runoff is critical for water resources management. The majority of studies focused on projected climate change effects on surface runoff, while neglecting future land-use change. Therefore, the main aim of this article is to discriminate the impacts of projected climate and land-use changes on surface runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) through the lens of the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Future scenarios of the land-use and climate changes are predicted using cellular automata artificial neural network and four bias-corrected general circulation models, respectively. The historical record (2000–2013) was divided into the calibration period (2000–2008) and the validation period (2009–2013). The simulated results demonstrated that the SWAT model performed well. The results obtained from 2000 to 2013 show that climate change (61.61%) has a higher influence on river runoff than land-use change (38.39%). Both climate and land-use changes are predicted to increase future runoff depth in this basin. The influence of climate change (12.76–25.92%) is greater than land-use change (0.37–1.1%). Global weather data has good applicability for simulating hydrological responses in the region where conventional gauges are unavailable. The study discusses that both climate and land-use changes impact runoff depth and concluded some suggestions for water resources managers to bring water environment sustainability.

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