Christians, Muslims and Traditional Worshippers in Nigeria: Estimating the Relative Proportions from Eleven Nationally Representative Social Surveys

Background The absence of census data on religious identification in Nigeria since 1963 leaves much uncertainty about the most basic religious composition of the country. It is generally accepted that identification with traditional worship declined over the middle of the twentieth century as identification with Islam and Christianity increased, leaving these the two dominant religious groups in the country. The current relative proportions of Christians and Muslims has often been the subject of conjecture, guesswork and assertion, as have trajectories of growth or decline. Purpose Where researchers have used sound data to address this question, they have often drawn on a single survey, or, if on multiple data sources, it is unclear how the different estimates the data provides are reconciled. This paper seeks to address these gaps to construct a better picture of the religious composition of Nigeria, and to consider the trajectory of change. Methods This study presents data from 11 nationally representative surveys of adults conducted between 1990 and 2018. Surveys include four waves of the World Values Survey, five waves of the Afrobarometer survey, The Pew Tolerance and Tension survey, and the Nigerian General Household Survey of 2010. Results The results show that identification with Christianity is likely to have been the majority among Nigerian adults through this period. Evidence suggests that identification with Christianity was still growing in the first half of the 1990s, to a high point of 69% of the adult population. This growth was associated with the tail of the decline of identification with traditional worship. Thereafter identification with Christianity has declined in proportional terms as identification with Islam has increased. Evidence is consistent with literature that suggests that this change is driven by differences in fertility, rather than by religious identity switching. Conclusion and Implications Trends presented suggest that the Muslim-identified population is likely on track to have become an absolute majority of Nigerian adults, possibly within a decade with widespread implications, including for electoral politics.

Analysing the Determinants of Poverty among Female-Headed Households: The Case of South Africa

Poverty remains a critical and complex phenomenon in developing countries, South Africa included. Over the years, poverty has escalated significantly, particularly in Africa, while it has declined in most developed regions. The worsening statistics in Africa have raised concerns of a lack of understanding of poverty among policymakers and governments. In South Africa, poverty has been increasing, with more than 50 percent of households living in poverty. Additionally, approximately 26 percent of females live in extreme poverty, while at the same time the country is experiencing a growing trend of female-headed households continually identified as vulnerable to the indignities of poverty compared to male-headed households. Although poverty in South Africa has been studied extensively, existing literature shows that it is still a debatable topic, since the dynamics have not improved much, but rather worsened in recent years particularly post-apartheid. Using the 2018 general household survey data with a sample of 19 219 observations collected by Statistics South Africa, the primary objective of the study is to examine the determinants of poverty among female-headed households in South Africa. The study uses the following statistical methods: descriptive statistics, cross-tabulations and a binary logistic regression. The estimated results show that factors such as education level, employment status, age, gender, race, household size and marital status determine the poverty status of female-headed households. Females experience higher levels of poverty when compared to their male counterpart using the upper bound poverty line. Keywords: Poverty, household, female-headed household, male-headed households, South Africa

Implementation of online questionnaires in the General Household Survey in Hong Kong

The General Household Survey (GHS) of Hong Kong is a monthly household survey on labour force characteristics and household income. Traditionally, data collection was conducted via face-to-face interviews through field visits and computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). In July 2017, the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) introduced an online questionnaire (OQ) in the GHS to enhance its services to survey respondents. Considering the importance of GHS statistics, the tight monthly survey cycle and the complexities involved in adding a new data collection mode, a phase-by-phase approach was adopted with close monitoring of data quality of the survey estimates. With satisfactory trial results, the OQ was fully implemented in the GHS in January 2019. Being a convenient and privacy-assured channel, the OQ helps entice sampled households to respond to the GHS and increases the contact rate of those households who are more difficult to reach by the conventional data collection methods. During COVID-19 when face-to-face interviews had to be adjourned, the OQ provided a powerful channel for data collection. With targeted messages appealing for response by OQ sent to sampled households in a more proactive manner, the take-up rate of the OQ increased by as much as 10 percentage points, partly compensating the loss due to the suspension of field visits such that monthly labour force statistics could continue to be published during the epidemic. The paper was prepared under the kind mentorship of Ms Lisa Bersales, former Chief Statistician of the Philippines.

