scholarly journals The Risk-Taking Behaviour of Tunisian Banks in the Post-Revolution Era: A Panel ARDL-PMG Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Zied SAADAOUI ◽  
Salma MOKDADI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Panel Ardl

This study investigates the long-term determinants of capital buffers and risk-taking adjustment by focusing on a sample of listed Tunisian commercial banks. This research uses hand-collected semi-annual data. The panel autoregressive distributed lags technique is used to control for unit root processes and to check for long-term determinants of capital and risk-taking adjustment. The empirical findings prove the existence of a moral hazard and procyclical behaviour of Tunisian banks in response to capital requirements. However, some results indicate that capital standards are still an important prudential tool for ensuring the robustness of Tunisian banks. There have been no previous studies focusing on this issue in the context of the Tunisian banking system in the turbulent post-revolution era. This paper innovates by assuming that a set of bank-specific, macroeconomic and regulatory variables exert a long-term rather than a short-term influence on capital buffers and risk-taking. The research does not consider a possible long-term simultaneous relationship between capital and risk-taking. The sample could be extended if data were available. Tunisian banks are advised to diversify their sources of revenues and to thoroughly revise their business models in order to become less dependent on revenues from traditional intermediation activities and to reduce the procyclicality of the banking system.

Shareholder risk-taking incentives in the presence of contingent capital

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Fatouh ◽  
Ayowande A. McCunn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Conversion Rates ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to present a model of shareholders’ willingness to exert effort to reduce the likelihood of bank distress and the implications of the presence of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds in the liabilities structure of a bank. Design/methodology/approach This study presents a basic model about the moral hazard surrounding shareholders willingness to exert effort that increases the likelihood of a bank’s success. This study uses a one-shot game and so do not capture the effects of repeated interactions. Findings Consistent with the existing literature, this study shows that the direction of the wealth transfer at the conversion of CoCo bonds determines their impact on shareholder risk-taking incentives. This study also finds that “anytime” CoCos (CoCo bonds trigger-able anytime at the discretion of managers) have a minor advantage over regular CoCo bonds, and that quality of capital requirements can reduce the risk-taking incentives of shareholders. Practical implications This study argues that shareholders can also use manager-specific CoCo bonds to reduce the riskiness of the bank activities. The issuance of such bonds can increase the resilience of individual banks and the whole banking system. Regulators can use restrictions on conversion rates and/or requirements on the quality of capital to address the impact of CoCo bonds issuance on risk-taking incentives. Originality/value To model the risk-taking incentives, authors generally modify the asset processes to introduce components that reflect asymmetric information between CoCo holders and shareholders and/or managers. This paper follows a simpler method similar to that of Holmström and Tirole (1998).

scholarly journals Will the COVID-19 pandemic lead to a tsunami of suicides? A Swedish nationwide analysis of historical and 2020 data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Rück ◽  
David Mataix-Cols ◽  
Kinda Malki ◽  
Mats Adler ◽  
Oskar Flygare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Influenza Pandemics ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Media

ABSTRACTBackgroundVarious surveys have documented a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population’s mental health. There is widespread concern about a surge of suicides, but evidence supporting a link between global pandemics and suicide is very limited. Using historical data from the three major influenza pandemics of the 20th century, and recently released data from the first half of 2020, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.MethodsAnnual data on influenza death rates and suicide rates were extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden from 1910-1978, covering the three 20th century pandemics, and from Statistics Sweden for the period from January to June of each year during 2000-2020. COVID-19 death data were available for the first half of 2020. We implemented non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term effect of increases and decreases in influenza death rates on suicide rates during 1910-1978. Analyses were done separately for men and women. Descriptive analyses were used for the available 2020 data.FindingsBetween 1910-1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides. The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women. Suicide rates in January-June 2020 revealed a slight decrease compared to the corresponding rates in January-June 2019 (relative decrease by −1.2% among men and −12.8% among women).InterpretationWe found no evidence of short or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics or during the first six months of 2020 (when the first wave of COVID-19 occurred). Concerns about a substantial increase of suicides may be exaggerated. The media should be cautious when reporting news about suicides during the current pandemic.

