A New Agent-Based Model Provides Insight Into Assumptions in Modeling Forest Management Under Deep Uncertainty

ContextExploratory modeling in forestry uses a variety of approaches to study forest management questions. One key assumption that every approach makes is about the degree of deep uncertainty—the lack of knowledge required for making an informed decision—that future forest managers will face. This assumption can strongly influence simulation results and the conclusions drawn from them, but is rarely studied.ObjectivesOur objective was to measure the degree of deep uncertainty within a forest management simulation to compare alternative modeling approaches and improve understanding of when a specific approach should be applied.MethodsWe first developed a method for measuring the degree of deep uncertainty assumed by approaches to modeling forest management. Next, we developed a new extension to the LANDIS-II model, the SOSIEL Harvest Extension, which simulates alternative approaches to modeling forest management. Finally, we applied the new method and extension to comparing three alternative approaches to modeling forest management in Michigan.ResultsThe degrees of deep uncertainty varied substantially among the three modeling approaches. There is also an overall negative relationship between the degree of deep uncertainty an approach assumes a forest manager will face and the level of flexibility the approach assumes a manager will have in responding to forest change.ConclusionsQuantifying the deep uncertainty inherent in simulated forest management and comparing it across models provides an opportunity to better understand its sources and investigate differences in the assumptions made by alternative modeling approaches.

Birdwatching Track: Peluang Konservasi Burung di RPH Tambak Ngargoyoso Karanganyar Jawa Tengah

Resort Pemangku Hutan (Forest Manager Resort) or RPH Tambak is one of the forests managed by Indonesian State Forestry Enterprise in the northern part of Lawu Mountain, Surakarta. RPH Tambak located in the Berjo village, in Ngargoyoso, Central Java. This area offers ecotourism attraction for locals and international tourists. The management of forest becomes the main focus with involvement from the locals and stakeholders. This area is a potential area for avian conservation although this area is still relatively unknown. Because of its virgin forest and natural landscape, RPH Tambak has the potential to become a birdwatching spot. The aim of this research is to gather data about local avian species, to interpret the initial data for ecotourism, and to make a birdwatching track. The research methods used in this research are by tracking, and surveying the local avian species to create a roadmap for birdwatching track. The finding of this research is there are 40 species of birds from 25 families living along as cosmopolite and rarely in the birdwatching track. The birdwatching track has 5 posts with different specifications (vegetation, altitude, and tracking time) and tracking distance to make various contact with local avian species. The birdwatching track will be maintained by locals that has the access to the peak of the Lawu Mountain.

The origins of prescribed burning in Scandinavian forestry: the seminal role of Joel Wretlind in the management of fire-dependent forests

In Sweden, prescribed burning was trialed as early as the 1890s for forest regeneration purposes. However, the origins of prescribed burning in Sweden are commonly attributed to Joel Efraim Wretlind, forest manager in the State Forest district of Malå, Västerbotten County, from 1920 to 1952. To more fully understand the role he played in the development of prescribed burning and the extent of his burning, we examined historical records from the State Forest Company’s archive and Wretlind’s personal archive. The data showed that at least 11,208 ha was burned through prescribed burning between 1921 and 1970, representing 18.7% of the Malå state-owned forest area. Wretlind thus created a new forestry-driven fire regime, reaching, during peak years, extents close to historical fire regimes before the fire suppression era, and much higher than present-day burning. His use of prescribed fire to regenerate forests served as a guide for many other forest managers, spreading to all of northern Sweden during the 1950–1960s. Our analysis of Wretlind’s latest accounts also shows how he stood against the evolutions of modern forestry to defend a forestry system based on the reproduction of natural processes, such as fire.

Selection of Models for Above-Ground Biomass in a Eucalyptus urograndis Stand

The quantification of biomass is an important tool that helps the forest manager to define the course of the enterprise and the best management techniques. In view of this situation, the objective of the present study was to perform the modeling of above - ground biomass in the different components in Eucalyptus urograndis stands at 4.5 years of age. The stand is located in the south of Brazil, municipality of São Gabriel. Four plots of 577.5 m² were installed and all DBH and heights of 20% of the trees were measured. Four diameter classes were defined, with 3 trees being felled in each of them. All the biomass was weighed in leaves, branches, bark and wood and through samples the moisture content in each component was determined. The modeling showed reliability of 96% for wood estimation and biomass total. The total biomass was 65 Mg ha-1, of these, 72% of wood. The modeling with stepwise procedure presented good distribution of the residues. Through the easily obtained variables such as DBH and height it is possible to determine the volume of biomass accurately.

Incertitude et pilotage des écosystèmes forestiers (essai)

Uncertainty and steering forest ecosystems (essay) Uncertainties are not just one element of managing forest ecosystems; they influence every dimension and are at the heart of the extraordinary complexity of this activity. This fact leads us to review the approaches and tools of forest management through the lens of uncertainty. This essay looks at this question from the perspective of three major types of uncertainty: 1) uncertainty regarding the definition of management objectives in the very long term; 2) uncertainties regarding the disturbances which can affect forest management and 3) uncertainties regarding ecosystems and their dynamics. Studying these three types of uncertainty provides food for thought leading us towards dynamic and adaptive management of forest ecosystems. From the start, the relative weight of the different uncertainties must be estimated, and focused on the field of action which is available in practice to the forest manager. Then, the rapid progress of recent years in remote sensing and IT-based decision support tools makes possible a dynamic and adaptive ecosystem management. Finally, putting in place a continuous learning process, through appropriate measures and support systems, allows us to refine even more our understanding of ecosystems.

Entre acteurs et experts, la place de l'aménagiste forestier aujourd'hui | Between actors and experts: the position of a modern forest manager

How to make forest planning more sustainable? Some theories of sustainable management (which ultimately strive for arranging things so that our successors will approve of us in the future) propose relying on two pillars: a good knowledge of ecosystems and an increased participation of citizens. What room is left for forest planners in this new framework? The essay tries to show that office holders should fulfil a double role of «activators» with various groups of citizens (which we call «actors») and «mediators» with various specialists of ecosystems(which we call «experts»). We propose some thoughts and discuss some experiences pointing in this direction.

Certification of sustainable forest management systems: The importance of field verification

Certification requires an independent third party verification, commonly called an audit, to ensure that all components of a certification standard have been met. Field visits are an essential element to the Certification audit; however, the degree of field verification during the audit may vary depending on the objectives of the Sustainable Forest Management System. A key issue will be determining the proper balance between systems evaluation and field verification. Field audits establish credibility with the forest manager, the public and customers in addition to providing opportunities for training and public participation.

Price Risk Analysis for Private Nonindustrial Forest Management

Portfolio analysis techniques can be used to quantify risk and return impacts of including forestry investments in a diversified portfolio. We suggest that similar techniques can also be used to evaluate price risk of investments in managing individual forests and stands. By observing annual price variability for various timber species and products, a forest manager can shift the timber growing-stock species mix toward a desired combination of risk and return. Using Indiana price data, we develop sample species mixes displaying different levels of risk. North. J. Appl. For. 9(2):55-57.