What Drives Households’ Payment for Waste Disposal and Recycling Behaviours? Empirical Evidence from South Africa’s General Household Survey

Safeguarding the environment and its citizens’ health remains one of the key policy priorities of the governments of many developing and emerging countries. Using the 2017 General Household Survey (GHS) dataset, this study examines the driving factors affecting households’ recycling behaviour and payment for waste disposal in South Africa. The methods of data analysis were based on descriptive statistics and a Bivariate Probit regression model. The descriptive statistics results indicate that there are 56.29% male-headed and 43.71% female headed households, with an average age of 49 years. In addition, the study shows that 89.97% of household heads had formal education with a mean monthly income of 11,099.07 ZAR/650.504 USD. The study also revealed that 22% of the households sampled had access to social grants. The results from the Bivariate Probit regression model show that household’s income, access to social grants, formal educational attainment and the age of the household were significant (p < 0.01) driving factors affecting households’ recycling behaviour and payment for waste disposal. The study concludes that the households’ socio-economic factors affect their recycling behaviour and willingness to pay for waste management in South Africa. Actions targeted at poverty alleviation and environmental sensitization programmes are key for facilitating environmental conservation behaviours of households in South Africa in order to achieve the environmental sustainability Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of the United Nations.

The Influence of Racial Differences in the Demand for Healthcare in South Africa: A Case of Public Healthcare

The study sought to analyse the influence of racial differences in the demand for public healthcare in South Africa, using the 2018 General Household Survey (GHS) data. This was completed to understand if race still plays a role in access to healthcare in post-apartheid South Africa. Logistic regression analysis revealed that race significantly explained the variance in demand for public healthcare, with White populations having the lowest probability of demand for public healthcare compared to other races. Consequently, the study noted that racial differences still play a critical role in affording one access to healthcare after assessing the situation obtaining in public healthcare. Therefore, the study recommends that the government of South Africa should create policies that encourage equal access to basic services in addressing racial inequality in the country.

Are self-reported health inequalities widening by income? An analysis of British pseudo birth cohorts born, 1920–1970

IntroductionThe health of the British population has been shown to be worsening by self-reported health and improving by self-reported limiting illness for those born before and after 1945. Little is known about the inequality in health difference across British birth cohorts by income.MethodsRepeated cross-sections from the British General Household Survey, 1979–2011, are used to create pseudo birth cohorts born, 1920–1970, and their gender stratified, age-adjusted limiting illness and self-rated health (SRH) are estimated by household income tertiles. Absolute and relative differences between the poorest and richest income groups are reported.ResultsAbsolute inequalities in limiting illness between the richest and poorest households have doubled in women and increased by one and a half times in men for those born in 1920–1922 compared with those born in 1968–1970. Relative inequalities in limiting illness increased by a half in women and doubled in men. Absolute inequalities in SRH between the richest and poorest households increased by almost half in women and more than half in men and relative inequalities increased by 18% in women and 14% in men for those born in 1920–1922 compared with those born in 1968–1970.ConclusionInequalities in self-reported health at the same age by household income have widened for successively later-born British cohorts.

Informal–formal workers' transition in Nigeria: A livelihood analysis

This study evaluates the effects of the informal sector on Nigerian workers’ livelihoods and analyses workers’ transitions within the informal sector and between informal and formal employment. A binary logit model is applied to General Household Survey panel data for the periods 2010/11, 2012/13, and 2015/16. We find that informal employment has the greatest impact on workers’ livelihoods in terms of earnings. Results also indicate the existence of a high level of dynamic transition of workers within different types of informal employment. Our results further indicate that both self-employed and wage employed informal workers are likely to transit to formal employment, the likelihood being higher for the upper-tier informal wage employed. While informally employed workers have a very high chance of transiting to formal employment, formal workers have a much lower chance of transiting to informal employment. The policy implication of our results is the need to create better working conditions for informal workers.