Mean reverting leverage policy in China: theory and evidence from industrial and sectorial level unit root analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajid ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chinese Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
Stationary Behavior

Purpose This study aims to apply unit root test to investigate the behavior of Chinese firms toward their leverage policy. The study is based on two influential and competing theories of capital structure. Design/methodology/approach This study applies unit root test to investigate the behavior of Chinese firms toward their leverage policy. The study is based on two influential and competing theories of capital structure. Trade off theory advocates that firms have a target level of leverage ratio and that firms try to achieve that optimal leverage ratio, whereas pecking order theory argues that firms have no target level of leverage and that they follow a specific pattern of leverage. For this purpose, this study applies a Fisher type unit root test to 12,808 firm level observations. The data are unbalanced and cover a period from 1991 to 2014. Findings The results reveal the presence of a stationary behavior across short-term, long-term and total leverage policies. For short-term leverage policy, 21 per cent firms show stationary behavior, while for long-term, 20 per cent show a targeting behavior; for the total leverage policy 17 per cent of firms are found to follow a tradeoff model. To make the findings more interesting sample was further classified into profit and loss making firms. The study finds that loss making firms do not follow a target level of leverage in China. Furthermore, unit root is applied to all firms before and after crises-2008. It is revealed that stationary behavior is more prevalent before crises-2008. Originality/value This study is highly important from the point of view that it quantifies firms into distinct categories of following specific model of capital structure. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the findings of this study add to current research knowledge about Chinese firms with respect to adjustment behavior toward a target capital structure.

scholarly journals Management and Organization Issues of the Banking Sector in Kyrgyzstan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celaleddin Serinkan
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
General Information ◽  
Senior Management ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Measurement Tools ◽  
Staff Recruitment ◽  
And Training

The banking system is an integral part of contemporary economy. There are many reasons behind the success of the banks. One of the most important of these reasons is the development of effective management and organization in the banks. This study has been applied to commercial banks in Kyrgyzstan banking sector. The aim of this study is to identify the problems of commercial banks in Kyrgyzstan and to contribute to new work on their solution. The main issues such as planning, organization, decision making, human resources and training related to management and organizational problems of the enterprises in the study are discussed. Besides the general information about the research, the research method, sampling and measurement tools are given. Findings from the questionnaires were evaluated on the percentage (%) and frequency (f). In the results obtained, it was observed that commercial banks were making short-term plans and staff recruitment was dependent on management. It has been understood that senior management does not resort to employees' opinions when making a decision.

scholarly journals Regulação ineficaz para forçar alongamento: O caso da Previdência Complementar Aberta no Brasil

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Luiz Guilherme Carpizo ◽  
Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Portfolio Allocation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Despite the fall in the interest rate observed in Brazil in recent decades, and specific regulations on the private pension segment that encourage long-term risk taking, institutions in this segment appear to be considerably sensitive to short-term factors, while avoiding exposure to long-term risk factors. With portfolio allocation data from large entities, we implemented a VAR model to evaluate the impact of interest rate changes on portfolio management decisions and performed a counterfactual analysis to define the causal effect of regulation on additional risk taking. Results indicate that interest rate increases lead to significant and persistent reduction of investment in riskier assets with longer maturities, while the implemented regulation was not able to force greater risk-taking by institutions, in addition to generating distortions in segments of the Brazilian financial market.</p>

scholarly journals Macroprudential regulation as part of the Mexican policy toolkit

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Carlos Alberto Zarazúa Juárez
Keyword(s):  
Banking System ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Macroprudential Regulation ◽  
Debt Level ◽  
Bank Capital Requirements

The objective of this work is to assess the effect of implementing countercyclical macroprudential regulation in Mexico with the objective of verify whether this type of policy is welfare-improving. Using a DSGE model, two kinds of macroprudential rules are tested: countercyclical bank capital requirements and countercyclical loan-to-value ratios. Results suggest that these rules are welfare-improving and avoid the formation of credit bubbles as well as facilitate loans in the presence of macroeconomic crises. Results suggest that the use of countercyclical rules is effective in keeping the debt level according to its long-term equilibrium. This paper presents a theoretical framework to analyze banking regulation for policy purposes and is the first attempt to analyze countercyclical regulation in Mexico using a microfounded model. Results can be used to rationalize the use of macroprudential tools during the COVID‑19 pandemic given the current interventions in the Mexican banking system.

scholarly journals Trends in the development of the banking system in the Far North of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 13041
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Pushkareva ◽  
Mikhail Pushkarev
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Far North ◽  
The Russian Federation

In this paper, the author summarizes the main problems that have to be solved by regional commercial banks and, in particular, banks in the Far North and equivalent territories in the current political situation and conditions of economic sanctions. The country's banking system is not adequate to the needs of the national economy and is unable to provide resources for the country's modernization. The ability of banks to finance the needs of the real sector is significantly constrained by the lack of long-term and cheap financial resources from the banks themselves.

scholarly journals DOES THE PROCYCLICALITY OF CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AFFECT FINANCIAL STABILITY IN CEMAC?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 17-37
Author(s):  
Djimoudjiel Djekonbé ◽  
Ningaye Paul ◽  
Nafé Daba
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Factorization Method ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Discretionary Monetary Policy

The objective of this article is to analyze the effects of procyclical variations of the capital requirements for risk coverage on financial stability in the CEMAC[1]. In order to achieve this objective, we have specified and estimated a panel VAR model using the structural factorization method on quarterly Central Bank data over the period 2006-2017. Firstly, the results show that procyclical capital adjustments in the CEMAC region lead to short-term financial instability through the contraction of credit to the private sector. Secondly, despite the low level of financial development, the effects maintained by the adjustment of monetary policy instruments in the short term remain significant on price stability. Finally, in the long term, the procyclicality of regulatory capital makes it possible to revive economic activity and guarantee financial stability. These results lead us to recommend the adoption of a more discretionary monetary policy so as to make more procyclical the capital requirement.     [1] Economic Community of Central African States comprising Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

scholarly journals Development of Regional Commercial Banks in Digital Economy: Risks and Opportunities

2021 ◽  
pp. 181-193
Author(s):  
Natalia Simaeva ◽  
◽  
Inna Ryabova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
The State ◽  
Banking Competition ◽  
Regional Bank ◽  
Regional Banks ◽  
Banking Credit

The article is devoted to the analysis of the activity of regional commercial banks. The purpose of this article is to identify risks and prospects for the development of regional commercial banks in the digital economy. The author explores the concept of a regional bank, analyzes the peculiarities of the activities of regional banks in modern conditions of increasing banking competition. The article analyzes the state and trends of the development of the banking regional sector from the point of view of efficiency increase of their activities. It is shown that the number of regional banks is constantly declining, and a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation do not have any longer in the structure of their regional banking system banking credit organizations chartered in their territory as a legal entity. The authors concluded that the development of regional banks can be efficient only through the qualitative growth of each individual regional bank, since in quantitative terms this sector of the Russian banking systems will only decrease. As an example the activity of Rostov bank Tsent-Invest and the regional bank of the Republic of Tatarstan Ak Bars Bank are shown, which occupied certain niches in the Russian banking system and fully compete with foreign banks. To identify and assess the current risks of the activity of regional banks specific characteristics of the digital transformation of the banking industry are determined. As the main risks of development, the authors identified the following ones: risk of increased banking competition, on the one hand, and the risk of monopolization of the banking market, on the other; risk of underfunding of financial technologies; information risks and cyber risks; risks of insufficient financial literacy of consumers of banking products and services; risks of customer base reduction. As opportunities for the development of regional banks the use of remote banking services, allowing to attract new customers, expansion of participation in the state programs, emergence of opportunities for the introduction and development of new business models, in particular ESG-banking are identified. The Bank of Russia can provide certain support for the development of regional banks in the context of digital transformation and increasing banking competition by creating and developing nationwide banking infrastructure platforms.

scholarly journals Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and Commercial Banks Earnings in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-214
Author(s):  
Uzah K. C. ◽  
Clinton A.M. ◽  
Kpagih L.
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

This study examined the interest rates channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria. The objective was to investigate the extent to which the interest rates channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism affects the earnings capacity of the quoted commercial banks. Time series data were sourced from annual financial reports of the commercial banks and the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin’s various issues. Earnings measures such as earnings per share and earnings before interest and tax were modeled as the function of Monetary Policy Rate, Prime Lending Rate, Short-term Savings Rate, Long-term Saving Rate and Maximum Lending Rate. The Ordinary Least Square method of Regression Analysis was used to estimate the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test and Vector Error Correction Test were used to determine the dynamic relationship among the variables. Findings showed that short-term and long-term savings rates have negative effects while monetary policy rate, maximum lending rate and prime lending rate have positive effects on the earnings capacity of Nigerian commercial banks. Therefore, we recommend that interest rate policies should be integrated with the earning objectives of the commercial banks.

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